Going Commando

11 hours ago, mhd24 said:

I wonder if Harbaugh takes him with their early 3rd?  Heck, if he's as highly rated as you have him, LAC should take him with their early 2nd.  Jim knows him more than anyone would.

I think he's going to go in the second round, and then hindsight will set in pretty quickly with him that he should have been a first rounder, like with Jonathan Taylor.  But if he makes it to round three, I want us to draft him.  Don't care that we've got Ekeler and BRob, he's better than both of them today, and probably far better over a window of the next four years.

I honestly don't think I've ever seen someone with better vision, instincts, and elusiveness at the college level.  I'm way too young for OK St Barry, but that's what he feels like. I do remember MJD at UCLA, and Corum was way better.  Definitely never seen anyone reverse field and string together moves as efficiently as him.  And his big play finishing is as special as it ever gets.  His toolkit is massive and I think he can star in either gap or zone heavy schemes.

It's kind of incredible that he's going under the radar.  He's one of the faces of the sport, and was a historic player on a National Champion with tons of fans in the football media.

11 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

SEC also had a down year, especially on defense.

 

Also, didn't Daniels get injured in the Alabama game? So the one game that comes closest to NFL defenders and...he got hurt. Kinda proves the point.

Yep.  And that Alabama defense was terrible in that LSU game.  They got beaten at the LoS and couldn't get any pressure, and the coverages got lost on very basic presnap motions.  They tried playing man all day and left Jayden free to pick up huge yardage on the ground.  One play where Terrion Arnold had his back to the LoS the entire snap, 20 yards down field, totally unaware that Jayden is running by him stands out.  That game is why I'm lower on Arnold than the room.  Dallas Turner hit Jayden hard twice in that game.  The first was a preview of what will happen to him in the NFL when he scrambles up the middle of a defense and tries to string those runs out long enough for pursuit to reach him.  The second one that came in the pocket took him out of the game, and that is a preview of life in the NFL when he doesn't have tackles getting easy wins all day, and he has to stand tall in the pocket to deliver the throw.

Blake Corum is the best zone runner I've ever seen at the college level.  His vision and creativity are as elite as elite gets, and I don't care how old he is.  He's going to be in my top 25, and I think he's going to be one of the best players in the NFL early in his career.  He's also the best RB that Michigan has ever had, and was far and away the best player on Michigan's stacked team.  JJ McCarthy got to play in a backfield with prime Barry Sanders.

Here's my RB rankings:

1 - Blake Corum
2 - Jonathan Brooks
3 - Audric Estime
4 - Trey Benson
5 - Kendall Milton
6 - Cody Schrader
7 - Tyrone Tracy
8 - Jaylen Wright
9 - Bucky Irving
10 - Marhsawn Lloyd
11 - Ray Davis

Here's Jeff Legworld's top 100 from last year: https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/story/_/id/36184202/2023-nfl-draft-jeff-legwold-ranking-top-100-prospects

Stroud was ranked 7th and Young was 8th, and Stroud has already completely torpedoed the case that any of the top six guys are close to him.  He's systematically underrating QB prospects, and that speaks to a flaw in the system of big boarding draft prospects that is common.  QBs can be ranked against each other, but they can't accurately be valued against the field of players from all positions because their draft value for teams hinges entirely upon these two questions:

1 - Do I need a QB? 

If no, then QBs might as well not even be in my top 100.  At most, you'd be fishing for third stringers on Day 3. 

But if the answer is yes, then:

2 - Am I comfortable with making this QB prospect my long term plan at the position? 

If the answer is a confident yes, then no draft pick is too early for them.  They should be at the top of your draft board in every scenario. 

If the answer is "eh, maybe," then you have to find the price point where the potential value overtakes the risk for you.  This seems to be the late first or second round for most QB prospects who have a more checkered profile in most years.  Teams have proven unwilling to take more speculative QB prospects over elite prospects at other positions, but are willing to do so after that cream of elite position players is largely gone.

