Vineyardsaker.blogspot :The situation in Iran

[whogotit?]

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2009/ ... -iran.html

As the situation regarding the Presidential elections escalate in Iran, there is a little glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel in the form of Wilayatul Faqee, Ayatollah Ali Khamenai. The last few days has seen mass protests, riots on the streets of Tehran and other major cities, victory rally by the supporters of Ahmedinijad and rumours along with accusations in the Media sources across the World. The situation on the ground has never been correctly presented to the world and bias has ruled in reporting and manipulating to ensure a certain message is delievered regarding Iran.

Anyone who has followed these elections closely would accept the result without questioning or believing in the conspiracies of fraud and stolen elections, simply because of the conduct of Ahmedinijad in his campaign compared to that of Mousavi. World Media laid the claims of mishandling the economy at Ahmedinijad and in the process blinded themselves to the other policies of the President to the people of the nation. Ahmedinijad has improved the standard of living for the lower and working class people by the redistribution through the wealth programme. An example of such would be the case of the Association of Women Weavers who boast a figure of 2.7 million women working for them. As they were unable to afford insurance for such a sizeable association Ahmedinijad stepped in to provide the insurance from the Government in order to ensure that the Association continues to exist. In return, he has secured majority of votes from those 2.7 million women.

*Click Link for Rest of Story*

[Kilmer17]

A month from now, everything in Iran will be exactly like it was 6 months ago. And there will be people telling the world just to wai, that their is an internal uprising just about to happen.

[whogotit?]

A month from now, everything in Iran will be exactly like it was 6 months ago. And there will be people telling the world just to wai, that their is an internal uprising just about to happen.

But, the thing is this is not an internal uprising this is coming from the outside in my opinion...

[SkinsHokieFan]

But, the thing is this is not an internal uprising this is coming from the outside in my opinion...

The blog you just posted is over a week old. (JUNE 15th, 2009)

The tide has turned against the Ayatollah because of his stupid sermon last Friday

Had Khameni not taken such a hard line stance, had the poor girl not been killed, you may be right

And who actually had the assets to execute such an uprising in Iran?

Our CIA has no good cover to have been in there. At this point I am sure the CIA is there, but prior to the election, no sir

[ixcuincle]

I would say the tide is turning for the Ayatollah after his sermon last Friday. After that sermon, which basically was a wink at the militiamen and the Revolutionary guard to amp up the crackdown, the numbers for protesters have steadily gone down. The guards are out in full force right now, and rebellion is being quashed, which is a shame.

I read in the newspaper today that Russia legitimizes the election which is huge

[twa]

many in Iran over this week will be anxiously awaiting to see what he decrees for they know that his word will be final.

A perfect example of why there is a uprising

You cannot serve crap and tell the people it's chocolates...Iranian's ain't stupid.

[whogotit?]

The blog you just posted is over a week old. (JUNE 15th, 2009)

The tide has turned against the Ayatollah because of his stupid sermon last Friday

Had Khameni not taken such a hard line stance, had the poor girl not been killed, you may be right

And who actually had the assets to execute such an uprising in Iran?

Our CIA has no good cover to have been in there. At this point I am sure the CIA is there, but prior to the election, no sir

I know the blog is old but it's still correct....

Please the people that are protesting or complaining are a small group....

You seem to forget that the people "uprising" are the middle upperclass and upperclass of Iran...the poor are satisfied with the results..

Please our CIA has been there for years..People have suspected Rafsanjani to be an agent of the west for years...and he was the major backer of Mousavi...quite strange... let me show you this pic of how western media lies to discredit the election and their gov't

This just shows you how the media is trying to paint an unrealistic portrait...

[TimmySmith]

And who actually had the assets to execute such an uprising in Iran?

Our CIA has no good cover to have been in there. At this point I am sure the CIA is there, but prior to the election, no sir

How about Iranian ex-pats using modern technology?

