Going Commando

Seeing the way Deion and Shedeur Sanders behave on social media, I'm so glad we're not in the market for a 2025 QB.

20 hours ago, seantaylor=god said:

I think it’s reasonable to expect this class to net 4-5 starters

Five picks in the top 67 should net 4-5 starters.  We had to trade three starters to get this ammo.

On 4/30/2024 at 10:38 AM, method man said:

Slater is one example. I can’t name many tackles with 33 inch arms who are studs at the position in the example. Year after year, there are college tackles with short arms who the draft community pushes as tackles in the pros and, more often than not, they move inside. Alijah Vera Tucker is a great recent example of this.

There aren't many stud tackles period, but there are many more on the list of the current best tackles in the NFL with 33" arms than 36" arms.  It's overrated as a determinant of success.  Penei Sewell was the top graded OT in the NFL according to PFF, and he has 33 1/4" arms.  Braden Smith was the sixth highest graded OT, and his arm length is 32 1/4".  Bernhard Raimann was the eighth highest graded OT and his was 32 7/8.  Taylor Decker was ninth, and his arm length is 33 3/4.  Rob Havenstein has the same arm length and he was 14th in the NFL.  Zach Thom was 15th and his arm length is 33 1/4".  Slater was 17th and has already been discussed, but his arms are 33" flat.  Kaleb McGary's arms are 32 7/8 and he was tied for 20th.

That's eight of the top 20 OTs in the league last season with less than 34" arms.

Arm length isn't going to hold Cosmi back from playing tackle.  He got moved inside because we lost Scherff and signed Wylie.  He played RT as a rookie and was good.  He only struggled at RT in year two because he played most of the season hurt and got moved back and forth on a line that had to constantly shuffle personnel due to injury.  Good linemen are good linemen, and he has spent more of his career at tackle than guard.  If we didn't have Wylie, he'd probably be playing tackle still.  And if Wylie gets hurt, there is a good chance he'll have to kick back outside to tackle unless Coleman is ready to play as a rookie.

There's not a good, objective way to grade our classes.  Just going on numerical value minus reach scores doesn't work, because a reach at the end of the draft shouldn't matter in comparison to reaches at the beginning.  Should there be some consideration about accurately drafting compared to our teams' real draft class?  What if we are accurate with our picks in that regard, but our team makes bad picks?  We have at least three objectives here, and they can contradict each other:

1 - to pick good players

2 - to pick the players that our teams realistically would

3 - to pick players after they are actually drafted in the real draft

So in assessing my own class, Jarrian Jones at 96 feels like my best pick because that's what actually happened on draft day.  But that also means a +0 value, and it's also not going to be an impressive pick in the ultimate consideration of the class if he ends up being a scrub. 

Then let's say you pick a player 50 picks early in the second round, and it looks like you committed a -50 reach and that it was one of your worst picks.  But that player ends up being an All Pro, and in reality, you've outpicked both the NFL and your real team.

Finally, let's say that I picked Michael Penix as the Jacksonville Jaguars this year, and he ends up being a star IRL.  That pick would have been a value pick where I chose a star QB, so it seems like it should be considered a home run.  Except that Michael Penix is a completely unrealistic pick for Jacksonville, and the reality is he would probably be the third stringer there.  So how do we assess that?

2 hours ago, Command The 414 said:

Drafting Newton to me is like going to Home Depot needing Sheetrock and spackle along with Paint cause you added a extra bedroom to your basement and only had enough funds to account for that but along the way you saw this beautiful light fixture and knew it would go great in your dining room area so you bought it but buying it you weren’t able to get the spackle you needed to finish the drywall

Building an NFL team is like building a tower, not a house.  The competition isn't over who can build the most complete house, it's over who can build the tallest tower.  The players are all building blocks of the same shape and basic function, but where they differ is in size.  The best players are the biggest blocks.  If every team is restricted to building with 53 blocks, then the ones who get the most big blocks are the ones that will win. 

Need-drafting stems from looking at the problem of building a team with constricted resources wrong.  It's misunderstanding the true competition in the sport, and the end result is a team that doesn't have enough talent to compete.

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

For the Beebe lovers here, can be play Center? Cowboys fans are saying he'll compete for starting Center job.

Probably.  I get the logic to try and work around your first round pick, but the obvious solution is to play Guyton at RT, Smith at LT, and bench Steele because he sucks.

