Going Commando

4 minutes ago, Panninho said:

The Commanders are doing their own thing, that's for sure

They are.  And it makes me uncomfortable.  We always try and do everything our own way, and it never works.  Why can't we ever just copy what the successful teams do?  Why do we always have to take a dump on conventional wisdom?

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tough for me to believe they all secretly prefer Maye but will say the opposite publicly in the hope that group think overtakes Peters' process and takes the wrong player -- and the rest of the NFL much prefers NE where they've embraced their long league dominance, upset about the recent hiccup and they hope NE's domance re-emerges?

 

I get trying to do it but how would it actually succeed?

I don't think the media mouthpieces have many original thoughts or takes.  I think they generally just regurgitate takes given to them by chatty teams and agents, and I think that's mainly who has been pushing the Jayden to DC story in the hopes they can influence outcomes.  And yeah, I absolutely think the broader world doesn't want Maye to end up here.  They either want him for themselves or they just don't see him being successful here.

19 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I shouldn't be speaking for him, but honestly when it comes to looking at those guys, I think what Commando and I both have is our Zach Wilson/Trey Lance/Danny Dimes going off like a fire alarm. At

I'd say that is the essence of it for me.  I don't have nearly enough confidence in the bet on Daniels to beat the confidence I have in the bet on Maye.  I think Maye is about as good a bet as a team can get on picking a QB high.  I think he looks like the QBs who are the best in the league, I think his upside is in their world, and I think his fit for this franchise is close to ideal.  I don't think any of that is the case with Daniels.  Could he work out?  Absolutely.  But why take the long shot?

The groupthink about Jayden also makes me angry because I think it is so inaccurate.  I don't like being gaslit or sold a bunch of BS.  It feels like the reason so many of the talking heads are comfortable foisting Daniels off on us is because they think we're the ****ty little brother of the NFL and they would rather see Maye end up on one of the good franchises.

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So why assume Peters is going to blow this? 

We'll see what happens on draft night, maybe he takes the QB that I think is the no-brainer choice.  But why assume that he's not going to blow this?  To me, blind faith in this franchise is way more ridiculous than trusting your own eyes.

At the end of the day, we have no power to influence outcomes.  I do understand the coping technique of placing blind faith in whoever seems to have power in the moment, it's just something I'm unwilling to do any more.  That's not fun to me.

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

And heck if I genuinely believed it was that level ridiculous as to the choice being that level clear, I'd have zero fear that they aren't take Maye.  Zero. 

Why?  Where does your rock solid confidence in this team's ability to get it right come from?

19 minutes ago, Conn said:

I get it, I can be an extremely opinionated person as well. I even agree with you on Maye vs Daniels. But in this case, I don’t think such certainty is healthy or rational. We’ve all completely whiffed and been loud wrong on QB prospects in recent years, including you. 

My friend, the healthy and rational choice was to cut bait on this franchise a long time ago.  And even if our team was good and not terrible, what we've been doing here for the past 20 years is participating in the dude version of fangirl chat boards for Ru Paul's Drag Race.  It's fundamentally irrational and unhealthy.

What's the response going to be from everyone if we draft Jayden and he ends up being the next Justin Fields, and Drake Maye ends up being the next Josh Allen?

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

I hope I'm wrong, but this "group outing" seems like such a transparent attempt to see who emerges as the "leader" or "alpha" of the group.  Pretty cringeworthy, IMO, if that's the case.

I don't know what's going on, but I wouldn't read to much into this scheduling crunch.  It could be nothing more than having to work around the schedules of the players themselves.  They are traveling all over to meet with teams right now.

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Admittedly, his deep ball is excellent with really good placement,

I don't think it is.  I think the placement on his deep ball is erratic, and it's not so much the overthrows, it's the leaving it inside and short so often that worry me.  So many plays where Brian Thomas had to hold up waiting on the ball or run back toward the field to track the ball.  Those are turnover throws in NFL zones.  So are the floating ducks he throws to the far hash flat.  So are the plays where he takes to long to pull the trigger on crossers and puts it behind.  And so are the plays when he rolls into an occupied flat and has to pick his eyes back up and look for options down field after losing his picture, and nothing is open down the sideline for him.

51 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I just dont see Zona passing up on a sure fire stud at a premium position of need. MH even asked Zona brass if he should work out at his pro day and they told him dont bother. Hes going to Arizona. Dont over think it.

Even if Minnesota comes calling with a big trade offer to get to 4?

If something feels like easy money in gambling, that's how you lose your shirt.

