Llevron

55 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Throwing everything else out, here's the # playerprofiler produced that confused me the most:

Target Separation in '23: 59th

Target Separation in '22: 27th

 

His 40 was 88th percentile, but in the middle of the pack when adjusted for size. But that's fine, he's plenty fast enough. What explains why his ability to get open and separate from his coverage was less than 50% what it was his rookie year? That's the key component. Normally I'd assume that was injury.

 

 

I definitely think injury is part of it - he was often hurt both seasons if i remember correctly. My wholly uneducated opinion was that the offense we were running was very predictable in play call and result. We were going to call a pass, there was going to be fast pressure, and the QB was going to have to move. So knowing that, I would think it would be easy to cover a guy who basically doesn't have time for a double move to matter at all because he will never get the ball downfield. Add all of that to the moral and I think you have a recipe for failure. 

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

the guy in white is in HS? Maroon is Forbes?

 

 

Maroon is definitely Forbes. White i think is in high school but im not 100% on that. Thats what they are saying on the interwebs. 

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Still seriously need an answer

The skinny one. The other guy is in high school I think.

They are on Twitter saying my man looks like Starvin Marvin and I can’t argue with them. 

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Which is definitely very good, but also shouldn't be overly surprising for a 5 year starter. That's why I said I think the Pats went with the upside angle. Maye is certainly less refined in his footwork and mechanics than Daniels, but he was also only a starter for 2 years and had two different OCs who also had different ways they wanted his footwork to be. So I think it's unsurprising that he's less refined. So the Pats went with traits and upside, sort of like the Bills with Allen.

 

I guess time will tell if they were right.

 

And yeah I remember reading reports about Mahomes as well as Allen being pretty bad in camp. Which is another reason I mostly don't give a **** about camp other than just getting to see new guys playing as entertainment something to do in the offseason. .

The pats went with the best guy left they didn’t really get a choice in the matter. 

23 minutes ago, Conn said:

One under-acknowledged issue with this fanbase is that right alongside an understandable slide in attention and attendance, and a rise in apathy, has been an undeniable rot in the overall communal intelligence of the fanbase. 
 

Many people are so used to the whiplash of tricking themselves into Snyder’s latest half-assed, surface-level attempt at “fixing things”, and then turning on it when they can no longer cope, that their ability to truly reason (in a football sense) is just broken. 

 

You have pockets of what I’d call educated, intelligent discussion and well-founded understanding of the league and how good organizations win…here on ES being one imo (and keeping this place this way has been hard fought). But overall I’m sorry to say, we have a dumb fanbase. Part of it is the outrage-focused, clickbait journalism that bad organizations foster in their followings. It’s a poor time for media everywhere across the world in general, but that’s exacerbated when you’re talking about the type of content these writers (and tweeters) feel they need to churn out to get the angry clicks of a disillusioned fanbase.
 

Outside of small communities like this where imo the flame of good discussion and debate never fully dimmed, this fanbase has been declining in football IQ and common sense for ages. That should start to turn around now, eventually. But your average twitter/facebook/radio listener type fan is an absolute moron. Maybe the entire league is like that but it seems particularly bad for this team. 

I have a lot of words on this I would type but not a lot of time. Hopefully this half baked idea comes across they way it sounds in my head. 

Fear is a survival instinct that keeps us alive. You learn to fear the things that kill/hurt you/others around you. I think suspicion is similar thing in that it keeps you from getting your hopes up when you have learned that only leads to you getting down at some point. Honestly -- and very seriously -- being a fan of this franchise has been traumatic if you loved it enough. And I think all of that apathy and dumb reactionary stuff falls into the kind of instinct we have developed as a fan base that tells us that especially when things look good.....the end is always near and there is always something hiding in the shadows. 

I dont know that we ever get past it really. It makes it more fun to go balls to the walls and just enjoy what's happening. Kind of like jumping out of an emotional plane. But you gotta know the **** might crash. Again. 

Allen doesn't strike me as the type to sing praise just for the media. So i take that as serious and less flowery than I would if it was someone else. 

38 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Remember when Adam Peters was mic'd up during the Senior Bowl and combine? He had so many people dapping him up and congratulating him. I get the sense that he's EXTREMELY well liked in the NFL and guys just wanna flock to work for him and build something special.

