Going Commando

47 minutes ago, mudhog said:

I don't see Gabriel Murphy on your EDGE list. What's the deal with him? Is he injured or have bad medicals or something? He's all over the board on mock drafts from 3rd round to 7th. But PFF power rankings have him solidly ranked around pick 110.

I left the Murphy brothers off my list because I didn't watch them.  I only watched Latu and they didn't go the to SB, so I never developed a take on them.  There were a couple of guys who would probably have made the list if I'd had time to watch them.  Gabe Hall, Ainias Smith, Edefuan Ulofoshio, etc.  I leave off players who I don't form takes on, because I'd rather not shoot in the dark.  I usually only focus on top 100 players because I find it difficult to go deeper than that, but this year I went 20 deep on the positions I spent the most time on.

3 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I think there will be a run on tackles second half of the first - I wasn’t thinking Paul would be among that group personally. Could well be wrong though!

Let someone reach for him.  I've been going back through the the tackles, rewatched the SB practices, and he just isn't as good as Fuaga, Morgan, and Suamataia.  Fuaga absolutely shut it down, he's a top ten pick and the OT1.  Even Guyton had better reps, although he still had some turd reps that were in character.  That guy either dominates his rep or gets utterly destroyed in the first two steps.  Paul looked like a JAG and spent a bunch of the week holding.  He's traitsy and his in game film is better than his practice week, but he's absolutely not a first round caliber player.  He's in that late second, early third round mix with Blake Fisher and Roger Rosengarten and Caedan Wallace.  I think he'll be there at 40 but I don't think he'll be anywhere close to BPA.  Not even sure he would be at 67.

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Glad to see someone else has him #1 as well. I wonder how much the medicals are going to effect him. Straight up beast though. 

I've got him sixth overall on my board.  I think he and Turner are the two elite defensive players of the class.  I'm almost there on Quinyon and Latu, but not quite.

Here are my defensive position rankings.  I keep moving people around, so I'm just going to post them and be done with it:

Edge:
1 - Jared Verse
2 - Dallas Turner
3 - Laiatu Latu
4 - Darius Robinson
5 - Chop Robinson
6 - Bralen Trice
7 - Austin Booker
8 - Jonah Elliss
9 - Chris Braswell
10 - Marshawn Kneeland
11 - Myles Cole
12 - Nelson Caesar
13 - Javon Solomon
14 - Jalen Green
15 - Mohamed Kamara
16 - Eric Watts
17 - Brennan Jackson
18 - Jalyx Hunt
19 - Xavier Thomas
20 - Braiden McGreggor

IDL:
1 - Byron Murphy
2 - Johnny Newton
3 - T'Vondre Sweat
4 - Kris Jenkins
5 - Braden Fiske
6 - Michael Hall
7 - Brandon Dorlus
8 - DeWayne Carter
9 - McKinley Jackson

10 - Marcus Harris
11 - Ruke Orhorhoro
12 - Jordan Jefferson
13 - Justin Eboigbe

LB:
1 - Payton Wilson
2 - Edgerrin Cooper
3 - Junior Colson
4 - Jeremiah Trotter Jr
5 - Cedric Gray
6 - Marist Liufu
7 - Nathaniel Watson
8 - Tommy Eichenberg
9 - Trevin Wallace
10 - Kalen Deloach

CB:
1 - Quinyon Mitchell
2 - Nate Wiggins
3 - Cooper Dejean
4 - Terrion Arnold
5 - Kool-Aid McKinstry
6 - Kamari Lassiter
7 - TJ Tampa
8 - Mike Sainristil
9 - Max Melton
10 - Renardo Green
11 - Jarrian Jones
12 - Ennis Rakestraw
13 - Khyree Jackson
14 - Elijah Jones
15 - Caelen Carson
16 - Cam Hart
17 - Kris Abrams-Draine
18 - Andrew Phillips
19 - Chau Smith-Wade
20 - Nehemiah Pritchett

S:
1 - Tyler Nubin
2 - Cole Bishop
3 - Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
4 - Tykee Smith
5 - Kam Kinchens
6 - Sione Vaki
7 - Javon Bullard
8 - Kitan Oladapo
9 - Jaylinn Simpson
10 - Jaden Hicks
11 - Calen Bullock

Here's the last of my offensive position rankings.  QB and TE.

