Thinking Skins

Just now, Conn said:

I don’t really get what you’re saying here. Howell does all of those things and we don’t know if he’ll grow out of it, that’s a projection just as much as the guys you’re talking about. You’re talking as if Howell has already grown out of those habits. We haven’t seen that yet. And Howell improving is a very possible outcome, I’m just saying that you’re giving Howell credit for growth that we haven’t seen yet. You’re double-counting his potential because you’re more comfortable with him, when the prospects also have potential (higher, according to most people) and the ability to grow. So until we actually see Howell grow, you’re just assuming it’s inevitable. 

No I'm saying that he gets slack for the attempts on the things like TDs and yards but they should go into context like sacks and interceptions. If he were not doing his TDs and yards (these guys are not) then he would not have lasted this long. Some people in this fan base do not want to admit it because we are a battered fan base but Sam Howell is having a really good year, sacks and Interceptions included.

Even 13 interceptions. 13 interceptions is not a lot. That used to be a goal for a season. Then interceptions went down for a while when the rules changed, but now defenses are finding holes and new ways to attack offenses and you see QBs around the league with interceptions up.

 - Josh Allen has 14 Ints in 13 games up from 14 in 16 last year

 - Trevor Lawrence has 10 Ints in 13 games up from 7 in 17 games last year

 - Mahones has 11 in 13 games up from 12 in 17 last year 

 - Jared Goff has 10 in 13 games this year up from 7 in 17 last year

 - Tua has 11 in 13 games up from 8 in 13 last year. 

This year, the league is on pase for 425 interceptions total 

Last year there were 418, an increase in 7 interceptions.

2021 - 440

2020 - 395

2019 - 410

2018 - 419

2017 - 430

2016 - 415

2015 - 436

2014 - 450

2013 - 502

2012 - 468

2011 - 506

2010 - 511

2009 - 525

This is not just a Sam Howell thing. Its a league-wide trend. These passing numbers 

Then you add to it that 

 1) most of his interceptions came in two games (the Bills game and Giants 2)

 2) Most of his interceptions came when he was trying to play captain comeback. Not great but something that is more correctable than just him throwing into double coverage on a typical third down. 

This guy Tommy D has me looking at late round QBs. There are a few guys I wouldnt mind taking a flyer on to back up Sam. 

Look at the chart though at some of the names. Its not just about Howell 

Tua is 6'1 and he leads the league in passing yards

Purdy is 6-1 and he is 3rd

Howell is 6-1 and he is 5th

Hurts is 6-1 and his team is 10-3

Mayfield is 6-1 and Tampa's leading the division

Russell Wilson is 5-11 

Gardner Minshew is 6-1 and Indy's leading the division

I can go on and on with other examples from previous years but I'm at work.

And like I said we know about Howell's mental makeup. That counts for a lot. We didn;t know about Shuler or Frerotte until they came in the house. Same with Griffin and Cousins. Same with Haskins. I'm betting that it will be the same for Maye. We won't know his decision making and why he decided to throw it into triple coverage when there was a guy open underneath on thrid down, and why he did it again, or why he chose to run for the first when there's a guy open. These are the kinds of mistakes that rookies make and fans bang their heads about like what is he doing then they watch them grow out of it. We laughed as Daniel Jones took 4 years to grow out of it (and still hasn't). That could be Maye as well. 

"a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"

15 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

If Maye is available, you almost have to take him because I think being 6' 4" vs. Sam Howell at 6' 1" makes a significant difference in seeing the field.

 

Jayden Daniels is also 6' 4" but his frame is skinnier which may suggest durability concerns. Daniels is two inches taller than Lamar and listed as ~5 pounds lighter. Maybe you tell him to get up to at least 220, but you hope he doesn't lose his burst. 

Thing about Maye is that you don't know if Maye can do what he's doing in college in the Pros. you and I think he can, but its not perfect fit. How many times has EB said that Sam "never makes the same mistake twice". Now I know that's just a saying, but Sam is a coach's son, and studies hard, keeps a level head, and is able to rally a team when we're down 27-3. Those are things we can't say what Maye will do under next year because he's not in the pros yet.

