kleese

Well, for the first time in awhile, we did not get one to go our way. Lions beat Jets late.

Ah, lovely I-44. I used to have work obligations in Springfield so I’ve crossed that border back and forth many, many times. While the scenery on the actual drive is nothing to write home about, the Grand Lake area is quite scenic. It’s a good trek off the highway, but I’ve always liked that area.

I am always a tad the opposite. They are an average team at very very best. I’d prefer them to get a win or two out of their system

I am still not as on board with that as everyone else. I think our biggest weakness is going up against an explosive passing game. Kirk and Jefferson in the dome would pose a lot of issues for us. I truly think we could work our way into a 16-13 type game with SF that can go either way. Absolutely— and I mentioned that Thursday as a secondary reason I wanted SF to beat Seattle.

Don’t love that outcome as it may very well lead to Vikings being sluggish on Xmas Eve vs Giants.

Yes for two reasons: 1. Seems most would prefer Minny over SF in potential playoff match up. This helps that cause. 2. Ensures Vikings will be totally dialed in when they play Giants next week.

If we win Sunday, I believe we will be in a win-and-in situation on Christmas Eve.

I have run the simulation on the playoff machine a few times; each time with us going 2-2 and finishing 9-7-1. In all cases, we were the 6 seed. Of course I am basing this on what I THINK is most likely to happen; and predicting every game correctly for each of the final four weeks is of course, impossible. However, I still keep coming up with Seattle as the 7 seed. Mainly because I’m giving them a win in week 17 at home vs Jets. Also, I think SF is going to pass Minnesota for the 2 seed. I think SF finishes 3-1 and Minny finishes 2-2; they would tie and SF wins tie-breaker.

Quick reminder to go ahead and root for Colts to beat Vikings Saturday. Why? 1. Would put Vikings on a two game losing streak when Giants go to Minny on Christmas Eve. Would be nice for that to be a game where Minnesota is fully locked in. 2. If you prefer potentially playing at Minnesota over at SF (I’m actually not so sure about that) then you want SF to track down Vikings. We don’t want Vikings to lose to Giants so they would need to catch losses elsewhere. The other two Saturday games don’t have any effect on us unless you are really searching for something in Browns game with us playing them week 17. Sunday early… Jets over Lions obviously. If you still have hopes of catching Dallas for 5 seed, here is what needs to happen for our game with them week 18 to have 5 seed on the line: Over the next 3 weeks, we need to make up two games on them. So if we go 3-0, they need to go 1-2. If we go 2-1, they need to go 0-3. They play at Jags, Eagles, at Titans; so it’s not impossible that they drop two of those. I have a hard time seeing them go 0-3. So, it can’t hurt to root for Jags to beat Boys Sunday as well. If they lose this week and we win, then I’d say that door at least cracks open for us.

What I’m saying is that if we beat the Giants we probably need to finish 0-3 to miss playoffs. And even if we did finish 0-3, there is still a decent shot we’d get in.

I think another simple way to look at it… it’s 4 way battle for 2 spots between the Commanders, Giants, Seahawks, and Lions. The winner of the SNF game becomes an overwhelming favorite to get one of the spots. Would most likely require an 0-3 finish to miss out— and even then, there are some not-so-crazy scenarios where they still get in. The loser of SNF football will STILL be the 7 seed after the game. At that point it would be a real battle between SNF loser, Seahawks, and Lions. A week to week type thing. So in reality, this isn’t even close to a “must win” considering the loser would still be in the playoffs if season ended this week. What a win does is put a playoff spot on an absolute tee. And I guess it’s OK to look at Packers too. If they go 3-0 next few weeks and get to 8-8 by week 18, they might have something to play for in the final game vs Lions.

Here is a simple scenario where we can clinch as early Xmas Eve: —We beat Giants Two of following happen: —Seahawks lose at KC —Lions to EITHER Jets or Panthers —Giants lose to Vikings If that were to happen, we would know by kickoff of our game at SF— and it would then be a “win and in” situation. And if we lost, we’d then be in a “magic number is 1” situation where we would need to win one of last two or the above teams need to lose one of last two. In other words, beating the Giants and MISSING the playoffs is gonna be really, really hard.