The blog has a responsible take on the election. Ahmedinijad is a popular president to the majority. But his election, whether it be by 30% or 1% was simply not palatable to millions of Iranians around the world. The internet has given them a say.

[SkinsHokieFan]

I

Please our CIA has been there for years..People have suspected Rafsanjani to be an agent of the west for years...and he was the major backer of Mousavi...quite strange... let me show you this pic of how western media lies to discredit the election and their gov't

This just shows you how the media is trying to paint an unrealistic portrait...

"Suspect" is one thing. But here is the thing with the CIA

They need COVER to get into places like Iran

We have no embassy or diplomatic relations. So there goes official cover

We do no business with Iran. So there goes unofficial cover

Now, I do certainly hope our CIA is on the ground there now. Which I have no doubt that they are. 1953 happened because Kermit Roosevelt refused to go home after his first failed coup attempt.

Do I think the protestors are getting crushed right now? Yup. And does that change things in Iran going forward? Yes, Khameni has been undermined, very badly now.

It is a changed country

[whogotit?]

I would say the tide is turning for the Ayatollah after his sermon last Friday. After that sermon, which basically was a wink at the militiamen and the Revolutionary guard to amp up the crackdown, the numbers for protesters have steadily gone down. The guards are out in full force right now, and rebellion is being quashed, which is a shame.

I read in the newspaper today that Russia legitimizes the election which is huge

how can they say it was not legitimate????? Where is the proof? Mousavi tried to claim victory 2 hours after the polling was over...this is a total de ja vu of what happened in Venezuela.....Ahmedinijad is who the PEOPLE want...whats even more funny is that the former SHah of Iran son (yeah the dictator that we just loved) is in America and is being prepped by the US gov't to take power...

[SkinsHokieFan]

how can they say it was not legitimate????? Where is the proof? Mousavi tried to claim victory 2 hours after the polling was over...this is a total de ja vu of what happened in Venezuela.....Ahmedinijad is who the PEOPLE want...whats even more funny is that the former SHah of Iran son (yeah the dictator that we just loved) is in America and is being prepped by the US gov't to take power...

lol.

I don't think the US has any interest in putting the Son of the Shah back in power

The guy makes on speech and suddenly America is prepping to put him back in power? Come on man, don't be absurd

[whogotit?]

"Suspect" is one thing. But here is the thing with the CIA

They need COVER to get into places like Iran

We have no embassy or diplomatic relations. So there goes official cover

We do no business with Iran. So there goes unofficial cover

Now, I do certainly hope our CIA is on the ground there now. Which I have no doubt that they are. 1953 happened because Kermit Roosevelt refused to go home after his first failed coup attempt.

Do I think the protestors are getting crushed right now? Yup. And does that change things in Iran going forward? Yes, Khameni has been undermined, very badly now.

It is a changed country

Please......

[SkinsHokieFan]

Please......

So you got nothing.

Look Iggles fan. If you are going to debate in here, A) Post a credible timely blog and replying with "please" will get you no points whatsoever.

You can go back to your board and celebrate your empty trophy case if you want to discuss stuff here in that manner

[SkinsHokieFan]

From the Economist

http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13856232

Demanding to be counted

Jun 18th 2009 | TEHRAN

From The Economist print edition

An apparently rigged election is shaking the fragile pillars on which the Iranian republic rests

Reuters

IRANIANS voted in record numbers on June 12th. Analysts had predicted a close race; hope of change was in the air. So for many, the official result—with a claimed margin of 63% for the incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—was a preposterous sham. At first, youths took to the streets in Tehran and elsewhere, lighting fires and smashing shop windows. When these were beaten back, opposition grew. Braving an official ban and rumours of police gunfire, well over a million Iranians took to the streets of Tehran on June 15th, dwarfing a televised victory rally staged the day before by Mr Ahmadinejad. A fractured, demoralised opposition suddenly appeared united, empowered and focused on Mir Hosein Mousavi, the soft-spoken former prime minister who, by the official count, had polled only 13m votes to Mr Ahmadinejad’s 24m. Their protests have continued ever since.

