CommDownMan

If they wanted a 1st taken, I think they would be willing to take a 2022. I don't think they'd harm team teams for the actions of one. Think if it was to Raiders and they traded it to Texans... or something like that. It would be pretty darn messy.

I don;t disagree and as much as I enjoy looking at cap hits and how a team does X,Y,Z in the offseason, I always look at the current year because the variables over 3, 4, 5 years gets to be very fluid. The guys we call "cap guys" probably truly spend a good portion of their time in these items. Forecasting, if-then scenarios, structuring deals to reduce risk... Ultimately, I do agree that we could have all 4 on FA contracts. Once you add the remaining 49 it just depends on what else we want to do. Only 15 guys are over 2 million currently (Scherff, Darby, Hopkins, FAs will change). If we put some big deals out in that 20ish range, it certainly changes.

Interesting analysis. Hard to see full picture since many other pieces to get to that cap number. So you've got 4yr/80mill for Allen and Payne (20 AAV) 4yr/81 Sweat (20.25AAV) 4yr/117.3 for Chase. (29.3 AAV) https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/03/09/highest-paid-defensive-linemen-nfl-ranking-d-linemen-salary/5008147002/ Top DT Aaron Donald is 22.5, with a majority in the 16-17 range. I'm would imagine 17 would be the highest we go since these guys aren't the top top guys. Sweat when he is FA ~20 is likely fair if he continues to produce. IDK what a Chase deal looks like, but Joey Bosa 27, so 29mill seems like a fair starting point (Although Bosa 27, Garrett 25, Lawrence 21...it drops off quickly). I would think if his trajectory continues they try to make it 5 or 6 year deal. Franchise values go up, so the actual values will be higher come time to sign them. But I think the 2020 tag values give a decent idea. 4 mill gap from DT to DE and our DTs are sooner. Hoping those are less than your guess. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-franchise-tag-meaning-deadline-2020-values-rules/1nn0kl8x7hg5210kevqk2oim4w

Darnold was a was a favorite of McShay if I recall. Could be they are hoping for a second chance so they can point to themselves being right in their assessment. IDK about Jeremiah and I don't feel like digging about McShay. Just a thought though. https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2021/01/28/new-york-jets-deshaun-watson-slightly-better-sam-darnold-espn-todd-mcshay/ Ok, he recently called Watson "slightly better" than Darnold. I don't need to go back to the draft...

Darnold feels much more like a Josh Rosen deal then a Stafford deal. These first round mentions seem silly. He's been out there like you say and unlike Rosen, the decision on the 5yr option is basically now. He has showed a bit more than Rosen, but not so much that you can have a high level of confidence (at least I don't). The cost control is nearly gone, so that reduces the value. Rosen was 2nd and 5th. I have a hard time believing Darnold is worth more. Yes he's shown more, but between cost increase and years on control, I don't think you can go higher. Especially when a team that has the #2 pick is likely to do the same thing Arizona did and take a new guy to take over. Wait the entire offseason and see what happens during the draft. If you like Darnold better than a 3 round guy, then and only then do I consider him. And that's only if the coaching staff deems he's a greater value than what we've got. Would have about a week after to decide on the 5th year option (if Jets haven't already selected).

What I find interesting between Wentz and Goff deals, they were similar in max value (Wentz 128 vs Goff 134), but Goff had more roster bonuses that lowered the pro-rated bonus. Basically, the Lions take on more money because the roster bonuses aren't paid. The dead hit for the Eagles is 12 million more, despite a overall contract that was 6 million less. As much as I'm torn on the trade overall for the Rams, they structured the deal better to get out of it early.

A trade would cut the 60 mill to 34 (still a big number), but give them one mill in savings. edit: UK said above, but pictures Interestingly, the Eagles are 50+ over the cap this year, but projected as 40 mill UNDER the cap the following year. Designated post-June 1st trade (second table) would push 25 mill which isn't good for them, but cuts the over number in half this year. Post June 1st trade 9 mill this year (meaning a 25 mill hit pushed to next year).

I get it, but like multiple WalMarts, 2 Ron-Marts is a franchise. Made me think of deadpool.