Actually Clark’s last season was 1995 with Dolphins. So he wasn’t involved in those games in 1996. He played two years in desert—- 93/94

Was before my time, but I am familiar with that game and the controversy surrounding it. Was probably the most memorable moment in our history with them. The most important/memorable game was the 1984 season finale at RFK— for the NFCE championship. A rare year during that period where the Cardinals weren’t lousy. A great game with a dramatic ending— believe it’s still available on YouTube. The two losses to them in 1996 were both horrific. Two of my most haunting fan losses all these years later. First game was the “Boomer Esiason game” and second was “Romeo Bandison game.” Those games didn’t make me hate the Cardinals though. Just made me hate myself 🤣

This is Niners/Chickens game is about to kick and I can’t stress how much it would benefit us if SF wins. Again, not only does it help in the very obvious way of handing Seattle another loss, but I believe it INCREASES our odds in the game at SF next week. I truly believe that. And if you’re looking father ahead and would rather play Minny than SF in playoffs, then you also want Niners to win tonight. What it would REALLY do is give us significant more margin for error even if we lose to Giants. Go Niners!

Sports hate generally stems from ONE thing— barricades. How often has the opposing team kept you from reaching a goal? How many big games have you played against them? With that will also come resentment/jealousy of their fans, etc. I’ve never heard any Redskins fan say they hate the Cardinals— even though we played them twice a year for 30 years. They were bottom feeders— never posed a threat to us. So no hatred developed. Outside of the three teams in the division there are two other NFC teams I’ve always “hated” — Bears and 49ers. No coincidence at all that those two teams were threats during our glory years. I hated the Niners as a kid and how good they were— I’ve carried that with me forever. As others have mentioned, Seattle is probably the team that has entered the discussion the past 20 years. They’ve eliminated us three times in our last five playoff trips— with two of them (2005/2012) being years where it felt we REALLY had a shot. Couple that with the ST21 stuff from 2007 and that’s where you get “hate.” We have very little history with the Packers. Only a handful of memorable games and never really clashed with them when both teams were competing at same level at same time.

So I guess you think Ron is an awesome GM then? If the coaching staff is below average that means that a good staff would have them better than 7-5-1? Are you saying there is a lot more talented on the roster than what the team has produced in win column?

The problem with those odds is that it assumes all things will remain equal— which they won’t. It assumes no injury changes, no motivation changes, etc. It basically assumes we will lose to SF and Dallas and probably has us as not too heavy a favorite to beat Cleveland. Therefore, if they factor in a loss to Giants, our odds crater. Again, I think we are getting in with 9 wins, even if we lose to Giants. I think our odds of winning 2 out of last 3 are probably higher than 20%— especially considering in all likelihood Dallas will have their spot wrapped. As painful as it is to say this— Giants game is not a must win. If we lose, the Niners game won’t likely be a must win either. We’d enter “must” territory if we lose next two.. then it would be a must to win the last two. Now, if you’re talking “must win” in terms of making this all feel legit? Then yeah, they must win one of these next two— and really Sunday night is paramount.

I’ll keep hammering this home— the Niners beating Seattle Thurs has hidden benefits for us. If SF wins, they clinch the West. And realistically their last three games won’t mean a ton unless it really matters to them to try and be the 2 seed as opposed to 3 (and I’m not sure why it really would). Now, by no means do I think the Niners would just punt their final three games or rest starters. I don’t think they’d do that until week 18. But if they beat Seattle it absolutely increases the odds they exhale a bit, don’t take chances with any banged up players, and the law of averages catches up a bit as well. Much more likely they could let their guard down a tad after beating Seattle as opposed to losing to them.

Problem for Lions is they need to finish with one MORE win than all of the other three teams. The tie between us and Giants was a terrible outcome for them and they lose a tie breaker to Seahawks. So let’s say Lions finish 3-1 and land at 9-8. Well, two of the three they are chasing need to finish with 8 or fewer— so a max of one more win per team.

