NorthEast Skin Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 I have not seen these posted. Whatever you think of the guy he does use stats exclusively here and has the skins at #4 in the entire league: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl05.htm NFL 2005 thru Monday, October 24, 2005 __ Week #7 HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.25 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS 1 Indianapolis Colts = 28.04 7 0 0 16.18( 30) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 30.39 1 | 26.62 5 2 Denver Broncos = 27.81 5 2 0 23.77( 4) 5 0 0 | 5 1 0 | 29.17 2 | 26.91 4 3 Jacksonville Jaguars = 26.87 4 2 0 24.76( 3) 2 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 28.92 3 | 25.53 7 4 Washington Redskins = 26.48 4 2 0 22.36( 6) 1 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 28.29 4 | 25.27 8 5 Kansas City Chiefs = 26.40 4 2 0 22.08( 8) 1 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 26.75 6 | 26.27 6 6 Pittsburgh Steelers = 26.36 4 2 0 20.80( 14) 1 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 24.83 10 | 28.72 2 7 San Diego Chargers = 25.61 3 4 0 25.14( 1) 1 3 0 | 3 4 0 | 23.58 13 | 28.83 1 8 Seattle Seahawks = 25.24 5 2 0 19.00( 21) 0 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 27.20 5 | 23.87 10 9 Philadelphia Eagles = 25.03 4 2 0 21.75( 10) 2 0 0 | 3 2 0 | 26.68 7 | 23.85 11 10 New England Patriots = 24.85 3 3 0 25.05( 2) 1 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 24.86 9 | 25.06 9 NFL 2005 thru Monday, October 24, 2005 __ Week #7 HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.25 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS 11 Cincinnati Bengals = 24.81 5 2 0 18.34( 23) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 23.08 14 | 27.31 3 12 Dallas Cowboys = 23.96 4 3 0 23.10( 5) 2 2 0 | 3 3 0 | 25.31 8 | 22.98 13 13 New York Giants = 23.67 4 2 0 18.60( 22) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 24.15 12 | 23.42 12 14 Atlanta Falcons = 23.10 5 2 0 17.94( 24) 1 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 24.25 11 | 22.25 16 15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 21.91 5 1 0 15.55( 32) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 22.11 15 | 21.92 17 16 Oakland Raiders = 20.04 2 4 0 21.95( 9) 0 4 0 | 1 4 0 | 18.50 17 | 21.81 18 17 Chicago Bears = 19.36 3 3 0 17.67( 26) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 15.79 21 | 22.97 14 18 Detroit Lions = 19.19 3 3 0 17.63( 27) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.60 22 | 22.77 15 19 Carolina Panthers = 18.87 4 2 0 16.85( 29) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 20.24 16 | 17.68 20 20 Miami Dolphins = 16.79 2 4 0 20.94( 13) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 18.02 19 | 15.68 25 NFL 2005 thru Monday, October 24, 2005 __ Week #7 HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.25 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS 21 St. Louis Rams = 16.60 3 4 0 19.10( 19) 0 2 0 | 0 3 0 | 18.26 18 | 14.95 26 22 Cleveland Browns = 16.32 2 4 0 20.12( 15) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 12.87 30 | 19.11 19 23 New York Jets = 16.31 2 5 0 21.26( 12) 0 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 16.46 20 | 16.39 23 24 Baltimore Ravens = 15.18 2 4 0 19.02( 20) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 13.58 29 | 16.71 22 25 Tennessee Titans = 14.91 2 5 0 19.36( 18) 0 2 0 | 0 3 0 | 13.79 27 | 16.09 24 26 Buffalo Bills = 14.34 3 4 0 16.16( 31) 0 0 0 | 0 3 0 | 14.91 23 | 13.96 27 27 Green Bay Packers = 14.12 1 5 0 17.08( 28) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 8.54 31 | 17.19 21 28 New Orleans Saints = 13.64 2 5 0 20.03( 16) 0 0 0 | 0 2 0 | 14.90 24 | 12.35 28 29 Minnesota Vikings = 12.54 2 4 0 19.49( 17) 0 0 0 | 0 3 0 | 13.78 28 | 11.23 29 30 Arizona Cardinals = 12.51 2 4 0 17.74( 25) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 14.18 25 | 10.43 30 NFL 2005 thru Monday, October 24, 2005 __ Week #7 HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.25 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS 31 San Francisco 49ers = 11.41 1 5 0 21.40( 11) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 14.16 26 | 3.27 32 32 Houston Texans = 7.74 0 6 0 22.28( 7) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 6.86 32 | 8.62 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 I'm most impressed by the quality of our opponents. I don't have time to really check it up, but I bet our Strength of Schedule is one of the toughest in the league using these ratings (and in real life) even with the presence of the 49ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H-O-G Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 we will be facing a #13 team this week I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dawgjk9 Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 kinda impressive how he does all of that...like i said in antoher thread though, when we play an nfc east team, stats get thrown out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 44 Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 