Going Commando

1 hour ago, Commander20180 said:

This is just plain nuts.

What is the good reason for keeping Peters and Quinn around if they draft a QB and he busts?

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But I don't take Schefter saying it will be Daniels on 5 different shows for a week straight because he has no idea but he's the type that rocks by taking wild guesses and hopes to get lucky.

I don't think he's guessing wildly.  But I also don't think he really knows, and he has given definitive takes that were wrong before.  He said SF was going to pick Mac Jones at #3 in 2021.

2 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

Who would take the GM job then? It starts looking like Tepper in Carolina fast. You have to give the decisions you make some time. Peters will take a massive reputational hit if he misses and the one he passed on excels, but I doubt he gets fired.

There is no room for equivocation on this.  This FO and coaching staff need to understand that they are 100% married to this QB prospect.  If they want to keep their jobs, then they need to find a way to make it work.

This is thread is what I'm talking about doing again this year:

It's a trip to go back and look at these things.  Big Boards are hard, and my big board from that season already looks like a mess.  But my position rankings look much better.  It speaks to how much harder it is to weigh draft stock than it is to identify talent and make apples to apples comparisons between it.  If we don't end up making a thread, I'd still invite everyone in here to make a big board and/or a position ranking chart and at least post it in here.

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Maybe.   I got a lot of work to do to hit that because some spots I haven't watched anyone like DT.  

 

I was thinking of ranking players in the spots I have watched.  I plan to watch a lot this weekend to catch up.  i spend too much time on the QB thread which is derailing me some, plus busier at work than typical at this time of the year. 

Yeah it is a lot of work.  Doing a top 100 is less than half of an actual draft board and it still feels like a stretch.  If I can't get to 100, I should definitely be able to do a top 50 or 75.

Is anyone going to make a big board this year?  I'm thinking about making a top 100 and creating another thread to keep big board records.

27 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I think Peters and Quinn will get 5 years together and at least 2 bites at the qb apple.

Absolutely not.  If Peters and Quinn mess this up, they need to go.  They've been given the second overall pick in a QB class with at least two blue chippers, opportunites don't get better than this.

If it fails, we need to move on with a new regime and let them pick the next QB prospect.

54 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

Or he thinks screw drafting a rookie all together. We could trade down to 4 with Arizona get Kyler, a 1 and 2 next year and maybe a 2 or 3 this year and draft MHJ. That gets you in a far more win now mode with experience than drafting Daniels does.

That would probably get Kingsbury to quit on the spot.

1 minute ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Yeah but Purdy walked into literally one of the best possible situations a rookie QB could be thrown into. We aren't close to the 9ers in terms of roster makeup, remains to be seen with coaching but Shanny is no slouch there either. Even if McCarthy gives AP Purdy vibes he has to know that Purdy definitely wouldn't have had the same level of success here that he's had in SF

Sure.  But there is some special sauce in Purdy, and he offers a model of how a QB can be successful translating to the NFL (and early) that Adam Peters has had direct experience with.  If he gets deja vu when he talks to McCarthy, then that's a pretty compelling reason to draft him.

I don't think that's how we're leaning, but I wouldn't rule it out.  It's hard not to see similarities between the two.

D Robinson looks like a comic book character.  I'm not sure I've seen a DL carry 300 pounds so easily, with so much tapering at the waist.  It's like there are 150 pounds of muscle in his shoulders.  He has the build of Colossus from X-Men in his non metal form.  When you consider the freakish stature along with how dominant he was at the SB, it seems really clear to me that he should be a first round pick.  It's something the league shouldn't miss, and they usually don't.

But if they do, then he is probably at the top of my wish list for 36, and would definitely keep me from trading down at that spot.

After him, I guess my preference is for Morgan, Chop, or Ladd.  I can be sold on some DBs too.  I don't think Kool-Aid will be there.  He's consistently been a first round pick over the last year, and he had a good season.  Corners with man/zone versatility and good size usually rise on draft day rather than fall.

All it will take for McCarthy to be the pick is for Adam Peters to say "this guy is Brock Purdy" after he visits.

Just going off of body language from the Prodays, I think it's a safe bet he prefers Daniels or Maye.

Parsons is a better version of LaVar.  Him flaming out in Dallas after a short, brilliant career was so predictable that it almost feels like a scriptwriting mistake to actually have it happen.

Here is how the next part of the story goes: he lost his mentor, who was willing to design his entire defense around getting him favorable match ups and playmaking looks, and he takes a big step back with Mike Zimmer, who tries to make him play in a structured OLB role.  He hates it, becomes a malcontent, falls afoul of Jerry, then walks in free agency.

26 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

How many of these do you think he takes in the NFL before he can’t get up from one?

