Going Commando

16 minutes ago, ZRagone said:

I wouldn't really want Deebo. The benefits Aiyuk brings (the connection with JD, being two years younger, less wear and tear) are worth the money and the move for us. I don't think that applies with Deebo

Deebo would be cheaper to trade for though.  And looks like his salary the next two years isn't too bad, at 21 million and 17 million respectively.  The fact that Daniels played with Aiyuk before is nice, but it's not essential.  If SF doesn't put Aiyuk up for trade, then we don't really have a lot of choice.

There aren't that many All Pro receivers hitting the market, and getting one would be tremendously helpful to our young QB.  I wouldn't let the perfect be the enemy of the good, let's bring in a big fish and turbo-charge the offense.

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I want to reiterate: The online draft community is sleeping on Kam Kinchens and they shouldn't be.

 

[]_[]

Yeah he's good.  I've got him 92 on my board, but I can see a case for him going earlier.  I think he goes in the third round.

My favorite safety is Vaki.  That dude is clean.  Flies around the field, but goes in for tackles under control.  He's super young, and plays both sides of the ball.  He's kind of the poor man's version of DeJean.

25 minutes ago, Kalu44 said:

 

If he is that special, I hope they are trying to trade up for him.

Yeah it could make sense to do that.  But might not have to if the Bills draft a WR.  Next pick is probably either Suamataia or McConkey, and then it's just one slot to go before our pick.

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

Is Dejean or Kool-Aid a better fit for us?

DeJean is a better player period.  Kool-Aid is pretty good, but DeJean is one of the special players of the class.

Man, DeJean would be such an astonishingly good value pick at 36, that if he is there, I would take him over any available option.  Even over Kingsley and Beebe.  And no way I'd trade out of the pick.  I am not going to get my hopes up for him though.  Every year we get excited about juicy value pick fallers in the second and third round, and every year they either get picked right before our slot or we end up passing them over for the Phidarian Mathis, Ryan Anderson, or Jarvis Jenkins monster reach.  Only time we have ever gotten it right was Cosmi.

To me, trading for Aiyuk is a no-brainer, depending on the asking price.  But I'd be surprised about getting that kind of deal done during the draft, given how late it came onto the radar.  You've got to sort out compensation and an extension before you can pull the trigger, and that'll take a while.

Frankly, I don't think SF will trade him.  I think they'll end up trading Deebo instead, and that's a deal that interests me too.  He would need to be a lot cheaper than Aiyuk though.

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

I want Philly to want to move up to 36 for Kool Aid and give us 50&53 and we take JPJ, Beebe and Paul.

They already got Quinyon though.  Would they still trade so much to get another corner?

If Kingsley is off the board, then I definitely explore those trade down scenarios though.  Kool-Aid is good, but I'd rather have two mid seconds for freaking sure.

I'm in the camp of calling Buffalo to try and get to 33 for Kingsley Suamataia.  I do not want the Patriots to grab him.  36 and mid-round change isn't too big a price to pay for the last first round caliber OT on the board.

We can recoup the value by moving down from 40.  If you get to ~55, that's Cooper Beebe or Blake Corum range.

34 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I think it will be Kool-Aid as well. I’d be happy with that pick. 
 

I would be OK with Beebe with our later 2nd. People will scream it’s a reach for need but will forget all about that when he is plug and play at or around Pro Bowl level for the next decade.

It wouldn't be a reach for me.  I posted my board yesterday, and this group are still available:

On 4/25/2024 at 11:36 AM, Going Commando said:

17 - Cooper DeJean
18 - Blake Corum
19 - Cooper Beebe
20 - Kingsley Suamataia

After them, I've got:

25 - Johnny Newton

31 - Ladd McConkey
32 - Kool-Aid McKinstry

All of them constitute value picks for me, but Dejean and Beebe are the biggest ones.  I accept that Corum will never be the pick, I just think the league is sleeping on him.

Beebe is the best IOL in the class, and I think he's a legitimately dominant player that is getting overlooked because he's a little short and wide-bodied and has no neck.  Anyone who can snatch T'Vondre Sweat down has ridiculous functional strength, and he virtually never misses move blocks.  It's incredible.  He's just uniquely good at football, and underrating him for not being body beautiful is a classic mistake IMO.  So I think we'd be getting a first round player in Beebe.

DeJean is a special player too, but I really think he's going to Buffalo because he's just so conspicuously valuable at this point, and teams have had a night to sleep on him.  So that leaves me hoping New England has Johnny Newton over Kingsley Suamataia on their board.  If he goes there, then I think we can get Kingsley at 36 and Beebe at 40 and completely transform the long term quality of the line.  It'd be like getting two first round pick OLs in the same year, pushed down by the unusual depth of the class.

