Thinking Skins

Parcells definitely influenced my thinking. You don't get that now a days though. I'm not in love with Nix or Penix for other reasons. But the thing is without film I have nothing to analyze. I'm a data scientist, I need data. Guys who have one year are ok but I have to wonder if he's a one year wonder or if he can do it again. The questions about Howell when he had the bad senior year are real. It doesn't mean that I can't like a guy who doesn't have this data, but I'm doing analytics so I can't do analytics based on them. Fields had 2 years, which is becoming the normal so I guess I was higher on him. But now I might be mis remembering. I know I hated the resumes of Lance, and Jones. I can't remember what I thought about Wilson.

All this is true. I apologize if I confused the two opinions, which was not not my intent. As you know I do tend to favor QB steals over high round QBs, but that's not what's favoring this analysis. Right now I'm looking more into their play and just their resumes. We can talk about Howell. I thought Howell would be a first round QB, but I was in love with him before we got him. he dropped to the fifth so he fits the low round category but that shouldn't count. When I was doing my analytics I thought he'd be a top pick and I was hyping him. I had no idea he'd drop. But at the time people were hyping Willis, Corral and others and I was saying that I don't like their resumes. I like a longer list of games on my resume, so I hyped Howell and Ridder and to a lesser extent Zappe but not as much because of his arm. Then there was Pickett who I had a question mark on. People were calling him Burrow but I was like nah. He was nowhere near as dominant as Burrow. So I didn't like him. Result. I liked 2 guys Howell and Ridder and Ridder only cause he could run, but not really run like a dual threat but run more like a Jason Campbell, thats not a great thing. We go back to the QB class with Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones and Monds. And yeah I didn't like any of them because I said what have you done in college. People say you can't look at play by play or college stats, but you can look at pure numbers and see if they took enough attempts to learn the basics and do things like set their feet and read defenses and go through reads. That doesn't just happen overnight. So I was low on all these guys based on their low number of starts, except Monds. But because Monds was given such a low grade by scouts why should I give him a high grade. He was a dual threat (Jason Campbell type) who could be mobile while he learned the game. Otherwise I was not a fan of the guys above. And It seems like I'm proving right. Monds is a bust but so are the other guys. Fields may be a hit, but hes not a franchise guy yet. This year we have 3-6 guys who have cool resumes BUT... Williams is 6'1. I don't like that. We went through 17 games hearing how bad that is for Howell. I'm supposed to ignore that now that we have a new QB? He went to USC where teams don't play a lot of defense. He had a better 2022 than 2023. Why didn't he get better? Does he have character concerns? I'm not saying I don't want them to draft him, I'm just saying I'm not in love with him and that I could see why he'd bust. Maye never TOOK OVER a game. We were talking about that with Lamar Jackson just this year for being the MVP. Well, if a QB is going to be the number 2 pick, I want that too. Caleb Williams has a few (I believe 2 6-TD games). Now this could just be the bias in the PAC12 vs the ACC though so am I being mean to MAYE because Williams played against no defense? Maye had a lot of deep balls that went into opponents territory and they scored later that drive, so its not like the offense didn't produce. But I wasn't seeing it from Maye. The back of my mind there was the comparison to Daniel Jones. Its not there any more as I've been delving into their college careers, but that was there. Maye, like Williams, didn't get better in his senior season. Why? EDIT: While the Daniel Jones comparison is gone, there are comparisons to other big strong arm QBs that didn't work who I want to say why isn't Maye just like them? I don't want to go into them right now because each one has a story why Maye is not like them that is not football related. But on the field, why did these guys fail? Daniels is the guy I like the most of these three. There is the stuff he did before this year that taints my opinion of him. There is this year which I think is great. Then there is the contact that he takes which I think is problematic. He was 185 before LSU. then he got to 210 at LSU. How big can his body get? We're not looking at somebody who's going to be as big as Anthony Richardson. So I wonder about the contact he takes. I love that he got (so much) better this year. I wouldn't put it up there with Burrow, but it is very good. I think he is still hesitant to throw with anticipation and into tight windows as marked with the 40 TDs and 4 INTS. But if he can do that here, I have no qualms. The stories about him being the first into the building and last out, not to the gym but into the film room to study the tape is also good to know. EDIT: The other things about Daniels, is that I was not in love with his pure passing. I'm falling off of that because as he is a runner and as long as he is a hard worker, I think he can get better at the mental side of throwing and learning the game. But I was not impressed with him just sitting in the pocket and throwing for a first down. It seemed like he always had to put himself in harms way which meant that we might need to depend on Sam more than we want to.

