Ignatius J. Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 If Barack Obama wins this election I think pundits are going to look back and discover that one of the themes of his success was message discipline. You saw hillary clinton reinventing herself a few times trying out different themes, from experience, to change we can count on, and a few others. As he went on the attack of hillary, the mantra "Change we can Believe In" was behind every one of his attacks, if not directly spoken, then at least intimately tied to the message. As he shifted to McCain, the slogan morphed into "the change we need." A relatively small shift that has allowed him to attack McCain from a more policy oriented standpoint. The primary battle was low on details because barack and hillary ran on essentially the same platform. Now that he is going against McCain, clearer policy distinctions are coming to the front. Barack detailed his policy priorities in his last speech (at least as much as McCain did. Those of you who worry about how he is going to pay for it face the same problem with McCain's plan. Both seem equally untenable from outsider perspectives) So why am I talking about this now? In the wake of the Palin pick, barack's team sent out an off message "heartbeat away" press release that was quickly disowned by the campaign. why? Message discipline. They don't want to get into an argument about experience, never did, so why start it now? Instead, the perfected response was all kind words until they hammered her on the same issues that they have been hammering McCain on, especially on tax cuts, privatizing social security, and a woman's right to choose. John Kerry didn't quite do this as well. He never figured out how to counter the surprising turns in a campaign, but you can see that barack truly believes that he has the winning message. How do you respond to palin? She isn't the change we need. Watch for any other bumps in the road, I bet we'll see the same thing. It reminds me of the message written on the wall in bill clinton's campaign office by james carville: 1 Change vs. more of the same 2 The economy, stupid 3 Don't forget health care. Message discipline wins campaigns, and McCain doesn't have it. You can argue all you want that Barack and Joe Biden don't represent change at all, but gosh darn it if Barack and Joe don't cast themseleves in that light with every thing they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
expensivegift Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 An Obama spokesperson already criticized Palin on inexperience which is ironic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33 Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 An Obama spokesperson already criticized Palin on inexperience which is ironic Mr. I.J. Reilly already mentioned that. In the wake of the Palin pick, barack's team sent out an off message "heartbeat away" press release that was quickly disowned by the campaign. why? Message discipline. They don't want to get into an argument about experience, never did, so why start it now? Instead, the perfected response was all kind words until they hammered her on the same issues that they have been hammering McCain on, especially on tax cuts, privatizing social security, and a woman's right to choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
expensivegift Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I thought it was just hearsay that Obama retracted that message. Can I get a link on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DjTj Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I thought it was just hearsay that Obama retracted that message. Can I get a link on that? http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_distances_himself_from_hairtrigger_campaign_criticism_.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teller Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I thought it was just hearsay that Obama retracted that message. Can I get a link on that? You need a link to believe this campaign retracted a stupid comment? OLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Hey, it's breakfast time, some of us like links... and eggs, and bacon, and hash browns, and ... Staying on message has been a huge Republican strength in recent years. If Obama can stay on point it helps him, especially when the point is valid (and it is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teller Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Hey, it's breakfast time, some of us like links... and eggs, and bacon, and hash browns, and ...Staying on message has been a huge Republican strength in recent years. If Obama can stay on point it helps him, especially when the point is valid (and it is) :doh: It IS breakfast time, which makes it too early for bad puns. I guess I'm not sure I understand the OP. If the message is "change" then I guess it's easy to stay on point. Hell, after every administration in our history, some type of change has been needed. (Unless there was a time that I wasn't taught about in school when everything was perfect.) But if the message was being right about the war, and opposing a surge that has worked, then the message HAS changed. Taking Iraq off the table with our recent successes is a blow to the Obama campaign for sure. Still, I agree with the OP that generally, when the economy is bad, the incumbent party loses. So that works to more than counter the loss of Iraq as a big talking point. As for healthcare, I think there's a pretty decent divide there. Sure, you have some people who want universal, government run coverage. But there are just as many of us who have watched the federal government screw up virtually everything it's ever touched, who AREN'T interested in that. If one of these candidates would sack up, and give us a REAL plan for combatting our largest domestic problem -- illegal immigration -- they'd gain serious ground toward