Going Commando

14 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

 

I think we might go after DJ Humphries (wouldn’t help this year but for next year) or trade for Bolles.

 

I also think if we let the draft come to us, we may be able to grab one of the top OGs (if we missed the run on tackles). That would at least shore up the interior oline and we would have good depth there also. Plan on OTs being average and just deal with it. Keep going BPA- can’t fix it all.

 

Agreed.  If you trade up, you are at minimum losing a pick in the exchange.  That is a lot of draft value to sacrifice.  To me, you have to recoup some of that lost value on the trade up itself in order to come anywhere near the value you lost from not just staying put and drafting BPA.  That's why I don't want to trade up for anyone who isn't sitting around +10 in value. 

The only player who I think might approach that +10 value at ~14 or 15 (what our 36 and 40 would get us) is Brock Bowers.  Fashanu and Fuaga don't constitute that kind of value, they'd be more like +2 or +3.

In contrast, say teams go reaching for OLs in the first and some of the defenders start dropping.  What if Kool-Aid and Darius Robinson are there at 36 and 40?  That's like +15 value on each pick, and we'd already be at +30 value 40 picks into the draft.  That is a home run outcome, and we'd be much better off in that scenario than we would be after trading our seconds to get Fuaga or Fashanu.

The fifth round has already begun.  We are flying.  It'd be really cool to finish our draft by the end of the weekend.

24 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

Listened to a podcast and they thought since there aren’t many elite defensive players, and that the WR class is both great in quality and depth, all of the OTs we have been discussing go in the first.

 

Just thought it was interesting that others agree with the scenario some have speculated will occur and it would make sense to explore a trade up for an OT.

There are probably ~12 first round worthy defensive players.  Verse, Latu, Turner, Robinson, Murphy, Newton, Wiggins, Arnold, McKinstry, Mitchell, DeJean and potentially Wilson.  On top of that, there are ten first round worthy offensive skill players, with a few more in the neighborhood: Williams, Maye, Bowers, Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Daniels, Penix, McCarthy, Thomas.  That's about 21 of the first round slots that won't be OLs without projecting reaches.

If teams want to reach for OLs like Blake Fisher or Kingsley Suamataia or Patrick Paul in the first round, be my guest.  We should stay put and draft BPA.

Only trade up for players when the value becomes +10 or more.

Apparently Pat McAfee is right that you need to have vision to see the potential with Drake Maye judging by the mountain of obfuscation and bull**** that's piled up on him over the past four months.  But I still don't understand why it takes any vision at all to see it with him.  It took me 30 minutes of watching him to realize how special he was.  He is so unbelievably easy to see coming that I simply don't understand how so many people are missing on him.  The only guys who have been easier to see coming since Andrew Luck came out are Caleb, Burrow, and Lawrence.  He is a thousand times easier to see coming than Josh Allen and Justin Herbert were, and the fact that those two ended up being mega-hits and offer such easy comparisons for Maye makes Maye a true no-brainer.

Just now, Est.1974 said:

Love the Jacob Cowing pick. He was my alternative option to Jamari Thrash.

Yeah, I wanted to get one of either of those two after the huge runs in the second and third at the position.

116 - Jacksonville selects Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona

@actorguy1 you're up next my friend

These are the fourth round picks that have happened so far:

101 - Cade Stover, TE, Ohio St
102 - Jared Wiley, TE, TCU
103 - Beaux Limmer, OL, Arkansas
104 - Will Shipley, RB, Clemson
105 - Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame
106 - Roger Rosengarten, OL, Washington
107 - Braelon Allen, RB, Wisconsin
108 - Decamerion Richardson, DB, Miss St
109 - Devontez Walker, WR, UNC
110 - Erick All, TE, Iowa
111 - Tanner McClachlan, TE, Arizona
112 - Marshawn Lloyd, RB, USC
113 - Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville
114 - Mason McCormick, OL, SD St

115 - Cam Hart, DB, Notre Dame

116 - Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona

114 - Jacksonville selects Mason McCormick, OL, South Dakota St

@WelshSkinsFan you are next

96. Jacksonville selects Jarrian Jones, CB, Florida State

9 minutes ago, Panninho said:

 

Thanks for sharing this.

This sounds like hyperbole in every direction without any real nuances to the arguments. Don't know who the scouts are obviously and I cannot really judge McGinn but if that is the level of information he gets back - what is it really worth?

Nothing.  McGinn is a gossip monger and his sources are usually idiotic and unprofessional.

10 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Yeah, sorry Minnesota. We can’t just let you have any quarterback that you want. I’m sure that sounds really great to you but that’s just not gonna work for me.

Yeah **** them.  If they wanted Drake, they should have sucked more.