He got body slammed by a DB in the FSU game in '22 also, got ragdolled by Dallas Turner on a run earlier in that Alabama game, and got planted by Rakestraw in the Missouri game this year too.  I've watched these plays so much that I've got them memorized.  Jayden gets hit hard.  But I've also seen him slide on scrambles in the middle of the field when the defense is in zone.

He's an aggressive runner and his eyes get big when he sees man coverage and he just makes bad decisions as a ball carrier in the open field.  And he got punished for it on occasion in college, but not enough for the lessons to stick.  However, there will come a time when he's in the NFL, running up the field right inside the numbers, and the opportunity to make a man miss will present itself.  He will dead leg this guy and cut back on a hesitation move that will obliterate that player's ankles.  And then Derwin James pursuing the play from field-side will kill him.

2 hours ago, mudhog said:

I've started running my mocks with this idea in mind. For instance, if two of Mims, Guyton or Morgan were available to me at 36 and 40, I would pick two OTs. But often times there was guys like JPJ, D. Robinson, Kool-Aid, G. Barton, J. Newton and Chop available at 36. So, I started to take the highest rated player regardless if he was a OT or not. Obviously I am going to pick another QB if we've already taken ours at #2. 
 

I figure GMAP will already be thinking this way because it's probably basic GM-101, although it's a new concept to me. But I can see the logic in it. That being said, do all GM's see it this way? Just the good GMs? And what is the highest number of blue-chip players that you can recall on any given team? I suppose that your theory of 4-5 blue-chip players with another 9-11 very good players for support can be played-out by going back to SB winning teams of the past. Maybe not just the SB winning teams, but NFC/AFC champion teams would also support this theory?

I think 4-5 truly elite players on a team might actually be too high of a bar.  I'm trying to think of a bunch of different examples of teams that can meet that bar, but if you set "truly elite" at players of the caliber of Chris Jones, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill, the list is going to be thin.  Does Trent McDuffie make that cut?  Do Creed Humphrey or Joe Thuney?  The answer feels like no for all of them, but they also feel like something more than a Daron Payne or Terry McLauren caliber "occasional Probowler who is otherwise a really good role player."

Maybe we need another tier of player between the warrior elite guys who lead contenders, and the really good starters who fill them out and make them work.  And maybe that extra tier helps explain how teams that don't really have 4-5 guys in that elite tier of player still win Superbowls, like the Rams in SB 56.  And then you have to figure out how to translate the value of players in this tier into draft value/contract dollars.

Maybe we need to count QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson as two to make the 4-5 bar work?  Because I'm not really sure that Buffalo had anyone other than Josh Allen who would qualify for this tier last season, but they were still somehow a contender.  I'm also uncomfortable putting a player like Justin Madubuike in that tier, but if not him, then Lamar and Roquan were the only players on Baltimore's roster who meet the standard of elite.

Or maybe the fact that Buffalo and Baltimore couldn't meet the standard of at least 3 elite players on their roster helps explain why they couldn't beat KC.

5 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Is that true? Jebus.

 

 

Yep. 

I mean come on, how many RGIII parallels can there possibly be?

32 minutes ago, illone said:

This is already better than Zorn's swinging gate OR Jayden Daniels blue tent. 

Speaking of which, did anyone else notice that Jayden's mom was in the blue tent with him when he got hurt in the Alabama game?  That's not normal right?  This dude's relationship with his mom is weird.

11 minutes ago, mudhog said:

No, I am talking about taking Mims at 36 and Guyton at 40. I'd rather have both of these guys than only one Fashanu. But, they both probably wont fall that far in reality, so just take the one that's left and go after Fisher, or Kiran, or Rosengarten or Paul in the 3rd. I'm also warming to GoingCommando's theory that we don't have to have studs at LT and RT. 

We'll be fine if we just get studs somewhere in the offense.  Get a stud left guard and that would be HUGE for the offense.  If we trade back into the first, go big game hunting.  Go get someone like Brian Thomas.  If we draft Thomas and Cooper Beebe, our offense will be strong even with Andrew Wylie and some kind of lousy platoon of swing tackles at LT.

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Na, Cosmi was a trash T. He got dominated. At G he's gonna end up being a Pro Bowler. He should have been a G from the get go but once again, Rivera didn't know what he was doing.

What are you talking about?  He had a 75 grade from PFF at RT as a rookie. He had a 72 grade juggling between RT and RG in '22, and played most of his snaps injured on top of that.  He's always been good and was one of the only legit good draft picks Ron made.  He would be fine at tackle too.  Last season was as much about him gaining veterancy, making it through the whole year healthy, and having some stability beside and behind him as anything.  He's one of the best athletes at OL in the league, he could definitely play RT.