winning this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I'm not sure which is the largest domestic problem at this point. Is it illegal immigration? Is it our debt/financial institutional instability, is it energy, is it the health care disaster, is it that our Constitutional freedoms have come under direct attack, that our military is being overstretched, esp. the National Guard and reserves... The last eight years have presented too many wrongs. I don't know which one is worse, but it's far easier to see what isn't working than what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teller Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I'm not sure which is the largest domestic problem at this point. Is it illegal immigration? Is it our debt/financial institutional instability, is it energy, is it the health care disaster, is it that our Constitutional freedoms have come under direct attack, that our military is being overstretched, esp. the National Guard and reserves... The last eight years have presented too many wrongs. I don't know which one is worse, but it's far easier to see what isn't working than what is. There's no doubt about that. And we've found common ground in a lot of our disagreements with the Bush administration. I just don't think you can talk about ANY domestic problem, be it the economy, education, health care, housing, really anything, without addressing the immigration problem. But I think that's especially true of health care. If you even TRY to broach that issue, without tackling illegal immigration first, you've lost all respect in my eyes. (And that goes for both McCain AND Obama.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I think the oddest aspect is illegal immigration and terrorism. I don't understand the logic of winking at the border, but saying you believe that terrorists will use all means and tools to hurt us. If vanfulls of illegals or the Mexican Army can freely cross into the United States than what's to prevent a guy with a van and a dirty bomb? So, I agree that the border is an issue and touches on many things. I'm not sure that it's the very first thing on the agenda, but it is something that has been wrongfully been ignored... unless the threat of terrorism is completely bogus and is just being used as a scare tactic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zen-like Todd Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I'm not sure which is the largest domestic problem at this point. Is it illegal immigration? Is it our debt/financial institutional instability, is it energy, is it the health care disaster, is it that our Constitutional freedoms have come under direct attack, that our military is being overstretched, esp. the National Guard and reserves... The last eight years have presented too many wrongs. I don't know which one is worse, but it's far easier to see what isn't working than what is. IMHO, it is infrastructure. That includes energy production, energy delivery (the grid), and transportation (high speed rail, urban mass transit, highways, bridges, electrification of the automotive fleet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Yup, that's another biggie that we can blame on everyone... Infrastructure has been ignored to a large degree for at least 30 if not 40 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ignatius J. Posted August 31, 2008 Author Share Posted August 31, 2008 If the message is "change" then I guess it's easy to stay on point. Hell, after every administration in our history, some type of change has been needed. (Unless there was a time that I wasn't taught about in school when everything was perfect.) I think your point here is correct. He did pick a particularly easy message to stick to. And I'm not even saying it's a substatial, worthwhile, or even correct message, just that he's doing a great job of hammering home a message. Notice how easy it would have been to go off message, he could have made this about experience, or leadership, but that's not where he was going. I know that the right wing is going after Joe Biden as not a change agent, but the left is coming right back with the amtrack story. An outsider inside washington theme. Correct or no it's all the same message. Contrast with McCain's adds, for weeks we've heard the meesage "Not ready to lead" hammering home the experience issue, but then with the palin pick it's a sudden reversal to a the "reformer" candidate. I think McCain is going to try to push "proven reform" from now on, but he has not been anywhere near consistent on that message. But if the message was being right about the war, and opposing a surge that has worked, then the message HAS changed. Taking Iraq off the table with our recent successes is a blow to the Obama campaign for sure. That is not his message. It might be something he talks about in context of the message, but that is not the message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
81artmonk Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 Obama will win if enough people buy into his ideas. Like the govt supplying your every need. Don't have health care....no prob the govt will take care of it. Worried about SS, don't worry, we will tax the rich in order to cover it. Worried about the economy....no sweat, we will spend BILLIONS of dollars on unproven, unreliable fuels to create more jobs. Oh and if you don't like Bush, well great, vote for us becuase we aren't him. Obamas message has been don't worry, I will make sure that the govt will take care of you. That appeals to alot of people. People who are poor or struggling middle class, want something and while your at it, lets punish the rich. IMO I think Obama will lose by a small margin only because the Hilary supporters will migrate to Palin having resentment over his nomination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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