QB:

1 - Caleb Wilson
2 - Drake Maye
3 - Jayden Daniels
4 - Michael Penix
5 - JJ McCarthy
6 - Bo Nix
7 - Spencer Rattler
8 - Michael Pratt
9 - Joe Milton

TE:

1 - Brock Bowers
2 - Ben Sinnott
3 - Ja'Tavion Sanders
4 - Cade Stover

5 - Jared Wiley
6 - Jaheim Bell
7 - Erick All
8 - Tip Reiman
9 - Dallin Holker

12 minutes ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

I love Zinter tape. I think there is a long line of athletes with leg fractures that never make it back.  I couldn’t take him before the 5th.

I'd trust my medical team to help make the call on his recovery, but it's definitely possible that he makes it back perfectly fine from his injury.  He's said there is a chance he'll be ready for rookie minicamps.  I'd expect him to be available by TC.

30 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I can't believe I'm going to have to spend likely the rest of my life dealing with Pats fans celebrating Maye's career. 

You're going to outlive us all my friend.  You'll be arguing about whether or not the fourth generation cyborg Manning is elite.

53 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Do you think he's there at 67?  I'd probably take him and redshirt him for at least half the season before taking him to be the LG of the future.  However, I could see someone like GB take him as they have two second rounders, so they can play the same game.  I like Zinter too.  

Yeah I think he'll be there at 67.  His injury kept him from building up his stock during draft season.  I think Beebe might still be there at 67 too, but my best guess is he goes in the 50s.

If we miss out on the Kingsley/Morgan/Barton shelf of OTs at 36, there will still be lots of BPA opportunities at IOL on day 2.  I like a draft where we trade down from 36 or 40 to get into the 50s, draft Beebe, then use a third on Zinter.  IMO that puts our best OL configuration at Wylie, Beebe, Biadasz, Zinter, Cosmi going from left to right.  And I think that line could be dominant.  Really good group to run the ball with and help our young QB out, much like Dallas did in the early days with Dak.

Corum is going to get picked in the third round IMO.  I think all of the RBs this year are getting discounted by at least a round compared to where they would normally go.  Corum's age and tiny size put his absolute draft ceiling in the second round, and he's much more likely to go in the third.  A Beebe/Corum/Zinter string of picks would make me happy, and still leave a pick to get someone like Bralen Trice in the third following the trade down for Beebe.

26 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Now where would you stick some guys from OT to IOL if you were forced to do it. Like Barton, Morgan, Rosengarten, etc etc

Rosengarten at IOL6 ahead of McCormick.  Barton would be IOL2 behind Beebe for me.  Morgan would be IOL3 behind JPJ.

I think Morgan stays at OT though.  I also would be surprised if a team kicks Rosengarten inside given his speed.  Usually you want your fast guys who may not be as powerful on the outside.  Ultimately, these guys will have to play where the starting jobs for their next teams are, so you can't really tell where they will end up.  I would just expect there to be more OT job openings.

I'm revising my IOL rankings.  Went back and re-watched some cut ups and ended up moving a couple of players around.  Moved Frazier and Zinter and Beebe and Van Pran up.  I liked Frazier's film a lot more this time, and I'm seeing more of the optimistic takes about him better now.  Moved Zinter way up too.  One of the byproducts of watching Corum so much is that Zinter really shines.  He's a dominant run blocker and he's got a fantastic anchor.  I think he, Beebe, Van Pran, and JPJ constitute the four elite IOLs of the class, and all have second round value.

IOL:

1 - Cooper Beebe
2 - Jackson Powers Johnson
3 - Sedrick Van Pran
4 - Zak Zinter
5 - Christian Haynes
6 - Mason McCormick
7 - Beaux Limmer
8 - Zach Frazier
9 - Christian Mahogany
10 - Kingsley Eguakun

44 minutes ago, BrentMeisterGeneral said:

 

IMO, he should be really excited about playing here, because it’s here or NE and our roster looks in better shape than theirs.

Nobody with options is excited to play here.  That's the hard truth about this franchise.  A current player doesn't care if we might finally be a nice place to play, with top notch facilities and a fully resuscitated brand in 5-10 years.  Teammates come and go every year, and we don't have any name brand studs on the entire roster anyway.

It's going to take a lot of time and improvement before this place becomes somewhere players want to play.

