Thinking Skins

42 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

You want to win this game and your user name is “Thinking Skins”? You might want to reconsider that. How does winning a meaningless game against a team with no QB benefit this franchise in any way?

that what you say. It's meaningful to me and meaningful to the players. Houston won the last game of the season last year. Lovie Smith thinking he'd set up the bears. Instead, the Texans still git their guy. The draft will do what it does. But these games matter. This is tape for the players and helps them get future employment. Anybody who tells otherwise is selling something. 

I do believe that we are bad enough to lose but I want to win

26 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

We need Gibson to get all the snaps. Statistically he will fumble a great number of them. 

I want to win this game. I think Williams has an NFL future and hopefully he can audition in a pass catching role as well as seeing holes that aren't really there. 

The draft will do what it does. Maybe it will be like 1983 or maybe it will be like 2010. But my weeks are better when we win 

I hope Williams gets more play. He is they type of RB this offense needs. 

24 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Its interesting that hs his sack rate has declined his play has become more inconsistent.

 

I think coaches have been emphasizing to him 'be decisive' and 'get the ball out'. He is at his best holding it, going through reads and making plays down field. Instead hes been taking quick throws to his first read and forcing throws. He looks rushed and out of rhythm.

 

Coaches are right to want to get sacks under control - but you dont throw the baby out with the bath water. I think they have and I think Howell would look a lot better behind a good O'line with a stud a physical stud X receiver with much better coaching.

 

It will come down to how a new GM and HC look at Daniels or Mayes (most likely Daniels) versus Howell. If Howell continues to struggle the next few games it makes a reset at QB more and more likely. I think Howell can be really good - but he needs much better around him on and off the field for that to happen.

I don't think you can say that without saying who he's playing. He has played some of the best Defensive Coordinators in the league. He did have a good game against the Patriots. And we were in it both games against the Giants but they were not his best games. And there is more tape on him now, so these good coordinators can study his tendencies and know what to do to counter it. 

So when the Giants played him the first time, it was the first time he really looked shell shocked. Even against the Bills, we were able to move the Ball on some drives early in the game to give us hope. It didn't amount to points but it was something. The Giants 1 was just nothing  for like a whole half. But then halftime came and suddenly we were moving the ball. True we got our points off a turnover, but we did move the ball off a play to Terry that we didn't score on. And we had the ball deep again inside the 10 on that drop by Dotson on the game ending drive. So its not like he didn't come to at the end of the game. 

Same with Giants 2. People say we should have blown them out. But I hope that now people realize that was just Ashburh talk. We are not a good team. We should have been in the game we were in. Had we played a better game we would have scored 30 or 35 because we turned the ball over deep in their territory twice (fumble by CRod and int by Howell) that's 14 right there we could have. But we didn't and we were forcing things late and we lost the game. 

Same with the Dallas game. This is a top defense in the league. We were down 20-10 late in the 3rd and it was a good game. Many times we were driving deep into Dallas territory (2 or 3 times) but couldn't get points because we were at no mans land were you can't kick a FG and can't punt so you go for it but we didn't get it. So our drives stalled. But we were not a stagnant offense. Then the wheels fell off in the 4th and suddenly we're down 38-10 and we're trying to play comeback so he's trying to be a superhero and throwing balls he shouldn't be throwing and throws a pic 6. 

These last two games are the only two real games where I have began to worry. These are the only two games where all 3 of his Comp % < 60 and he has less than 200 yards since Dallas of last year. He had the Atlanta game where he had a 60% completion and 151 yards but I made excuses because of the return. But both these games we were behind a lot, and he was the main guy leading the offense. But against the Dolphins we weren't staying on the field or completing third downs. He did score those two rushing TDs though. 

Agains the Rams though, I felt like he was pressing because he was listening to outside noise. On his last play, the interception. He forced it to Terry. He had Samuel or Dotson straight ahead, where had scrambled to, and instead threw it to the dangerous middle to Terry. That was just not smart That was what he had been doing all day, he threw it on 4th down to Terry instead of to a WIDE OPEN Williams for a TD. We didn't score that drive. (shows that they trust Williams though to leave him in on 4th down). Either he's not seeing the field any more, which was a thing we were saying was a benefit of him in weeks 1-8 and he wasn't going to key on one WR, but now that he's forcing it to Terry he's not seeing the field. 

I think we need to let him see the field, and call these shorter plays like the outlets to Willims (Robinson is out Sunday) where he can see them too and not get mad when he chooses the RB over our $20 million WR. 

I also wonder who should get the majority of the snaps at RB. CRob is the likely guy, but I wonder if JWil can get any possibility. I have been pulling for him all yeat and he's finally on the roster. He got some snaps last week and was wide open on that route. That should get him some more playing time. He has history playing well. Hopfully the fact that he is so good as an all around back will keep him on the field and can get him carries. I think he is a better back than both CRob and Gibson. 

So my predictions for the game 

Siemian 19/30 195yards, 1TD, 1Int, 2Sacks, 14 Yards, 

24 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

We have a new owner, about to have a new stadium, new training facilities, best of the best from top to bottom and probably a new name, just to go along with our cap space and draft picks. We're a hot destination going forward. We were one of the very best teams in the league for years. Most respected franchise and that's coming back.

its that whole "about" that's scaring me. is it a few days? a few weeks? a few months? I'm thinking a few years. More likely, the new coach doesn't experience those facilities. So what does he gain in it? Its more like we're still that same old francise with a new name. Welll, a new owner and a new name but you get what I'm saying. But the things you mention aren't things that a new coach is going to experience. They aren't going to bring new players. 