In the three decades since the Islamic Republic was founded, Iran has not been rocked like this. Tehran is engulfed in huge marches every day. Women in chadors, bus conductors, shopkeepers and even turbanned clerics have joined the joyous show of people power. Nationwide strikes are planned.

But the government has struck back. Its men have beaten up protesters and fired on the crowd. Reformers, intellectuals, civil leaders and human-rights activists have been arrested or have gone missing, not only in Tehran but also in Tabriz, in the north-west, and across the country. Since the Ministry of Guidance has expelled foreign journalists, the course of the repression will be hard to follow. And the outcome of this clash is impossible to predict.

The unrest is not, or not yet, about the basic underpinnings of the system created by Iran’s 1979 revolution. Protesters have deliberately dressed modestly, enlisting religious symbolism to appeal to the notions of injustice and redemption that lie at the heart of Shia Islam. It is about feelings, shared on both sides of the divide, that the Islamic Republic has gone astray. The split reflects not only a polarised electorate, but also a deep and growing schism within the ruling establishment.

Iran’s unique system rests uncomfortably on two pillars, one democratic, the other theocratic. The elected parliament and presidency have plenty of power over state spending and investment, but little over national security, including Iran’s controversial nuclear programme. This falls under the aegis of the theocratic branch, embodied by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Mr Khamenei serves not only as a moral authority but also as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and controls a range of powerful bodies intended to enforce the “Islamic” nature of the system, including courts, state broadcasting and the Guardian Council, an appointed committee charged, among other things, with vetting candidates and monitoring elections.

Today’s upheaval undermines both these pillars at once. Most Iranians believe electoral fraud has occurred on a massive scale. The implications are far-reaching. Extracting the state from the cloud of suspicion that has fallen over it will be tricky. A clampdown by the army and police, with Mr Ahmadinejad brazening out his critics, would wreck the Islamic Republic’s democratic pretensions for good. But this turmoil has not just undermined Iranian democracy; it has also damaged the prestige of the supreme leader.

Most of Iran’s fast-expanding but hard-pressed urban middle class dislike Mr Ahmadinejad. They suspect that his re-election was intended to stamp legitimacy on the grip of hardliners who consider the “Islamic” bit of the revolution more essential than its “republican” part. Among his opponents are pious conservatives, including some prominent senior clerics, as well as liberals who would, if given a real choice, probably opt for a secular state. But even in south Tehran, a working-class area assumed to be for Mr Ahmadinejad, pro-Mousavi voters thronged the streets: a middle-aged woman in tears lest the election was stolen, and a young man who used the only English word at his command to explain his choice: “Freedom”.

Their leaders are figures who, like Mr Mousavi, gained prominence in the early years of the revolution, but have learned pragmatism since. Many are linked to the reformist movement that briefly thrived during the presidency, from 1997 to 2005, of Muhammad Khatami, a smiling cleric whose enormous popularity failed to make headway against entrenched and occasionally vicious conservative opposition. Several of those arrested this week were Mr Khatami’s close advisers.

Men like these see Mr Ahmadinejad’s administration as dangerously incompetent in its domestic policy and recklessly confrontational in foreign affairs. Most ominous to some have been his purges not just of reformists, but also of the wider revolution-era nomenklatura from ministries, local government and universities in favour of people seen as narrow-minded, bullying provincials. This, together with the parcelling-out of rich government contracts to ideological allies such as the Revolutionary Guard, has raised fears that the state is drifting towards a Venezuelan model of demagogic cronyism.

What conservatives dread

The president’s supporters also suspect a coup, but one along the lines of eastern Europe’s colour revolutions. The danger, as they see it, is that Iran’s pure Islamic identity will be diluted by a wave of Western materialism, encouraged by a corrupt elite whose revolutionary ardour has faded. Supporters of Mr Ahmadinejad’s millenarian populism include commanders of the Revolutionary Guard and its larger volunteer auxiliary, the baseej, as well as allies the president has packed into the regular army, police and intelligence services. They are backed by extreme conservatives among the Shia clergy, some of whom say a pious elect, not the people, should rule. Other support comes from the (shrinking) peasantry, pensioners, war veterans and others who have benefited from the spendthrift but scattershot generosity of Mr Ahmadinejad’s government.

