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Texas and Ohio Predictions


Ford

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Polls close in Texas close at 8 eastern and then they caucus. Ohio Polls close 7 eastern.

For Ohio I'm going to predict Clinton 55, Obama 44 .. 1% other

Texas I am going to say Clinton 51, Obama 48 in the primary, with Obama faring better in the caucuses.

I'm not going to act as if I begin to understand all the intricacies of Texas' bizarres system of delegate allocation so it's hard for me to say how the delegates breakdown in the aftermath of this contest. A lot of late polls are showing Obama with a very slim (within the margin of error) lead over Clinton.

In the Survey USA poll, consistently one of the most accurate, Clinton had a tiny lead among those who had already voted through early voting, and Obama had a tiny lead among remaining likely voters. Both were within the margin of error. Most of these late Texas polls I have seen that favor Obama, however, are accounting for only about a 53% female portion of the electorate. In my mind this number represents about the basement of potential female participation and judging by similar Democratic primaries this year, I would expect that number to be more like 55-59%. Clinton has shown leads of 25% plus in Texas among women and I think it will be enough to push her over the top.

I could be completely wrong, and that's why they actually vote. If she pulls off those two victories tomorrow, she's not dropping out even if she is still mathematically a long shot. If she loses one of those states, or they both are extremely close, she may start hemorrhaging Super-Delegates who have been compliant with her requests to wait until Texas and Ohio voted before considering jumping ship.

Should be interesting.

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According to David Plouffe ... Obama's campaign manager..

There are 611 pledged delegates left after March 4th’s contests. They would need to win at least 62% of all remaining pledged delegates to get back to even.

That assumes an even split tomorrow and is referring to only pledged delegates. Super delegates are not included in that calculation, but if the popular vote starts to trend one way, they'll quickly follow.

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looks to me like Hillary is coming back strong. She's firing on all cylanders.

It also looks like worse case scenario for Democrats. Hillary has a good chance of winning Ohio and Texas but not by enough of a margine to become the front runner.

So what democrats are left with is Obama has the lead, but hasn't won any of the largest states. California, New York, Ohio, and Texas all going for Hillary.

Hillary stays in the race and softens up Obama more before he even faces McCain.

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The polling has been off so much this year if you go by that you'll be weather channel disappointed.

Obama is going to win them all.

IF Hillary wins enough NOW to get it, the fix is in.

I kind of agree.... I don't know why people think Texas is a slam dunk for Clinton. People say because of the Latino vote and their loyalty to Bill. However I think people take forgranted that young Latino voters have increased signigicantly in the last 8 years and I would venture to say they would sway more towards Obama. You also have to take into account that Texas is an open primary and you will have a population of GOP voters going out to vote for Obama just to screw Hillary. And don't think people don't do it. I did it four years ago in VA.

Ohio I would think would lean Hillary, but again Ohio is a college heavy state with a lot of young voters. On the other hand its a soccer mom state. So I think its going to very close leaning towards Clinton.

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Texan Republicans HATE the Clintons.

In TX, no matter what your party affiliation is... you can vote for whomever you want.

I'm willing to bet Republicans vote for Obama purely to oust Clinton.

I think its vise versa...republicans want Clinton to win Texas so the race keeps going and the potential to face her in November.

-Grant

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I don't think the press has been fair to Mrs. Clinton. She cares for this country and was the life blood behind one of the more successful administrations we've seen.

I hope my fellow patriots in these four wonderful states chose to vote for the "good ole times", the last time a Clinton was in the White House.

We need her in the white house. No one else will save our country from what Bush has done.

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I think its vise versa...republicans want Clinton to win Texas so the race keeps going and the potential to face her in November.

-Grant

I could not disagree with you more... they would much rather face Obama. He has no record, it will be easier to pick him apart

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I don't think the press has been fair to Mrs. Clinton. She cares for this country and was the life blood behind one of the more successful administrations we've seen.

I hope my fellow patriots in these four wonderful states chose to vote for the "good ole times", the last time a Clinton was in the White House.

We need her in the white house. No one else will save our country from what Bush has done.

GibbsFactor, this isn't really you talking, is it?? That doesn't sound like the libertarian we all know and love.

As for tonight, I am hoping that Obama can pull off the popular vote in Texas. He WILL lose by 10 in Ohio (I have some inside info to back this claim up), but I think Texas is better for him than people realize. He will dominate in Vermont and keep things close-ish in Rhode Island. More importantly, the next batch of states is highly favorable for him.

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I wish both of them would shut up and just run together to end this mess, but that will never happen :doh: This is why we lose elections.
If Clinton somehow pulls this off (which is still pretty unlikely), she will have to pick Obama as her running mate. Every time she has been asked the question in a debate she has spoke favorably of the idea, and it makes entirely too much sense not to have a Clinton-Obama ticket.

If Obama wins, he can go in many different directions, but if Hillary keeps making this push, I think there will be strong pressure to pick a woman.

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GibbsFactor, this isn't really you talking, is it?? That doesn't sound like the libertarian we all know and love.

As for tonight, I am hoping that Obama can pull off the popular vote in Texas. He WILL lose by 10 in Ohio (I have some inside info to back this claim up), but I think Texas is better for him than people realize. He will dominate in Vermont and keep things close-ish in Rhode Island. More importantly, the next batch of states is highly favorable for him.

That was tongue and cheek. But don't worry, I'm going to the RNC to make sure the damn GOP puts in the original game plan. We are going for everything but foreign policy, which is essentially a lost cause at this point.

As for tonight, I really think it's over. Clinton's got nothing in the tank. She won't get her 60% wins this day. She ran into a juggernaut at the wrong time. There is a lot of racism still in Texas, don't get me wrong, but there's also a lot of sexist pigs down there too.

NAFTA hurts her in Ohio but she may squeak out an edge there, just not enough.

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Obama: Texas

Vermont

And in an upset...Rhode Island

Clinton: Ohio but only by 10 pts...thus keeping her "mathamatically alive for the playoffs" as it were.

I have a nasty feeling that Hillary will be too stubborn to quit and she won't put her ego above the party's well-being. Depsite the calls from many (if she loses 3 out of 4 tonight) for her to step aside.

This thing will go to the convention and there will be a lot of behind the scenes wheeling and dealing to get her the nomination...thus dividing the party further and really p****** off a whole lot of people...allowing McCain to skate into the White House. (Besides she now has the kiss of death...rush Limbaugh is supporting her).

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these republicans that are now supporting Hillary will not for any reason vote for her in the general -- I don't care how much they say they don't like McCain. McCain will pick a conservative running mate and all will be forgiven.

I happen to agree with you on that point.

I heard one of the analyst on FOX (so take that for what it's worth) say don't be surprised if Colin Powell is McCain's pick.

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Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas popular votes, but loses the delegate race in TX by 9-10 delegates, she picks up 5 in Ohio and another 2 in RI, but loses 2 in VT.

At the end of the day, the Limbaugh Clinton camp keeps her in the race through April, and probably right to the convention. Which will be a complete bloodbath.

The winner at the end of the night tonight will be John McCain by a landslide. Both in the GOP race, and in the General Election race. The longer Hill stays in it, the bigger chance he has to win it.

Tonight will be a great night to be a Republican.

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