31 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

I think you are right.  There are rumors on the internet (see link) that when Minnesota approached Arizona about trading 11 and 23 plus maybe some change for 4, Arizona said they would only trade for 3 first rounders.  Under most trade charts 11 and 23 only equal number 4 (under the Jimmy Johnson trade chart 11 and 23 are worth 2010 points vs 4 being worth 1800 points).   Thus Arizona's positions seems to be that we are taking Marvin Harrison unless somebody is willing to overpay by an entire first round pick.  If somebody is willing to overpay by that much, we'll do business with you, other wise , we are sitting put... 

 

That ancient Jimmie Johnson chart doesn't account for the modern price of QBs.  If you want to move up multiple spots to get into the top four for a QB in the draft, the going rate is three first round picks.  And usually, one of them needs to be valued high, aka a future pick with a reasonable chance at ending up in the top ten.  11 and 23 is nowhere near enough to get to four for a QB.  That's a drop that takes Arizona totally out of elite prospect range.  Minnesota is going to have to add a future first, or a player who can stand in equivalent value to a first.

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

This is where I am landing, too. I’m not sure it’s a mistake yet - I see the value. But there are major concerns there as far as frame and I’m curious what he can do against NFL defenses with lesser weapons, too. I don’t know, something feels a bit off with him to me. I think he takes a specific circumstance that I’m not sure this program is ready for.

His game feels very smoke and mirrors to me.  It's fundamentally limited, he does everything he can to conceal those limitations, and it did take a very specific circumstance over five years of college ball for him to finally appear to be an early round NFL prospect.  I don't think his accuracy, field vision, playmaking instincts, or arm talent are special at all.  I don't want us to be the team that gets stuck holding the bag when everyone realizes that the emperor has no clothes with this kid, and oh yeah lol I guess we over thought it with Drake Maye.  Who could have known?  Oh well, in X GM to follow Adam Peters I trust.  I can be dumb, but I wonder if that outcome would finally get the lesson to stick for me that my team is a hopeless, bottom tier franchise?

13 hours ago, Conn said:

I understand the release is quick and the mechanics are tight and the footwork is square and the stroke is repeatable…but I just don’t like the ball coming out of Daniels’ hand. Every throw looks like he’s trying to feather in a touch pass over the top without ideal velocity. I’m probably not explaining it well but it’s not just an “arm strength” thing. It doesn’t matter whether I watch cut-ups, highlights, analyst breakdowns…I have a hard time doing what I’m trying to do, which is fall in love with Daniels at least a fraction of the amount I have with Maye—because I want to be happy/satisfied/hopeful either way. And intellectually, I’ve mostly gotten there. I nod along on paper with why I should be excited about Daniels if he’s the pick (while still allowing for the flaws I’m worried about to keep me grounded on it). But I just can’t get away from the fact that I don’t experience joy watching Daniels throw the ball. I just don’t.  

I'm convinced drafting Daniels over Maye is a mistake, and I don't have any interest in rationalizing or normalizing a mistake.  I can't cope with a loss of faith in the team by trying to trick myself.  I'm just going to have to take a step back if/when we do it, and accept that my expectations got too high.  This team is not worth high blood pressure.

5 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Does betting over mean they get picked after the number? 

 

I'd bet the house on Under for Harrison jr if its at 4.5. He is a lock to go to Arizona at the latest at 4.

Unless the top four are QBs or Nabers goes before him.

1 hour ago, Dah-Dee said:

These are weak arguments against Daniels being the pick and just make Maye supporters look bad/desperate. The better arguments are the obvious ones: Daniels' lesser arm strength, bad stable metrics, propensity to run vs. pass under pressure, apparent reluctance to throw over the middle, reckless running combined with a slight frame. 

The arguments that look bad to me are the ones that ignore reality, like claiming there wasn't an ocean of difference in the quality of the situation Daniels and Maye played in last year.  Do you really want to claim that Tez Walker wasn't that much worse than Marvin Harrison Jr because of drop rates?  Do you really want to claim that Omarion Hampton was the reason UNC won the Duke game?  That is the kind of specious nonsense that looks bad.  That Clemson game you're citing as evidence of the quality of Drake's supporting cast?  OMarion Hampton fumbled the ball into the endzone on his big run and caused a touchback, and Tez Walker dropped a 40 yard bomb that hit him in his hands in the fourth quarter that would have kept the game from getting out of hand.  Having one decent weapon is nothing like having three great ones, nevermind the massive difference in quality of the OLs.  And the differences in situation extend well beyond the other players in the offense.  UNC was dysfunctional last year, the coaches were a mess and struggled with just getting plays in during games.  The staff at LSU was legitimately excellent.  They had a magical season whereas Drake Maye spent the year bailing water for a sinking program.  Ignoring this huge difference in situation is sticking your head in the sand.  And so is ignoring the difference in the way each player responded to program dysfunction.  Jayden played like crap in 2021 and then transferred out, with his mom badmouthing the team.

