My Draft Thoughts

[Destructis]

Since the draft is coming up soon, I wanted to make a post on my thoughts on how players are evalutated.

These pro day workouts, the combine and all these private workouts are just crap. If I were a GM in charge of a draft, I would only evaluate two things from these "workouts". I would meet with the player and see if I thought his personality would mesh well with the team and the team dynamic. The other thing I would do is give the player a physical to see if there are any injuries that might have long term implications. (See Malcolm Kelly).

I would ignore the workout warriors. These guys might be able to do the shuttle in record time, but it really doesn't translate to real game situations.

My main process for targeting a player to be drafted is to watch game tape. See if he dominated the player across from him each game. How high of a motor the guy has. Does he take plays off? How fast can he get to the ball. Does he alligator arm it when going across the middle. Will he hold on to the ball if he gets cold ****ed by a DB or Safety. How fast is he off the line. If someone plays press coverage on him, can he fend it off. Does he play smart. Can he block on runs and passes.

Each position has different things that are important to playing it. I was just tossing some examples up there. These days, teams put so much into workouts and seem to put less into watching them in actual game situations. All we hear about is that this guy can run a 4.3 40. Screw that, can he run a knock a receiver cold going over the middle? Game tape is what will tell me if the guy is a real player.

I am sure they watch lots of game tape, but I just wish they would avoid the workout part all together.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Excellent points Destructis, and I couldn't agree more.

WAY too much stock get's put on individual workout's, and the combine in particular, which is done without full pads. I've never quite gotten why that is.

Sure, you want to get as much info is as humanly possible on these guys if your about to invest big bucks in them, but there's NO greater gage than what the eye see's in actual full speed, full on game's.

Statistics, many of which are totally irrelevant from the combine and workouts as regards certain positions, can mask a lot about the true ability of a player- on the actual field of play it's self.

Hail.

[derekc4]

I would ignore the workout warriors.

So you would ignore combine freaks like Aaron Curry or Calvin Johnson? Ignore is a strong word. You always look at production first. It isn't a good indication of NFL production, but it's the best teams have. I also think football intelligence is key as well.

I think having good measurables in addition to production is all you have to put a player over the top.

Also using your method, a player like Peter Warrick, with terrible measurables but great college production still gets drafted high. I think you have to analyze both film and tangibles simultaneously. Drafting is not a science, but an art. The only things you can do is analyze production, measurables, and fit into your system. If you emphasize one more than the other, I'd choose fit.

This is why teams like the Steelers and Patriots and Colts and Giants always seem to draft successfully. Although hard to judge, I honestly believe the talent they have is overall roughly equal to other teams (such as we) who are on the cusp, but since all of their players have strongly defined roles, a lack of talent is overlooked due to general effectiveness and fit.

Just what I think about the draft. But I'd never ignore any aspect of the draft entirely. There are just too mant variables to ignore any, but some should take more emphasis, and you're right. Measurables at pro days and the combine should definitely be judged with a slightly skeptical eye.

[Zhouse]

This "putting too much stock in workouts" thing you're talking about happens with the media and fans mostly. It's a talking point because the majority of us don't spend time watching every game film to the detail that's needed so we take a shortcut and rave about someone's 40 and bench instead.....teams and pro scouts don't draft based on that alone.

[Destructis]

I never said they draft on that based alone. While the fans and media talk about the work stuff, the NFL front office people are the ones there watching. If you think that it doesn't affect the draft much, you are very mistaken. Look at people who climb the boards rapidly after having a good workout. Tony Mandarich is someone who immediately comes to mind. There have been a ton of players who climb the boards because of good workouts and had average game abilities.

[Zhouse]

but naturally scouts and GM get these guys to workout because they did show something on film. If a guy can't show flashes on film, then you probably won't work him out right? So it's only natural for someone's stock to rise because he's now showing athleticism, strength, agility etc.

I just think you're not giving GM's enough credit. I fully believe they do their due diligence.

[Jimbo]

I never said they draft on that based alone. While the fans and media talk about the work stuff, the NFL front office people are the ones there watching. If you think that it doesn't affect the draft much, you are very mistaken. Look at people who climb the boards rapidly after having a good workout. Tony Mandarich is someone who immediately comes to mind. There have been a ton of players who climb the boards because of good workouts and had average game abilities.

Roidman Mandarich wasn't simply a workout warrior. On tape, the guy constantly pancaked opponants and dominated just about everyone he faced. That guy was going early in the draft matter what.

Then again, let's look at Andre Smith. He made a couple of bad decisions but nothing really major. He also didn't have a great Pro Day workout but the game tape says the guy is a player. Forget the combine stuff and the workout and draft the guy because he can play. Chris Samuels will take this 'Bama boy and teach him how to become an NFL "man". Buges will coach him up and he'll get the job done. I have no doubt about that.

[boofMcboof]

I think it's pretty naive to think that measurables aren't important. You want as much information as possible in regards to your prospects. That involves studying game tape, getting an idea for his athletic potential, and seeing what their mental makeup is. There are so many variables to get a handle on for each player. Valuation of those variables within the context of the team's strategy is the key. That's why some people and organizations are better at it than others.