I think draftniks might as well exclude QB from their big boards and create a second QB only board where they rank and tier the prospects like this:

Tier 1: QBs you're confident in drafting to be a long term starter.

Tier 2: QBs that you can see having long term starting potential but have enough flags to make you hesitate.

Tier 3: QBs that are a lottery ticket.

Tier 4: QBs that are end of roster bodies.

For me, the only Tier 1 QBs this year are Williams and Maye.  The Tier 2 QBs are Daniels, McCarthy, and Penix.  The Tier 3 QBs are Nix, Rattler, Pratt, and Milton.

The big disconnect generating the Maye vs Daniels debate is whether or not Maye and Daniels are truly Tier 1 prospects.  Some think both are.  Some think Maye is not.  Some think Daniels is not. 

I think a better system of Big Boarding would be to put breaks in your board where you think it's appropriate to draft QBs from each tier.  Tier 1 should be the top of your board, without exception.  Tier 2 should be where you think the elite position player player cutoff begins.  You eliminate the problem of systematically undervaluing QBs this way, and then the remaining issues are just about accurately judging who should be a Tier 1 or Tier 2 QB, and accurately determining where that elite position prospect cutoff begins.

49 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

Regardless of the fact Legwold has been attending combines for almost 40 years and doing these rankings for almost 30, and is on the HOF selection panel and the smaller seniors selection committee, and therefore has an educated opinion I'd hope we all accord at least some respect/value, I wasn't interested in the absolute rankings but rather the QB rankings relative to each other and his related comments, which is why I listed only QBs and not Harrison/Nabers/whoever.

 

But please do carry on. 😋

Why ignore the overall rankings?  They tell us how he views the game and values players.  And at the very least, if your system of valuing players puts the best and most valuable players in the class at 5, 6, and 23, then your system is bad.

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm fine with KK having an input. He's the OC and was hired for his expertise with QBs. But we shouldn't make the decision based on who fits what KK wants to do. Make him fit the offense around the QB he has.

 

Like Kevin Costner's character says in Draft Day: "Your job is the coach the team I give you."

Yep.

Also OCs have ridiculously high turnover.  Almost none tenure beyond two years.  It's absurd to draft a QB for a two year window.

43 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

2024 NFL draft: Jeff Legwold ranks the top 100 prospects

People often underrate QBs on these things, as a cheap out in case the QB fails or falls.  But it's a meaningless hedge, no one in the world actually believes Marvin Harrison is better and more valuable than the top QBs, or that he should be picked in front of them.  And the truth is that superstar QBs are the best and most valuable football players in every level of the sport, regardless of position.  Harrison isn't even close to as good a player as Williams or Maye are.

22 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'd have Frazier at 3 and Limmer at 4. Not sure why you're so down on Frazier.

 

Zinter might be the best IOL in the group and might be there in the 4rth.

I think Frazier is just a guy and I don't really see what is special about him.  I like his nastiness, but that's about it.  Good balance and power but his body and his reading and movement skills feel very mediocre to me.  He's not bad, I'm going to have him towards the end of the top 100, and I've got him as a fourth round value.

Yeah I think Zinter will be there in the fourth because of his injury, but if he were fully healthy, I think I would have him as a late second round talent.  Probable somewhere between 55-75.  He's a king-sized guard and should be able to single block NFL IDLs.  He's got super sticky hands and is a very controlled, fundamentally excellent player.  I thought his film had the most clean reps of the IOLs this year.  I'm assuming his leg will heal and he'll be ready to go as a rookie, and if that's the case, then I think he will be an immediate starter.

This is my IOL ranking:

1 - Jackson Powers Johnson
2 - Cooper Beebe
3 - Christian Haynes
4 - Sedrick Van Pran
5 - Mason McCormick
6 - Zak Zinter
7 - Beaux Limmer
8 - Christian Mahogany
9 - Kingsley Eguakun
10 - Zach Frazier

This is not a deep IOL class.  It's going to be bolstered by OTs that end up playing inside, but even still, I struggled to find 10 players with top 100 viability.