Getty Images

Scornful Ahmadinejad

The supreme leader, too, who should theoretically remain above the political fray, has frequently signalled tacit support for Mr Ahmadinejad. This means that he cannot easily dissociate himself, as he has in the past, from whatever electoral malpractice there may have been. Not only did he hastily bless the election result, pre-empting its validation by the Guardian Council as the rules require. He also, before the election, described the kind of candidate voters should choose in terms that made it clear he was referring to the president. Moreover, one of Mr Khamenei’s sons is believed to have not only quietly sponsored the president’s rise from provincial obscurity, but also orchestrated his two presidential campaigns.

The first of these, in 2005, also produced credible charges of fraud, albeit on a smaller scale. Mehdi Karroubi, a reformist cleric who ran in the recent election, was narrowly beaten to second place in a first round of voting because of a suspiciously heavy tilt to Mr Ahmadinejad in outlying provinces. This propelled Mr Ahmadinejad, then a political novice, into a surprise second-round triumph against Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president. Mr Karroubi’s protests at the time were quashed by the supreme leader.

This new result looks even more suspect. Before the vote, the president’s rivals had voiced worries about possible fraud. A news report claimed that whistleblowers inside the Ministry of Interior, which organises vote-counting, had warned that it planned to tamper with the outcome. Mr Rafsanjani, still a power-broker as head of two bodies that are meant to adjudicate between branches of government, took the unusual step of firing off a long, heated public letter to Mr Khamenei, declaring that unless the supreme leader acted to ensure a fair vote, trouble would ensue.

Conservatives at the heart of Iran’s “deep state”—that coterie of officials and clerics who are assumed really to be running things—were known to have been disturbed by the sudden snowballing of support for Mr Mousavi. He had at first been seen as a conveniently weak replacement for Mr Khatami, who withdrew from the race in his favour. Particularly upsetting to them was the disregard for public decorum displayed by the young women (“whores of the West” in one baseej newspaper) who joined Mr Mousavi’s rallies. The rigged count itself appeared to many to be a direct response to these fears.

Early on Mr Mousavi, who, supporters say, was tipped off by allies within the Ministry of Interior, proclaimed himself the likely winner. But soon afterwards rolling official results, announced with unusual speed, showed him far behind with only a third of the vote. Suspicions rose further as observers were barred from some counting centres, and the campaign headquarters of Mr Ahmadinejad’s opponents found its telephone lines cut, along with the nationwide text-messaging services they had intended to use to keep an independent tally of the vote. Any remaining doubts vanished on June 14th, as police sealed the headquarters of Messrs Karroubi and Mousavi, placed them under house arrest and detained dozens of their most prominent supporters.

Mr Ahmadinejad certainly has millions of enthusiasts, particularly in areas beyond the scrutiny of Tehran’s chattering classes. Yet the official result still seemed incredible. Mr Karroubi, for instance, had won more than 5m votes in 2005, but now trailed in last place with a mere 330,000 out of the 39m cast, fewer than the number of spoiled or blank ballots. All three challengers were shown to have lost even in their own home regions, despite strong local loyalties and the expectation of state largesse from having sons in high places.

What could explain such an apparently blatant attempt to rig an election that, even had Mr Mousavi won, would have represented little threat to either the republic or its supreme leader? The most likely theory is of a plan gone awry. Given the line-up of institutions either controlled by Mr Khamenei or systematically packed with Mr Ahmadinejad’s supporters, and given that no incumbent president in Iran has yet lost to a challenger, it may have seemed safe to bet on the president’s victory. This would have brought the added satisfaction to many dyed-in-the-wool conservatives, possibly including Mr Khamenei, of weakening the position of Mr Rafsanjani, who has mounted a rearguard struggle to contain the president’s influence.

