Texas and Ohio Predictions

[wskin44]

The voting percentages aren't as important as the delegates won. I predict that in the four primaries today they each walk away with 185 delegates. This 50/50 delegate split will continue through the remaining primaries giving Obama a 1684 to 1528 lead in elected delegates.

This would give Obama a 52% to 47% lead in elected delegates. Clinton would then have to take 63% of the super delegates to win the nomination. She currently has 55% of the super delegates who have committed.

She would have to convince 72% of the uncommitted super delegates to vote for her in the face of primary voting that only gave her 47% of the elected delegates.

This would be ugly, particularly since Obama has been so successful bringing out the black voters who have been so loyal to the Democratic Party in addition to many young voters. Hillary Clinton, one of the most divisive politicians that we have seen, risks splitting the Democratic Party to satisfy her own ambition.

[Forehead]

I actually think Obama may pull out Ohio, but we'll see. Either way, I think the general election at this point is John McCain's to lose. I don't think Hillary would have a chance against him. I think Obama has a better shot, but would ultimately lose.

[Kilmer17]

If Obama has to keep spending money to beat Hillary, then McCain has a chance to beat him.

IF Hillary quits after tonight, Obama will outspend McCain 10-1 heading into the conventions. It will be a tough road for McCain.

He beats Hillary in just about every scenario, but if this goes to the Dem convention and she "steals" the nomination, McCain will win big and have some coattails.

Nobody has been able to answer the question of WHO is big enough in the Dem Party to tell Hillary it's over? I think she takes the ship down.

[Duckus]

Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas popular votes, but loses the delegate race in TX by 9-10 delegates, she picks up 5 in Ohio and another 2 in RI, but loses 2 in VT.

At the end of the day, the Limbaugh Clinton camp keeps her in the race through April, and probably right to the convention. Which will be a complete bloodbath.

The winner at the end of the night tonight will be John McCain by a landslide. Both in the GOP race, and in the General Election race. The longer Hill stays in it, the bigger chance he has to win it.

Tonight will be a great night to be a Republican.

This could very well be true. I think its all on Texas. If Obama wins Texas, he wins the nomination and then I see a Obama vs McCain being a close close close close election. Down to the wire.

If Hillary wins Texas - this could very well go to the convention like you said. And McCain would have a large advantage from anyone who comes out alive from that. Would I declare him the winner then, no. But he would have a 10 point lead I think at that point nationally.

[ECU-ALUM]

Nobody has been able to answer the question of WHO is big enough in the Dem Party to tell Hillary it's over? I think she takes the ship down.

One person could do it: Al Gore.

He still carries a lot of weight within the party and Hillary knows if he ran it would've been all over for her a long time ago.

[DjTj]

Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas popular votes, but loses the delegate race in TX by 9-10 delegates, she picks up 5 in Ohio and another 2 in RI, but loses 2 in VT.

At the end of the day, the Limbaugh Clinton camp keeps her in the race through April, and probably right to the convention. Which will be a complete bloodbath.

The winner at the end of the night tonight will be John McCain by a landslide. Both in the GOP race, and in the General Election race. The longer Hill stays in it, the bigger chance he has to win it.

Tonight will be a great night to be a Republican.

I don't know, I really think the campaigning in Ohio will help in the General Election. Having a chance to introduce yourself to the voters early, and to build a big volunteer network, are assets that can carry over to November.

Democratic campaign workers are also getting a head start on building relationships with local politicians and becoming familiar with the political landscape.

For the same reason that Republicans will benefit from the Democrats not competing in Florida, I think the Democrats will benefit from the Republicans not competing in Ohio.

I think the extra time is particularly good for Obama, because he has proven very effective with more face time, and he won't be able to do this kind of state-by-state campaigning in the general election. There is also a good chance he will take public financing, so all this money he's raising now can only be used now.

As a Democrat, I want this race to go on as long as possible. (With the caveat that everybody gets on the same page by the convention).

[Kilmer17]

One person could do it: Al Gore.

He still carries a lot of weight within the party and Hillary knows if he ran it would've been all over for her a long time ago.

I think that's what he's been waiting to do.

I just think Hillary will tell him go **** himself.

[Kilmer17]

I don't know, I really think the campaigning in Ohio will help in the General Election. Having a chance to introduce yourself to the voters early, and to build a big volunteer network, are assets that can carry over to November.

Democratic campaign workers are also getting a head start on building relationships with local politicians and becoming familiar with the political landscape.

For the same reason that Republicans will benefit from the Democrats not competing in Florida, I think the Democrats will benefit from the Republicans not competing in Ohio.

I think the extra time is particularly good for Obama, because he has proven very effective with more face time, and he won't be able to do this kind of state-by-state campaigning in the general election. There is also a good chance he will take public financing, so all this money he's raising now can only be used now.

As a Democrat, I want this race to go on as long as possible. (With the caveat that everybody gets on the same page by the convention).

That's an interesting take on it. And far from the conventional wisdom spouted by the party. But I think you have some good points. The Dems MUST MUST MUST win Ohio to have a chance in NOV. And they have to hold onto MINN, WISC and PA. McCain on the other hand, will need to simply hold onto Ohio or pick off one of those others and he has it wrapped up. His issue will be holding onto Missouri.

I think I can go ahead and make this prediction- If Obama gets the nomination, he'll win the mythical "popular vote" by 4 or more points. I just dont think that will guarentee an electoral college victory for him.

[ECU-ALUM]

I think that's what he's been waiting to do.

I just think Hillary will tell him go **** himself.

Let her do that...that action will seal her fate within the party. She will become a pariah within the party and Obama will become a martyr. Not even her husband will be able to get her out of that mess.