jbooma Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 You need to find someone willing to dance, and even though it is early only one team right now has 2 # 1's and they are the one team that won't do it. I don't want to give up the #5 pick for a 1st and a second it has to be 2 # 1's, a history in the past #5 picks: 2003 - Terence Newmen CB (going to be very good) 2002 - Quentin Jammer CB (showing promise) 2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson RB (pretty good, KJ could be like him) 2000 - Jamal Lewis RB (2000 yards) 1999 - Rickey Williams RB (not to shabby) this also would have been Champ if we didn't trade he isn't to bad either 1998 - Curtis Enis RB (bust) 1997 - Bryant Westbrook CB (decent player) 1996 - Cedric Jones DE (don't know him) 1995 - Kerry Collins QB (good QB) 1994 - Trev Alberts LB (great announcer, isn't this the pick that made Kiper famous?) 1993 - John Copeland DE (good player) The one thing that is obvious is the #5 pick has been very good for RB's, only one bad one chosen. Maybe KJ will be the next great RB from the #5. As you see no TE's or safetys taken that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyKilmer Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Need that pick value chart to help on any trade for lower or later picks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 every pick is different come draft day. It depends who is available, when we pick, and if there is someone we need worth that pick, and if we can make a trade and still get someone we want later (ie Ramsey) do it. who knows 3 months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulldog Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 what we do in april will be predicated on what we DON'T get in free agency. we land a Darren Howard and Sam Adams for the DL in free agency and I think you will see the club grab a RB or S #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted January 14, 2004 Author Share Posted January 14, 2004 Originally posted by bulldog what we do in april will be predicated on what we DON'T get in free agency. Bulldog you are 100% correct. What I am curious when we resign champ what are the chances we get Taylor still with the 5th? That would be a lot of money going to two defensive backs, not including Smoot being a free agent next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Originally posted by jbooma The one thing that is obvious is the #5 pick has been very good for RB's, only one bad one chosen. Maybe KJ will be the next great RB from the #5. As you see no TE's or safetys taken that high. Jbooma, with all due respect, it's ludicrous to take a particular slot, say #5, and draw any conclusions from a sample of 10. There's nothing magic about #5 that separates it meaningfully from #3, #4, #6 and #7. The fact is, the last safety to make it to the Hall of Fame -- Ronnie Lott -- was drafted quite high: #8. The reason you haven't seen a lot of safeties drafted so high is because there haven't been safeties worth drafting so high, with the exception of Roy Williams. You are turning a sensible argument -- that Sean Taylor might be the best safety prospect ever -- on its head, by arguing that safeties aren't generally selected high. Of course they aren't, because prospects as good as Lott, Williams and Taylor are that rare. As for RBs, Kevin Jones is nowhere near as well regarded a prospect as the other guys on your RB list -- guys like Ricky Williams and Jamal Williams. That they play the same position means nothing. If we draft for need and reach for a RB, even by trading down, we have reasonable odds this year of ending up with a stinker. Here are some noteworthy crap RBs taken high recently: Thomas Jones (#7) Ron Dayne (#11) Curtis Ennis (#5) Lawrence Phillips (#6) Tim Biakabutuka (#8) I'm willing to be bet that each team that picked these guys had a major need at RB and thought it couldn't miss with these picks. It's a disastrous mistake to lead with need at the top of the draft. You go with the player -- the guy who's so good, he's going to dominate the NFL for a decade. You make room for that player if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted January 14, 2004 Author Share Posted January 14, 2004 First off ASF isn't a little early to be comparing him to Lott?? Yes Taylor is going to be good but he isn't HOF material just yet. The other point I made which you didn't talk about it is when we sign champ do we still want to pay another defensive back as much?? The #5 pick will command anywhere from 10 to 12 million in SB. Champ will get about 15 million in SB. That is a lot of money for 2 defensive backs, not including that Smoot is going to be a free agent :doh: If we don't sign champ then who knows what happens. I still think a RB like Jones or Jackson will pay bigger dividends then Taylor will for our team and the way it is set up. We need more help at RB then we do at S. What do you think about Winslow then?