I think you're overvalung the 6'4 height thing too much. 

1 hour ago, mojo said:

We could've easily lost every game we won as well.

Yeah I was saying that from the beginning. But that was the joy about the beginning of the season with Sam, every game was so close. There have been instances where we could have taken games over like the Atlanta game some deep shots but they were dropped. Other games it just seemed like we took out foot off the ingition and let them back in it either on defense or offense. 

But yeah you're right. 

I keep saying this, but people keep using the number of attempts as a negative, trying to say it goes against his yards and TDs because he has so many more attempts. But it also goes against his sacks and INTs too. Look at other guys with less attempts (way less attempts). 

 - Mac Jones has 345 attempts and 10 interceptions 3.5 int RATE he got benched, 5 lost fumbles

 - Aiden O'Connell has 210 attempts and 7 interceptions 3.3 RATE he got benched 

 - Desmond Ridder has 334 attempts and 9 interceptions 2.7 RATE he got benched (and reinserted because Heinicke was not good either) , lost 6 fumbles

 - Jordan Love has 447 attempts and 11 interceptions 2.5 RATE but he also has 7 fumbles

 - Daniel Jones has 160 attempts and 30 sacks and a sack rate of 15.8

 - Justin Fields has 255 attempts and 32 sacks and a sack rate of 11.1, with 4 lost fumbles

 - Zack Wilson has 357 attempts and 42 sacks and a sack rate of 10.5, with 6 lost fumbles 

 - Bryce Young has 417 attempts and 48 sacks and a sack rate of 10.3, with 5 lost fumbles

But these guys aren't producing at the level of Sam Howell, not nearly. Even though 6 of them are first rounders. Sam is outperforming them. 

4 minutes ago, skinsmania123 said:

But they are going to evaluate him based upon production and stats, because any team evaluating him wants to get a deal for their team as well. I don't know what you can sell them on if Sam does not statistically improve over these next 4 games. Personally, I do not see us getting better than a 4th rounder for him.  But truthfully, I want to hold onto Sam. He is on a cheap contract first of all, and if the new GM goes QB, you have a great backup.  it's pretty clear that Sam's issues with this team seem to be as follows: EB's play calling and its predictability, the inefficient O-line, WR's NOT getting separation possibly due to scheme, and perhaps, connected with that last point, leading to a lack of explosive plays downfield.  Sam was excellent in college, as we all know in terms of completion percentages both in his freshman and sophomore year, and having players that can stretch the field.  Sam is essentially having his rookie year here, so has made boneheaded plays. My God look at Manning, and Aikman during their freshman campaigns. My biggest fear is if we trade him, and he has some fairly decent players around him and improved protection upfront, he is going to do very well. He is very level-headed, and he can make all the throws, and he is quick enough to pick up yards. 

 

In 2019, he was rated 5th in the country in terms of accuracy and decision-making. BUT in 2020 he did not have the receiver talent around him, so he ran a lot, and scored 11 TD's. I find it curious that Dyami Brown was his go to guy in 2018- 2019 in college - a very reliable connection, but here in Washington, not so much. Brown has dropped balls, sometimes can't get separation, and Sam of course has overthrown him.  And this to me comes back to the lack of protection upfront, and predictability of this offense. 

 

How do you fairly evaluate him?  You give him another year.  You form a decent O line, which may take a couple of years. But just improvements there would help Howell improve.  If we have the opportunity to take Harrison Jr (who will IMO match expectations in the NFL), that would be a game changer for this offense. A true big-bodied #1 receiver.  And if you can't get someone of his caliber, you have to at least get yourself a kick ass TE who can achieve YAC.  All the top QB's have had that TE connection.  But IMO you have to jettison EB. He is not the right fit for this team. 

But you are lessening your own investment. I see Howell as the starter for this team and I'm not looking to trade him at all. I'm just saying that when you do look to trade, you stack the POSITIVES like the things I mention, the top 5 in yards, top half in TDs, other things likt rushing yards and TDs, QBR depending on which site you go by SUCC rate, first down %, etc. 

You can compare that to Kirk Cousins who we had here, who we were negotiating for a first rounder if we would have just picked up the phone. And he was a much more expensive guy. But he was only 7th in yards. But similar in TDs. That year he was up there for interceptions with 13. This is something that I think you need to think about.