Its intresting that for the most part this one falls fairly closely in line with the polls. With the obvious exception being the Skins. Makes you wonder just how "objective" the "polls" are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Om Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 Sucks, though. Unless two of the three ahead of us---Indy, Denver, Jacksonville---lose, we have no shot at the title game. They really need to come up with a playoff system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLongshot Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 They really need to come up with a playoff system. Damn BCS... :laugh: Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oriolesfan93p Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 I like this, but it still puts us in the hole against the Giants cause of the home field advantage, thing is, there is more of a home field advantage at some stadiums than others, like the Broncs and Chiefs stadiums are harder to play in than the Giants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dawgjk9 Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 nfl version of bcs..though impressive as ive said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
herrmag Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 Ranked 4th? I love my skins, but I think that's a little high. It's a shame they don't use ppg avg. as a stat. I think it would be more telling, and put the Giants much closer to our ranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baculus Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 That's kinda cool that he is using the ELO chess rating system for the league. I remember that system well when I used to play rated chess, and it always produced some interesting results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redman Posted October 26, 2005 Share Posted October 26, 2005 I'm most impressed by the quality of our opponents. I don't have time to really check it up, but I bet our Strength of Schedule is one of the toughest in the league using these ratings (and in real life) even with the presence of the 49ers.Based upon last year's performance, our schedule was IIRC the 2nd toughest. Of course, that's last year . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonnyJ Posted October 27, 2005 Share Posted October 27, 2005 Based solely on YTD performance, with no mental adjustment for recent past season performance and expectation, these ratings "feel" about right. A lot of teams bunched together towards the top and middle. Then a dropoff to the lesser teams. Honestly, the Redskins HAVE been better this year than the Eagles, quantitatively. A qualitative analysis would still lead you to believe that, given recent history, the Eagles are still the team to beat. But the gap ain't what it was at the beginning of the season. Our boys are closing quickly. :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gridironmike Posted October 27, 2005 Share Posted October 27, 2005 Sucks, though. Unless two of the three ahead of us---Indy, Denver, Jacksonville---lose, we have no shot at the title game. They really need to come up with a playoff system. With our corporate tie-in, I expect we'll be in the FedEx Orange Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wskin44 Posted October 27, 2005 Share Posted October 27, 2005 Sucks, though. Unless two of the three ahead of us---Indy, Denver, Jacksonville---lose, we have no shot at the title game. They really need to come up with a playoff system. Fat chance. Lenny P. will never give up his right to crown the Champion each year before the season starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lifelong Skins Fan Posted October 27, 2005 Share Posted October 27, 2005 Using Mr Sagrins algorythms and calculations the Giants should win 27.92 to 26.48. There may be a flaw. What the Sagrin Ratings do not take into account is MOMENTUM a 30 point win last week should be weighted more than a 30 point win in week 1. This shortcoming does not allow for injuries either. Injuries before Lavar stretcherized your QB are not good indicators of how you will do while he is in traction. These are the best ratings out there, but, as with stocks historical performance is not an indicator of future results. How come in the college rankings the home team gets 3 points and in the NFL 4.25? It would seem that not all "home fields" are created equal. And that home field is a bigger advantage in college where the venues are often larger and the fans more inebriated. Should the Giants only get 2.125 points since there Home field is a duplex.:notworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wskin44 Posted October 27, 2005 Share Posted October 27, 2005 That's kinda cool that he is using the ELO chess rating system for the league. I remember that system well when I used to play rated chess, and it always produced some interesting results. I was looking at Sagarin's ratings last week. What is the ELO rating system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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