1 hour ago, Conn said:

May have dodged some bullets, if this metric actually means anything

To me, the analytics guys are hubristic in thinking they can use out of context metrics to fully explain and understand players and the game, and avoid doing all of the work of watching film.

Those guys aren't all the same.  You don't know why some of them took forever to break out, but it could have absolutely no bearing on their NFL careers.  Or it could be that they are lazy and give no effort on plays where they aren't the initial read, and it will have a bearing. That's what you have to suss out via actual scouting.

DeJean is probably going to be pick #33 and Suamataia is probably going to be #34.  If the Cardinals go pure BPA at 35, the. It'll be Johnny Newton.

Corum and Beebe would be my BPAs, but no one has them as high as me.  I think Kool-Aid will be the clear consensus BPA candidate at 36.  Either him or Jackson Powers Johnson.  My favorite play is to take Kool-Aid or trade back.

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think we're in the part of our team building phase where we want to take on a contract like Aiyuk's. We're better off drafting someone younger and cheaper. Plenty of good WR options at 36 and/or 40.

This is exactly the part of the roster building phase that you overpay for a star WR.  Your cheapest QB cap hit + your most fragile point in their career, where they need the help of stud receivers.  Contract #2 is when you let your expensive wide outs walk and you draft cheap ones to continuously cost control the position group.

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

Also... Watching Belichick's thoughts on Daniels reinforced some of my concerns with Daniels. 

 

Misses open passes, doesn't throw well inside the numbers, takes big hits.

 

Which I am hopeful can be fixed with coaching as long as he does the thing that unlocks everything else: Stay healthy and protect himself. If he's available to practice, he's going to get much better.

The biggest question for me is about speeding up his decision making and getting the ball out faster.  Everyone misses throws.  Mahomes dirts a bunch of ugly passes every game.  What matters is making big plays and keeping you team alive even when you're not sharp that day.  But being late on throws is a chronic issue for Jayden that can lead to a dysfunctional passing game, and I don't think evaluators really acknowledged how long he stood in clean pockets waiting to throw last year, and how playing like that doesn't translate to the NFL.  He is going to have to play with so much more urgency and decisiveness in the NFL.  Especially behind a lower tier pass pro line.  My fear is that it's deeply ingrained habit for him, because he was even late on throws at his Pro Day throwing session.

He's also got to get a lot better at playmaking under pressure.  He has to be able to deal with free rushers because we don't have the weapons to keep seven in coverage, and our OLs lose.  We aren't going to be able to build a wall in front of him next year, here are going to be a lot of bad pockets, and he can't become a 1-2 run QB.

He's going to need a lot more than that.  He also needs a great OL to make plays from the pocket.  Tyler Biadasz and a back up guard aren't going to get it done.

I don't understand how we can have gone through another whole regime and Terry McLaurin is still our only serious weapon on offense.  And our line got way worse.  We should have lucked into more than just Sam Cosmi in five years of trying to build the offense.

1 minute ago, DogofWar1 said:

The problem with Aiyuk is the contract you're gonna be paying him.  Well that and the pick you give up.  Rumors were 49ers wanted a 1st which is just wayyyy too much.

Aiyuk is one of the best receivers in the NFL and he broke Jayden in at AZ St.  We have **** tons of money and no elite players to spend it on.  I think a trade for Aiyuk makes sense, but no way I'd give up next year's first.

I think the Patriots are going to draft Kingsley.  They had him in for visits.

18 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

The fact that we heard so much about Daniels and JJ makes me a little suspicious we want Maye. Thou doth protest too much?

I'm suspicious that we heard so much about them because the Giants desperately want Drake Maye and have fed a mountain of bull**** groupthink to a draft media that is incompetent and unable to see through it.

16 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

You'll see more kids stay in school because NIL money is only gonna skyrocket.

I think we're in the Wild West phase of NIL spending, and that it will normalize and deals for QBs won't grow exponentially.  First off, NIL earnings will never really be able to compete with NFL contracts because CFB just doesn't generate more money than the NFL.  The NFL is the most profitable entertainment business in the world, and generates and splits revenue between 32 strong brands.  I think I remember reading that CFB generated just under 6 billion in revenue two years ago, compared to the 18 billion for the NFL.  And CFB's revenues aren't going to explode if the sport travels further down the path of uncompetitiveness.  Six name brand programs can't out-earn the NFL.