Howell was a 5th round pick but even at the Senior Bowl they were talking about him being a 1st or 2nd round pick. Teams have not forgotten this. They see what he's and they expected it. If we trade him for less than a first we are just being foolish. 

But we shouldn't trade him. We should build around him. If we had drafted him (say instead of drafting Johan) and sat him similarly then this wouldn't be a conversation because he would be doing what is expected. He is having typical struggles. He is still performing better than anyone in his class minus Purdy who has the Greatest Show on Grass. I'm not knocking Purdy but that's hard to expect. We need to build around Howell and get him a LT and a defense so that some of those leads and drives he was building can last next year. 

24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont think you are gonna get a first for Howell. His "top 5" stats are skewed because EB refuses to run the football. His TD% is the lowest of the top 17 QB's in passing yards. His INT% is the second highest IN THE LEAGUE. His QBR is 23rd. I am not saying Howell cant be a good starter. He could end up being a top 15 player at the position. But when you actually dig into his stats with open eyes the story becomes much murkier.

That for them to tell you. I'm not going to offer them that. If I'm selling my car, I'm not going to go and try tell you why you should pay less. I'm going to tell you why you're getting a deal. His Iny % is high because he was trying to throw balls away and they were caught / intercepted. The sacks are because of the line and because he wants to make plays. Something he needs to learn from but a characteristic of his skill, and something you see in his rushing TDs. You're selling him short. I wouldn't want you negotiating the trade. 

17 hours ago, Chris 44 said:

It would be so tempting to ride with Howell and use this years first on OL, a stud playmaker or even trade down, then see what we have in Howell. But when will we ever pick this high again and have the opportunity to get a top QB? If Sam proves to not be the guy this year we are probably going to be stuck outside the top 5 and looking to trade up or be out of the running all together in next years draft. Going to be a fascinating few months. This GM pick couldn't be more important. 

This is where a lot of GMs and NFL execs are coming in and saying that where Howell measures up vs this year's class. Someone brought up the bird in the hand argument which holds a lot of water and we have already seen what Howell can do. Kevin Sheehan has argued that this is the worse season in franchise history. But I contend with that because while we could easily have lost some games, but

 - we could have just as easily won the Philly game if we went for 2;

 - the Giants 1 game if Dotson makes that catch;

 - The Seattle game if the def holds and win in OT;

 - And the Giants 2 if not for that Holmes inteception by Howell and the Rodrigues fumble both when we were on drives deep in NY territory (at the 38 and 14 respectivey) and we win that game because we get 2 FGs and we are not trying to force that last pass for the pic 6 and we win 25-24. 

We are a team that is led by a young QB and a first year offense. So everybody is undertain about where to go and things like spacing and routes and stuff like that. Still the offense if doing a LOT better than the defese. That's why I don't see why we need to act like Howell has been the problem this year. Yes he has made mistakes, but he has also kept us in a lot of games this year.

4 hours ago, sjinhan said:

I say if we pick a QB in the first round then we offload Howell for whatever we can get.  I would think he is at minimum worth a 3rd or higher

How are people saying we get such a low pick for Howell? He is a first rounder at LEAST. That's the starting point of negotiations. You don't let a starting QB go on a rookie contract who is a pro bowler in the top 5 in yards and top half in TDs go for a 3rd rounder. Thats how we unerestimated Cousins, thinking nobody wanted him. He was a good starter. 

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

 

I am in the same place on Sam Howell that you are at.  I think his most likely outcome is ends up being a Derek Carr type QB.  Capable of putting together good seasons and a top 20 QB most seasons, but once he is not on a rookie contract, hard to win at a high level.  I think Howell is biggest limiting trait that likely defines his ceiling is his pocket awareness.  It wasn't good at UNC and it hasn't been good here.  I don't think with more snaps he'll get better at it but eventually you get diminishing returns and will stop improving.  I don't think Sam has hit his ceiling yet, I think he will likely develop into a good QB and if we end up at 4 and Williams, Maye, and Daniels are off the board drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. and upgrading the O-Line would probably really help him for next season.  But I would definietely draft Williams or Maye and probably Daniels though I am less certain of that one.