Pick 48: Jacksonville selects T'Vondre Sweat, DL, Texas

14 minutes ago, Llevron said:

I’m selfish so I want you to do a game for me. But I know that’s not worth your time really. I hesitate to say I would pay you to do it but that’s probably still not work you wanna do at the end of the day. But I’m really curious. 
 

I appreciate the tips though. 

My take is not even close to good enough to pay for, trust me.  And a game won't be enough evidence to demonstrate a tendency.  That's something that really only becomes clear over a long period of time.  But I might do a game.  We have a few weeks to kill before the draft and it's always a good idea to go back to cut ups late in the process, as arguments tend to get too off-field driven and abstract.

53 minutes ago, Llevron said:

What do you think about that Chase Daniel film I posted a few pages back? Nothing in that cut up makes him look how you describe him and that confuses me. Arm talent way more than average. He sees the field and moves well in the pocket. Even consistently going through progressions. I don’t see what you see. Can you help me with that? 

Chase Daniel is a flat out bad analyst.  It makes sense that he would like Jayden and miss all of his flaws because he's spent the last six months growing increasingly shrill in his love for Justin Fields.  The quick answer is that you can't rely on these kinds of decontextualized and incomplete videos from analysts to form your takes.  The format where they highlight and discuss just a handful of plays (necessary for producing watchable content) is bad at showing tendencies and playing styles.  Last year I got lazy and didn't watch as many games or cut ups and started relying on these kinds of analysts to form takes, and that's how I ended up convinced Tyree Wilson was the next Willie McGinest despite my gut reaction from watching him live and in a few cut ups being that he was nothing special.  The hit rate for these analysts isn't great, even when they are really knowledgeable and impressive at overanalyzing film, so you might as well form your own raw takes.  Their content can be good for first learning what to watch for, but you have to go further than they do.

In order to identify a player's style/tendencies, you have to watch a ton of them and see how they play the game at an instinctive level.  What do they do as a routine, and what do they default to when the script fails or they face duress?  The only way I can present evidence of Jayden's tendencies and style at a standard that would be convincing is to chart his games.  That's like 15-20 hours of work just for this season alone, I'm not doing that, and the product wouldn't be readable content anyway.  And after you watch enough players and games, you don't really have to do that any more to form reliable gestalts.  But here are some keys to look for when you want to analyze a player's vision/processing, awareness, and arm talent.  And remember, you are judging these by an NFL standard.  Keeping that NFL standard in mind is tricky, but critical for assessing translation. 

If you want to assess a QB's vision or processing, you need to look for how often he gets stuck on reads.  Does he hesitate to make decisions or is he decisive and consistently throws with anticipation?  Does he often find receivers who uncover late?  Does he make that process look easy and natural?  Does he look comfortable creating from the pocket?  Does he make throws all over the field?

Pocket feel/awareness: does he read pressure well?  Can he do it and adjust his drop without looking at the rush?  Does he generally maintain space to throw.  Does he play with urgency and an accurate mental clock?  When he takes off does he navigate trash well?  Does he run into blocks or tackles?

Arm talent: remember, you're judging this by an NFL standard.  An average NFL arm can throw it deep and stick deep outs on a rope.  Above average means doing special things, like off balance downfield throws to the field-side hash.  Driving throws when you don't have space to step into them.  Driving second and third level throws with loft to clear middle zone defenders while maintaining velocity/rotation.  Throwing the ball downfield without "loading up" for it.  Throwing deep balls late and without having to put a ton of air under them.

14 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Why would they? They played in 2 totally different systems in college, they have totally different throwing motions and mechanics. What is there to compare besides they both can run? 

The fact that they are 1-2 run QBs with terrible pocket feel, average arm talent, and limited vision of the field.  They both played in stacked college offenses with elite coaching.  Fields had a better body and was better at a younger age though.

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

This is actually mostly pretty spot on lolol. 

I know, it's a weirdly perfect summary of their "brand."

How come no one wants to make the comparison between Justin Fields and Jayden Daniels?

4 hours ago, Llevron said:

Oh, this was already posted. Here is Kurt Warner going over the Alabama game for Daniels. Not a good game for him. 

OK, at first I thought the elbow thing was just some sort of weird photo editing issue, but that is the second image I've seen where it looks ****ed up.  Truly, what is going on with his elbow?

29 minutes ago, Conn said:

I’ll admit I didn’t realize Pickens had such an impressive RAS chart! It’s still kind of confusing given his poor vert and good but not amazing 4.47. Especially given he’s not particularly heavy for a 6’3” guy. I guess his broad and elite 10-yard split at his height are pulling a lot of value on this RAS chart. So I stand corrected on that. 
 