I think you misread my post. I was saying he disliked Maye. That was all I was saying about him. The rest is my thoughts. I have thoughts about this draft class because I like all of the top 3 guys but I'm not in love with any of them. I honestly think I want Daniels above top because of his work ethic and how much he improved at LSU and the fact that he played at LSU, compared to the PAC12 with no defense and the ACC. I've got nothing against Maye and Williams (and really Daniels) but I'm just not IN LOVE with any of them. That's why I'm constantly telling my friends and family that this year's class makes me feel like 2011. I wonder what Peters feels though because he is the one that matters though. I'm a nobody with an opinion. Sure I'm writing some analytics for fun to see things, and some are favorable to Williams, some are favorable to Maye, others are favorable to Daniels. But its just for my free time and to keep conversations flowing. People say you can't base things on play by play, but I've found some cool data sets that have parsed the college football stats from 2012 to 2023 (minus 2020 because of COVID) and I'm having fun with it, and learning a lot about the players.

Listened to the John Keim podcast this morning. I thought it was very good. Randy Mueller was on and he does not like Drake Maye. Does not think he's Justin Herbers. Compares him more to Mac Jones. Now, before Howell fans (like myself) get excited, he was excited about Daniels, so I could still see a guy like Peters drafting a QB at 2. But he did say Howell got a I think he said raw deal and it was incomplete grade. But he was saying that he would draft a QB if he was there because you don't know what you have in Howell. But I'm starting to wonder, well continuing to wonder if this draft has a bunch of QBs who are good but not great and so guys are not sold on them. I was fearful that it would wind up like the 2011 draft when we drafted Kerrigan instead of getting one of Locker / Gabbert / Mallet / Ponder. We could have gotten Kaep or Dalton as late firsts or early seconds but didn't.

I wasn't a Junkies guy either at first. What I remember is them coming on I think it was 106.7 in the evenings against Ken Beatrice, and it was total different type of an audience. So I catered towards Ken. What's interesting is that I am more of a fan now of the Junkies. I'm not really a fan of their sports takes and that's cool because their show isn't really a sports show. Sure they talk sports, but they have just a bunch of stories. But they have things to remind me to do things like shovel snow and defrost my car (my old car) in the mornings before going to work, and to check the traffic before leaving. And I would listen to the stories about their kids getting older because I have kids now and so that's something that I'm interested in. I think it was Lurch who gave some good advice in 2018 or 2019 and it was Don't just take pictures because you'll enjoy the pictures but you'll miss their voice, so record videos too. For a show that's always on the most comical of the set of shows between 106.7 and 980 and all the podcasts, this has easily impacted me the most as I try to record a lot of moments and conversations with my loved ones. Then I hear EB (the real EB) talking about his life as a travel parent (is that what they're called sports parent) and I'm preparing for that. I was doing it last spring and probably will do it again this spring. But yeah, their sport knowledge is some of the least in the city. You talk about the Caps coach. I remember they interviewed Barry Sanders. Imagine that. And Lurch who I just praised for some good advice, but he asked Barry to sign a jersey. And not something he had on him. That'd be one thing. Something he had to ship to Barry and Barry would ship it back to him. I don't think he ever got it back.

