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Portis for 2000 Yards...article I wrote


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I wrote this for my fox sports blog....thought someone might want to read it...

The link is the article title below...

The Next 2000 Yard Running Back in the NFL is...

May 07, 2006 | 9:33PM - Edit | Delete

Clinton Portis of the Washington Redskins...

Of course I don't think Portis is the only back that could reach 2000 yards next. However, compared to the rest of the backs in the NFL his chances are pretty good, and considering he is only 24, he may be one of the very few current backs in the NFL with a chance to approach Emmitt Smith's record of 18,355 career rushing yards.

Before I get carried away with why I feel Portis could approach Emmitt's record, I will address why I feel Portis could be the next running back to reach 2000 yards. The biggest reason for his chance at 2000 are the additions the Redskins have made on offense, starting with new Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders. Last year Larry Johnson amassed 1750 yards in just nine starts, and would have most likely reached 2000 with ease had he started the whole year. Although the Chiefs have a very good offensive line, their offensive success the past few seasons is because of Al Saunders. With even more weapons in Washington than he had in Kansas City, Saunders will be create more through the passing game, allowing for Portis to have more open holes than ever before.

With receiving threats Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randle El, and David Patten occupying opposing defensive coordinators thoughts, it will be very hard for teams to put eight or nine in the box and focus on the run game. For the past two seasons Portis has been able to run for a combined 2,831 yards, and that is without many receiving threats to worry other teams. The first year Portis was here the passing game was beyond terrible and everyone knew what the Redskins were going to try and do. Last season two receiving threats emerged and made it a little more difficult for opponents, but next season Portis will have more help than he has ever had in his career. With teams unable to focus on one aspect of the offense, Portis will be able to get more yards on less carries, allowing his body to take less of a beating than it has the past two years. By the end of last season Portis was worn down, physically beaten from the long season, next year Clinton won't be required to carry the whole offense, and will be able to stay fresh for the majority of the season.

With all the talent on the offense, and great coaching, Portis will be able to challenge for 2000 yards and may even reach that goal. Washington Redskins Running Back's Coach, Ernest Byner, has already stated it is Clinton's goal next year to reach 2000 yards. While it may be every running back's goal to reach that mark, he is one of the few backs with a real chance to do it. For Portis to reach this goal, he will have to average 30.25 yards more per game than he did last year, when he ran for 1,516. A very reachable number for a talented running back on a good offense with great coaching.

Now on to an even bolder statement, Portis will challenge Emmitt Smith's record. Before I am called a homer for this one, I would like to say that I have been claiming this since he was a Bronco and ran for 3,099 yards in his first two seasons. Little did I know he would soon be coming to Washington in a blockbuster trade.

I know that this is a very tough record to reach, and Portis will have to be very consistent and even improve, but out of all the running backs in the NFL he has perhaps the best chance to do it. Through his first four seasons in the NFL Clinton Portis has run for a total of 5,930 yards. Through Emmitt Smith's first four years he ran for 5,699 yards. At the end of their fourth seasons, both Portis and Smith were 24 years old. Emmitt's first season is the difference here, as he ran for only 937 yards and Portis ran for 1,508. Portis has a very good team and the opportunity for big time yards should be ther. If he can stay healthy and have a lengthy career, two very big IF's, he will have an opportunity to close in on Emmitt's record and possibly even break it.

Now wouldn't that be ashame, A Redskin taking a record from a Cowboy. I'm not saying either of these predictions will actually come to pass. But what I am saying is this....keep your eye on Clinton Portis and the rest of the Washington Redskins.

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Good read. It's one of those, "I can't :hump:ing wait for the season to start" articles.

If Larry Johnson has a long, healthy career, and he runs like he's shown he can, I think he also has a shot at Emmitt. Saying anyone has a shot at Emmitt is a bold statement, though.

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nice read...if he can get 2000 yards this season or even 1700 I will agree that he has a decent shot at catching emmit but not until then. He has to prove he can keep it going. I think he'll have about 1500 but his yards per carry will go up because there are so many more weapons to create more space for him. Anyway hes a great back and it would be nice to take that record out of cowgirl nation!