Reuters

Cautious Khamenei

Just to make sure, strong potential challengers, such as Mr Khatami and the popular, conservative mayor of Tehran, Muhammad Qalibaf, were “persuaded” by the supreme leader not to run. Compared with the ebullient, politically canny Mr Ahmadinejad, the three remaining challengers appeared drab and uninspiring. Mr Ahmadinejad felt so confident that he agreed to an unprecedented series of televised debates. His superior political skills gave him the advantage on screen, but his scorn for his rivals helped stir up a surge of sympathy for Mr Mousavi, dispelling the political apathy that normally pervades Iran’s middle class.

Conservatives suddenly found themselves facing a torrent of youthful activists, their passion for change magnified by the spontaneous but effective use of simple symbols and modern communications. Stunned by this turn of events, Iran’s deep state appears to have opted for a last-minute, and therefore clumsy, attempt to alter the outcome in the president’s favour.

Democracy in the balance

What will happen now? None of the possible outcomes looks good. Mr Mousavi, who, along with Mr Karroubi, has shown unexpected steel in the face of pressure, insists that the only solution is to cancel the election results altogether. “Otherwise,” he says, “nothing will remain of people’s trust in the government and ruling system.” Yet, in deference to the Supreme Leader, the three disappointed challengers have also gone through the motions of a formal protest to the Guardian Council.

This 12-man body, chaired by an ultra-conservative who personally endorsed Mr Ahmadinejad, officially has ten days to investigate the charges pressed by Messrs Mousavi and Karroubi. Faced with the pressure of street protests, it has already, grudgingly, agreed to at least a partial recount of votes. Mr Khamenei has sought to bolster his position by issuing his own call for an inquiry. Yet many reformists fear that the intention is to play for time while passions burn out, and then declare some slight irregularities that do not affect the outcome. As a result, they appear grimly determined to carry on the protests.

Reuters

Waiting for change

The more immediate concern is that Mr Ahmadinejad may impose a form of martial law. There are already ominous signs of such a move, as arrests of prominent reformists widen, censorship and controls on communication tighten, and feared vigilantes of the baseej lash out with impunity. Given the machinery of oppression at his disposal, Mr Ahmadinejad could probably maintain power by force, though no one can say for sure where the army stands. But force would devastate the image of a state that he exalts as the pinnacle of good governance. Moreover, Mr Ahmadinejad would need the support of the far more cautious, consensus-seeking supreme leader, and this is far from assured.

Mr Khamenei faces a deep quandary. A resolution to the crisis that fails to assuage the huge and growing mass of Mr Mousavi’s supporters would do permanent damage to his regime’s democratic pillar. Few Iranians would ever again deign to volunteer for the empty pageantry of voting. Yet giving in completely to their demands would expose his own weakness and fallibility. Underlying all this is the bitter irony that in its paranoia to avoid a “velvet revolution”, Iran’s deep state has itself engineered precisely the conditions that might make such a revolution happen.

[whogotit?]

lol.

I don't think the US has any interest in putting the Son of the Shah back in power

The guy makes on speech and suddenly America is prepping to put him back in power? Come on man, don't be absurd

How is it absurd? We seen it in Iraq with Chalabi who was wanted for stealing millions in Iraq but, was Americas boy.

[SkinsHokieFan]

How is it absurd? We seen it in Iraq with Chalabi who was wanted for stealing millions in Iraq but, was Americas boy.

A) There is another administration in office

The son of the Shah. This guy has no access to power in America

Here is another legit sourced article for you

Source: Press TV

Guardian Council: Over 100% voted in 50 cities

Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:38:30 GMT

Iran's Guardian Council has admitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of those eligible to cast ballot in those areas.

The council's Spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, who was speaking on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2 on Sunday, made the remarks in response to complaints filed by Mohsen Rezaei -- a defeated candidate in the June 12 Presidential election.