As you're separating your prospects into tiers, you realize that players from different conferences don't play against the same competition let alone the same individual athletes, so that's why you don't judge purely on production alone.

[Destructis]

As you're separating your prospects into tiers, you realize that players from different conferences don't play against the same competition let alone the same individual athletes, so that's why you don't judge purely on production alone.

Clearly, you would need to adjust your evaluations based on this. For example, if you are interested in a Division II player, he would need to absolutely dominate or you would need to see something on tape that you feel might need fine tuning to reach that elite level.

I still feel that to many players rise on the draft charts who had mediocre college careers because of a good "workout".

[gatorskin77]

Then again, let's look at Andre Smith. He made a couple of bad decisions but nothing really major. He also didn't have a great Pro Day workout but the game tape says the guy is a player. Forget the combine stuff and the workout and draft the guy because he can play. Chris Samuels will take this 'Bama boy and teach him how to become an NFL "man". Buges will coach him up and he'll get the job done. I have no doubt about that.

I think you should look at every thing possible to evaluate potential prospects but honestly who's idea was it to have a 340 pound o lineman run a 40 yard dash I don't care if he can't run 40 yards in an hour he can play

[PROSCOUT]

I think you should look at every thing possible to evaluate potential prospects but honestly who's idea was it to have a 340 pound o lineman run a 40 yard dash I don't care if he can't run 40 yards in an hour he can play

Boy if that doesn;t say it all I don't know what does! Good post.

First of all Andre Smith should probably be a guard in the NFL, at least in the beginning, and second, if he came in and played guard, then on 90% of the plays he would not venture more than 5 yards downfield, passing plays or running plays.

40 yard dashes for offensive linemen are stupid and there should be a more competent system for evaluating them beginning with pushing and shoving drills....because thats mostly what they do.

[PROSCOUT]

Boy if that doesn;t say it all I don't know what does! Good post.

First of all Andre Smith should probably be a guard in the NFL, at least in the beginning, and second, if he came in and played guard, then on 90% of the plays he would not venture more than 5 yards downfield, passing plays or running plays.

40 yard dashes for offensive linemen are stupid and there should be a more competent system for evaluating them beginning with pushing and shoving drills....because thats mostly what they do.

p.s. the short shuttle would be a MUCH better evaluation for guards over the 40 yard dash. The short shuttle can eliminate guards who cannot pull or you can find hidden gems. the 40 yard dash only tells you how fast they can run to the buffet table.

[Chump Bailey]

I would ignore the workout warriors. These guys might be able to do the shuttle in record time, but it really doesn't translate to real game situations.

I think most analysts, be they former GM's, players or coaches, all tend to say the same, but their story changes real quick when a guy puts on a show at the combine and more often than not is immediately thrust into a whole different category/spotlight.

[SIXX99]

Hey a draft thread, I've been looking everywhere one.

[warriorz]

Will he hold on to the ball if he gets cold ****ed by a DB or Safety.

I dont think any player wants to get ****ed.

I think that the workouts give the GM's a better idea of a players potential stengths and weaknesses.

[Destructis]

I dont think any player wants to get ****ed.

I think that the workouts give the GM's a better idea of a players potential stengths and weaknesses.

Workouts should be considered minor in that aspect. What I am saying is that even with average play on tape in college games, that because someone has a good workout, they shoot up the draft chart. As much as I hate to say it, NE is very good at ignoring workouts and going by more on what they see on tape. They appear to watch the players on tape and see if their play style fits into what they want to do. I don't ever remember them drafting someone who had an average college career and had one of those "wow workouts".

[Thirtyfive2seven]

Great post, I would only add to that the GM's should bring as many people into Redskins park as possible as to not tip their hand on whom they are enamored with.

[pointyfootball]

The combine. pro days & individual workouts are more than just seeing who can run really fast or catch 8 balls in 12 seconds. Individual workouts, especially, are a way for FOs to evaluate a player's work ethic, football intelligence, motivation, etc., through interviews, watching of video, diagramming of plays and other methods that coaches and GMs use to measure the non-physical part of football.

Someone mentioned Smith and how good he looked in games in college, yet he was awful in workouts. His suspension for the bowl game, leaving the combine, not being ready for his individual pro day does not speak well of his motivation and concentration, something that is HUGE for NFL players. Coaches want players that are going to put in the time, be in shape, watch video, work hard to learn and be motivated during the off-season and during the week in the season, so that they will be able to play at the next level. If a player, knowing that he stands to make HUGE $$, is not motivated enough to focus for 3-4 months, how will he possibly stand the rigors of a 20+ game NFL season?

Personally, I think where the biggest mistakes are made by draft picks is when a player has a phenomenal BCS bowl game and goes from a "really good" pick to "top 10" based on that experience. I think Vince Young and Jemarcus Russell are two that come to mind in recent history.

pf

[cuchip703]

I would like to see the Skins use their head in this draft. Stop buying into hype and numbers and by into some reality. We were good the first eight games of last year...what changed that. Was it really the QB. Or was it the fact that both the running game and the qb had bad second halfs for another reason.....the people in front of them.