Yeah, that's what I was somewhat thinking partially but not fully. Like the plans for the team going forward is his vision. How he sees Terry, Sam, Brian, etc. how do they like to be coached. Did he ever wind up getting through to them? That's exit interview stuff but it's also did that's critical because their under contact for next year and depending on the draft they're (some of) the guys next year. But I'm just saying that this is another way to gather information that's more inclusive than an exit interview. I think there are questions you can ask here that you can't ask there. (Like going forward questions and what ifs)

I literally explained my scenarios. - Davis had a bad rookie year, Ron said he liked to be coached hard. That could be something EB tells them. Not that obviously but something like it about a different player that he learned. - I explained about fights in the locker room - you asked a question about gay jokes among billionaires but these are not billionaires on Wall Street. They're billionaires who have to manage a locker room. So some of them may make some of these same jokes. Have you seen the commentary about the 911 inspirational speech given by coach McDermott? Yeah, it didn't hit so well. - there are more stories that I don't want to delve into. I searched the issue and found a few players that were different from who I named earlier but who this issue definitely arises. But even if you don't think it does it was a fictional example. I had things in my mind where I'm posting a reply to a bunch of guys on a message board. I didn't think I'd get the third degree over what actually happened and what didn't. Is that even what you're asking because I'm not even sure. I remember when Guice said they called his mother a prostitute at the combine. Later he changed the story, but was he lying it not. My whole point is that it's worthwhile to interview the man. That's all. There's valuable information. From each question I think you can get stuff. In not from that one question then 🤷. I'm done with this.

I'm not trying to start a fight on the board. I just wanted to point out why it's beneficial to interview EB. I won't quote anyone this time though. I didn't mean to offend. Locker rooms have lots of jokes. Sometimes guys get offended. Sometimes coaches find out. And maybe a coach can find out that player a made a rape joke about player b and that's why they're not getting along so well any more. It's a fictional creation I made up in the spur of the moment. I was drawing from Parsons but not knowing much from the incident. Maybe there's Westbrook & Davis (that was a gay joke) that led to a fight. He was taking in coach speak in the press conferences but I'm just saying that Harris should ask him to go into detail as much as possible and for specific examples.

I'm thinking about locker room environments that players don't thrive in.

We heard what the players said about EBs offense and we heard what Ron said about the players, but I wonder if Harris asked EB about the players and his offense. Did they need a kick in the pants? What happened in these last 8 games? What could have happened differently do that your message was better received? Do you need a different type of player? Did you want to be more physical? If so why didn't you rub the ball? You said your were focused on mistakes in practices, that seems easy for a RB or a WR but how can you do fast practices and measure the mistakes of an OL? How did your respond to criticism from players to your system? How much criticism was there? Was it from just a few players or did it seem like the whole offense? Going forward, with what you know, would you coach all 53 players the same way you coached the offense this year? Or how would you coach them differently? And who would you coach differently? Continue? And I'd keep this going as long as possible. What I'm doing in these questions is interviewing him but also gathering information for myself about his scheme and our players - which ones like to be coached hard and which ones don't. And maybe some do, don't like certain phrases or certain jokes (like gay jokes or rape jokes so you have to not go there with them) Then there's the whole thing forward, direction. Plan for QB. Plan for the offense, plan for the defense. And assistants? What are you going to do with there's an argument with Adam. Adam is saying we need a LB and you want a WR. You're screaming at it the top of your lungs that this is your guy and Adam is saying no this guy is the game changer. Who wins?

My kids "invented" a game called chesskers - a combination of chess and checkers but the rules made no sense no I showed them another variant invented in 1984 that's actually fun

While this is true, I still say that the callers give a show life. True there are the ones who don't know how a talk show operates "am I on yet" "can you hear me" "is that me" "turn your razor l radio down" but for most of those your get an original theory that is worth listening to. Unfortunately the hosts get unruly and hang up too soon and won't let them finish because they have to get through the calls. But what makes a good host anyway? Just having an opinion? Having a voice? Being able to answer calls? It's frustrating to hear callers tell hosts better opinions than the hosts (especially the junkies). And they'll just entertain it briefly and move on. Like I said. I like the callers, and it's why I came to tsn and later es to talk with the callers more.