It's so big there are are already 2 (Ron-Marty Hurney and Ron-Martin Mayhew). NSFW (4 letter word and can't filter out...) https://stchucky.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/franchise.gif?w=640

18 is too much, but it really depends for the details for Scherff. Below is the closest I see to the expected contract I've seen. (AAV 14mil) I've seen people mention Larry Warford and he might be more10-12ish range. But I personally don't really know how to compare Guards enough to truly evaluate. He opted out last year, so what shape he's in is another concern. Potentially a decent option if we go away from Scherff as they are similar age.

I believe the tag was about 18 mill. Unlikely. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/how-does-franchise-tag-work-in-the-nfl/1w7mwh36nqnfw1qb7lne9t9ka0 14.781 last year, so with above 120% modifier basically 17.75mil.

Ok, now we have hit rock bottom. Let's go back the other way.

Apparently every QB is worth a first, so lets just trade Alex, Heinieke and Allen for 3 firsts. Seems legit. There are the 3 1sts to add to 19 and boom Watson.

The same Alex Smith that was acquired by a desperate and terrible GM for a 3rd and solid DB. 2 1sts.... no.

Yeah, I meant 4th, but clearly missed (and I used below which didn't mention 6th). I still think they try to get something for him and I don't think the value is Stafford level high. Either way, i was agreeing they won't pay picks to save the extra 5 mill. The pick given in my scenario was higher going to Atl. https://bloggingdirty.com/2021/01/06/matt-ryan-contract-trade/ "During the 2017 NFL offseason, the Houston Texans dumped Osweiler’s contract to the Cleveland Browns but also give up a second-round pick. The only compensation the Texans received in return is a fourth-round pick and cap space."

14.7 mill savings pre-June 1, 19 post. So I think 55 to 59m. (ish)

Ryan is better than Brock, so I don't see it quite the same either. In that case Brock and a 2nd for a 3rd. I could see based on their cap situation, the need for rebuild and position to draft the next QB, that something like a 2nd for Ryan and a 4th could work. How they clear space is the main thing here, and they need to find creative ways. Maybe it doesn't work, but that is what I'd aim for if he is the target.

If they choose Sweat as the guy they could resign Kerrigan and get a ~3/4 rounder to do a 70/30. I'd hate giving up Sweat but that could be a solution.

Things like this make me wonder about Kyle Smith and other scouts going before the draft is over. Seems like there wish list could get out. I'm wondering if they are tanking this year and prioritized future picks. Meaning we could make it 2022 3rd over 74. Value chart isn't the same, but it doesn't seem to be a factor for Goff/Stafford trade. 6 in the top 100 next year might be worth it and we get another piece this year.

So I haven't seen it listed, but at 253 pages who know if I simply didn't see it... Say we strike out on all the trade candidates and don't see the FA options as upgrades. Heinicke (RFA) and Allen (ERFA) are likely to be back and I'd assume we look at a development pick in the draft. If Alex doesn't want to retire, and it's known he's seen more as a backup (since the team is looking at Stafford and other options), would it be reasonable to ask for a restructure/pay cut (if nothing else it's worth asking). There is no more guaranteed money in his deal, and he isn't likely to get starting money offers elsewhere. Fitz was an 8 mill and 10ish is around what I see for the backup roles. Would 2/20 contract restructure with 10 mill guaranteed this year (and 2 years to keep the 4.3 mill prorated bonus from original contract unchanged) and year 2 remains not guaranteed. Cap hit would drop to 14.3 vs 23.3, saving 9 million. Deadhit 2022 would be same 4.3mill if we waited until next year to cut. If we did draft pick and had Heinicke, Allen and Smith keeping 4 on roster doesn't make sense (so maybe make this decision if we don't get a draft pick we like). Either way, that 9 mill would be a difference to a year one cap hit of a decent size contract.

The phrase is "take for granted" not granite. I wasn't saying anything about Heinicke...

Granted. Unless you are calling him a rock solid option

Trade would make it less dead money and a post-June trade designation would save them 23 million this year (with 26 dead pushed into next year). Trading team would have 23, 23, 28ish mill hits. Not likely, but at 36 million under they need to be creative.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/zach-ertz-12316/market-value/ with the down year I could see you being right. Sportrac has the market value at 9.3 mill. If a team wants him and doesn't want to risk FA I could see a low pick.

"He will not play for the Eagles next year" https://overthecap.com/player/zach-ertz/112/ 1 year 8 mill to other team (in a trade). Eagle have no leverage and he had a down year. I imagine a pretty low pick at best. 6th at best? The last 2 years void, so if they cut or trade him it's the same dead money for them.