For sure. His personality is infectious, you can tell from watching from afar. I also wonder how much of that often said and over used 'Washington is a storied franchise' stuff was actually true once Snyder was out of the picture. I have said for years that if someone was brave enough to want to turn this place around and talented enough to do it, they would have their next jobs made. Nothing could speak more loudly then turning this joke of a franchise into one of the best. Look at how wanted anyone from Detroit is viewed. That should attract talent all by itself. 

Who knows. Its fun as **** to watch. Its hard to imagine that we wont be seeing results from this at some point. 

19 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

To me, putting a QB in a training wheels offense isn't what giving up on them looks like.  Giving up on them is putting them in situations to develop bad habits, lose their confidence, and then benching them and putting your commitment to them in doubt.  You have to be so on point with your situational football as a coach when you're working with a young QB, and even still, you've got to stay patient and always consider the big picture.  It's a tough job, and that's why smart teams take away any possible temptation for their HCs to deviate from the plan and bench their prospects.  No coach should be empowered to give up on a plan that is an ownership level decision.  And smart teams also run offense that shields their prospects from carrying the load early, and accept that it means they won't beat good teams that are already fully developed.

Right -- you have to be intentional with every decision involving them. You cant just leave it up to them to figure it out and work through it. I agree with you 100%

14 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Put the training wheels on and acknowledge that his development is more important than winning next year.

I think, for a lot of people, that is akin to giving up or admitting that he might not be the guy. What needs to be stressed is that if we don't follow the quoted instruction you have here, the chances are great he will never be the guy. 

I don't think you will get a lot of people to agree with you, but I think you are right.

9 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I thought the point of Paul's character in Dune was that he was a false messiah of a fake religion seeded onto a planet to control the population and co-opt them into participating in a larger imperial power struggle.

I would have to spoil the ending of the books to fully answer this. 

However....

19 hours ago, BayouBrave86 said:

Im going to be making this reference all season lol 

Hopefully 

11 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

@NewCliche21 Did you really just evoke Casey Rabach? In this house? 

How. Dare. You. How dare you? How??

8 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

Dak was a near MVP last year while Hurts was in the super bowl two years ago.  Kirk is coming off an Achilles injury and going to a new team.  I think Dak & Hurts are comfortably ahead of Kirk due to all those factors.

How he comes back from his achilles is the only factor here for me. I'm comfortable putting Kirk above both of them, even on his new team, outside of that. He is just better than both of them imo. Hurts I think can possibly be a more athletic version of him. Dak is too turnover prone to compete imho. I have not dived into analytics to prove this. We don't have to fight that hard. Just my possibly uneducated opinion on it. 

But you aint gonna get me of all people on here defending Kirk Cousins lol

7 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

To me, the schedule is always about the opposite QBs.  Here's who we face:

 

Elite (Tier 1):

Burrow (away)

Lamar (away)

 

Very Good (Tier 2):

Dak (x2)

Hurts (x2)

 

Good (Tier 3):

Kirk (home)

 

Average (Tier 4):

Carr (away)

Baker (away)

Watson (home)

Kyler (away)

 

Below Average (Tier 5):

Wilson (home)

Jones (x2)

 

Unknown (Tier 6):

Caleb (home)

Levis (home)

Bryce (home)

 

 

I think this is the correct way to think about it. A few notes though:

• We play Cinnci early and Burrow is a notoriously slow starter. Win for us imo
• You have Kirk as just good? Think he is too low. Maybe the team is just good but I think he is every bit as good as Dak and Hurts, probably better. 
• I don't trust Wilson and the stealers. I know Wilson is not the same and never will be. But neither him nor Tomlin should be seen as walks. Ever. 

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

I don’t know. I think you kinda can take away a lot of it if it’s true.

 

If a coach is always on you, doesn’t design things for you, puts you late in progression and makes you second guess yourself… it’s extremely difficult to play well for a young player.

 

You can say, “he needs to get through that…” and I’d agree. But these guys are human.

 

If he doesn’t improve this year, then ya, it’s a Jahan problem. The proof will show itself. 

I think people see guys like Terry and think "If he can do it so can the other guy" or something like that. And not realize it is very difficult to be the best version of yourself if you are off mentally and how much bad leadership can really just **** up the moral to the point that its impossible for people to function at their best. 

Terry was in a funk himself last season too btw. You could see it physically on him just how we walked. None of them were the same. 

10 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I've lived in LKBs head long enough.

Once my man started counting I knew it was serious hahaha

Awww i didnt want you to actually do it lol 

The coaches I think will fix it. 

Also, and I don't know if you know this @Koolblue13, but people have noticed the way you spell Randell and kinda rubbing people the wrong way....