He makes plays against man coverage too.  I think he kind of has a reputation for being a zone beater, but his man grades are better than his zone.  He's got good strength and toughness and he's a no frills route runner who efficiently creates separation early in the concept.

12 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It's so utterly asinine that it underlines why I don't view anyone as good at this, including Peters, hopefully we're just lucky. We deserve it anyway. No team has gone longer without drafting and developing a true franchise QB that mattered than us (Baugh). 

I hope we're lucky too.  I wanted Maye and still wish we had picked him, but I'm very glad that we picked Jayden instead of McCarthy #2.  It's a super negative hypothetical for me that I don't want to unnecessarily ponder.  We got a QB that has legit big play capability, and I don't have to worry about a scenario where that wouldn't have been the case.

I think franchise QBs are more made than found, and that's why I'm still optimistic about this build.  Guys like Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, even Patrick Mahomes were all made into franchise QBs by the situations they got drafted into.  None had the kind of can't-miss pre-cast greatness of a Lawrence, Luck, or Burrow where they were almost immune to situational instability (although the Bengals found a gem in Zac Taylor).  They got forged by their teams.  Excellent stability, excellent coaching, excellent culture, excellent supporting talent, and a sincere commitment to their development--all of that was necessary for them to be successful, and all of them would have been busts if they had they ended up in a place like DC during the time they came into the league.

Our hope is that the conditions here for developing a franchise QB are right this time.  Harris, Peters, and Quinn are all on the same timeline of the build, all on the same page about Jayden, and Peters and Quinn are 100% married to him.  They're going to do everything they can to make sure he works out.  If he doesn't, then it'll probably be due to injuries that are beyond our control at this point. 

Health provided, I think it's going to work too.  They made building a championship caliber defense a huge priority, and I think they are going to pull it off.  An elite defense is a big part of a QB development cradle, because it gives them the ability to make mistakes and go through growing pains.  Most prospects are not like a Matt Stafford or Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck, where they can come in and be almost immediately competitive while running an expansive passing game and carrying the burden of their team's competitiveness on their shoulders.  Most QBs need a training wheels offense and the opportunity to get the ball back when drives stall or the ball gets turned over.  And all QBs suffer in development from playing uncompetitive football.  Being able to still compete at the highest level of the sport while running a limited passing offense is how guys like Roethlisberger, Brady, and Wilson got the very, very long runway to grow into future HoFers.  We still have a lot of work to do, but I think the foundation of our defense is outstanding.

The team that picked JJ McCarthy didn't even have JJ McCarthy over Drake Maye.  I find it hard to believe that we did.

13 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

I do feel some vindication

 

"The truth is, the Commanders, the two quarterbacks that they had in consideration at No. 2 were Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy,"

That actually makes me feel worse about the competency of our FO, if true.

3 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

I disagree with this. While Cosmi's athleticism was never in question his size was. His length and wingspan were always too small for an OT.

 

It was always a knock on him as a prospect with a Guard conversion likely. If he actually had an OT body his athleticism would have gone in Round 1 instead of late Round 2.

 

For reference, I believe Jordan Morgan's wingspan is closer to average, while Cosmi's is something like 15th percentile.

He has the exact same arm length and wingspan as All Pro tackle Rashawn Slater.  His arms are actually longer than Morgan's.  He was a better prospect than Morgan, especially considering Morgan tore his ACL.  Sometimes there isn't a rhyme or reason for why guys with a first round profile end up on day 2.  Cosmi is one of those cases.  So is JerZhan Newton.

20 minutes ago, xxprodigyxx said:

 

this and the fact that I fully expect Kirk to do well and make them contenders and by the time penix gets a legit shot to start he'll be 26 and maybe even 27. a bit different than the Jordan Love or Patrick Mahomes situations.

I understand the hedge on Kirk.  He's going to be 36 years old and making a comeback from a career killer injury.  What I don't really understand is why he was such a high demand FA in the first place.  What about his situation seemed to justify 40 and 50 million dollar cap hits?  Everyone was acting like he was coming off the 2022 season instead of 2023, and nobody questioned his deal at the time.

After the Penix pick, it's clear that Atlanta very much questions his ability to come back.  So why did they give him the deal in the first place?  They were always going to be in position to draft Michael Penix Jr.

It smacks of wasteful desperation stemming from an uncertain ownership situation.  It seems like they had a mandate from Arthur Blank to go all in for a SB because he's 81 and has had prostate cancer before.

