Rufus T Firefly

I don't know that he wouldn't be a good mentor, but I have more reasons to think he wouldn't than that he would. He doesn't play smart and has always made too many dumb mistakes, which doesn't make me think of him as the guy you want teaching, but it's possible he could be. The reports from Cincy last year indicated that he basically whined when he was benched for Ryan Finley, so that doesn't seem like a mentor. He publicly complained that he wanted out of there for a chance to start and now he's indicating the same in Dallas. There's nothing wrong with a guy wanting to start, of course, but why would you think that guy is interested in spending his time helping out youngsters? My bigger point, though, is why bring in Dalton to be a mentor and let Smith go? Everyone who has been near Smith has praised him in that role, and he'll likely cost less. I could see letting Smith go and bringing in Fitzpatrick, who has also been praised in that role, is a better player at this point, and seems more durable. But Dalton? Why?

We're not going to carry 4 QBs on the active roster, so Dalton precludes either a rookie or one of Allen or Heinicke being around next year. With their ages and amount of time Heinicke and Allen have played in the system, and the potential they've shown, spending cap space on a mediocre (at best) veteran stopgap to go with them is just a silly way to manage your roster. And if you're bringing in a rookie, I can't imagine why anyone thinks Dalton would be the top choice to be a mentor to him.

He's really young, as fast as anyone, versatile and ascending. He really hasn't been used well in Carolina, they started to this year. The ESPN article points out that his catch rate jumped from 51.4% to 79.4% in a year and "completion percentage over expectation" rose from minus 4.7 to plus 6.6. He's an improving player with a lot more potential to do more. As for the $10 mil+ price tag, that's where the market is going. To look at some of the other WRs in that projection and their prices: Allen Robinson $21 mil per year Chris Godwin $19.5m Kenny Golladay $18.5m Juju Smith-Schuster $17.5m Will Fuller- Franchise Tag (!) Corey Davis- $13m

I don't get why you take known mediocrity in Dalton at a cost, when you have mediocrity with at least a chance of upside in Heinicke and Allen. I can see bringing back Smith at a couple of mil or signing Fitzpatrick for the same to mentor a rookie since they both get praised for that role, but I don't get what Dalton does for us.

Are you telling us we're not hot?

The 8th pick from Carolina is better value than the 3rd and two future 1sts. Especially when you consider the 1s are coming from a team with the league's best defense that's just added Stafford. That means the only way the deal makes sense, especially with the quick trigger they pulled on it, is that they view taking Goff and his contract as a positive. That is frankly mind-blowing for an NFL Front Office to come to that evaluation. He's not a top 20 QB. That's not even arguable a this point. If you were watching many of their games last year, you can just read McVay's expressions and know that he desperately wanted away from the guy. And to play him for two years, you have to pay him over $53 mil. 53! And 41 of it is guaranteed. How the hell can you look at that amount of money for that QB and think "yes, please"? In the days before the deal, there was some discussing what they would have to pay to get rid of that contract and guessing next year's 1st plus something this year, maybe the 2nd. And Detroit instead took it as a positive. It's even worse in context. The justification for getting future draft capital rather than upfront is because they are supposedly accepting that they are in a multi-year rebuild. Well, that's smart. Except you wanted to get a QB who, at his upside could maybe, maybe (fingers crossed) win you a game or two and hurt your draft positions the next couple of years. How do those two halves work together? Meanwhile, the level of "analysis" we get from writers and reporters these days means we have to keep hearing about the 'amazing haul' Detroit got. It's kind of hysterical.

Don't know if any of you saw this, but ESPN did a piece predicting where 43 WRs will end up next year. Free Agents, trade candidates, retirements, etc. It's an insider article, but here's the link: https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30795432/predictions-43-nfl-wide-receivers-change-teams-2021-free-agency-allen-robinson-chris-godwin-kenny-golladay-more Was more interested in the contract guesses than where they thought people would end up. They had us signing Curtis Samuel for 4 years, $46 mil (sounds good to me) A couple of other guys I'd watch if their price tags end up where ESPN had them- Josh Reynolds, two years $10 mil (to the Bengals) David Moore, two years, $8.5 mil (to the Panthers) Samuel and one of those two would make for a nice WR corps. Anyway, there's the article for what it's worth (Probably not much)

And creates another one in Minnesota.

Yeah, you said something ridiculous and now are pretending your words meant something different. I would literally have trouble taking anyone's football knowledge seriously if they try to tell me they consider Carr a top 10 QB. 15th is arguable,. I would disagree, but wouldn't consider it laughable.