So one of the measurements I started using on Twitter to grade and distinguish QBs is what I'm calling the WOW moments in college. People were hyping Daniels and comparing his numbes to Burrow and I was quick to correct them and say, no Burrow set the college world on fire and had a lot more WOW moments passing the ball. And I was told to restrict it to Burrow's first 12 games because Daniels had only played 12 as well.

Burrow had 1-6, 3-5, 2-4, and 4-3 TD games. That's 10 games and 41 TDs, kinda big time. (4.1 TDS / game when he's on) (He also has 3 rushing TDs)

Daniels had 1-6, 1-5, 3-4, 4-3 TD games. Thats 35 TDs in 9 games, not on the same level as Burrow.  (3.8 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 7 rushing TDs)

Maye's two years are 

Maye22 0-6, 3-5, 1-4, 3-3, TD games. That's 28 TDs in 7 games by Maye. (4 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 7 rushing TDs)

Maye23 0-6, 0-5, 2-4, 1-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs 3 games by Maye. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 9 rushing TDs)

Looking at Howell's last two years are not nearly that impressive. 

Howell20 had 1-6, 0-5, 1-4, 4-3 TD games. That's 22 TDs in 6 games by Howell. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 5 rushing TDs)

Howell21 had 0-6, 1-5, 0-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs in 3 games by Howell. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 10 rushing TDs)

And just for fun (kinda boring and shows why he was Mr. Irrelivent)

Purdy18 had 0-6, 0-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 10 TDs in 3 games. (3.33 / game when he's on) (He also has 5 rushing TDs)

Purdy19 had 0-6, 1-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 15 TDs in 4 games (3.75 / game when he's on) (He also has 8 rushing TDs)

Purdy20 had 0-6, 0-5, 0-4, 3-3 TD games. That's 9 TDs in 3 games. (3.00 / game when he's on) (He also has 4 rushing TDs)

Purdy21 had 0-6, 0-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 10 TDs in 3 games. (3.33 / game when he's on) (He also has 1 rushing TDs)

So if I were going by just the draft reports I would probably take Howell behind these guys and not think twice about it. But now that we have Howell in the building and know things about his character and humility and the fact that he can lead an offense in the NFL and that he has the work ethic that matters and the durability so much more about him, that matters. I have questions about Daniels size.

But the wole Brock Purdy being an MVP and building around Sam Howell is an active debate on Twitter and its got people from Kurt Warner and Cam Newton to joe schmoes talking about who is worthy to be called a franchise QB. I think the draft process is too built around the player himself and not around the player fitting into the system. I think its great to get a player who can "make all the throws" and has the athleticism. but it doesn't mean didly if you don't have a LT and guys who can catch. and a defense who can hold the lead. 

I wonder what people think about bringing somebody in from the Rams FO? Galdi was talking about their F them picks strategy lately and I happened to listen to the podcast "Ref the District" next which talked about top 5 picks that won a superbowl on their team. Only 6 top 5 picks. Those are Carson Wentz*, Devin White, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Von Miller, Reggie Bush, Jamaal Lewis but Wentz should't be counted since he didn't play. The other stat is the number os QBs drafted in top 5 who won a QB with their team. only2 - Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning. If we include draft day trades, we get Elway and Manning. Lots of QBs have won SBs for othe teams but interesting stat. 

Anyway, at the end of this podcast, he mentioned the Rams, which Galdi had mendioned in his Podcast this morning as well. And it got me to thinking too about F dem Picks. Galdi's message was about Ron not being aggressive enough in the Stafford move and looking back wondering if things would have been different (they wouldn't have been different). But I wanted to look forward and say why not try to look forward and say what if we took an approach like them and just started trading picks for players like the Rams and Eagles (although the Eagles are more cautious and keep more picks). 

People are acting like he's Cerrato. Dude didn't go the 2008 draft. He has roots in the area and as Sheehan has been saying, it's good to have someone in the org who knows it sand is tied to it by more than a paycheck like Ron and Wright and whoever they hire. He knows the history. I'm not trying to give him a promotion or GM title or president title, just maybe not fire him. 