24 minutes ago, DiscoBob said:

I'm happy that Jay isn't the coach anymore, but most of the "Jay is an idiot" takes seem to be based on his coaching record here.

Well yeah.  We know Jay is a drunken clown who is emblematic of the mom and pop hiring their idiot nephews culture of nepotism that riddles the NFL.  Why would we take anything he does seriously?

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep I forsee a draft day fall for Daniels if we pass on him. Its set up perfectly. ESPN feeds him down everyone's throat for three months, then milks the crap out of his fall on primetime.

I don't think he falls far if we pass him at 2.  Someone will trade up for him.  You just have to find the spot where the trade ammunition matches the willingness to jump down.  The Giants and Cardinals both feel like great candidates to take Godfather trade offers because they might be looking at what Chicago did and think they took will be QB shopping in 2025 once they have the financial flexibility to cut their albatross contracts. The dead cap for cutting Murray or Jones drops by like 50 million next off-season.

28 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Jay is an idiot, I don't care what nice things he might say about Maye. I basically ignore him when he talks about QBs, regardless of who it is. Colt is better, but still hit or miss. I do like listening to him more than Jay because he's better at breaking down tape and explaining what's going on. Jay just sounds like a goober.

Colt isn't bad.  Jay is.  They both struggle to synthesize the information they glean into a coherent, well-reasoned take.  And that fundamental inability to see the wood for the trees is super common among the former QBs and experts who are suddenly moonlighting as draft media analysts.  Good scouts take years of focusing on this one job to hone their perspective, and they also possess intuition for identifying player personality and growth potential that is different than what players and coaches develop when they watch film for the purpose of game planning.

I think New England has been desperately hoping we pick Daniels because they want Maye.  They've been chumming the water like crazy to try and speak that into existence.  I think they trade out of three if we pick Maye, and the Raiders give up 13, 44, and two future firsts to get Daniels.  Then I think Minnesota will move up to four or five for McCarthy.  I don't think New England likes Daniels, and if they have a mandate from Kraft to pick QB and Maye is off the board, then I could see them taking McCarthy instead.  Then Arizona would have a bidding war for Daniels and be able to milk the Raiders and Vikings.

2 hours ago, Llevron said:

The kid himself has said and done literally nothing that’s the funny part. People are gonna hate him because of a bunch of **** other people have said about him. Reading into EVERY word on Twitter has never worked for anything 

He uses these people as his mouthpiece.  His mom, his agent, his publicist, there is a clear pattern of them speaking for him when he doesn't want to get his own hands dirty.  The other two top QBs in the class have been no stranger to controversies and intense media speculation, why is Jayden the one who looks like his circle is a big problem?

The dude is such a horrible fit for this franchise and we all know it.  The only ones who are still lying to themselves about it are his cheerleaders in the media.  He needs to go to the Raiders.  An old, grizzled fan base on the East Coast won't put up with his act.  He is way too soft and too much of a diva to play in DC, NY, or New England.  He'll get eaten alive in those markets, not to mention he would greatly benefit from playing in a dome.

47 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Depends on how outsized a role she plays. If he's mostly shy and reserved and she...for lack of a better phrase..."wears the pants" and he does what she says and follows her lead then yeah, that could be problematic I'd think. 

She has an outsized role.  She's in the injury tent with him, which means she's on the sidelines during his games.  And she personally participated in recruiting violations at Arizona St.  She has had a completely inappropriate amount of program access for a player's parent, and I don't care who demanded that access between either her or Jayden, it's a red flag either way.

I think we all know why Jayden needed that huge suitcase on his visit.  His mom:

1 hour ago, Forehead said:

.  (Side note for those of your ranking OL, stay away from Caeden Wallace.)

What's wrong with Wallace?  I really liked the cut ups I saw from him.

54 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

Thanks for putting this together.

 

I’m not sure if you have heard this, but a few sources said that Kingsley S. transferred back to BYU because he missed home.