This is true- if you decide that eh older guys are gonna be worse, the younger guys don't get better, the injured guys don't recover, don't count the guys who were playing last year who might not next year and don't count the rookies who will play next year, you can make a case that Carr is the 10th best QB in the league. Still wouldn't be right, but at least you could make that case.

Would they do that deal even without Carr in it? I'd guess no.

So, the only non-elite QBs to win Super Bowls are ones who elevate their games in the postseason, so now the plan is to win titles with a non-elite QB who doesn't do anything special in the playoffs? Of course, you were just using the 49ers historically great team with a mediocre QB not winning the Super Bowl because their QB wasn't good enough as an example of how to win a Super Bowl without a great QB, so you know, .....

It's not only the less likely route to a title, but the game manager-ish guys who've won SBs lately (Eli, Flacco, Foles) all did it by unexpectedly elevating their play in those postseasons. So, do you really want to bank on some decent QB and then just hope he finds some miracle gear to take it home? Doesn't sound like much of a plan. It should also be pointed out that each of the above have other postseasons where they didn't elevate their games.

How is $41 mil for one year of a non-top 20 QB a negative? I guess I don't have an answer for that.

That "rule of thumb" gets wildly overstated, especially in regards to 1sts. Teams aren't so shortsighted that they are willing to give future picks for lower picks now very often. If even a few GMs were willing to trade next year's 1 for a 2 this year, we would see that deal happen multiple times per draft. And, if you offer a 3rd to someone for a 1 two years hence, there is no one who would take that, probably ever (is Vinny a GM somewhere?). That said, a 3 this year and a 1 next year is less value than the inverse. It just is. That means that that part of the deal isn't enough for Stafford. And Goff's contract is such an albatross, a 1st out in 2023 isn't nearly enough to take it on. So, they really didn't get enough for Stafford plus they didn't get enough for taking Goff. Just a bad deal. They deserve a little credit both for realizing they need to rebuild and not being hung up on value in the short term, and for not taking less to move him out of the conference. But they still just didn't get enough. Worse is that they are counting on getting their value out of future 1s from a team with maybe the league's best defense, one of the game's best offensive minds, good surrounding offensive talent, and now with Stafford. It will be at least a bit of an upset if either of those picks are higher than, say, 25 or so. My guess is that Detroit is foolish enough to view Goff as close to neutral value and just got wowed by the idea of multiple 1s, plus "more". Just not a deal that bodes well for that organization's future.

Would think if there's any way the Rams could trade for Stafford, they would have to get Detroit to take Goff's contract off their hands. So, what do you give up to get Stafford and get someone to take $43 mil of Goff, when you have no 1st round pick this year? Something like this year's 2nd, the next two 1s and a couple of players, maybe Taylor Rapp? Seems like it has to be something crazy like that.

In fairness, he said he was the Voice of Reason, not the Voice of Calculation.

That's just a ludicrously bad take from PFT (this is my shocked face 🙄) 1. They are treating the "1/3 of the league" report as gospel and an exact figure. 2. It's only been a couple of days and the season isn't over yet. 3. Just because Mike Florio thinks a team "should be interested" doesn't mean it's surprising that they aren't calling. The Jets and Dolphins have high picks and are rebuilding. It's not news if those teams are thinking draft pick, or Watson (or Tua) and not a 32 year old Stafford. The Falcons could draft someone or stick with Ryan. The Browns? After Mayfield took them to the final 8? The Steelers aren't going to be talking trade with Ben still around. The Saints are like 90 mil over the cap. The Rams are way over and Goff's guaranteed salary is unmovable. The Vikings and Bears surely know he's not getting moved inside the division. 4. Even if he's right that there's some news here, 10 teams bidding on Stafford is plenty and it's likely going to lead to a real high price tag for him.

With the injury histories of those two and Allen possibly being on PUP, that scenario might get Steven Montez a chance.

Would you pay him $25.5 mil if he were a FA? I sure wouldn't. So, why the hell would you trade a draft pick for the right to?

My guess would be it's a lot to do with Saleh and Joe Douglas. They have a youngster who looks like a stud LT and some promising receivers. They have a lot of draft capitol and a ton of cap space. If you believe in the brain trust, it's easy to see them being a power in a couple of years. And you make a lot of money being in NY.

I'd do that, too. You'd have to convince Rivera to be patient to buy into that, of course. We wouldn't take a cap hit to release him in 2023, btw. For LA, the problem is they're way over the cap and even after trading Goff I'm not sure they'd have enough cap to add another QB they could win with, and they'd be way down in draft picks to trade for one, or to fill out their roster with cheap young players.

No way they could release Goff. They could theoretically take the small hit if they traded him, but who the hell wants to pay Goff $28 mil? Let alone give something up for the right to?