3 minutes ago, NoVaSkins21 said:

What this says to me is that Hurney is trying to save his own skin from the axe that's coming.  Here's hoping he's fired with Rivera, Mahew, and the rest of the bunch

Why though? He's had good draft opinions. Howell and Herbert are good. So I'd want him around talking QBs. Maybe not as the final guy but why so much animosity towards him just being employed?

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

Do you think Sam is only as good as the talent around him as opposed to being a QB who can make players around him better because of how great a QB he is? I know that's a tough question but there is a very small pattern here between his college and pro years (very small sample size). Is this a factor moving forward and part of the decision to stay with Sam or not? I know Sam has a big arm, can run and is very, very tough....but does he need a great supporting cast to be great?

A little of both. Accuracy shouldn't just go away because your stars did. So him having more games with below 60 comp % looks bad. It may be because of drops though like here. His CPOE is ridiculous. I can't find it for college. 

I think he showed he can take over a game and put it on his back with his legs. And that's what he did in 2021. That's something that was unknown about him, and it brought his team up. But his passing numbers weren't as good as they were expecting. 

I just found some stuff like CPOE called QBOPS for the drafts and it had Howell ranked low because it said he locked on his number 1 too much and wouldn't be anything and had Pickett really high on this class. 

Quote

Sam Howell

WROPS: .369/.690/.1.059

CPOE: +1.8

 

Sam Howell had major accuracy problems and threw far too many interceptions for me to seriously consider him. While his 2020 was better, it was only marginally so, and I prefer prospects who improve in their final season. That dynamic sophomore season was driven primarily by receivers Dazz Newsome (6th round, Chicago Bears) and Dyami Brown (3rd round, Washington Commanders), and without his two top targets, he locked on to sophomore Josh Downs far too frequently. Downs’ 101 receptions were 70 more than the next closest Tar Heel receiver. Carolina runs one of the most quarterback friendly schemes in college football, and I expect far more out of any potential pro prospect from that system. Accuracy and sacks are the major red flag here to go along with 9 picks.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/nfl-draft-2022-packers/2022/4/25/23039869/nfl-draft-2022-what-qbops-can-tell-us-about-the-quarterbacks

I'm looking at Sam's stats again through a different lens and I can see why he dropped in the draft. His 2021 year is so different than 2020. I meen night and day. By so many metrics. CFR doesn't keep track of sacks which is what I have been wanting to measure, but other things like his game by game completion percentage (3 games below 60 in 2020, 4 in 2021), his game by game TDs, his number of big games (a 6 TD game in 2020, none in 2021, a 4 TD game in 2020, none in 2021). Its not a dramatic dropoff but it is a dropoff. 

38 minutes ago, skinzplay said:

Hurney is local, his first job in the league was with us (he was a Keim-like guy covering the Skins before working for the team). He also learned a lot under Bobby Beathard when he was with the Chargers. He's got Redskins blood and institutional memory, something a lackey like JW doesn't have.

This 

Plus, I think that he is a good person to talk to because I doubt he is looking for a role as a GM right now. At the same time, the roles you mention, plus his years of experience gives him a lot of connections across the league. On one hand this is player agents who he worked deals with, but also former GMs and assistant GMs who he once hired and gave interns to or scouts who are now in positions across the league. People who he talked to at league meetings. He can tell Harris who is intelligent and who is going to BS him. Who is the VInny Cerrato at these meetings. 

I just think there is knowledge he can give if we accept that he is not just a lump of coal. 

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I listened to that.  Sheehan didn't know if Hurney would have any role one way or another, he flat out said it that way.  What he said was in that building Hurney has been a dude Josh has liked and listened to on some things.  Sheehan speculated about hey maybe he'd ask Hurney for his thoughts -- he goes Hurney is 67 so I gather his point is he might retire but leave with some suggestions.  

 

Heck I've heard that Harris gets along well with Ron, too.  But i also here of course Ron is as good as gone.