My instinct is still that he’s a natural plucker and Tez is the opposite, so I don’t love it as a comp. A shorter and faster Jon Baldwin feels better—but really I’m reaching for someone I perceive to be less of a natural catcher of the ball than Pickens because that’s really where the Tez comparison is wanting imo. Hell of an athlete, limited route runner with poor hands. Donte Moncrief maybe? 

Yeah Tez doesn't have anywhere near as spectacular of hands as Pickens.  The comparison I've seen for Tez that makes sense from a physical comparison is DJ Chark.  Donte Moncrief makes sense too though.

These kinds of players usually disappoint, which is why I don't think I'd go for Tez at the end of the day.  But he becomes tempting in the third round.  Tall receivers with elite speed and genuine deep threat skills are rare.  If someone can fix his hands, they are going to get a vertical menace.

Pick 17: Jacksonville selects Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

3 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Does Tez have a plus catch radius? Doesn't seem like it. He drops a lot when he has to extend past his frame.

 

He is intriguing though, and I would be tempted to grab him in the 3rd.

Yeah he's got a pretty crazy catch radius.  He can sky and Drake made some hay off of throwing it super high to him by the sidelines last year.  He had a catch late in the third quarter of the Syracuse game that showed off his ability to get up for a throw most receivers would have had no shot at.

1 hour ago, Conn said:

Dyami doesn’t have stopwatch speed (or non-stopwatch speed lol). His issue is he was a “deep threat” without the measurables, speed, hands, or route nuance to actually fulfill that role in the NFL.

 

I agree that Pickens doesn’t feel like the right comp for Tez because Pickens isn’t a freak athlete but is a fluid athlete and natural downfield snagger of the ball despite his small hands. Great catch radius but some concentration drops. Tez is a freak athlete but questionable as a functional football player in terms of his smoothness as route runner and his garbage hands. Maybe it can be fixed, maybe not—but they seem to have opposite problems to me. Pickens is a “football player” through and through rather than a freak measurables paper tiger…and yeah, he has some personality concerns. 

I think you are underestimating Pickens's athleticism.  His RAS had him 176 out of 2768 WRs at the time he came out, so he was a 93 percentile athlete rather than a 98 percentile.  Still very much elite for the position:

Pickens is not a "football player."  To me that term is shorthand for someone who is more than the sum of their parts, is tough, ultra focused, consistently high motor, etc.  Pickens is a circus catching freak talent who is a major diva with wild swings in his level of effort and focus.  He's a headache that you put up with because his peaks are so high.  Tez will be a similar player at the next level, except he's an even better athlete and he's not as much of a knucklehead.

6 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

He also gets through his progressions fast.

No he doesn't.  He has a pronounced tendency of hanging on reads and hesitating on throws.  He doesn't make anticipation plays, and spends an eternity in the pocket.  He also does a lousy job reading pressure.

Finally settled on an NFL comp for Tez Walker: George Pickens.  Stupidly talented, but isn't a very serious player and has the kind of flaws that make you want to write him off.  So talented that you can't do it though.

Obviously has strong concerns about his hands and his overall focus and competitiveness.  Strong concerns about the quality of his route tree and the effort he gives.  But he's 6'2 with ridiculously long arms, a 40 inch vertical, and a 4.36 40.  He's a 98th percentile athlete for an NFL receiver.

If you can (and should) give Drake Maye a pass for the dysfunction of UNCs offense last year, Tez deserves some grace too.

He can work on his hands and his chemistry with Maye over time.  What can't be developed is his god given speed and catch radius.  He's gotta be in play somewhere in the second, and if he makes it to our pick in the third, why not take the swing?

22 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

Yeah, Logan weighted 80% tape, 10% combine, 10% pro-day in the evaluation process.  He also said this group got a late start (not a bad thing) due to staff assembly.  He suggested they probably have a 'lean' by now but not decided.

Adam Peters has been scouting this QB class for years.  He took this job in 15 seconds of consideration, and #2 is pretty much the only reason it was attractive.  He knows who he likes and he just has to build consensus.  Maybe the coaches got a later start, but they are not the primary drivers of this decision.  He put the staff together, they're going to agree with him.

If Peters didn't have a firm plan by now, I don't think he would have traded Howell.  It makes sense that the FO is telling everyone they are undecided and still working through the process of evaluation, because they should still work on gathering and considering information up until the end.  But I find it hard to believe (and would even be concerned if) they don't have a clear preference by this point.

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Weird reply. Two posts above mine there is someone saying he threw closer to 80 by their count. I mean, I didn’t count them myself…I’m not that much of a Maybe. But I don’t know why that’s so seemingly upsetting to you. 

It's clskinsfan's birthday and my guy is celebrating.  We've got some wild ass vibes in here tonight and I'm enjoying it.