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think Dotson just had a case of the Sophomore blues. He was solid in his rookie season. I would expect a nice jump in productivity from him this season. 

https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1790729091752046921

He specifically said he didn't feel like himself that last season and you could look at it and see it. I honestly think it was just bad coaching, low moral and knowing none of this was going anywhere. Guys like Terry, who can see the writing on the wall and play hard anyway, are rare. Not that its a good excuse, mind you. He cant do it again. But thats what it looked like to me. 

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

People flipping out about a frikin feather. Whatever.

Right? Crazy out of character for this fan base! 

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah the article clearly comes off that this was Peters guy by a mile.  But he wanted to see if the anayltics and scouting department agreed with him.

 

I think though it became a bit over the top on the QB thread about the analytics community preferring Maye where it wasn't really that clear to me on that front that there was a major distinction.  The PFF guys specifically preferred Maye but they also said its a tough call, they had the two close.  The Football Outsiders guy preferred Daniels by a good margin.  And Warren Sharp also preferred Daniels by a good margin.  

 

The main stat some were hung up on was pressure to sack.  But the irony for that was Maye and Daniels number on that front last year was almost identical.  The thing is though Daniels number was a bit inflated on that front factoring context because blowing up designed runs in the backfield counted as sack to pressure.  Also I read somewhere that Daniels had one of the best stats as for not losing many yards on the sacks -- so those sacks were rarely egregious sacks.

That is exactly my argument against the emphasis put on the stat and why I thought it was good information, but lacking context. He was obviously going to take sacks at a higher rate. He had an option the other guys didn’t and he was told to use it. All that said, he only had 22 last season. 

45 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I posted more from this article in the FO thread

 

Adam Peters didn't tell many people inside the Washington Commanders organization what he planned to do with the second pick of the 2024 NFL Draft until after the draft actually began. By then, no one was surprised that he was selecting LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels.

The surprise was that nobody seemed to disagree.

"I can't remember the last time there wasn't some fighting about a draft pick," said a source in the Commanders organization, "or at least some griping behind each other's backs.

"Things sure feel different around here now."

 

....For example, when Harris bought the Commanders, he made it a priority to beef up the analytics department, hiring Eugene Shen as the senior vice president of football strategy about three months before he hired Peters. Peters, according to a team source, has leaned on the new department heavily, but not at the expense of good, old-fashioned scouting.

The choice of Daniels, he said, was made in large part because of what he saw on film. Peters said Daniels jumped to the head of the pack the first time he watched him and thought "I honestly couldn't believe how good he was." But he then worked with the analytics department and the scouts, according to a team source, to help confirm his choice, without ever truly revealing a preference.

That was different too. It appears that Peters' inner circle on the most important decision of his tenure so far was limited to Quinn, Harris, and Bob Myers, the front office consultant who previously ran the NBA's Golden State Warriors. Others, like offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, were brought in along the way, according to a team source, and at least told which way Peters was leaving.

 

But many others — including key members of Harris' ownership group — weren't told until the morning of the draft. And most of the front office and scouting department weren't told until the Chicago Bears were on the clock for the first overall pick.

That prevented leaks, which in previous years had been prevalent. Some in the organization even thought Peters might have been leaning towards Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who reportedly was his second choice. But just as importantly, it gave a chance for almost everyone involved in the process to weigh in, to feel they were a valued part of it, instead of going through the motions while assuming Peters had already made up his mind.

 

"It's having an aligned vision," Peters said. "(It's) having collaboration, having inclusion with everybody, everybody pulling in the same direction. That's how we did it in San Francisco and that's what allows you to get through, not just the good times, but that's what allows you to get through the tough times as well."

Again, none of that is a revolutionary approach. Collaboration, building a culture, changing the thinking is the goal of every new GM that steps in and tries to overhaul a flailing franchise.

But it feels especially new in Washington, where chaos and controversy ruled for far too long. It was a place where for too often it seemed like decisions were made simply to plug holes so the people in charge could stop the ship from sinking, or maybe just save themselves.

 

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/adam-peters-reshaping-football-in-washington

It’s very interesting to me that Peters used the Analytics department to confirm his choice (without telling them who he was leaning toward, thus removing the bias of pleasing the boss) and it was Daniels they landed on. 
 

Interesting to me mostly because the online analytics community around the NFL was crowing about a few stats in particular that they thought made him basically untouchable. I wish I could ask Shen for details. Clearly they either valued different numbers or had different numbers entirely.