Yeah I was saying it was just speculation by Sheehan, but I'm saying that he's more informed than I am. Back in October I was just putting a straw in the air to see where the wind was blowing. Now it seems like at least one other person has at least that same vibe (or maybe he read my post). That's all I'm saying. Just that its not a naive idea as it was so easily dismissed in the QB thread 2 months ago. 

I brought this up earlier and the idea kinda got poo pooed but Sheehan brought it up to start his show today. Not necessarily in the same respect I was saying (Marty Hurney as our GM) but he was saying Marty as a potential advisor for Harris for finding the future GM and went on to remind us of all the links to Hurney and the former Skins and why they are reasons they Harris may like him. 

Josh Harris is 59. Marty Hurney is 67. That's a age gap but they're similar in age. I don't know how much weight Harris would put into those Athletic surveys or the fact that he likes analytics. I do know that Hurney is the one who found Howell and supposedly found Herbert but we didn't draft him. So that's something for them to talk about. 

I know back in October @Conn was calling him a Ron guy and saying that's why this wasn't going to work. Now if Marty is doing what I was thinking of then, either staying aboard, or helping to choose the next guy to just help Harris know what to look for in a guy because it is a crap shoot and I'm fearful we get a Bill O Brian, but not the coach version - just the GM who traded all the picks away. or even Scott Pioli who was deemed this next hot thing back when he was hired by the Chiefs. Then they went 23 and 41 over the next 4 years. 

Hopefully Harris is getting some good advice from a lot of people because this is a very important hire and I really hope this is not an Ernie Grunfield hire. 

My kids do not know the meaning of the word plot in a tv show. They watch endless youtube videos with what seems like no point. But what got my interest was a video 2 weeks ago about a mom and two sons making brownies. So i told them that at my first break in time I would try to make some brownies. 

First thing. I'm not a baker. 

Second thing. I don't like chocolate too much. 

So I am following an online recipe today (the bye week) but for White Chocolate Brownies instead of regular brownies.  So that's how I spent my bye week. 

Edit they turned out great. Even my wife was impressed. Those holes in the middle are from poking it to see if it was done yet. 

1 hour ago, MrJL said:

 

Brian Robinson has made a lot of it thoiugh

And Samuel lately. But I wonder if that's just because they're targeted or because they're better at finding holes in zone or better at mismatch against LBs than Terry against cb1.

Wasn't Jordan Reed good at the scramble drill?

18 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think Sheehan is wildly enteraining as a radio host so I don't get this Bayless streak im him where like Bayless he plays amateur scout and is hung up on getting things right.   He doesn't need to play that game IMO.

 

As I've talked about before, Cooley created a monster in Sheehan when he temporarily got it right with Cory Clement when Cooley didn't like him.  Cooley ended up right but for a few games Sheehan looked good.  And then he'd give other takes during-post Cooley film review.  But Cooley praised Sheehan for Clement at the time and it seemed to go to his head.

 

He's somewhat all over the place on QBs.  He loved Aaron Rodgers and wanted this team to try to get him for years.    He's also on the train of keep swinging in the draft until you find your QB.   I think he likes having off beat takes because it looks better when you are right.  I think the Kirk stuff is good on his end.  He liked Kirk before the draft.  That's a good get from him.  I am in the camp that agreed with him that Bruce-Dan botched the negotiation. 

 

I used to like Carr.  I wonder what happened to him?  In 2021, he looked like he was coming into his own, then he started to decline.  

The thing about Sheehan is he loves college ball, more than pro. So he watches it. He doesn't study it like a scout but he puts in more effort than a regular fan. So he's watching 4 or 5 or 6 games a weekend. I mean he's a gambling addict. He gambles on everything including these games the point spreads yards, etc. so I didn't think he's watching things like the technique as good as Logan Paulson but he has an informed opinion. It's wrong sometimes (Darnold, Fields) but he's not screaming at callers about it. 

8 hours ago, MrJL said:

no.

 

I have seen no evidence our skill position players don't respect him, and when he makes off schedule plays they seem to keep on the move and keep trying.  While he hasn't been able to get the OL to step up, it's possible they aren't up to the task

What I'm thinking about is on these off schedule plays who is he finding. I need to look it up but it's obviously not Terry and Johan very often. Heinicke would scramble then find Terry. That's one key difference between the two.