 

Being that he is only 21, there was concern that he may not be ready to be a pro and start on his own in a new city, etc.

 

If he slips in the draft that’s likely why, and I don’t really want another Docston situation.

 

Just food for thought.

I'd rather that be the reason he transferred than he couldn't crack the starting lineup at Oregon.  I had heard the rumors about him lacking maturity, and wondered what they were based on.  If that's what it is, and it's not a work ethic issue, then I would be fine taking a chance on him.  If it's a work ethic issue, then I would probably pass.

Bottom line for me is that I think his upside is so high that I'm willing to take risks on the personality.  This guy is a Penei Sewell type athlete where he was just blessed with elite physical might even be NFL standards.  The game is so much easier for guys like this.  We're going to see reps where he blocks TJ Watt with his left hand while helping out inside with the right.  He's the kind of player I would take a big swing in at 36.  Much as I love Jordan Morgan, he's just not as talented.  And he got touched up by Bralen Trice.

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

You're super low on Alt. I agree that he's not a slam dunk superstar LT but I think he'll be a high quality LT or RT for a decade+. Fashanu might end up being the better pass protector though and a more natural long term LT.

 

I'm with you on Fuaga though. Have loved him for quite some time. He might legit be going top 10. (Jets should take him 10th but they'll probably find a way to eff it up)

 

But there is a big mish mash of guys after and I'm not sure how to rank em. Like I don't think there is much discernible difference between, say, Guyton and Saumataia. Mims is such a massive Wild Card and I'm not sure we're in a position to take him(but he'd do really well on a team like the Ravens or 49ers).

 

Personally think Fautanu and Morgan are more Gs than Ts.

I've been lower on Alt than the consensus this entire time.  I have him in the early 20s.  I think he's good but not great.  I like his athleticism and balance and size, but what kills him for me is I think he has weak hands.  If a guy can't sustain his blocks, then he has a toughness/motor/functional strength issue that will follow him into the NFL and put a low ceiling on his pass protection.  And I value pass pro above any other skill for OTs.

The guy I'm far lower on than the consensus is Guyton.  I've got him OT15 and a third rounder at best. He can't hold blocks for **** and is not even a good college tackle.  All of the size and athleticism in the world is worth nothing in an OT that can't perform the basic requirement of blocking.

The hardest part of the rankings for me was Olu or Latham for OT2.  Latham has so much more power and nasty in him, but Fashanu is so much faster.  That call very much comes down to which traits you favor, and I ended up going with speed even though I think Latham's film is better.  Normally I try not to put traits over film for OLs, so I don't feel as confident in that ranking.

The most functionally powerful OL in the class is Kingsley Suamataia.  I've got him as a late teens, early 20s pick on my overall big board (still adjusting it).  I think he's the best all around athlete and biggest raw talent of any of the OLs.  I liked his film way more than I expected to going in, where I had the preconception that he was this super raw player whose film would be ugly.  Nope, his film is actually pretty good.  And then it finally clicked for me when I went back through the senior bowl videos and saw his drills in the context of all of the OLs.  This kid is dominatingly powerful and he has super heavy and fast hands.  He gets easy wins without conventional technique because he resets his hands so well and he is such a tenacious fighter with ridiculous natural strength.  I think mock drafters have been sleeping on his upside and that he's gotten lost in the crowd.  Getting him at 36 would be about a +15 value pick for me, and I think he should be a first rounder.

Fautanu was one of the hardest for me to place.  I think his game is ugly, but his tools are elite and his character is supposed to be outstanding.  He's going to work out for somebody, and I could see him ending up somewhere like the Rams and becoming a Pro Bowler.  There would be some years where he could be OT1 or OT2.

The most underrated OT in the class to me is Caedan Wallace.  He is better on film than Fashanu, and really doesn't have any weaknesses.  He's nasty, he's consistent, and he is a good athlete. I think he is a starter and the last of the second round picks.  I thought about putting him at OT10, but decided to shoot for more upside with Paul and Amegadjie and Fisher instead.  But I could accept a case for Wallace as OT10.  He's good and he's not really going to have to improve a ton to be good in the NFL.