8 hours ago, skinny21 said:

It’s a huge advantage for Daniels, and one of several reasons I lean towards Maye.  I do have a question though - those two were with him in 2022, so why do they become the rationale (or maybe primary driver) for his improvement in 2023?

They were good in 2022 and became dominant in 2023.  Nabers was good but made the leap to best WR in the country in 23, and Thomas made an even bigger individual leap. The OL also got really good in 23.  Kayshon Boutte was pretty good in 2022, but Kyren Lacy is better and will probably end up being a better NFL prospect.  It's crazy how good LSU is at putting these receiver rooms together.

It's also crazy how much NFL talent at receiver and RB Jayden has played with in college.  Even at AZ St he got to play with Rachaad White, Eno Benjamin, Ricky Pearsall, Johnny Wilson, and Brandon Aiyuk.  That's a better group of skill players than Drake Maye played with at UNC.  Jayden never had to carry the load the same way, or worry about unreliability or an inability to run the ball or win on the outside.  His mom looks really ugly for trashing those guys when he transferred, not to mention she was just wrong about them not being good enough.  Now Pearsall and Wilson are going to be Day 2 draft picks.

I like Latham's film, but I don't feel good about his offseaon.  I don't get why he ducked every bit of testing.  I'll still probably have him ahead of Alt, but it's not a confident ranking.  Alt is low maintenance and safe.

31 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But for Maye specifically, I'll double down that his running is super underrated.

What are you quoting from?  The hesitancy of that Josh Allen comp is exasperating to me.  Duh.  The comparisons to Josh Allen are impossible to miss.  The play where he completed the pass to JJ Jones as he was being taken to the ground in the Duke game, Tim Hasselbeck straight up says that is a Josh Allen play.  And it was the third time he did that in the game.  Then he ****ing literally pulled the Josh Allen signature move and jumped over Jaylen Stinson.  If people watch that Duke game and can't see Josh Allen all over his play, the they're hopeless at evaluating college QBs.

Watched Brian Thomas's targets from last season, and there were only a couple where Jayden threw to him at the field side flat from the far hashes.  But when he did, that ball took a loooong time to arrive.  Jayden has a quick release but he does not have anywhere near Maye's arm talent.  He has no strength in his game.  If he doesn't get to load up on deep throws, the placement is usually off and he puts his WRs to work tracking the ball down.  The concerning part is how many vertical throws end up short or back inside of the WR, because those are going to turn into picks in NFL windows.  He's also habitually late on crossers and too many of those end up being behind.  He's throwing them to the big versions of Tyreek Hill and Devonta Smith.  That ball needs to be in front of them.  A reason he avoided the middle of the field, even when he had really big openings, is because he put the ball behind on those throws so much.

The more I watch him, the crazier the groupthink feels about him to me.  It is astounding to me that so many people think he's better than Maye.

34 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

It seems like you are high on Brian Thomas.  The NFL PFF podcast hate as both those hosts don't have him the first round.   They think he is a deep threat only guy (and routes that work off the deep route like comebacks).  He doesn't have a lot of short or immediate route running skills so those will have to be developed.  They think his drop percentage is a bit too high for him to be an elite deep threat.  They don't hate him, but they both have him more in that 8-10 range.   How do you see him?

I think he's a rock solid first rounder and have him WR4.  I'm working on my big board, but right now I have Thomas 14.  He's a beast on crossers and quick outs, not just a great deep threat with elite speed and ball tracking ability.  He's 6'4 with elite speed and he's got legit finesse skills and wiggle.  I wouldn't overthink it with him.

47 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Yeah. I don't live and die with my teams the way I did when I was younger anyway, but my interest in this team has been low for quite a while and not believing in what they are doing after finally getting rid of Dan would just keep on a very back burner for me. 

This is what happened to me with the Wizards.  I went from watching all of their games to zero of them and stopped following the team because they became boring and impossible to buy into.  I'm only going to sit through the dreck product if I can believe there is a clear path to competitiveness on the horizon.  Being a fan isn't some ritual that I'll perform regardless of whether or not my team is competitive.  An entertainment product can't be boring, and bad teams with no future are boring.  I'm not on board for some seven year trust the process style rebuild to get to an intermittent middle seed.  I've already reached a saturation point with bull**** from this franchise.

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

You/we really don’t have any other option. Well apart from stopping watching/caring. 
 

What we think plus $5 will buy you a latte.

This is why being a fan who gets as invested in this team as we do is a fool's errand.  This is such a a bad franchise, it's not fun being a fan for it.