Didn't even see that one. I saw commanders and wasn't surprised but yeah Eagles kinda surprises me. Then again it is Howie Roseman so nothing surprises me. Who is to say its for Caleb. It could be for MHJ.

I love sports radio for the callers. I don't need to hear the Chris Russell or other disk jockeys. The callers give it life. Especially when it's more than the same 5 callers.

Does Harris's 80 hour statement on coach and 80 hour on GM not hold for coach and coordinator? Aren't they both full time jobs? Won't he tax himself out in doing one and not do the other? In being the coordinator he will never get to know the other side of the field, for example.

That's inbreeding

Here are the numbers from PFF for Drake Maye. Like I said, they feel a lot more like a Justin Herbert than a Daniel Jones QB. Its not a 1-1 thing though. There are definitely other QBs that have flamed out that I am skeptical though (Sam Darnold comes to mind) but I don't know if that's a Darnold thing like it was a Josh Rosen thing as to why it didn't work for him. I think I'm getting more and more in favor of Maye. I still like Howell but Maye is growing on me.

Yeah, I'm pretty confident we're going QB at 2. Even more I'm pretty confident it will be Maye with Williams going 1 to Chicago or somewhere else (not here though). Or are you saying that someone else will trade up for a QB at 2. Maybe. Anyway, here are the top pics from the 2023 draft. (according to PFR) Its interesting 1. CJ Stroud (1.2) 2. Puka Nacua (5.177) 3. Jahmyr Gibbs (1.12) 4. Bijan Robinson (1.8) 5. Zay Flowers (1.22) 6. Anton Harrison (1.27) 7. Sam LaPorta (2.34) 8. Jayden Reed (2.50) 9. O'Cyrus Torrence (2.59) 10. Paris Johnson (1.6) 11. Darnell Wright (1.10) 12. Steve Avila (2.36) 13. Rashee Rice (2.55) 14. Will Anderson (1.3) 15. Jordan Addison (1.23) 16. Dalton Kincaid (1.25) 17. Cody Mauch (2.48) 18. Byron Young (3.77) 19. Josh Downs (3.79) 20. De'Von Achane (3.84) 21. Bryce Young (1.1) I could keep going but the payoff is less and less the further down you go and you start to see that most of the top pics are in the first and second (minus that steal in the 5th).

That's what sports talk radio goes for. The age of Ken Beatrice (is that before your time) is over. I remember when I was a kid (old man story coming). I would call into Ken Beatrice's show and talk about the Skins. This was before Extremeskins. And It was right after Gibbs retired and either during 94 or 95, that era, when it started. So it was a hard time. So I would sit and wait on hold for a long time and listen to him talk to callers about all kinds of stuff and he knew stuff and could talk about stuff from the 70s or current day or compare events and greats and how the game has changed and what's different and whats to love about it and all thiese things but not make you feel bad about it. Anyway, after my wait I'd ask my little question and I'm sure it was a stupid question like Why isn't Norv Turner higher on Gus when he clearly beat him out in camp? And Ken would answer my question and talk to me for about 2 or 3 minutes and tell me something like to do my homework and be nice to my teachers and then he'd hang up. I do this about a dozen times calling into the show. Fast forward a few weeks or actually a few years (so we're talking late 90s) and I can remember calling into the Tony Kornheiser show. I hate that show. You know why? Same situation, I sit on hold for about the same amount of time, to ask some question that most other fans have in their heads. Anyway when I get on the air first thing that comes out of is "hello, how are you" Its just instinct because thats how I was raised. Unfortunately Tony has some unheard of rule that you can't say hello on his show and whoever says "hello" gets "banned from the Tony Kornheiser show" with a gong and sound bite and everything. I don't think I ever tried to call back. And Tony HATED Ken. But most of the DC Media, while they respect Ken's legacy, pattern themselves after Tony and try to make a name for themselves by (1) embarrassing their guests and (2) making outlandish takes and just cartoonish wagers like "I'll quit my job if..."

