NoCalMike

Ok man, I'll throw your number in my phone and shoot you a text sometime in the next week. If you're able to make it for the Hangover tag round cool, if not, we have our inaugural 2023 kickoff tag round in January some time. Rocklin course is the next closest, I think the park is called Johnson-Springview park. Just down the road from shady oaks actually.

The main issue with Heinicke for me is that originally the main downside was all about his physical limitations, but he supposedly made up for it with his mobility, knowledge of the offense, and.......moxie. The problem is we aren't seeing a lot of the first two on film anymore from him. He is running less than ever and he is missing open receivers all over the place, throwing into coverage when there are open guys etc etc......if you combine that with the physical stuff that can't be coached away, it is a recipe for disaster the longer he is in there as the fill-in starter. QB2's have a shelf life as starters, it is just a fact, and his is getting long in the tooth.

I am part of a local tag group called Low Xpectations, we just wrapped our final tag round for 2022 last weekend but we are doing a New Years Eve "Before the hangover" round on Saturday the 31st at Rocklin course, which I assume you know where it is. We are always looking to expand the group, we are up to about 25ish people now. This round is more unofficial for fun, the official stuff starts back up in January. If you're interested, I'll shoot you a text and/or you can look up Low Xpectations group on facebook. Yeah I am a family man now too, don't get to throw discs like I used to and my game has suffered because of it. I used to be the guy who'd always have a change of clothes in the car and hit the course after work, now I am picking the kids up from school instead. But I still manage to get out there (various courses) on most Saturdays. Candlestick definitely had the character & history. I was there in 1999 for the OT win to clinch the NFC East, that was actually my first NFL game ever. I like Levi well enough, but I also think part of it is because of how new it still looks & feels. *cheers*

If anyone is on twitter (still) there are usually daily twitter spaces for Commanders fans to talk about all things related to the team, pre game, post game, weekly victory or defeat therapy sessions. We also invite fans of our opponent in for "war rooms" where we give predictions and analysis for why we think what we think. It is pretty fun. They can get a bit spicy sometimes, more so the War room spaces, but for the most part it's just to chat with fans about the team. If anyone is interested, feel free to join any time, even if you just want to pop in as a listener and don't want to talk.

Oh nice! I was supposed to be going with a bigger group but once the schedule released and they all saw Christmas Eve....it scared them away. In fact, I wasn't going to go to the game, but out of character I decided at the last minute to say what the hell and go anyway. Yeah I know Orangevale, I throw discs at shady oaks frequently. Not sure how long you have been around these forums, but I used to be a big tailgater and helped organize the events when the team hit any of the west coast opponents, but I was young & single with more disposable income back then. Seems like a lifetime ago at this point. I grabbed a parking pass for the Green Lot, it is in the non-tailgating section, just because for this specific game it is more about getting out of there ASAP after the game because it can be a nightmare. At least the game is at 1pm so it'll be over by later afternoon and we should be home in time for a "proper Christmas eve" I'll admit I am little more dejected going into this game than I would have been had they beat the NYG. Not that it would have made a huge difference regarding my thoughts on this game, but I think my demeanor would have been different and less stressed. This will be my second time at the Stadium, first to see The Commanders. Hoping for a big upset, but I am also realistic when matching these two teams up with the current available rosters. If the game is competitive and in question going into the 4th quarter, I will be content.

I predict..............that I will be there! Yes it is true, I will be in Levi Stadium to watch this. Honesty, the only path to victory I see is if we can be the team (defense) that is the first to make Purdy look like a rookie QB selected last in the draft. I know he has looked very good on ESPN and NFL network, but if you've watched him beyond that, he is throwing plenty of troublesome passes and has sort of had that TH-type luck where DB's just keep dropping them. The key will be containing CMC so Purdy isn't enjoying 3rd & short every single time. Force Purdy to shoulder more of the offense and see if the defense can grab a couple turnovers. Would love to see Chase Young out there, but I'm not counting on it. I sort of already regret shelling out the money for this because I told myself not to do it unless the team beat the NYG last week, but I already had to miss seeing the Commanders last time they were here (The Chase Young fumble return for a TD game) so I figure why not. This is the first time I will have seen the team in person playing a meaningful game in December since 2005 in Arizona. I also am going to approach the game stress free as I am not expecting them to win, and more just holding out a sliver of hope for the unexpected. Anyone else out here in NorCal going?

I get the reasons why TH might have been seen as the better option at one time, but I don't really see the style of offense he runs as being very effective against the 49ers defense. The running game will attempt to do it's thing, but the 49ers have the #1 run defense so assuming every 2nd and 3rd down are going to be a fight, that short passing game is going to be very cut throat against a fast & hard hitting linebacking core, especially if TH isn't throwing the ball on tight lines with some velocity. The only real hole in the 49ers defense right now is their secondary, which isn't even bad, but down some starters. Our offense has the skill position players to get a lot of yards, but you have to be able to hit on those bigger passes. Not saying Wentz would be super effective either due to the 49ers pass rush, but at least his ability to push the ball vertically downfield with velocity could be an asset. If Rivera is adamant about TH starting the game, fine.....but I won't be surprised if he is benched at some point. Rivera sort of came out and said the 3rd quarter TD drive by TH saved him from being benched last week.