3 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Ultimately, in the NFL, one must acknowledge the risk of injury and proceed accordingly; there are no guarantees with any player. IMHO

Injuries are a certainty for every player.  Justin Herbert is one of the biggest, toughest, and most rugged QBs in the league.  He takes a lot of damage from his running style--upright, and through the middle of the field.  Jayden runs the same way.  He also stands in the pocket forever before throwing.  It's a matter of when and how bad, not if with him.

I don't know if we'll draft him, but it certainly feels like that's what we're going to do.  When we do it, we need to build an absolutely airtight pocket for the dude in order for him to have any chance to work out here.

I don't want us to draft JJ McCarthy, but I also don't want to crap on him for the exact same reason I don't want to crap on Brock Purdy.  Put all of these QBs side by side and either he or Nix are the least physically impressive of the bunch by far.  Just doesn't have anywhere near the stature and power that Maye or Penix do.  A lot of the best QBs in the NFL right now were pretty wild bets on traits.  And it's going to look even more like traits are what matter the most if Anthony Richardson comes back healthy and kills it and Bryce Young ends up a bust.

But there is the Brock Purdy magic in JJ.  He's sharp and handling the QB job seems like it comes easy to him.  He walks the walk of being Captain QB.  Don't bet against guys that have that rock solid, unshakable confidence even when it feels unmerited.

It would be so typical if we spend all of this time arguing over Jayden and Maye and in the end, they both bust and ****ing JJ McCarthy ends up being the best QB from the class.

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

But Penei had that elite tape. I'm not saying you're wrong about Rosengarten in particular, but his measurements and testing look very comparable to Sam Cosmi, to me, and we all know how that turned out. Cosmi and Rosengarten, and Penei all have roughly 33 inch arms, or just over. 

I think Cosmi could have stayed at RT.  Maybe wouldn't have been as good, but more than anything, he just needed a consistent role.  That ended up being guard based on surrounding personnel, but if we'd kept Scherff, I bet he would have been a fine RT instead.

But Cosmi's Texas film also looked like guard film because of how uneven and unschooled his pass pro sets were.  Rosengarten's feet in pass pro are probably his most notable strength.  His sets look good and fluid.  He's got change of direction speed--mirror laterally, as well as going backwards to forwards--saw him bucket step and then jump set an edge who kind of set up in contain in the Oregon game.  You would want to use his strength for mirroring outside speed at tackle.

Where I trust him less is holding blocks against good power rushers who are skilled hand fighters.  Winzit's right that power is his flaw--he's got quick hands but his grip isn't great, and I think he'd struggle anchoring NFL IDL power.  Might as well play him where he's the most natural fit and get the benefit of someone athletic enough to play on islands.

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

The plate includes Daniels as well, right? 

If we were picking three?  Why not?  But not at two.  Maye is the best choice by far.

26 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Obviously our coaches/FO are soooo much smarter than us though. Just like Ron Rivera was smarter than us. And Bruce Allen. And so on....

This is why I can never turn off my brain, forget my opinions, and just accept these sorts of appeals to authority.  The NFL has always been full of hacks that got where they were based on friendships and nepotism.

It's not like the medical field, or any field where the experts within it are genuine, super smart, highly professional, constantly renewing and cultivating their knowledge, and can't perform even the most basic functions of their job without authentic expertise.  It's an entertainment business centered around a ****ing kid's game.  It's also not like finding a QB is some impossible riddle to solve either, even the God Damn Jags, Bengals, Bills, and Chargers all managed to do it.  If we can't manage to do it with everything served up on a plate for us, then we are hopeless.

19 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

No. 34 for No. 53 and 59 --- Trade down team wins 197-175

This trade is a huge win.  Who was the player that was taken at 34?

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I certainly don't know as much about football as NFL scouts or coaches but good lord. Some of those takes on Daniels and Maye just sound so dumb to me. Like they watch Maye and do nothing but focus on bad things he does and watch Daniels and do nothing but focus on the good things he does and everything else goes out the window.

What gets me is they're just wrong about Daniels's processing.  They push that bull**** narrative about some magic VR machine teaching him how to read a defense and that's why he could finally make plays in his fifth year as a starter, and nevermind the fact that he's playing for a great coach now and had clean pockets to throw to a bunch of elite receivers where the reads were easy and he had all day to make them.

One of the scouts even recognizes the parallel to Fields, but doesn't seem to recognize that Fields was a bust, and that building an NFL offense around his running ability didn't work.

And then the big justification for Daniels over Maye is because he'll be ready to play year one?  The kid who took five years of college ball for the lightbulb to come on is a better bet to play well in year one than the kid who was one of the best players in the country his first year as a starter?

It's so dumb that it literally makes me angry that these morons have the jobs that they do.