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Your Iowa Hawkeye Cauci Predictions


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Well for those interested, the Iowa Caucuses are Monday.

Right now, Kerry has a surpising lead but that was probably before his comments from 1996 were aired. Sorry but those Hawkeyes love the dept. of agriculture and those subsidies.

Also, the Caucus are about Organization and he doesn't have much.

Here's How I think the election will turn out Monday:

1. Dean- The Caucus are about organization and he has it. I predict he will a close one.

2. Edwards- He will be the suprise of the night, winning a close 2nd. No he doesn't have much organization but I think voters will decide Gephardt is just to old and established and suprisely tilt their vote to Edwards.

3. Gephardt- He has organization but I just think voters will not vote for him. They will decide Edwards will be the better choice. He will suffer a death blow and drop out before the New Hampshire primaries 8 days later.

4. Kerry- he doesn't have a good organization but has surged this week to take a lead. Thing is, it's too little, too late. Also, those comments he made in 1996 are bound to hurt him.

So here's how I see it:

1. Dean- 24%

2. Edwards- 21%

3. Gephardt- 17%

4. Kerry- 15-%

5. Others- 23%

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I think Edwards has a few things to say that are interesting. He backed Bush on Iraq and has supported him somewhat strongly on postwar Iraq.

I'm not sold on the guy, just intereseted in what he has to say. I think when he speaks of seeking out help from NATO and the UN on U.S. terms, he is re-iterating some of the same things Bush has said, though it is easier for Edwards to say it from where he stands, which isn't the Oval office.

I'm gonna get bashed here for posting this but here goes


(Senate - July 30, 2003)

President Bush did the right thing today by taking personal responsibility for the inclusion of misleading intelligence information in this year's State of the Union. But he has yet to turn his full attention to the more urgent matter at hand, winning the peace in Iraq.

To finish the fight and held build a free Iraq, President Bush must create a new national and international consensus for the benefit of our nation's security, the future of the Middle East and the well-being of America's fighting men and women.

A new consensus is only possible, however, if the administration is honest enough to admit what is not working in Iraq and courageous enough to design a new approach that will.

The President must acknowledge a plain truth that everybody knows. This war is not over, and his administration declared a premature victory. Our military did a superb job toppling Saddam; now they need the support, the resources, and the right troops to defeat the significant pockets of guerilla opposition that remain.

Unfortunately, unless we adjust our course, the management of postwar Iraq may well be viewed by history as the most consequential mismanagement of an international crisis by any U.S. administration since Vietnam.

Notwithstanding the deaths of Qusai and Odai Hussein, the joint U.S.-UK mission is in deep trouble. Nine months ago, I called for the administration to enlist NATO in comprehensive planning for postwar Iraq. What we are seeing now is the costs of failing to plan and refusing to internationalize our approach.

The departure of Saddam Hussein from power is an opportunity to change the course of history in the Middle East. That is one reason I supported and celebrated Iraq's liberation. It could have been, should have been, and still might prove a victory for people everywhere who respect human rights, cherish freedom, seek to halt the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and believe that peace between Arabs and Israel is both achievable and essential.

To succeed, we will need all the help we can get - from NATO and other allies, the UN, and friends within the Arab and Muslim communities. The president apparently believes that we can succeed largely on our own.

The American people are starving for some straight talk. There is no reason except failed presidential leadership that 90 percent of the foreign troops in Iraq are American. As commander-in-chief, he should be able to assure the families of our armed forces in Iraq that absolutely everything is being done to help them achieve their mission and come home safely and soon. He could not honestly provide such an assurance today.

Our troops won't get the help or protection they need unless the administration offers to share authority and responsibility for reconstruction efforts in Iraq. The president should not let past disagreements or misguided ideology stand in the way. The administration has little patience for diplomacy, so they argue that a UN framework means a loss of American control.

That is simply untrue. Like we did in Kosovo, we should ask the UN to provide a mandate for a coalition-led force that will work in consultation with, but not under the control of, the UN civilian administration. That will preserve the absolutely essential American control of our forces, but create a framework in which many nations can participate comfortably.

The Bush administration must level with the world and with the American people. A new consensus must be built on the truth. Winning the peace in Iraq will require many months, probably several years. It will cost tens of billions of dollars more than can be accounted for by Iraqi oil revenues. It will entail grave, ongoing risks to our armed forces. But it is a necessary, even noble, mission in which every law-abiding and freedom-loving country has a stake, and to which each should be invited to contribute not as a favor to America, but as a gift to our common future.

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Originally posted by Ford

Dean will lose .. he's done an awful job of picking up the undecided votes as it comes down to the end with his moronic statements and twisted vision for this country.

That would be nice :D

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I think this is either going to be a Kerry or Gephardt win. Iowa's a traditional union and farming state, and I think about these newcomers to the national stage, Edwards and Dean, will cause undecided Dems to gravitate to familiar names. Plus, Dean's a wild card on top of that, which is not going to endear him to any moderate Dems.

I told my wife that I think this election will be for Dems what 1996 was for Republicans. They're likely going to end up with a mainline party guy - Gephardt or Kerry (comparable to Dole in 1996, a "safe" pick) - on the ticket, who will have a tough time inspiring voter turnout in the election and will lose to a very organized and powerful incumbent President.

To me, the only person with both the firepower and potential appeal to beat Bush would be Clark, and we won't know what he can do until New Hampshire at the earliest. But of course he's also the least organized and experienced. But I think he's got the best potential to win among the Dems.

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Kerry WINS, Edwards 2nd, Dean Third, Gephardt 4th & dropping out!

Wow, I got 2 things right. I predicted John Edwards would come in 2nd and Gephardt will suffer a fatal blow and drop out. Old Dick is speaking right now.

Dean has came in 3rd place and looked like a maniac about to explode. I'm shocked that Kerry's surge translated into a win over Dean.

With about 90% of the vote in:

Kerry- 38%

Edwards- 32%

Dean- 18%

Gephardt- 11%

Well the democratic race is wide open now and Dean could suffer a death blow next week.

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Wow. I am quite surprised. Kerry 1st, Edwards 2nd.

Never thought it would happen. Still not huge on the Dems candidates but hey, it's nice to see Dean take a beating after all the sh*t that has been spewing out of his mouth.

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Originally posted by luckydevil

Dean is done.

Maybe, but we'll know more after New Hampshire. If he doesn't win there, then I'll agree. And after Kerry's win in Iowa, Dean may not win despite being in his own backyard against Kerry, another New Englander.

Either way, Kerry should do well there. I'm more interested to see how Edwards and Clark do there.

I was thinking last night how jumbled this race will remain if the finish in New Hampshire is Dean, Edwards, Kerry.

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