If this off-season is a bust, I think it's going to be pretty hard to care about the team any more.  Football is a great game, and the NFL is a great show, but following a specific team is boring when they can't compete.  The Commanders are boring.  They need a rebuild that I can actually believe in to sustain my interest, because I can find better hobbies.

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

I broadly agree with you on the reasons for Maye over Daniels - that’s why I lean towards him. But I still think if you can feel good about a player at 3 you can feel good about him at 2. 

I wouldn't feel good about him at three.  I'd just feel better about him than any of the alternatives, including not taking any QB.

18 minutes ago, MartinC said:

This makes no sense to me. I lean toward Maye but think Daniel’s is also a very strong option. 
 

There are others who don’t rate Daniel’s highly and I can totally respect that opinion. I assume those posters would not want us to pick Daniel's if we were picking 3rd overall. But if you think he’s worth the third overall pick being concerned if we took him one pick earlier does not seem very logical to me.

It's a concern when it means picking him over a way better prospect in Maye.

At three, with Maye off the board, I'd say **** it and go with an option I had far less confidence in.  Our options would be much more limited, and you've got to have a QB.  Gotta pick somebody.  But why on Earth would I settle for that bet when the kid who looks exactly like almost all of the other best QBs in the league is sitting there at my pick?

2 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I'm pissed too, I cant for the life of me believe why they'd be this <expletive> stupid, but it doesn't change the fact that its highly likely if we do ---- can him if Daniels hits his floor, we are going to be replacing Peters with an inferior GM 19 times out of 20, more than likely and just as bad, we cannot and will not find a guy who is better at making this precise decision, they all suck at this. Just some are lucky and some aren't. 

Why are we assuming Peters is a good GM?  If anything, ****ing the dog on QB in this class would be proof that he's not a good GM.

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's not like we got garbage WRs right now.   We need a third, I don't think the 3rd has to be an insanely good.  But someone who can seperate and make contested catches.  Jayden's not scared to make the deep throws.   It's the 2nd level.  He's somewhat like Russell Wilson has been in the pros in that he prefers the flat, good deep and throwing outside the numbers versus in between the numbers.

 

I think the first level YAC WR is in play for Daniels, too.  He does well with those throws.  Corley, Malik Washington, players like that who excel from the flat.  

The whole reason to draft Jayden over Maye is to try and reproduce his offense from last season.  You want the guy who can gash teams for playing man coverage against him.  But in order to do that, you need speed and elite outside weapons.  You need guys who torch zone and force super soft man coverage carried deep.  You want weapons that will force a DB to cover with his back turned to the LoS for 8 seconds on the play clock.  You want to run vertical offense and you do not want your flats to constantly be occupied because you want them cleared out for Jayden to run through.  Guys like Corley are not a good fit with a Jayden Daniels offense.

You also definitely need to load up your pass pro in order for him to even opt to throw shallow crossers.  He waits forever to pull the trigger on these things.

This is why I don't think people are acknowledging just how limited a Jayden Daniels offense really is.  It's high maintenance, there are big parts of the field you're barely going to use in the passing game, and it's going to get easy to defend come playoff time.

37 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Based on the draft value chart(antiquated I know but it does give you an idea), 36 + 40 = 15. Its a bit of a steep price to pay, and assuming we draft Daniels I don't think the need for a pass catching TE is as high anymore. Trading up for Fashanu at that point would make more sense, but ultimately I'd rather keep those two high 2nds.

 

I think the most I'm willing to give up to move back into the first would be some combo of one of our 2nds and one of our 3rds. And maybe a 5th round pick swap as the cherry on top. I think that would get us to like 23 or so.

If we go up to 15, it needs to be for Brian Thomas.

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But yeah in general, i don't think one QB needs more than the other. It's that they are different ways to amplify their strengths.  

Disagree.  If you want Jayden to be able to make plays, then you have to load up your OL and receiver room.  He's never played without high quality outside receivers, and he just isn't as good at managing pressure or making quick reads and decisions as Maye.  He doesn't see the whole field as well.  Maye has eyes in the back of his head and spent two years making tons of big time plays against pressure.

Picking Daniels needs to be followed up by an effort to get Brian Thomas.  Either that, or we need to go big game hunting for a current star.  Jefferson, Aiyuk, Waddle, somebody of that caliber.  Jayden needs somebody to help him speed up the process in order to succeed.

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

Depends what else they do re the roster development and coaching job. Should John Lynch and Kyle be fired?

 

But a lot has to go right to survive a QB picked at #2 busting.

If they hadn't hit the Hail Mary of all Hail Marys with Mr Irrelevant, then yeah.

But they also never had to give Trey Lance a real shot because of Purdy.  Shanny probably could have made it work with Lance too if he hadn't messed up his leg.  He's a QB whisperer.