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Montilar Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 The fact is, the last safety to make it to the Hall of Fame -- Ronnie Lott -- was drafted quite high: #8. What many seem to have forgotten is Lott was a VERY good corner BEFORE switching over to safety. He was not drafted as a safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Originally posted by jbooma What do you think about Winslow then?? My hunch is that the only reason he's getting this attention is because of his name. If his name was Bob Allendorf, would we be having this conversation? The other thing that makes me suspicious is that the game has changed since Kellen Winslow Sr., because of Kellen Winslow Sr. It's now far more common for pass-catching TEs to emerge, following the path cut by KW Sr. This makes me suspect that even if Kellen Winslow Jr. were every bit as good as his father (which I doubt), his potential impact would be far less. Defenses are bigger, stronger and faster -- and there are more TEs with good skills out there. The 2002 draft class, for example, was loaded with top TE prospects. Finally, there are supposedly character issues with Winslow Jr. I'm willing to tolerate character issues for a player who's truly elite, but I'm not convinced Winslow is at that level. So I'd pass. This is not to say Winslow can't have an outstanding NFL career. I just think he's less likely to have as much impact as Taylor is: it's a question of probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Originally posted by jbooma First off ASF isn't a little early to be comparing him to Lott?? Yes Taylor is going to be good but he isn't HOF material just yet. The other point I made which you didn't talk about it is when we sign champ do we still want to pay another defensive back as much?? The #5 pick will command anywhere from 10 to 12 million in SB. Champ will get about 15 million in SB. That is a lot of money for 2 defensive backs, not including that Smoot is going to be a free agent :doh: No, it's not too early to compare him to Lott, because we're talking about draft slotting -- and Lott went quite high. I was directly addressing your point about not taking safeties high. (Tip of the hat to Montilair -- yes he was drafted as a CB and converted. OK, so ... ?) As for team budget, I'm on record advocating getting rid of Trotter's contract (either via pay cut or player cut). More money can be taken out of Samuels's contract through a long-term extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dchogs Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 L.Tomlinson is better than pretty good. if i needed a running back, i would start with him as he can do it all. that he got 1600+ yds and over 100 receptions on a terrible charger team with a bad OL is nothing short of amazing. alright...carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panel Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Hey, If for some reason the redskins draft ME, at the #5 position, that doesn't mean that I'll be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Glory Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Originally posted by bulldog what we do in april will be predicated on what we DON'T get in free agency. we land a Darren Howard and Sam Adams for the DL in free agency and I think you will see the club grab a RB or S #1. This is the most intelligent post I've seen and it is exactly how I feel. Free agency is going to determine our draft. But...we still need to take a young D-lineman. We have to start developing our own lineman and stop depending on free agency to do everything for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldskool Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 As divergent a philosophy as Spurrier and Gibbs have in player personnel and after Spurrier had molded this offense into his vision, we really need to trade down and restock our personnel. Lets not mention the D line problems that we havent addressed correctly in years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duke Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Okay, how about trading our #5 this year for the #1 and #4, let's say someone in the 15-20 slot, and their #1 next year? Does that make more sense? Edit---just wanna throw in some option, nothing serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fezzik Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 I say we keep the 5th pick and draft a quality DE or DT. Ohio's Will Smith or Oklahoma's Tommie Harris are two college players that I like and might warrent the high pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabblerouser Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 You really have to wait until after the combines and all-star games to see where everyone racks and stacks. As was mentioned earlier we'll have to see who we aquire during FA. We probably won't trade down until right before we are to pick; best hope is to get two division rivals with a craving for the same player. I sort of like the idea of getting a lower #1 this year and an additional #1 next year; it seems to be what the Pats have been doing the last few years and always having 2 #1s to bargin with. Anyone know what the value of a number 1 next year is typically worth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlobberKnockinFootball Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Just keep the pick and select the best talent available. When you trade down you're taking a bigger gamble than if you just picked at that position. We haven't been this high up in a long time. Take a primiere talent and be done with it. I'm tired of this over analyzing everything. We are at number 5 for a reason. Because we suck. Take someone that is going to help your team right away. :rant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 I'm all for trading down between 5 and 10 sports for somebodies 2nd or 3rd