I think Ethan Driskell is super underrated too.  His profile suggests a big stiff who can't bend or move and gets his ass kicked at the SB when he has to play against the big program guys, but he did well.  He's a tenacious pass blocker with elite size and length, and he was nasty.  Way tougher and more consistent than Guyton. He's the kind of day three project that interests me.

18 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

What stood out to me is the tempo and pace both GMAP and AGMLN speak.

GMAP is bad enough.  Just say Newmark.

This is my OT position ranking.  Not all of these guys are going to be on my top 100, but it will only be a couple that get left off.  Everyone already knows this, but my position rankings made it clear to me that WR and OT are the two strongest and deepest positions in this year's class.  Some of the others won't yield 20 draftable players, much less 20 worthy of going in the top 100.

1 - Taliese Fuaga
2 - Olu Fashanu
3 - JC Latham
4 - Kingsley Suamataia
5 - Joe Alt
6 - Amarius Mims
7 - Graham Barton
8 - Troy Fautanu
9 - Jordan Morgan
10 - Kiran Amegadjie
11 - Patrick Paul
12 - Blake Fisher
13 - Caedan Wallace
14 - Roger Rosengarten
15 - Tyler Guyton
16 - Isaiah Adams
17 - Ethan Driskell
18 - Javon Foster
19 - Dominick Puni
20 - Christian Jones

16 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

I thought you said that the team needs 4+ elite NFL starters? If those 2 in the first turn out to be elite then that is definitely more value than 2 depth players picked up in the 2nd.

Kingsley and Legette wouldn't be swings on obtaining depth players.  Legette's upside is Terry McLaurin/AJ Brown, and Kingsley's upside is Penei Sewell.  I'm also not sure Olu Fashanu's upside is as an elite player.  IMO the only OT in this year's class who is a strong bet to become an elite player is Fuaga.

Fashanu is legit, but I think Peters is going to earn his money and find value with those early seconds.  Personally, I think I would rather have Kingsley and Legette than just Fashanu, and I think it is realistic to get both at 36 and 40.

We can still have a home run draft without both 36 and 40, but it's harder to get a ton of value from our picks without those.  Especially when we'd be moving up to the mid teens and picking Fashanu around his slot.

8 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

Is that really who you think Keim is talking to? Really??

He's talking to Jay Gruden.  So he's talking to a high ranking idiot, but an idiot nonetheless.

The NFL is largely populated by Jay Grudens.  And many times, even when the people in charge are smart and not stupid like Jay, they are toxic and unprofessional nutjobs unfit for any kind of senior management job, like Daboll.  Joe Gibbs was one in a million, people like him are not the ones that make up the league.

More NFL owners than not are terrible people who build organizations with terrible culture, they manage their teams via whim, and their front offices are riddled with ego and unprofessionalism.

Peters went to a bunch of UNC practices.  He's known about Drake Maye for a while.  NFL personnel people absolutely track players who show NFL potential in future classes.  Not finalizing your evaluations on them is different than not scouting them.

24 minutes ago, Conn said:

This won’t happen but my tentative ideal might be Chop at 36, best OT at 40, then some combo of CB, WR, TE in the 3rd if it falls well for us 

Personally, I'm not that high on Chop.  Tools are as special as it gets, but he just isn't an impact player.  Maybe that changes if you give him a featured role in a Dan Quinn defense, I don't know.  But I don't like making those kinds of bets.  To me, Jonah Elliss, Bralen Trice, and Austin Booker are all much better players, all in that second tier of edge rusher behind the top four guys (Verse, Turner, Latu, D Robinson), and all likely to be cheaper than Chop.

My ideal scenario is to get Kingsley Suamataia and either Xavier Legette or Ladd McConkey or Kool-Aid McKinstry with 36 and 40.