Indy had 13 and it led them to 9 wins, found a WR in the 3rd, an OL in the 4th and a TE in the 5th and a DB in the 7th. GB had 13 and it led them to 9 wins, found a WR and a TE in the second, another TE in the 3rd, another WR in the 5th, and two DBs in the 7th. Jax had 13 and it led to 9 wins, found them a OL, but otherwise looks like they either didn't play or weren't good. SF had 9 in 2023, 9 in 2022, 8 in 2021, 5 in 2020, 8 in 2019, 9 in 2018 and 10 in 2017 So that's an idea of Peters's draft strategy on trading back (though it was not really his decision) but he has had 10 picks only once.

So I'm just looking at this, and not saying its likely but in 2020 the Vikings had 15 picks in the NFL draft giving them the most picks in the NFL draft since the draft was limited to 7 rounds. In 2016, the Browns had 14 picks. Who did the Vikings draft in 2020? 1.22 - Justin Jefferson (WR) 1.31 - Jeff Gladney(CB) 2.58 - Ezra Cleveland (T) 3.89 - Cameron Dantzier (CB) 4.117 - James Lynch (DE) 4.132 - Troy Dye (LB) 5.169 - Harrison Hand (CB) 5.176 - KJ Osborn (WR) 6.203 - Blake Brandel (T) 6.205 - Josh Metellus (S) 7.225 - Kenny Willekes (DE) 7.244 - Nate Stanley (QB) 7.249 - Brian Cole II (S) 7.253 - Kyle Hinton (G) Ten of those 15 players are still playing. That Browns draft wasn't as good. The second round pick looks decent, and the 5th round pick Rashard Higgins is a good pick. What does this mean? Nothing really, but I'm thinking about the idea of trading back and what kind of value we can get. We currently have 9 picks. 1 first, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 1, 4th, 1 5th, 1 6th, 1 7th. Trading back can get us what? 3 or 4 more picks. That can be cool if it can get us more of a top heavy draft like Minnesota's was where they had more hits. But if we start having more 6th and 7th rounders, those are where the special teamers come from. Do we need a dozen of those picks? I think we're better off taking the elite talent and signing the premier UDFAs.

I think your take on Caleb is off. Last year (22) he lost 3 games on his way to winning the Heisman. He had 3 5TD (Utah, Arizona, Tulane) games and 2 4TD games (Stanford and California). Its not like they didn't happen. Sure 2023 wasn't as good of a year but he still had a 4 TD game against San Jose State (7-6) and a 3 TD game against Washington (14-1). And that's not to speak of his running ability. He had 27 rushing TDs over his time in college, including 11 his last year.

So I'm digging deep into the draft stuff right now and I'm trying not to let my Sam Howell love influence me too much. Maye has some things that compare him very favorably to some people like a Josh Allen and some of the other big QBs. Like he has done some of those big runs like Allen did last week in the playoffs. But so has Daniel Jones. I don't think Drake Maye's PFF Draft Profile is out just yet, but here are two comparisons between Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert. Now, there's a serious question as to which QB Drake Maye is more similar to, but Maye's YPA is closer to Herbert's (8.9, 8.4, and 8.5 on 10, 517 and 425 attempts). So this is in the same conference as Daniel Jones but putting up way better numbers. Earlier in this month (or last month) I was very on Maye and comparing him to Jones, but I'm backing off that. Now Herbert was a Pac12 QB so that is an issue in itself because of the lack of defense they play out there and how that inflates the numbers. But he's fared better than say a Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson.

That's what everybody's waiting for. But short of him trading down or trading for Fields, we're not going to hear anything until after the draft