rounder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michael_33 Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 One thing is for sure....Our TE's flat out suck!! So to me...not only is the TE position an absolute need for us,but Winslow is a premier player that would and could possibly elevate Ramsey's game to another level... So all you people saying that winslow isn't worth the #5 slot,ask yourself this question?Would you take Shockey,Gonzalas or a shannon sharpe at the #5 this year?If you knew what you would get with them? Now I realize that Winslow hasn't done anything yet,so he shouldn't be compared to anyone...But when you get in the red zone,that just leaves one more guy the defense has to account for...Therefore,opening up your running game! Which is what good or great TE's do for you.... Now as far as Taylor is concerned....He's a guy you don't want to pass up either...If he has the making of a great Safety,then you have to take him... With DL addressed in the offseason,can you imagine our secondary looking like this....? CB=Smoot CB=Bailey SS=Taylor FS=Ohalete If we got any pressure from our D-line,this would be a top 3 defense in the NFL....!Mark my words...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonnyJ Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Would you take Shockey,Gonzalas or a shannon sharpe at the #5 this year? No. Not for the Redskins. Gibbs used the TE as a nice complement to his passing game, but he never really featured it. Granted, Gibbs is a master at adapting to his personnel, and could probably devise ways to feature such a talent prominently. But he could probably make do with a Bob Allendorf , too. Couple that with Winslow's rep as a head case, and I just don't see the wisdom with picking him. The strategy at #5 is simple - if you keep it, you take the highest-rated player on the board, as long as you don't already have a long-term solution at that spot, the player is a can't-miss prospect, is absolutely dedicated to his craft, and is an outstanding citizen. Simple, ain't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destino Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Originally posted by michael_33 Would you take Shockey,Gonzalas or a shannon sharpe at the #5 this year? Would you rather have a Shockey or a Tomlinson? A Sharpe or a Kris Jenkins? No matter how good a TE is there are other positions where your tam benefits more from talent. If the skins sign a running back and some d-line free agents then I would consider a TE with our first pick in the draft a good idea. The way I see it is, we should draft a d-line stud with #5 and a running back in the second round. At least one of these backs should be available in the second round...... 1. Kevin Jones 2. Steven Jackson 3. Greg Jones 4. Carnell Williams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVskinsfan Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 After pick #4, lets see what calls come in for pick #5. There will be plenty of rumors, inuendo, smokescreens etc, but first things first I cannot see San Diego staying with the #1 again! Draft order will change multiple times, lets just see if the skind bite on a decent offer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Posse81 Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Originally posted by SonnyJ No. Not for the Redskins. Gibbs used the TE as a nice complement to his passing game, but he never really featured it. Granted, Gibbs is a master at adapting to his personnel, and could probably devise ways to feature such a talent prominently. But he could probably make do with a Bob Allendorf , too. Couple that with Winslow's rep as a head case, and I just don't see the wisdom with picking him. The strategy at #5 is simple - if you keep it, you take the highest-rated player on the board, as long as you don't already have a long-term solution at that spot, the player is a can't-miss prospect, is absolutely dedicated to his craft, and is an outstanding citizen. Simple, ain't it? Excellent post. People seem to think that Gibbs FEATURED the TE, but he didn't. Remember who we had there--Didier, Warren, Orr, Middleton. They were used to compliment the passing game. That being said, I still would not be opposed to taking Winslow because he may be one of the few players who could help us right away--you don't see players with his potential come along very often. Gibbs is innovative enough to use him wisely. Of course, you can make any of these same arguments for Taylor, so I think we'll be fine wither way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freakofthesouth Posted January 14, 2004 Share Posted January 14, 2004 Great point Bulldog...errr....that post you had awhile ago... Anyway, to reiterate, the free agent market w/ dictate our draft behavior. Which leads me to this conclusion: Given the emphasis/necessity for two extremely key positions- RB and DE, I believe these positions will necessitate experience. Thus, these will be filled through free agency. Accordingly, some other needs may be met through the draft, such as OL/DL depth, and TE depth- which then leads me to believe that KW Jr. might very well be our pick. Because our TE core is sorely lacking. I feel like our secondary situation is a lot more settled than our TE situation. That could be our major issue to address in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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