The Brexit Thread

[FanboyOf91]

 

[visionary]

 

[FanboyOf91]

 

[visionary]

 

[FanboyOf91]

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

[visionary]

 

[FanboyOf91]

[DogofWar1]

This entire page of posts is depressing on multiple fronts.

 

It's frustrating that honestly the best solution to the populist-protectionist-Putinist authoritarian streak that has engulfed the west is probably a short term stint of intellectual-elitist-NATOist authoritarianism; that is, UK PM comes out, tells everyone Brexit is off, the UK is staying in the EU and that's that.

 

Ideally such solutions would not even need to be comtemplated, but when you have things like the UK's entire agricultural industry on the line, drastic actions can need to be taken.  These kinds of populist waves tend to show up once a generation, as the previously most powerful generation passes the torch (unwillingly) to younger groups, and tends to fade thereafter (see: Perot's following from '92 to '96, dropped 10% of the PV).  Similarly this populist wave will likely die down again, but the damage needs to be contained, lest the next generation have to spend a couple decades undoing the mistakes of the past.

 

Of course, there's also the problem that May probably doesn't want to call Brexit off either.

[No Excuses]

I don't think there is a coming back from this for the UK. May is being wishy washy but this interview is probably the strongest indication we have that she is planning on taking them out of the single market.

 

 

 

I think she realizes what a ****ty hand she has been dealt but has no way out and has to go through with it.

 

Quote

 

Last week Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK’s ambassador to the EU, quit his post urging his fellow British civil servants in Brussels to assert their independence by challenging “ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking”.

 

He warned Mrs May it was unlikely the EU would agree a new trading arrangement within the two years of the Article 50 exit talks and has told Downing Street that Britain could crash out of the EU without any deal at all.

 

Mrs May rejected Sir Ivan’s analysis: “Our thinking on this is not muddled at all,” she said. “Yes we have been taking our time. It was important for us to take our time and look at the issues.”

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/6d28715a-d59a-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

 

Ironically, the segment of their voters who voted 'Leave' will take the biggest hit from a shrinking economy that will come from this. Wonder what they'll do or say when the NHS budget is being cut instead of the mass investments that Nigel Farage promised them.

 

Quote

Langrish, who was closely involved in the prolonged Canadian talks, argues that Rogers’ analysis of the time-scale “seems realistic”, and says discussions he has had with UK government officials about Brexit suggest that there is little chance of minimising serious potential damage from the UK’s exit from the European Union.

 

Although he has no formal role in advising the UK, Langrish has been sounded out behind the scenes by those involved with handling Brexit in Whitehall. The impression he has been left with is that unless the British government shows more flexibility it will probably have to revert to World Trade Organisation rules and common tariffs, which could lop 4% off UK GDP.

 

Referring to his talks with UK officials, he writes: “While they have always been pleasant (and notably friendly towards Canada), my view is that they remain in campaign mode.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/07/uk-at-risk-of-brexit-trade-catastrophe?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=207439&subid=18713770&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

[DogofWar1]

4 hours ago, No Excuses said:

Ironically, the segment of their voters who voted 'Leave' will take the biggest hit from a shrinking economy that will come from this. Wonder what they'll do or say when the NHS budget is being cut instead of the mass investments that Nigel Farage promised them.

This whole situation seems oddly familiar... where have I seen this before...

[FanboyOf91]

Brexit: Making a stronger European Union outside of it!

 

 

Or not!

Edited January 9, 2017 by FanboyOf91

[FanboyOf91]

?

 

[FanboyOf91]

 

[No Excuses]

2 hours ago, FanboyOf91 said:

 

 

 

Well that's not good. But I think a better question if they forecast this long term or in the near future.

 

I have read from Brexit proponents that they know there will be short term pains but they expect to be better in the long run. 

 

The real challenge will be how the population copes with short term struggles, and how long it takes for them to restabilize and recover.

[FanboyOf91]

Quote

This week, a report from the center-left Fabian Society suggested that the Labour vote could fall in the 2020 general election to as low as 20 percent because in previous elections it has underperformed its midterm polling by an average of 8 points. This would leave the main opposition party with only 140 to 150 seats in Parliament. The report spoke “of insignificance, even of looming death.”

Many blame Labour’s radical left-wing leader, Jeremy Corbyn, for this decline. Since being elected in 2015, and then re-elected last summer after nearly 200 of the party’s members of Parliament staged an unsuccessful coup, Mr. Corbyn seems destined to lead Labour into oblivion. While his supporters point to an influx of new members, mainly middle-class, college-educated people in Southeast England, they ignore an exodus of support in “Middle England” and Labour’s industrial heartlands.

The Fabian Society also estimates that barely half of Labour’s voters at the last election in 2015 remain loyal. The likelihood of Labour’s coming annihilation is reflected in the leader’s favorability ratings among Britain’s politically engaged retirees: They put him a staggering 57 points behind the Conservative leader, Theresa May. This man will never be prime minister.

 

 

[FanboyOf91]

 

 

The pain is coming.

Edited January 12, 2017 by FanboyOf91

[FanboyOf91]

 

[FanboyOf91]

 

[FanboyOf91]

A trade war with the EU? Really?

 

[visionary]

 

[FanboyOf91]

[FanboyOf91]

Unintended consequences continue:

 

 

Oy!

[FanboyOf91]

UK inflation hit 1.6% in December.

[FanboyOf91]

@Visionary, look's like we're going to need a Kosovo/Balkans thread soon.