3 minutes ago, Conn said:

I don’t think it’s about investing energy, it’s about installing operational security forever more moving forward as an organization. The last regime was not just full of leaks, it was an open book. Setting the tone going forward and holding people in the building to that level of secrecy is not really any special allocation of time, energy, or resources—it’s just setting a new standard that people are expected to follow. It’s not about tricking anyone, just being hard for everyone to read always. 

Yeah. There's no advantage for us in leaking our picks either.  Last year the Texans were cagey about picking Stroud up until they were on the clock because they didn't want Carolina to know they liked Stroud over Young.  If we come right out and advertise we love Daniels or Maye, then maybe Chicago starts taking a second look at them.  And that's not something we want.  There is only downside in revealing your picks before you are on the lock.

3 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Apparently the LB Payton Wilson doesn't have an ACL in his right knee.

What??  Don't you need one of those to bend your knee?

6 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Nobody ever was remotely like Barry in '88. I've never seen anything like that or even close to it, since. You are definitely way way way higher on Corum than anyone I've ever come across the past year. It will be interesting if this eval proves out. Personally I don't see it. I think he's a solid round 3 prospect, I don't think he's particular special, especially post injury, but I think he should be fine w/his skill set, able to carry a committee or win a job, but difference maker w/elite talent in the way of an AP, a Taylor, a Breece Hall or Gibbs, Bijan etc. Just don't see the same player. I just see a solid decent back that will belong.

 

W/regards to Barry, there's some footage out there, I was just in 8th grade when it happened, but what stuck out for me beyond the footage was the guy just ran off 200+ yard games every week for a crappy team in the was it Big 12 or SWAC or what? Can't remember back then. It was insane, and when you watch him, the hips, explosion, change of direction were just orders of magnitude superior to anything I'd ever seen before or since. Closest was maybe Faulk, but Faulk didn't have the "alien" quality he had, but he did have the explosion piece. 

I think Corum is one of the exceptional players that catches both the analytics and traditional eye test scouting people napping.  His age is a long term issue, but it also means that he's probably going to be good immediately.  And not just by rookie standards, but potential top five back standards if he ends up on a team like San Diego or Dallas where there is a major workload waiting for him.  I remember seeing a stat earlier in this thread about how bad his yards after contact/forced missed tackles ratings were compared to other backs in the class, and thinking to myself "something doesn't feel right about that."  What was going on finally clicked for me when I watched his magnificent 15 minute long career highlight video:

His running is so phenomenally good that defenders aren't even getting into position to attempt a real tackle on him.  Whether they are unblocked in the hole or at the edge.  He's one of the most unique outside zone runners I've ever seen at the college level, and certainly one of the best at following downfield blocks.  I have never seen someone so comfortable and efficient at cutting back or even reversing field on outside zone runs before.  That's just not done in D1 football and up, and it's so next level to me.  And when it comes to backfield creation, he presses the hole so well, that plays where normal good runners have to do something creative to make the first guy miss don't even typically come up for him.  And yet he never runs up the back of his blocks.  It's ridiculously good pace and timing--God given instincts and quickness.

He is so good, that I'm struggling to explain to myself why I'm resisting putting him in my top 20.  Guys who make high level football look easy, like they're playing Pop Warner at the Power 5 level are special.  Sometimes you just need to turn your brain off and enjoy a special player, and that's what I think needs to be done with Corum.

8 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Kingsley won't be there at 36 IMO.  KC and NE would easily take him IMO.  I'm starting too think he'll go above Guyton.

He had a team visit with New England.  I think there is a good chance he goes at 34.  Yes, there is a big chance that New England comes away with Drake Maye and Kingsley Suamataia.

5 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Rosengarten's arm length is below 34''. He's a G in the NFL. I'd take him but not at 40 or before. At 67 though sure.

Yeah.  40 is a reach by at least a full round for Rosengarten.  That would give me Aaron Banks vibes.

2 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

Lol GC = @Going Commando

 

May need to set up a safe space for him and SoCal if Thursday plays out the way everyone thinks it will

If we pick Jayden Daniels and the Giants end up with Drake Maye, I'm going to go ahead and ban myself.

51 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

We are gonna make other teams defend every blade of grass. Exciting to think about.

Except for the ones between the numbers.

