bigtymeskin2126 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I was looking at sportsbook.com's Games of the Year lines, and they must not think we are going to be THAT bad according to these: Redskins +3 vs NYG (Week 1) Redskins +7 at Dallas (Week 3) Redskins +6 vs Philly (Week 5) Redskins +2.5 vs Dallas (Week 10) Redskins +4 vs NYJ (Week 12) Now I realize it's early and these will change as the season progresses. Also the fact that we are underdogs in every game, but it is not by many points. It would seem that the general public will be betting on whoever we are playing this season, so this is somewhat encouraging for the bookies to be keeping us within a touchdown against these hyped and highly wagered on teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rpredskins Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 i dont know much about this stuff but i do know that +7 is a pretty huge margin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtymeskin2126 Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Not really for a road game. Most people look at that as "only" a touchdown and bet the home favorite against a "down" team, gladly giving up a touchdown. You can't read into lines too much or Vegas will get you every time, but when you can predict what the general public is going to bet on it gives you a little hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The same site has the over-under on number of wins for the Skins at 6.....only five teams are predicted worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtymeskin2126 Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 The same site has the over-under on number of wins for the Skins at 6.....only five teams are predicted worse. That's not a bad line considering that was our record last year. It's basically saying do the bettors think the Skins have gotten better or worse. Guarantee 85% thinks we have gotten worse based on our QB situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2STaylor1 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 those are all mostly division games.... me personally i have 2 rules for sports betting, 1. never touch division games, and 2. never bet for or against your own team...... other factors you want to weigh is that in the NFL the home team usually gives 3 points in the spread, so if u take 2 evenly matched teams, the home team would usually be at -3. also you gotta factor in that these guys want you to bet so they will adjust the lines in a way to ensure they make their money..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsTribeVA Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I've been betting on football for about three years now (and have ended up with at least 50% more than I started with every year...too bad I don't have much to bet haha) and I can tell you that those are pretty average spreads, somewhat small but nothing crazy. edit: although I would say I usually bet on bigger spreads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtymeskin2126 Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 those are all mostly division games.... me personally i have 2 rules for sports betting, 1. never touch division games, and 2. never bet for or against your own team...... other factors you want to weigh is that in the NFL the home team usually gives 3 points in the spread, so if u take 2 evenly matched teams, the home team would usually be at -3. also you gotta factor in that these guys want you to bet so they will adjust the lines in a way to ensure they make their money..... I follow those same rules lol.. Skins games are all the more frustrating when they are losing AND not covering the spread. I'm not saying these are "odd" lines, but the fact we're only giving 4 to the Jets really surprised me. The division games, not so much, especially vs Dallas, but they are still respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Those are just the early bird lines. The numbers will change based on performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcoles11 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I'm seeing something completely different than you are. Getting points at home? Thats no bueno, being that the general rule of thumb is a 3 point edge for the home team. Plus, a line of 7 or around 7 is pretty high for the NFL. The mistake people make is thinking that the spread is what Vegas thinks the difference in score is going to be, that is absolutely false. For instance, Dallas is +7 at home in week 3 vs the Skins, that is not Vegas saying the Cowboys are going to win by 7 points. That is Vegas setting a line where they think they can get an equal number of people betting on each side, half the people betting on the Skins to lose by less than 7 and half the people betting on Dallas to win by more than 7. Hell the guys in Vegas might think Dallas is going to win that game by 14 points, but they would never set the line at 14 points because they would get way too many bets on the Redskins to cover, which would put Vegas in a situation where they were gambling against the public, which is not what they want. Vegas is not in the gambling business, they don't want to have a dog in the fight, thats why the line moves up and down, they want it to have equal betting on each side, they make their money on the fees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B55Green Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Not bad. As you said they will change, but hell, I never thought we'd be getting those types of numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Obviously things will change but the sports betting world doesn't look highly on us. At the very best, we are the worst team in our division. I'd bet the Skins on all of those games, they'll cover at least 3 of the 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtymeskin2126 Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 I'm seeing something completely different than you are. Getting points at home? Thats no bueno, being that the general rule of thumb is a 3 point edge for the home team. Plus, a line of 7 or around 7 is pretty high for the NFL.The mistake people make is thinking that the spread is what Vegas thinks the difference in score is going to be, that is absolutely false. For instance, Dallas is +7 at home in week 3 vs the Skins, that is not Vegas saying the Cowboys are going to win by 7 points. That is Vegas setting a line where they think they can get an equal number of people betting on each side, half the people betting on the Skins to lose by less than 7 and half the people betting on Dallas to win by more than 7. Hell the guys in Vegas might think Dallas is going to win that game by 14 points, but they would never set the line at 14 points because they would get way too many bets on the Redskins to cover, which would put Vegas in a situation where they were gambling against the public, which is not what they want. Vegas is not in the gambling business, they don't want to have a dog in the fight, thats why the line moves up and down, they want it to have equal betting on each side, they make their money on the fees. I agree that points at home is not a good sign for your team's performance/staff, but usually that is a good line to bet. This leads me to think that Vegas thinks we will at least be competitive in most of these games, and that's all we can ask after a couple abysmal seasons. You keep it close, you give yourself a chance to win ball games. I do understand how the lines are made, but they rarely end up 50/50, and Vegas rarely ends up on the negative end of the stick. And I have a feeling there's not gonna be a lot of Skins bettors this season unless we come out of the gates firing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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