I am getting tired of Rivera say the same thing every week. Look, Heinicke is in there because supposedly his mobility is supposed to aid the O-line (it hasn't that much) and because he is supposed to know the offense extremely well. The way he is missing reads and making bad decisions, it sure doesn't seem like he knows the offense that well. The reasons for keeping him in there are running thin. The cons are outweighing the pros.

The screen shots don't show enough? They show the DE biting on the hand off. What else do they need to show?

It sounds like Ron is right up to the line in the sand to make a change at QB, I just wonder why Ron would even give Heinicke the entire 49ers job to save his job. If Heinicke gets out to another mediocre start, but the game is still in doubt going into halftime, just bench him then. This isn't like throwing a rookie out there into a pressure situation. Wentz, like him or not is a vet QB that should be able to handle the situation.....as well as he could behind this O-line that is. I don't think Wentz is any kind of magic pill at this point, but there's just too much being left on the field at this point. At the time of season you need to be playing your best, Heinicke is regressing and/or just not improving on the small things.

It's like everyone forgot last season when after rattling off a handful of wins, the same thing happened with Heinicke. That is what happens when a QB2 who's ceiling is QB2 plays for an extended amount of time. No matter how much experience he gets, how many reps, how many film rooms, his ceiling is not rising.

The 49ers front 7 is elite, their secondary is good when healthy but they are banged up. You are going to see the difference between a good D-line vs an actual complete front 7 when we face them Saturday. If we had a better O-line and QB, then I would have more confidence in the 49ers game because right now you can definitely throw the ball on them, but the QB needs time and also needs....to be a good QB. The 49ers might be the first team we face in a long time that makes our run game pedestrian. BRob might still end up with decent numbers because I expect his number of carries to be way higher in that game, but I am not so sure he is going to have a high ypc in that game. What's unfortunate is we actually have the talent at the skill positions to give the 49ers problems, but we lack the two most important pieces, a QB & and O-line to protect the QB.

If you think last night was messy, wait until you see this offense try to operate against a defense that can actually stop the run.

I couldn't even bring myself to participate in the gameday thread. At 3-7.....it was another case of looking at the stats to see one team dominating, yet the scoreboard showed the opposite. Two weeks, including a bye week to prepare for this opponent, and THAT is what they brought? I don't even know what to say that would be constructive at this point. I'll just say this, nothing about last night changes my opinion on where the team is headed big picture as long as they keep drafting and building, however what last night does show is that they are still a couple of offseasons away and the problems they do have aren't ones that are very fixable within this season. If I want to bring myself more pain & disappointment I can look at the playoff math and say, hey a win over the Browns and maybe we catch a Dallas team resting Week 18 and we end up 9-7-1 and sneak into the 7th seed, however I am not expecting that to happen. I'll have more to say, with more specifics later.....but for now.....ugh.

We have to just believe at this point that the injuries are a little worse than we intially thought. Not so much with Chase, we knew the magnitude of that one, but guys like St Juste....if the bye week wasn't enough, then it's a pretty legit sprain.

The O-line being addressed also affects the QB position though. There is a big what if regarding had Wentz never got hurt, and he was playing when the O-line finally had that month and a half or so of consistency, plus BRob emerging and become a threat. I am in no way suggesting Wentz would have balled out necessarily, just that we really have to let go of the idea that Heinicke is in there for much else other than circumstance. If you address the O-line, then for all we know it isn't going to be Wentz or Heinicke....or even Howell starting Week 1 2023, and they go grab another vet. This O-line currently is so detrimental to the passing game that if you fix it, it opens up a ton of options that the coaches likely feel safe going with, but I highly doubt they decide after 2 offseason's of trying to replace him, that QB2 Heinicke suddenly becomes the choice.

I mean lets consider the situation, there is no reason for either team not to be super amped up for the game. It's an NFC East division game in December with the loser's playoff chances pretty much dropping from 80% to under 50% if they lose. If either team isn't extremely amped up for this, I am not sure how else you get them amped. I also think another aspect to consider is how often is Fed Ex rocking lately? Not just well attended, but that actual crazy loud non-stop playoff atmosphere? That could help the Commanders defense if the Giants try to pull something like going pass heavy early. A couple false starts or holding penalties early.......

Only issue with scenario A is if our defense forces a turnover early, or if the offense comes out efficiently like the first game, maybe the Giants start pressing or pushing panic button too early and they end up making mistakes on the field. I honestly expect both teams to look the same for the most part as far as the gameplan. If there is one team that has more options to adjust it is the Commanders because of all the weapons they have. all the pre snap motion they do etc etc.....the Giants besides Barkley who isn't 100% and DJ's legs.....what exactly else are they going to be able to focus on making happen with any kind of consistency?

I got my eye on a pair of tickets for next Saturday at Levi Stadium, but I am holding out for a win tomorrow night first. I just see the game tomorrow night as basically being our "tea leaves" game. Win, and they likely only need 1 more win to secure a playoff spot, that way I can go to the 49ers game with the attitude of whatever happens, happens, and I am just happy to be able to watch the team in person. If they lose, then suddenly they are scrambling to possibly need 2 out of their last 3 games to be wins.....and that 49ers game could send them back to .500.