I think boosters are also going to stop being so liberal with NIL money once they see how little return they're getting for their investment.  If I'm a Texas booster, I'm not going to keep paying Arch Manning 5 million a year to sit the bench, and no NC to show for all of the money spent.

Lastly, I think CFB is going to eventually come up with a roster spending cap and revenue sharing system that will have the ultimate effect of limiting QB NIL deals.  Nobody wants to see the sport become a contest between UT, A&M, Ohio State, and Michigan outspending each other to determine championships.

Reworked a few position rankings to better match up with my gut takes.  WR and S specifically.  Then I came up with this tier ranking for the QBs:

Tier 1:

1 - Williams

2 - Maye

Tier 2:

3 - Daniels

Tier 3:

4 - Penix Jr

5 - McCarthy

Tier 4:

6 - Nix

Tier 5:

7 - Rattler

Tier 6:

8 - Pratt

9 - Milton

Those tiers are based on how speculative I think the QB prospect is, and I made breaks in my Big Board where cliffs in prospect quality happen, and the speculative QB tiers become appropriate to draft.  This is my final, no-hindsight top 100 Big Board:

1 - Caleb Williams
2 - Drake Maye
3 - Brock Bowers
4 - Malik Nabers
5 - Marvin Harrison Jr
6 - Jared Verse
7 - Rome Odunze
8 - Taliese Fuaga

---  (Tier 2) ---
9 - Jayden Daniels
10 - Dallas Turner
11 - Laiatu Latu
12 - Quinyon Mitchell
13 - Nate Wiggins
14 - Brian Thomas Jr
15 - Olu Fashanu
16 - JC Latham
17 - Cooper DeJean
18 - Blake Corum
19 - Cooper Beebe
20 - Kingsley Suamataia
21 - Byron Murphy
22 - Joe Alt
23 - Darius Robinson
24 - Amarius Mims
25 - Johnny Newton
26 - Terrion Arnold

--- (Tier 3) ---
27 - Michael Penix Jr
28 - JJ McCarthy
29 - Xavier Legette
30 - Graham Barton
31 - Ladd McConkey
32 - Kool-Aid McKinstry
33 - Troy Fautanu
34 - Jackson Powers-Johnson
35 - Chop Robinson
36 - Jordan Morgan
36 - Payton Wilson
37 - Tyler Nubin
38 - T'Vondre Sweat
39 - Kamari Lassiter
40 - Edgerrin Cooper
41 - Kris Jenkins
42 - Troy Franklin
43 - Bralen Trice
44 - Sedrick Van Pran
45 - Austin Booker
46 - Jonathan Brooks
47 - TJ Tampa
48 - Braden Fiske
49 - Kiran Amegadjie
50 - Jonah Elliss
51 - Zak Zinter
52 - Christian Haynes
53 - Keon COleman
54 - Audric Estime
55 - Trey Benson

--- (Tier 4) ---
56 - Bo Nix
57 - Ricky Pearsall
58 - Ben Sinnott
59 - Mike Sainristil
60 - Cole Bishop
61 - Max Melton
62 - Junior Colson
63 - Patrick Paul
64 - Jeremiah Trotter Jr
65 - Blake Fisher
66 - Mason McCormick
67 - Jamari Thrash
68 - Roman Wilson
69 - Cedric Gray
70 - Malachi Corley
71 - Chris Braswell
72 - Renardo Green
73 - JaTavion Sanders
74 - Tyler Guyton
75 - Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
76 - Caedan Wallace
77 - Roger Rosengarten
78 - JaLynn Polk
79 - Jarrian Jones
80 - Sione Vaki
81 - Ennis Rakestraw Jr
82 - Tykee Smith
83 - Marshawn Kneeland
84 - Michael Hall Jr
85 - Beaux Limmer
86 - Cade Stover
87 - Zach Frazier
88 - Jacob Cowing
89 - Malik Washington
90 - Isaiah Adams
91 - Johnny Wilson
92 - Kam Kinchens
93 - Tez Walker
94 - Khyree Jackson
95 - Elijah Jones
96 - Brandon Dorlus
97 - Xavier Worthy
98 - Jalen McMillan
99 - Javon Bullard
100 - Kendall Milton

1 hour ago, mudhog said:

Just curious, if Suamataia, McConkley and Morgan are there at pick 36, Who do YOU take?

I'll chime in too and say Suamataia for me.  He's the highest one on my board of the three.

44 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Jones was almost on the list for me, he's one I was early on.  A dude that is oddly slept on, he has the highest RAS score about the corners I tracked, feisty consistent slot CB.

