Switchgear

They've just spent 6+ months watching their people tortured and killed, their country get ravaged, the Russians lying about who they are. I'm not advocating for Ukraine to invade Russia, but I would understand it. The fear, of course, is that Russia would use nukes on them. I wonder if that will be enough to keep Ukraine from extracting a pound of flesh. Maybe taking back all occupied territory, including Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, will be enough. Maybe forcing Russia to pay reparations under threat of continued fighting. I don't think those are off the table. I could see Russia saying "You can't invade us, we aren't at war with you!", if Ukraine pushes them out entirely and continues across the previous. Their hypocrisy knows no limit. I wonder if there are discussions about this happening at the UN.

There were a few articles posted in this thread, I think in July, that predicted that the Russian military would collapse in late August. It was based on troop loss/fatigue, morale, and logistical challenges. They were off by a bit, and I don't think we're seeing a total collapse (yet), but maybe they were on to something. Here's hoping. Edit:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-media-admits-vladimir-putins-worst-case-scenario-in-ukraine-war-is-coming-true We're Russia's boogeyman

Quite the headline

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3 I just found this today, lots of detail about the current situation Key Takeaways Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults southeast and southwest of Izyum and west of Lyman but remain unlikely to secure major advances towards Slovyansk. Russian forces made minor gains in the eastern part of Severodonetsk, but Ukrainian forces continues to launch localized counterattacks in Severodonetsk and its outskirts. Russian forces did not attempt to launch assaults on Avdiivka. Russian forces failed to regain lost positions in northeastern Kherson Oblast and continued to defend previously occupied positions. Russian occupation authorities began issuing Russian passports in Kherson City and Melitopol, though they continue to face challenges establishing societal control over occupied territories and ending Ukrainian partisan actions.

It's not so fun watching another team make 3 after 3, I'd imagine

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/explaining-electric-plug-hybrid-electric-vehicles Just sayin'

It's frustrating that even with a clear threat, leftists/Democrats/centrists in this country can't stop blaming each other. Susan Sarandon is trending on twitter, with people laying blame (deservedly) at her feet for some of this, and others defending her to the hilt and pointing out how elected Democrats failed to prevent this (also fair). I get it's an emotional time, but seriously. Figure out who is really at fault (the right wing/conservatives). Put your focus on them. Work on getting enough reasonable people elected to turn this around. The infighting is such a bad look, at a time when the left/center needs to figure out how to be unified.

The right wing/Russian propaganda is so pernicious. I drive through Western Pennsylvania frequently. One of the small towns I go through has a couple of electronic billboards that constantly display right wing garbage. One of the images that popped up as I drove past yesterday was the words "Putin's Puppy", with a miniature Biden sitting in Putin's lap. The projection, denial of reality, and general stupidity of it all was mind boggling. I'm sure they dismiss Trump calling Putin a genius as fake news. Anything that doesn't fit the narrative is dismissed out of hand. It's been like this for years, by the way, constant propaganda broadcast to the region. It's working. Lots of Trump flags, people buying into the narrative. Fox news, right wing radio, they're convincing people that aren't politically savvy (to be kind) to ignore the evidence of their eyes and ears.

I hope you don't buy rubles. I agree that there's money to be made. But every ruble purchase creates a bit of demand, which helps restore their economy. Profiting off of Ukraine's tragedy is not something I'm comfortable with. The same goes for Europe and Russian gas and other products, of course on a much larger scale. We collectively have to stop funding Putin, if we want to stop enabling him.

I know it isn't going to happen, but if Ukraine was able to fully repel the invasion, take back Crimea, and even grab some Russian territory, how great that would be. My hope for Russia:

https://twitter.com/ElBeardsley/status/1509468052202692611 There already are mass graves in Mariupol. No more mass graves sounds good, but what will convince the Russians to stop?

They did reopen their stock market, though with limits in place (like no foreign holders being allowed to sell until today) https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-europe-stock-markets-f5653a258caf9c9ad100b853b81317b2 It hasn't dropped as precipitously as I'd hoped. They seem to have staved off the complete collapse that was expected, sadly. That's the thing, between the Russian ability to absorb suffering, and the iron-fisted management, they just might scrape through this. And the takeaway will be, we can do what we want, we just have to outlast the West. It's frustrating to watch happen.

That sounds great, except that the Russian takeaway, if it goes down like that, is that they can invade their neighbors, and deal with short term pain while it's ongoing. They can continue to grab what they're able, commit as many war crimes as they like, pretend that NATO is the problem, and retool for the next go around. Who knows how much longer Putin will live and be in power. If it's 15 or 20 more years, how much more damage can he do? Kicking the can down the road is the expedient answer. We shouldn't be looking for those anymore, that's what got us in this situation.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling

A long (and really good) article about why Putin is doing what he is doing: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/12/putins-thousand-year-war/ Some excerpts There's a lot more, I'm trying not to quote too much of the article. Their finishing statement is that if Russian leadership tried to embrace democracy, Russia would likely cease to exist. So this anti-Western mindset is a survival mechanism for them. No excuses for what they're doing, just trying to understand the mindset that leads to this craziness.

It's a major sign of weakness that Russia is asking for China's help, they must be really desperate. I wonder if that means they're running out of missiles and bombs, since that seems to be what is working best for them now. That, and arresting anything that appears to be dissent. China has been broadcasting pro-Russian information on their state television, China and Russia do tend to support each other. I guess we'll see how far that extends. Xi and Vlad enjoy not having to do that pesky "transfer of power" thing, though some appear to think that isn't a big deal in terms of differentiating between nations. I happen to think that it does make a difference, a huge difference, for whatever that is worth.

I don't think our intel agencies intentionally downplay their KIA. I think they're cautious, wanting verifiable deaths. The situation on the ground is what it is, the different estimates don't matter. It is frustrating that, on the one hand, days ago the talk was how the Russian logistics were all screwed up, they don't have food or fuel and are running out of ammo, yet the reality is they're still attacking, still shelling, not giving up. So it can't be but so dire for them. I certainly hope that they run out of everything and have to surrender, it just isn't happening like that. Yet.

It's like we're in a days. Hour priorities are all messed up. It's frustrating that we're saying the right things, but we don't really minute. I just hope the Ukrainians can second destroy the Russian army.