Bad Decision by Zorn Led to Lions First TD

[21forlyfe]

Coulda shoulda woulda

Like it's been said, hindsight's 20/20, hypothetical situations are easy to map out after the fact.

It was a good move, our D isnt playing up to what it should be.

Your answering your own question ...The D isnt playing good?....HELLO why the hell would you think that they would stop the Lions in a crucial situation?:doh: That dosent makes sense...I know my D is playing bad...they just drove 80 yrds down the feild with ease...you stop them..they have to attempt a 50YARDER:doh: or give them the ball again...they get the first or worst score.

[CaliforniaSkin]

One way to look at this decision is to think about it statistically and look at expected points. This takes hindsight out of the equation.

It was actually the 32 and would have been a 49 yard field goal. In his career Jason Hanson has converted on better than 75% of his 40-49 yarders. He's gotten well over 50% of his 50+ yarders. Over the last 6 years he's actually converted 76% of his 50+ field goals and over 80% of his 40-49 yarders. This was at home for him, in a dome. Odds of Detroit getting a 3 points are probably at least 75% so statistically the expected points of not taking the penalty are about -2.25 (as in not taking the penalty can be expected to produce 2.25 points for the Lions)

On the other hand, teams convert on 3&13 a little under 20% of the time in the NFL. Most of the time that would result in 0 points. So let's say that if they don't convert they get the 7 yards or so they need to try to kick half the time (which is probably high) That lowers their accuracy of course as well. So let's say that 1/2 the time they theoretically don't convert they're too far away to kick and the other half of the time they have about a 66% chance of making the kick. (I think this is being very generous to the Rams but it still proves my point).

Even if they convert, they still need another 30 yards for a TD and, on most drives, the Lions don't score a TD. Detroit's TD redzone TD percentage last year was 40%, their redzone FG percentage last year was 43%. Of course even when they converted they were not yet in the redzone so the numbers would actually be lower but, let's use those numbers anyway. Again this down

So their expected points are .4 * 0 + .4 (2) + .2 ((.40*7)+(.43*3) = 0 + 0.8 + 0.82 = 1.62 expected points if we take the penalty. Again this all of these numbers are on the high side of expected points for us taking the penalty.

So by the numbers declining the penalty was worth -2.25 points for the 'Skins, accepting the penalty was, at worst about 33% better in terms of expected points. Statistically, it's an absolute no brainer to take the penalty.

Of course that was assuming that the Lions would convert with the same frequency as the average team (as opposed to one of the lowest 4 in the league as they were last year and in the first two games this year). It was also assuming that our defense was average, not better than average as we all expected it to be.

Also this was on the Lion's 2nd drive of the game - we didn't know that they were playing horribly yet.

[SkinzNIrishFan]

I think the Lions would have gone for it anyway on 4th and 3 at our 33 and made it....they had nothing to lose today......I have zero confidence in this defense

[Destino]

The planet when they come right down and score...Dumbass:chair:

You're right... the headcoach should have assumed that his defense would have given up 7 points if he pushed the LIONS out of field goal range. If only I could be smart like you.

[Skinsinparadise]

In one of the articles that has been posted about the game, Stafford said he was very surprised that Zorn made that move

[Peregrine]

That was a bone headed decision. You MAKE a kicker attempt a 50 yd FG rather than giving a team another down to work with, considering the Lions had rolled our defense on third downs.

You cannot deny that that 4 points, possibly 7, cost this team the game. You can try and say Zorn didn't know, but he should KNOW his team better, and the other team, and how the game had gone, but you cant deny that it cost points, as did his earlier 4th down decision.

[Mordac]

Well, I would have declined the penalty.

I have a theory. I think Zorn assumed Stafford would throw a pass to pick up about 4 yards on 3rd and 13, and then it would have been a 55-yard FG. Coach Zorn should have remembered that just because that's what his QB does on 3rd and 13 doesn't mean all QBs do that.

[Destino]

In one of the articles that has been posted about the game, Stafford said he was very surprised that Zorn made that move

Love how Stafford is even ****y now. He was surprised that Zorn gave the great Stafford another chance?! Give me a damn break. No one including the coach knew Blache was going to leave his balls in DC.

PRESSURE ON LONG PASSING DOWNS AND FORCE A HOT ROUTE!!!! Blache's defense couldn't stop UVA.

[hardatit]

Lions drove 99 yards on that drive, let's face it the skins defense sucks just like the offense

[JCSMCPCCrskins]

Zorn knows this defense has had trouble stopping teams on 3rd and 10+ and he still felt the need to try and make them stop the lions again after they already held them to 4th down.

He knew the defense was not getting it done on 3rd and longs lately, and yet he put it right back in there hands. What a stupid risk, we are talking about 3 points, and not even 3 guranteed points. You are that worried about 3 points that you risk making it 7?

That was not even just 7, that coupled with the 4th and 1 sucked the life out of any emotion this team brought to the game. I now go into games wondering how Zorn will surpise me next with some stupid decision. The defense might have sucked bad this game, but they still only held the lions to 19 points. You cannot expect to win many games scoring under 20 points. More than 20 is something this offense has yet to do this season...

[Elite81881]

I was a Campbell supporter, but now, Jesus, not so much!!!