 

I almost put Thrash on it but you were earlier on him than me so I figured I'd leave that one to you.   Ditto Beebe.

 

Tykee Smith also good slot-S type I liked early on.

 

Bowers I've loved but I felt too obvious for me to include, Drake Maye ditto.

 

Loved Fauga early but wanted to focus on O lineman this team might take.  I had him #2 on my OT's rankings. 

 

I like Caedan Wallace at RT, almost made my list.

That was more of a list where i noticed I was a lot higher on X player than the mock draft consensus, more so than guys I would definitely bang the table for.  Most of them are the ones I either drafted in the Mock Draft, or would have if they'd been there.  That's the only dibs I call on players.  If I were to simplify my list to just a few of my absolute favorite players in the class, the ones I literally hope the Commanders draft, no question that this would be it for me:

- Drake Maye

- Blake Corum

- Jared Verse (I'd trade both seconds if he fell into range)

- Cooper Beebe

- Jamari Thrash

- Kingsley Suamataia

- Sione Vaki

Taking Tykee Smith over Vaki in the mock draft is one of my early regrets.  I didn't realize how good he was until after the picks were in.  Georgia players are much higher on my radar because I live in Georgia and football season is nothing but UGA here.

My bang the table list:

QB - Drake Maye

RB - Blake Corum, Audric Estime, Kendall Milton, Tyrone Tracy

WR - Jamari Thrash, Jacob Cowing

TE - Brock Bowers

OT - Taliese Fuaga, Kingsley Suamataia, Caedan Wallace, Ethan Driskell

IOL - Cooper Beebe, Sedrick Van Pran, Zak Zinter, Mason McCormick

Edge - Jared Verse, Bralen Trice, Laiatu Latu

IDL - T'Vondre Sweat, Brandon Dorlus

LB - none

CB - Jarrian Jones, Chau Smith-Wade

S - Sione Vaki, Tykee Smith

These are players that I am meaningfully higher on than the consensus.  The variance gets finer and more meaningful earlier in the draft.  For instance everyone likes Maye, Bowers, Verse, Fuaga, and Latu in the first round, but very few are putting them as high as they deserve IMO.  I've got Maye #2 in the class, Bowers #3, Verse #6, Fuaga #8, and Latu #10.

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I took Myles in the board's mock draft, freakish measurables,  I considered putting him higher in my own rankings, in retrospect I probably should have

I placed him high because he showed out at the SB.  It's a pure upside projection because his film is garbage, even as a sixth year senior. The edge class gets really speculative after that Elliss/Trice/Booker tier in the third round, and even Booker is a pretty speculative prospect.  The SB weighed pretty heavily for me this year. It's the reason I placed Kneeland so high on my board, because I thought his film sucked too, which was surprising and disappointing because his PFF score was so good.

It's also the reason I left Adisa Isaac off.  His film was meh, but he spent SB week getting destroyed on every rep.  Couldn't match up with anybody, so that plus his Achilles injury puts him in UDFA territory for me.

47 minutes ago, mudhog said:

I don't see Gabriel Murphy on your EDGE list. What's the deal with him? Is he injured or have bad medicals or something? He's all over the board on mock drafts from 3rd round to 7th. But PFF power rankings have him solidly ranked around pick 110.

I left the Murphy brothers off my list because I didn't watch them.  I only watched Latu and they didn't go the to SB, so I never developed a take on them.  There were a couple of guys who would probably have made the list if I'd had time to watch them.  Gabe Hall, Ainias Smith, Edefuan Ulofoshio, etc.  I leave off players who I don't form takes on, because I'd rather not shoot in the dark.  I usually only focus on top 100 players because I find it difficult to go deeper than that, but this year I went 20 deep on the positions I spent the most time on.

3 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I think there will be a run on tackles second half of the first - I wasn’t thinking Paul would be among that group personally. Could well be wrong though!

Let someone reach for him.  I've been going back through the the tackles, rewatched the SB practices, and he just isn't as good as Fuaga, Morgan, and Suamataia.  Fuaga absolutely shut it down, he's a top ten pick and the OT1.  Even Guyton had better reps, although he still had some turd reps that were in character.  That guy either dominates his rep or gets utterly destroyed in the first two steps.  Paul looked like a JAG and spent a bunch of the week holding.  He's traitsy and his in game film is better than his practice week, but he's absolutely not a first round caliber player.  He's in that late second, early third round mix with Blake Fisher and Roger Rosengarten and Caedan Wallace.  I think he'll be there at 40 but I don't think he'll be anywhere close to BPA.  Not even sure he would be at 67.