My seventh rounders went undrafted.  Other than that, I was accurate with almost all of the other picks I made:

Laiatu Latu - 15 - My pick: 17
T'Vondre Sweat - 38 - My pick: 48
Jarrion Jones - 96 - My pick: 96
Mason McCormick - 119 - My pick: 114

Jacob Cowing - 135 - My pick: 116
Tykee Smith - 89 - My pick: 153
Jalen Green - Undrafted - My pick: 212
Kendall Milton - Undrafted - My pick: 236

My best pick was nailing Jarrion Jones at 96.  That is unusual to pull off that deep in a draft.

I had a feeling Jalen Green might go undrafted because of his late knee injury, but I would have still picked him in the seventh.  Dude had 16 sacks in 9 games.  He's still unsigned as far as I can tell, and we should bring him in for a look.

I also had a feeling Kendall Milton would go undrafted when he wasn't even on some of the brand name draft boards I looked at.  The Eagles scooped him up.  A lot of good running backs who would have been drafted under normal circumstances went UDFA this year.  The Covid season hurt their draft stock more than any other position.  Cody Schrader was like a fifth round caliber back, but was probably too old to be palatable for most teams.  I had a feeling he'd end up in San Francisco because he's an ideal fit for that system.

8 minutes ago, TurningTheCorner said:

Any chance we slide Cosmi back out to RT?

 

Our line would be Lucas, Allegretti, Biadasz, Stromberg, Cosmi.

 

Wylie and Coleman as your 6 and 7 with positional flex. Just a thought but that OL is likely far better than what we trotted out last year. Not great, but better. Coleman can hopefully grow into the LT position in time as well.

Allegretti and Stromberg would have to beat out Wylie in camp for that to happen.  Allegretti is not a starter, he's a back up IOL.  He's going to be 28 next season and has only played significant snaps one year in his career--2020.  He was brought in for depth, and we're in trouble if he comes out of camp as the clear starter at LG.  We don't currently have a starter at LG with history of playing a full season.  If you move Cosmi to RT, then Wylie is almost certainly going to have to start at RG, so I wouldn't see much of a reason to flip them.  Cosmi only makes sense to move if we had brought in a really high quality RG prospect, or signed a legit starter in FA.

Right now the left side of our line is a big question mark.  Our best options for starting at LG and LT are a mixture of prospects that we don't know are good.  Braeden Daniels and Brandon Coleman will both be in the mix in camp at LT and LG, but neither have played before.  Same for Stromberg, who only played a third of a game's worth of snaps, and they were at Center.  Paul will be in the mix at LG, but he was terrible last season and only played 400 snaps to boot.

Our line should be better with an extra year of chemistry on the right side, and nailing center was consequential.  That was likely the best long term FA move we made, and we can start building a much more sustainable line if Biadasz works out.  But the left side of the line is probably going to be terrible and a consistent point of failure next season.  We have to hope that Coleman can play LT and that someone from Daniels/Stromberg/Paul works out.

1 minute ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

 

It will be interesting to see if Jahan plays better this year with a different offensive scheme and QB. It's not like Terry had a great year either with the lack of other pass catching options. We could think differently about the current offensive players with these new guys running things.

Maybe.  But I think Terry is who he is at this point in his career: a bankable 1,000 yard receiver who brings superior intangibles to the table and can fit in almost in position and scheme.  That's a big piece to have, but I would be surprised if he busts out into 90 something grade territory next year, just due to having better coaching and QB play.  Ideally, guys like Terry are your second best weapon, not your only good one.

The book isn't written on Jahan yet... but it almost is.  If we're being realistic, it's not likely that he has the kind of breakout third year that Nico Collins had.  Third year breakouts are pretty rare for receivers.  And if Jahan doesn't significantly improve this year and give us a ton more production, then we probably need to move on.

Barring a surprise trade for someone like Deebo or Aiyuk, he's going to get the chance to break out though.  We don't really have anyone else to keep him on the bench or steal targets from him.

3 minutes ago, method man said:

I think Coleman was excellent value in the 3rd. Even if he becomes a guard, you are working with one with elite athleticism. Kind of like getting a longer more athletic Cosmi but in the 3rd round. If this were to happen and we retain Cosmi, you have the KC model of a fantastic interior with the question marks being on the edges 

Cosmi was a better prospect than Coleman, and a better athlete.  Coleman has a better vertical, but Cosmi's broad jump was better and his 40 and agility drill times are about as elite as it gets.  In 2021, Cosmi had the second best OT RAS since 1987.  It's pretty crazy that we were able to get him in the second round.  Jordan Morgan, Tyler Guyton, and Troy Fautanu were all much lesser prospects than Cosmi was, and they went in the first.  We got lucky with Cosmi.