The problem is Heinicke is a QB2 and his ceiling is also that, and some of the fans and even media are holding onto hope that he is going to suddenly develop into something else with more reps. Now you can point to our specific circumstances, mainly O-line, as to why Rivera might be giving Heinicke a longer leash, but to me it is just not even a debate, argument, or conversation about who is the better QB if the O-line was capable of any kind of pass protection consistently. In fact, I am surprised at how seemingly surprised some of this fan base would be if Heinicke got benched. I still think the coaches view Wentz as the better QB, but they are between a rock & a hard place because the team is winning despite the poor QB play, but last game against the Giants they teetered so close to the QB play (not saying that is the only reason) causing a loss that I think it is absurd that so many folks find it out of the question that they would go back to Wentz assuming they thought the O-line was better suited to protect.

I still am having flashbacks to the first game, in OT, when we marched right to midfield like it was nothing at all, then bumbled our way backwards. The first game was about missed opportunities. I don't think the Giants showed much in that game to suggest they were a "few plays away" where as the Commanders racked up 400 yards of offense and have a few clear aspects that if they shore up should lead to a win.

Snyder's issues go well beyond the play on the field and a winning team isn't going to change the reasons for why he is being pushed out. I do sort of wonder if in Snyder's head, if he sees the team winning and potential to be a bigger contender next season.....does he try to drag out the process longer in order to possibly escape with a trophy.

I am just an idiot fan, but the way I take Ron's comments on Chase are that physically he is ready, as far as the injury being healed, however what Chase needs is the mental hurdle to trust his body again. Now what's interesting to me is that usually that mental hurdle has to happen with reps on the field in an actual game, right? The player has to go out there, get bodied up by the opponent, and almost inadvertently be forced into using the body part that was repaired and after a few instances of that where they realize "oh look, that didn't hurt at all, and I was actually able to push off on that leg" etc etc......I am wondering if Rivera understands this, but because of a combination of how the D-line is playing already and the fact that most of our games are so razor-thin close, that Ron doesn't want to sacrifice any reps in games that he doesn't absolutely have to, and maybe he's worried that putting Chase out there in the normal mental state of a player coming back from this kind of injury, could cost them some potential big plays. Now if at this point it isn't THAT or something along those lines, then I give up assuming that Chase is even physically ready.

The 49ers didn't look the same with Purdy at QB. In fact their passing offense very much resembled ours for a lot of the game, complete with Purdy throwing a few passes right into defender's hands that just happened to drop them. One even looked like a likely pick 6. That said, the 49ers O-line gives Purdy all day to throw so while he may look inexperienced and frantic for a couple of quarters, he will still hit Kittle with a nice pass downfield when the guy gets open. Jimmy G is better than Heinicke but even he is a borderline QB1. He is good enough to be a bridge, but I'd never pay Jimmy G the kind of money you have to commit to a multiple year franchise QB. He also runs a WCO behind a pretty good O-line. Now looking to our match up against the 49ers, the O-line is the problem. I don't care what QB we have back there, they are going to be rushed, pressured, hit, & sacked a lot. The question is what do you think has a better chance of combatting a pass rush like that, Heinicke's mobility that he sort of uses sometimes, but not nearly as much as he used to and/or that we hoped he'd still be....or Wentz's arm that can flick the ball over the top of a defense with a banged up secondary that has been shown they can be thrown on by teams with lesser skill position players than we have? The answer right now is likely neither, unfortunately because the O-line has been that bad. However, what concerns me about Heinicke are the throws he is (or also actually isn't) making when he does have good protection. I also am worried that a lot of his shorter passes, the way he throws the ball so softly, are going to be broken up a lot against that defense. I think it could be a game where both defenses are dominating, but our defense ends up gassed by the 3rd quarter and gives up a score or two and while the score might not show a dominant win for the 49ers, what it did show is that the Commanders never really did anything to threaten in the game.

Yes. This. The point is that Heinicke isn't playing that well CURRENTLY, but the team is winning despite of it. We need to stop comparing the entire team now to what the entire team looked like during the first six weeks. The defense has come on as monsters, and Brian Robinson returning and taking a couple of games to get his legs really transformed this running game. The more I look at the running game, the more I tend to think had Robinson not come back so quick (if at all this season) and Gibson was still shouldering 75-90% of the burden, then the running game wouldn't be half as good as it is now which in turn would reflect on Heinicke as well. I don't think anyone is arguing that Wentz looked great before he was injured, nor does anyone suggest that we should bring Wentz back in and go back to the kind of offense we were running before Heinicke came in. The question people don't seem to want to address is whether or not Wentz has a better chance to succeed in the present version of the offense that runs the ball at a much higher clip and also with a defense that isn't giving up as much points as they were the first two months, because the run-heavy offense certainly hasn't made Heinicke any better outside of perhaps giving him less chances to throw an ill advised pass, but his actual play isn't any better and wouldn't be seen as acceptable if the rest of the team wasn't carrying dude over the finish line most of the time.