18 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It won't be it for me, it will just be a further diminishment of my attention. This team had about 80-90% of my sporting attention 1979-1993, and probably 70-75% of it 1994-2012, but the past decade its dropped to 10-20%, and botching this will drop it further. I just have other teams either performing far better and giving me much more joy on a consistent level, or at least building properly. Nothing about this pick makes sense to me at all, the good news is I'm wrong a large percentage of the time on who will be great, the bad news is guys Im convinced will be bad almost always are. Otoh, I don't really feel the same way I did about Zach Wilson or Pickett, where I was nearly 100% sure, the bad news is its kind of close to that. 

My fandom has been hanging by a thread for years.  This is the best shot we've had at genuinely escaping NFL poverty in a generation.  If we blow it, I'm not going to tolerate getting kicked in the nuts by this team any more.  Especially if we blow it in a way that I felt was totally predictable and avoidable.  I'm not going to give up on the NFL, but I'll stop watching the Commanders.

38 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

You should listen to Cooley, just to challenge your own take. He has no agenda, he didn’t watch college football, and when he wants to he dives deep into the film.His player breakdowns were fantastic.

 

He really likes Maye, for all of the reasons you describe. He concedes he could be the best of the group a few years from now (he was very high on Josh Allen, he’s a tools guy) But I think he is also more realistic about the serious risks/negatives in his film (both feet and above the neck) And he also references watching 2022 film.

 

Maye has superior arm strength and arm talent, according to Cooley. But he would take Daniels over Caleb and Maye. He wants Maye to improve but he’s too much of a risk/project for him.

 

You don’t have to agree with any of this. But when Daniels is the pick it might be helpful for you to hear it.

I hear you.  But I don't need my leg pissed on about Daniels.  He can work out, I understand his strengths, and I wouldn't second guess picking him if we were at #3 and Maye was gone.   But nothing anyone says is going to make it any better if we pick him and he busts and Maye hits.  Peters just needs to be right if he picks Daniels.

19 minutes ago, Conn said:

No…you install the offense that is the best fit for the best prospect you grade out “period”. You don’t make a pick based on an OC or his system at all, across the entire league there’s ONE Offensive Coordinator who’s been in place for more than two years. One.  

Yeah.  Kingsbury is the quintessential mercenary too, with a talent for latching on to bigger talents and failing upward.  I would make zero long term plans for anything concerning him.  I also wouldn't spend the second overall pick in the draft with a one year vision.  Recapturing 2012 is not the best this franchise can do, I'm not listening to assholes like RGIII telling me I should be happy with that.  I want us to tell the league to **** off with this "take Jayden Daniels and be happy and let the good teams get the franchise QB" crap.   

Just now, Idaho fan said:

What if they pick Maye and he busts and Daniels goes on to succeed?  Would that be it for you too?

No.  I think they'll have made the best call they could have pre-draft.  Picking Maye is following best practices for drafting a franchise QB, and it's what I would do if I were in charge.  Picking Jayden over him is a super speculative prayer based on bad process, and it's a call I would never make.

I can't be better at picking players from my couch than the team I root for, and still maintain faith in the organization.

43 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Still feel like Daniels over Maye is a colossal blunder but Ill learn to live with it.

If they pick Jayden and he busts, and Maye goes on to succeed, that's going to be it for me.  So they better be right if they do.

7 minutes ago, TheGoodBits said:

I think there’s too much out there from reliable reports to think the narrative is BS. So I fully expect the pick to be Daniels, but if it is not, it’s probably not based on that is on tape

I wouldn't pick Daniels over Maye based on tape.  Maye's tape is prototype star NFL QB.  Jayden's tape is gimmicky college star with a bad body, a mediocre arm, an allergy to throwing before the break, sketchy placement on vertical throws and crossers, and a running style that will get him injured at the next level.

I can look at the current best QBs in the NFL and see how players like Maye translate into success.  I have to go back to a player from the late 80s to find that kind of example for Daniels.

****ing RGIII.  No I do not want another 2012.  I want an annual contender for the next 15 years.  How pathetic is it that 2012 has become our Glory Days for anyone who didn't grow up in the 80s?

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As to the Daniels doesn't want to be here narrative.   No doubt he's tight with Pierce.  And there is some noise on that.  But otherwise

 

We've come full circle when Florio > Keim as a trusted source.

 

Can't wait until Thursday.  

It's not Florio that gave that narrative credibility, it's Schefter.