"Statistics provided by Mohsen Rezaei in which he claims more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 170 cities are not accurate -- the incident has happened in only 50 cities," Kadkhodaei said.

The spokesman, however, said that although the vote tally affected by such an irregularity is over 3 million, "it has yet to be determined whether the amount is decisive in the election results," reported Khabaronline.

Read more: http://www.presstv.ir/detail/98711.htm?sectionid=351020...

[whogotit?]

So you got nothing.

Look Iggles fan. If you are going to debate in here, A) Post a credible timely blog and replying with "please" will get you no points whatsoever.

You can go back to your board and celebrate your empty trophy case if you want to discuss stuff here in that manner

your not saying ish..it was laughable to act as if we need an embassy in there to have agents on the ground....

[SkinsHokieFan]

your not saying ish..it was laughable to act as if we need an embassy in there to have agents on the ground....

Generally we do need an embassy to have ops officers on the ground to make a difference

Can we get maybe half a dozen in under some NOC? Possibly

Enough to make a difference and shake the regime? Not at all.

If we had that ability, the 1999 and 2003 demonstrations would have picked up much more momentum then they did

[whogotit?]

From the Economist

http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13856232

funny, isn't that about how much he won by in the last election...believe it or not Ahmedinijad is popular amongst the middle class, poor and the rural population...and any ways american polling companies PREDICTED he would win 2-1

[zoony]

From Iranians I've talked to, the Shah was far worse than the current regime. At least in terms of human rights violations, terror, etc.

....

[SkinsHokieFan]

funny, isn't that about how much he won by in the last election...believe it or not Ahmedinijad is popular amongst the middle class, poor and the rural population...and any ways american polling companies PREDICTED he would win 2-1

I have seen that poll as well.

However, an 11 million vote victory announced within hours of polls closing

Khameni siding with his boy so forcefully?

The people of Iran aren't stupid

[whogotit?]

A) There is another administration in office

The son of the Shah. This guy has no access to power in America

Here is another legit sourced article for you

A) yes, your right but as soon as Iraq was taken who went to power? Chalabi..The Iraqi people voted his thieving butt out of office.

obviously he does they are granting him interviews as if he is relevant

[SkinsHokieFan]

A) yes, your right but as soon as Iraq was taken who went to power? Chalabi..The Iraqi people voted his thieving butt out of office.

obviously he does they are granting him interviews as if he is relevant

A) Again, another administration. There are quite a few differences between Bush and Obama, including the fact Obama is not actively seeking a war with Iran, nor has he jumped into the fray (wtf, I can't believe I am vouching for the President)

He spoke to reporters at the national press club. His "I am the son of the Shah" gives him the ability to hold a press conference. But considering its been 30 years since the Shah fell, this dude has no relevance nor access to power, in particular with this administration.

You are going to have to prove that he does

[whogotit?]

I have seen that poll as well.

However, an 11 million vote victory announced within hours of polls closing

Khameni siding with his boy so forcefully?

The people of Iran aren't stupid

HAHAHA Mousavi was claiming not predicting that he won before the polls were closed..

People were dying on both sides...lets not forget that terrorists on Mousavis side blew up a gas line and tried to blow up a Mosque......(that is SO black ops)

Yeah they arent stupid its just Americans that are for falling for the same ish time and time again...but, of course we didnt have the balls to stand up after TWO rigged elections in our own country

[whogotit?]

A) Again, another administration. There are quite a few differences between Bush and Obama, including the fact Obama is not actively seeking a war with Iran, nor has he jumped into the fray (wtf, I can't believe I am vouching for the President)

He spoke to reporters at the national press club. His "I am the son of the Shah" gives him the ability to hold a press conference. But considering its been 30 years since the Shah fell, this dude has no relevance nor access to power, in particular with this administration.

You are going to have to prove that he does

A) Please, dont be fooled by Obama he is an imperialist just like the rest of them.

People said the same thing about Chalabi..