13 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

one thing I see in this guy's highlights is how people just bounce off this dude and get floored.  I do not know how he does it.

He gets to the outside hip.  That's how you stop forward momentum when you hit someone from an angle.

3 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Not to open a can of worms but taking the best player on the board and not addressing need, is why Chase Young was our pick vs addressing a glaring team need spanning 20 years... quarterback.  Sure seems like taking BPA also led us to over drafting on the DL and neglecting glaring needs on the OL. Falcons taking their highest ranked best player QB ignoring needs, sure seemed to be the laughing stock of the draft.

QB is different, it doesn't get considered on a BPA rubric.  You only ever need one QB, unless your QB is an aging legend and you need a succession plan.  The reason the Falcons are getting roasted for the Penix Jr pick is because people thought they already had a plan out QB figured out, and then they cast that plan in total doubt by drafting a top ten QB.  Hedging so hard on their bet on Kirk begs the question of why make the bet on Kirk in the first place?

Picking all of those stud DLs was not the problem with our drafts 2017-2020.  Those guys were most of the only good players we got from those classes, and they actually make a strong case for drafting BPA.  We got Pro-bowlers from all of those picks.  Chase was the only first round pick Ron Rivera didn't reach on, and he was the only one of the four who had any kind of impact in his time here.  You want to know what the problem with those draft classes was?  Look at the Day 2 and early Day 3 picks.  That's what you get from reaching. 

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Sounds like what happened was that was their top target unti Newton dropped and then wanted both and got them.

They traded down for Sainristil though.  If they'd seriously been considering him at 36 and felt nervous about losing him, they would have picked him at 40.  I think we played it perfectly and couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the trade was announced on the TV.  Admittedly, I don't love that the Eagles got DeJean from it, but a trade back from 40 into the 50s after getting a high upside faller at 36 is the exact scenario we had been hoping for in the draft thread for months.  We just didn't know who the faller would be.

The surprising thing for me was the compensation.  I didn't expect to get a second pick in the 50s.  I thought the compensation would be an extra third rounder, and hadn't considered that we could use the Sam Howell third to get up into the 50s a second time.  I think Philly was the only team where that could have been an option.  So let's say the compensation had instead been something like 51 and 84 (from Pittsburgh), or 50 and 83 (from Philly without the repositioning), we would have missed out on Sinnott.  Those wouldn't have been terrible trades, we still could have drafted something like Sainristil + Christian Haynes/Blake Corum + Roman Wilson/Zak Zinter.  Just go all out on Michigan players.  But Sainristil + Sinnott feels pretty good.

Most places have us committing a pretty big reach on Sinnott, but I don't agree with that.  He was 58 on my board.  I think Sinnott was heavily underrated by draftniks this year, and I've actually done pretty well with my TE rankings and spotting gems over the years.  He was pretty firmly TE2 for me, and there was a 20 spot drop to TE3 in JaTavion Sanders, which honestly could have been way bigger since he didn't get picked until the beginning of the fourth round.  IMO Tip Reiman was the big reach.  So if you accept that Sinnott and Sainristil were taken at a proper range (which I do), our second round played out pretty close to ideal for us.

17 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep I agree. I always go back to the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. They showed one of those behind the scenes draft day videos when they took Jackson and it was awesome how EVERYONE was all in on him from the get go. It wasn't the owner wanting a guy the coach didn't want, or the coach wanting one guy but the GM/owner taking someone else etc.

 

Our organizational infrastructure is solid and sound and right for QB development for the first time since Beathard/Gibbs. Does that guarantee anything? Of course not. But for the first time in over 30 years, there's a chance. Ultimately that's all you can ask for.

 

I think next year is the year we really get aggressive and go out and get some legitimate weapons. Its usually year 2 or 3 when teams go out and get their young QB that weapon. Bills got Diggs for Allen before year 3. Ditto Hill for Tua. But the Texans got Diggs before year 2.

The Texans actually already had a big time receiver in-house in Nico Collins, we just had no idea he was that good until he took a mega leap last season.  Nico Collins was the third highest graded receiver in the NFL for PFF, with a 91.4, which is a sliver behind Brandon Aiyuk at 91.5.  He also had 11 AV, which is good for a middling offense.  I think we can safely say he was a top 10-15 WR last year, and being only 24, could easily keep ascending.  Diggs might not be the #1 receiver for them at this point in his career.