This is getting WAY ahead of ourselves, but for those that like to indulge in such speculation—- if we make the playoffs I would mentally prepare yourselves for a Sat game. I’ll spare you the details, but the way things shake out with the network rules/schedule this year, it will almost certainly be two NFC games on Sat and one at 4:25 Sun— which will most likely be reserved for Dallas. Maybe if they play Carolina or Atlanta that could change but it’s probably close to a lock if they play TB. Yep, and I don’t think they want to do that.

I think it is different this year. The Eagles will already have a bye week secured. The may not want to completely sit everyone and have their guys out for essentially two films weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if they treated it more like a pre-season game and started guys and got them out quickly. That said, the last thing we’d want is to be in a situation where the Eagles HAD to win week 18.

Rooting Guide for the Upcoming Week with some “sleeper” stuff to pay attention to: 49ers over Seahawks: For all the obvious reasons. If Seattle loses this one, they are in a world of hurt with a trip to Arrowhead looming. The Jets the following week won’t be a picnic either. Not a must win for Seattle but their loss to Carolina really puts the pressure on them here. I called the Carolina win last week and now this week I’m a little worried about a Seattle bounce-back. It’s a much bigger game for Seahawks than Niners, at home, short week, no Deebo, maybe Purdy due for a fall, etc etc. So I’ll be a little antsy about this one— I will say the Seahawks defense is terrible and their run D is just abysmal. Bad team to be playing when you can’t stop the run. The “hidden” benefit to the Niners winning is if they win, they clinch the division— and they keep the heat on Vikings who play Giants on Christmas Eve. It may also make them a tad less motivated in their game against us. If they beat Seattle, their final 3 games really aren’t that big for them. A SF win has one obvious and a couple of more subtle advantages for us. Jets over Lions: If we clinch, I’ll actually start rooting for the Lions— fun team and I’d love to see them get a shot at someone in playoffs. But for now, I’d prefer to remove them from our mix. Again, if we get 10 wins, Lions don’t matter. If we get to 9 wins, we just need them to lose once. I won’t be on pins and needles for this one by any means, but I’ll be pulling for the Jets for sure— they kinda owe us one against Detroit from 1997 (let’s see who else remembers that). As far as the rooting guide goes, those are the only two that REALLY matter. If you want to dig a bit deeper— or a LOT deeper: Colts over Vikings: Would keep the Vikings highly motivated for their game the following week vs Giants Panthers over Steelers: I like the Panthers odds to win their division. They will be right there with a win over Pitt. Carolina plays Detroit next week— would love for that game to have big meaning for Carolina. Rams over Packers: This is a crazy stretch, but if you are calculating our chances to get in at 8-8-1, then we’d need GB to lose one more. I am undecided on what I want in the Eagles and Cowboys games. On one hand, you could argue we want whatever locks Dallas into their spot before week 18, lessening the odds they play their full starters against us. At same time that would mean Philly would have little to play for week 18 vs Giants. There really isn’t a scenario now where Dallas would be locked into the 5 seed and Eagles were still playing for the 1 seed. So it’s pick your poison on that one. I don’t really have a rooting interest there. I GUESS with Jags, Eagles. Titans on deck you could argue a Dallas collapse and we could still catch them, but that isn’t on my radar.

People are over-exaggerating how hard it will be to make playoffs if we lose to Giants. No doubt if we lose Sunday, finishing ahead of Giants will be tough. But if we lose to Giants and win out, we are 95% going to get in. Where people are getting this wrong is the scenario where we lose to Giants and then finish 2-1 to end at 9-7-1. In that scenario, I’d say we have about a 60-70% to still get in. If we lose to NY and finish 9-7-1, we would need TWO of the following to get in: —Giants finish 0-3 —Seahawks finish 2-2 or worse —Lions lose once

Count me in on the “not so fast” group preferring to go to Minnesota over SF. I 100% agree that the 49ers are better/more talented team than Vikings. But SF IS starting a third-string rookie QB and we have a VERY stout defense. They may have also lost Deebo. In addition, the Dome is a more difficult road environment in general. We will see how it all shakes out— by that time, perhaps I’d be on board preferring Minny as well, but I don’t think it’s an open and shut case. Kirk + JJ is a very tough task.