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Good read I guess, this is one of those articles where everyone knows all this information already but its good to get it fresh in you're mind again. :)

Well I orginally posted it on my foxsports.com blog, and they are not all Redskin fans, most aren't. So it isnt new to them

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If I was a betting man, I would put my money on Larry Johnson. Al Saunders was an important factor of KC success, but its the players that makes plays. Al Saunders didnt coach LJ on how to break tackles, or when to cutback, etc.

Clinton has not shown here to be able to break tackles or juke someone out of there shoes to get the extra yards. He runs hard and everything, but also our OL is not as good as KC's

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Clinton has not shown here to be able to break tackles or juke someone out of there shoes to get the extra yards. He runs hard and everything, but also our OL is not as good as KC's

It's true that he's not the greatest at breaking tackles. Once Portis gets a clean hit he usually gets taken down... but only after lowering his shoulders and plowing forward for a few extra yards. Larry Johnson, on the other hand, will flat out bowl guys over if he has to.

In the open field, however, it's an entirely different story. CP can blaze past the majority of players in the league if you give him space and is not an easy target if he has a few yards to maneuver around you (veritably impossible to hit if no one else is helping you). LJ doesn't quite have the same speed and, although remarkably agile for his size (he is a bit bigger than Clinton), is not quite as good at getting through the secondary without additional help.

Essentially, the two are about on the same level for different reasons. The only thing that separates them is Al Saunders and blocking... and obviously that is all changing this season. On all of LJ's big runs he's had guys right there to block the only defenders with a shot of stopping him short, while our man CP usually ends up sprinting full speed by himself and eventually dives into the end zone before a defender can reach him.

If we see more of Mike Sellers or just any sort of lead blocking in general he will have a phenomenal year. :2cents:

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If we are lucky enough to have Campbell develop into a top QB and keep Saunders and GW after Gibbs retiers then, barring injuries, I can see Portis haveing many highly productive years ahead of him. Emmitt had a strong team around him for his entire career. And things are certainly falling in place for Portis to have a very successful career as well.

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Emmitt Smith's record is a longevity record more than a skill record. When Portis has 5 more good years under his belt, then we can talk about it. Smith also never had back-ups as talented as Betts and Cartwright. I would rather see Portis gain 1,300 and stay healthy for the playoffs, than gain 2,000 and be as tired and banged up as he was last year at the end of the season.

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Barry Sanders could have had the record if he wanted it. As mentioned above, Emmit's record is more of durability than skill. There are plenty of more talented backs but none as durable.

PS..keep an eye on Jesse Lumsden. Before Larry Johnson became the stud we all saw last year, he rode the bench for a few years and almost didn't make the team at one point. From unknown to unstoppable......

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What about Chris Warren?

Rich........

He had Warren for a few of years, Sherman Williams for a few. Guys who could spell him. He never had 2 guys who could be starters somewhere in the NFL, guys who deserved some carries and really were not much of a step down. All I am saying is that if Portis averages 20 carries a game and Betts/Rock average 15, Portis won't gain 2,000, but he'll be a force in December. (January also I hope.)

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He had Warren for a few of years, Sherman Williams for a few. Guys who could spell him. He never had 2 guys who could be starters somewhere in the NFL, guys who deserved some carries and really were not much of a step down.

I doubt very seriously that either Rock Cartwright or Ladell Betts would start for many other teams in more than a temporary role. And as for Chris Warren, he was a starter in Seattle before he went to Dallas (and a very good one at that).

The article below is an interesting statistical analysis of Clinton Portis's chance to break Emmitt Smith's career rushing record. This guy also has a few others about Portis which attempt to predict how many yards he will rush for next season, as well as various other analyses. It's a pretty cool blog to read if you're a league history/stat geek like I am.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=5

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I doubt very seriously that either Rock Cartwright or Ladell Betts would start for many other teams in more than a temporary role. And as for Chris Warren, he was a starter in Seattle before he went to Dallas (and a very good one at that).

The article below is an interesting statistical analysis of Clinton Portis's chance to break Emmitt Smith's career rushing record. This guy also has a few others about Portis which attempt to predict how many yards he will rush for next season, as well as various other analyses. It's a pretty cool blog to read if you're a league history/stat geek like I am.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=5

The above link discusses Ladanian's hopes, below is CP's

This is the link for the Portis info

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