Son of Gadsden Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Yeah, but they have Frank Gore, who is already an above average RB. They also have a lot of high round draft picks on that team. They have Braylon Edwards and Crabtree who must be accounted for, we have no receivers comparable (other than Moss who is out). They also have 2 decent healthy tight ends (we did, but now Cooley is out). I've always been under the opinion that Alex Smith is actually very talented also. I wanted him if they didnt sign him. They have simply been in rebuild mode a lot longer than we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpyaks3 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I think a lot of people are discounting Alex Smith, he has shown that he can throw the ball when he needs to. The 3rd quarter of the Eagles game showed that, 9/9 for 179 and 2 TD's. Right now Harbaugh is happy winning games like this last game where the 49ers controlled the game and just sat on the lead, but that doesn't mean that if needed to Smith can't throw the ball. I think people have a skewed picture of him based on his rookie season and how historically bad it was. Since then he has been an average QB and this year he has been a very good QB. Over the last 16 games he has 21 TD's and 5 INT's and 3,000 yards. Those are hardly Trent Dilfer numbers. He also has 3 4th quarter comebacks on the road this year. I (and Vegas) think the 49ers have a good chance of winning at least one playoff game, we have already beaten Detroit and Cincinnati on the road this year. I think QB play is definitely a bigger factor in why the 49ers are 7-1 than many are giving credit for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsFTW Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I'm with everybody who thinks the 49ers won't go far in the playoffs because it doesn't make sense that a team like that would win in the playoffs based on running the ball and defense. Now i just started looking at actual numbers. Hmmm, not only the Bucs and Ravens won SB's in the past decade with average QB's, anybody who remembers the 2001-2004 Pats or the Steelers Super Bowl seasons would have noticed the same thing. 2001 Brady passed for 2800 yards 18tds 12ints with a running game that had 15tds and 1800 yards and the 6th ranked defense that had 49 takeaways. That team won more because of defense, turnover ratio, and the running game than the QB, like the 49ers now. 2003 Brady had 3600 yards 23tds 12ints but the offense was ranked 12th because the running game was slightly less effective with only 1600 yards and 9tds. Their defense was ranked #1 and had 52 takeaways. That Pats team won 15 straight after losing to the Redskins. This team won more because of the defense and their great turnover ratio than the QB and still had an average running game. The 2004 Steelers went 15-1 in Roethlisbergers rookie year and it wasn't because of his 2600 yards and 17TD's, they easily had the #1 defense and had 40 takeaways +2500 yards rushing and 16td's, then lost to the Pats in the AFCCG. The Pats had the #2 defense, and 2100 yards rushing 15td's in 04 to go wth Brady's 3600 yards and 28/14 td/ints. So even then, both of the best teams in the league relied on defense and a great running game. Brady later became known as a top 2-3 QB and hasn't gotten back to the SB. 2005 Steelers? Same thing. over 2200 yards rushing and 21 rushing td's, Roethlisberger had 2200 yards passing and 17td's again. #3 defense and 43 takeaways didn't hurt either. We all remember Roethlisbergers performance in the SB against the Seahawks right? 9/21 and 2 picks. Good thing they ran for 60 more yards than he passed for and had 2 rushing td's. How many Franchise QB's win Super Bowls with 0td passes 2 ints, 120 yards passing and 9/21? 2006 Grossman got to the Super Bowl and I don't even need to go over his stats because we all know they were bad. 2007 Eli Manning got hot in the playoffs and rode a great defensive performance to win a SB after putting up almost the exact same numbers Grossman did the previous year 23tds 20ints 3300 yards, so he had 100 more yards passing than Grossman with the same td's and ints. 2008 Kurt Warner has a All Pro level year and still manages to go 9-7 despite having the 28th ranked defense and a rushing attack that barely got over 1100 yards total, but gets into the SB and loses. Roethlisberger on the other hand gets in with the 20th ranked offense and the #1 defense. He throws 17tds and 15ints on the year 3300 yards also. 2009, yeah both teams had a franchise qb who did make all the difference but would they have beaten an elite defense with decent qb play to get there? The Colts faced 2 top defenses Balt/Jets, but they were at home and Flacco/Sanchez were in their 2nd and 1st years in the league. Brees got to face Arizona with no defense and Minn with Favre, a known choke artist but also a franchise QB type, both were home games for NO. 2010 Packers had Rodgers, Steelers once again won with Roethlisberger and a #1 defense and great running game, but were 3-1 with Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon (who is that?) to start the year. Roethlisberger seems to be the AFC's version of McNabb. Way too much credit when they consistently have a top 3 defense and above average running game and they still win with scrub QB's when he's out. So what looks to be the common factor IS NOT Pro Bowl level QB play but a top 5 defense and a QB who doesn't kill the teams chance to win (well except for Roethlisberger) so even a guy like Hasslebeck or Flacco or early Brady and even scrubs like Sanchez/Eli in 07 have a shot to win championships if they are helped by a great defense and a good running game. Only Brees, Peyton Manning, and Rodgers have led teams to SB wins lately without both of those and even then Brees had a 2100 yards rushing with 21 tds and a defense that had 45 takeaways, Rodgers had a defense ranked #2 last year but no running game. Manning is the one who did it with less, in 06 he had the 23rd ranked defense and they only had 25 takeaways and their running game only put up 1700 yards, but then they faced Grossman, the worst SB QB since Dilfer or maybe even as far back as Woodley. Alex Smith is on pace for 3000 yards 20tds and 4ints. Actually BETTER numbers overall than Roethlisberger in any of his SB seasons, and better than Brady in 2 of his 3, better than Eli Mannings SB year, better than Grossmans, better than Delhomme, similar to Brad Johnson and Hasslebecks SB years. Oh and SF has the #1 defense, something that a large % of the past decades SB teams did as well. If San Fran can keep it up and get better along the way they could be the team like the Patriots or Ravens to come out of nowhere and beat the favorites. I really don't expect that to happen though but stranger things have in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SKINS'n'Spurs Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Nice Job on the research. I think they have a good shot at making a run in the playoffs. Their 2nd half of the schedule is almost a joke. @ home to PIT and away to BAL are the only ones I see them losing and if they can pull off just 1 win there They will be favorites for making it to the NFC Championship game. You can never count out a team like SF this year. And as a Redskins fan I can only hope we can get to this level (especially this record at the half way mark); if the Skins did, I can guarantee half this board would be yelling for the right to pre-order replica SB rings. HAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 I don't disagree with that history lesson but I also don't think the 49ers defense is nearly on the level of the Ravens or Steelers from their superbowl years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsFTW Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I don't disagree with that history lesson but I also don't think the 49ers defense is nearly on the level of the Ravens or Steelers from their superbowl years. No I don't think they are the greatest defense in past decade either but they are giving up about the same 14-15 points that the Steelers did in all of their SB years. They are also on pace for 46 takeaways which is more than the Steelers had in any of their SB years. No team is likely to do what Baltimore did which is about the same as a team winning the SB with somebody like John Beck at QB. I wouldn't be too surprised if they do what the Steelers did though, and with a little help from the refs, like the Steelers they might even beat teams like NO, and GB in the playoffs and get to the SB. The biggest problem with the 49ers is Frank Gore gets injured and thats going to blow the whole thing up in the end if he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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