Also then Tank Dell was the second best rookie receiver until he got hurt in week 13.  Houston has a real panoply of weapons for Stroud.  We've really only got Terry and Robinson and a bunch of aging former stars who we brought in to show us how to play, and none of these guys are going to blow up and get 90 something grades on PFF.  So unless Jahan makes a massive leap like Nico Collins did, we need better weapons.  The sooner the better too.  We want Jayden to hit the ground running, because that helps secure everyone's job.  If he struggles and has a Bryce Young-type season, that puts everyone on the hot seat in year two.

47 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Holy crap that 2nd throw in the Orlovsky video. I can see Daniels to McLaurin absolutely abusing teams with that.

That was his best throw of the year.  It stood out.

I think the biggest reason why this time has a chance to be different is that the whole organization is united on Jayden.  Everyone is on board and they've cleared the deck so there won't be any hedging.  Everyone is married to the success of Jayden.

But we're definitely going to have to give him more support than we can right now.  Our weapons aren't good enough yet, and our line is definitely not good enough.  We have to change gears and be more aggressive in our team building approach now.  This is the time where we have to be the most aggressive at adding offensive talent than at any other point in Jayden's career here.  We need to hunt down a star receiver or running back that can carry the offense, and pay what it takes to get them.

The Kansas QB could be this year's Michael Penix Jr.  Their offense was surprisingly electric.  Their coach must be pretty good.

I think Will Howard playing in a loaded offense coached by Ryan Day is a recipe for going in the first round.  You saw glimmers of that kind of upside the past couple years.  He would be my bet to be this year's Jayden Daniels.

Looks like there are going to be some first round RBs and LBers this year. Stutsman was very impressive last year, and Perkins and Carter have flashed that kind of upside in the past.  On the whole, the 2025 class is a reverse from 2024 in that the best prospects are defensive players.  Malachi Starks is the best safety prospect in years, better than Kyle Hamilton was, and Hamilton should have been a top five pick.  He's a once in a blue moon player that seemed to get overshadowed by the Caleb Downs hype last season, but he's the real beast.

Benjamin Morrison would have easily been CB1 in this year's class.  Probably the first defender off the board too.  Hopefully we're not picking high enough to get either Morrison or Starks, but they would certainly turbocharge our secondary.

On 4/27/2024 at 4:36 PM, danielcommanders said:

This is the one pick I'm not a fan of.  This is a a Rivera type pick.  At least this is our only undersized pick in the draft.  Would have loved taken a swing on a tackle or edge in the second.  ****.  What's done is done.  

I'm nervous about his size too, but it'll come down to scheme whether or not that becomes a big issue.  If we leave him in man coverage on big receivers like Del Rio would, then yeah it could be a problem.  But I expect this staff to be smarter about designing coverages, and to use him in off coverages and zones.

Size didn't limit him in run support.  He is a great tackler and an extremely physical player.  He's in the mold of Tyrann Mathieu and Asante Samuel Jr, and these kinds of DBs can be gems.  He also has leadership potential to be the kind of air traffic controller in the middle that is one of our biggest needs.

Our secondary has a ton of good young players that are waiting to break out.  Sainristil might be the best one of all of them.  It would not shock me if he is a really good player as a rookie, and quickly takes over the leadership of the defense.  I get a very strong Terry McLaurin vibe from him.

1 hour ago, Conn said:

Newton was this draft’s second-best three-technique interior pass rusher behind Byron Murphy.

I think Newton is definitely a better rusher than Murphy.  But I think Murphy is a better run defender at the PoA.  Murphy has legit 1 technique potential and played there many snaps and drew the doubles for Texas even though they had Sweat.  Newton is not a great 1 technique option, he'll get pushed back if we try and have him play there on run downs.  But he is a very good pursuit player in the run game, and he's a much more skilled and varied pass rusher.

I only found one game of cut ups for Jordan Magee, and I didn't think his reps were that good.  I definitely didn't see "most instinctive LBer in the class" or anything even remotely close to that.  I saw a lot of false steps and late keys in coverage, and I didn't see much of an ability to sift through and avoid trash, or get off/around blocks quick.  I want to give him the benefit of the doubt because of how athletic he is, and how good SF was at picking LBers, but I'm not sure this guy is good.