Maybe things like that list that went around in 2020 about things that Snyder was doing that could make the Stadium more accessible to players (like the bathrooms more accessible, more changing rooms for the plars wives, I forget all the stuff). I remember hearing that Mrs Snyder turned her nose at the list because the stadium was about to be torn down so why put money into it. Meanwhile they were playing in it. 

But just this year we had water problems, we had lighting problems, Lord knows what else is going on that they're talking about and not telling us. But you're gonna act like this place automatically becomes the cream of the crop just because of the new owner. I admit that he will probably do things to help but that is just the first step. Doing things to help improve traffic is great, but traffic is traffic and it is sill bad. (Not saying thats going to deter candidates though, just saying that these problems are difficult to solve). 

We'll see though. What do we have like 25 days left? 

25 minutes ago, Conn said:

Why are you still thinking so much about EB @Thinking Skins? Regardless of how hot or not our openings are, he’s gonna get washed out with the rest of the refuse, and that’s totally normal. Why would anyone we’re looking at want to hold onto him (this part is a response to a post you made yesterday where you were looking for ways a new hire might keep him, for some reason). 

 

The tone of your post is almost like you hope our options are limited so EB can get a chance, which makes no sense. He’s not even a second tier candidate himself. 
 

I have to assume this is a result of all the time you spend going back and forth on twitter. All season, EB has been disproportionately popular with a segment of the twitter fanbase no matter what anyone else observes about his scheme. 

I am spending time thinking. Its in my user name 🙂 

Like I said, I don't know if this job will be as hot as some think. One analyst had it ranked 7th out of 10 possible openings. I think we are in a position where we think we are the best in the league because we are here. But others see us and think they would never want to come here. Maybe you would rather have Bill O'Brien after Bill is fired or another coaching retread? 

The other thing, I know Harris is big on analytics but how is he on chemistry and cohesion and learning and leadership? Those are important things. I don't want to just get a guy who's going to go for it on 4th down or have this great offense but can't talk to people like men. And that goes for EB too. 

As I think about this, I'm wondering how hot this job may really be. I've heard analysts talk about this not being a hit job (on Sheehan show) and it was dismissed as him not knowing about the ownership. But I know kinda disagree. They brought up some stuff like the stadium, practice facilities, workout room, trainers, and a lot of things like that that aren't easy to change with an owner. 

So I could see some of the top names going to some of the other more stable orgs and having us either go with EB or a second tier candidate. 

I think we may have Ashburn syndrome our coaching position 

It'll be interesting how this whole thing plays out. Move one for us will be firing Ron and probably Marty but he's not as high on my list as maybe many of yours. But if we want to get a GM in here ASAP we may want to have a vacant GM spot to have him interviewing for. 

After that what do we do with EB? We probably keep him at OC for the time being because he's on a 2 year deal. Then he interviews elsewhere while we interview for head coach. We will probably interview him too. 

But while this is going on you will have the Tomlin and Bill B stuff going on in these background, not to mention the stuff with the interim coaches. 

So who gets hired first? Will EB leave because he wants more stability (doesn't want to coach on a last year deal)? Will the big guys get traded? Will EB get a head job? And will he take Sam with him? 

Just now, Thinking Skins said:

I'm moving this from the FA thread where I mistakenly posted this. 

 

i'm not backing off my argument htat 500+ attempts so early in Sam's career may have hurt Sam's arm, but I also think that Sam is thinking too much right now. And I keep going back to his Wed press conference saying to get the ball out quickly and then the play when he was trying SO HARD to get the ball to TERRY. He was avoiding wide open guys. Thats pressing. That's not going with the offense and that's creating turnovers. But when he has a pocket and drops back to set, he get's pressure right up the middle (like the play at the 9 yard line).

 

But I just can't get over the fact that on that pic he didn't even look at Dotson. it was a 1st and 10 play and he had time, had a pocket, scrambled to the sideline, thats ok cause Dotson was right in front of him but instead he stays focused on Terry who trys to get open and almost does but he does a bad throw and throwes a pic to a dangerous area. 

 

Question is would we do things to stabalize the offense and let Sam regroup but stay in there? Do we have things like that? Like a running game. Do we have the OL for that? Is BRob good enough for that? I was hoping that for this game BRob and Armah coming back would install life into the running game, but BRob didn't come back and CRod and what little we saw of Gibson didn't do anything to the running game. 

And I'm going to go back and say that normally a young QB's best friend is a BIG TE. Early in the year it was Logan Thomas. Look at his game logs

 

1, 8 Tgts,  4 rec, 43 yds, 0TD

2, 3 Tgts,  2 rec, 22 yds, 1TD

3, 3 Tgts,  3 rec, 41 yds, 0TD

4, 11 Tgts,  9 rec, 77 yds, 1TD

5, 1 Tgts,  1 rec, 2 yds, 0TD

6, 6 Tgts,  4 rec, 51 yds, 0TD

7, 8 Tgts,  6 rec, 44 yds, 1TD

8, 5 Tgts,  4 rec, 31 yds, 0TD

9, 5 Tgts,  5 rec, 40 yds, 0TD

10, 8 Tgts,  5 rec, 58 yds, 0TD

11, 4 Tgts,  2 rec, 15 yds, 0TD

12, 1 Tgts,  0 rec, 0 yds, 0TD

13, 3 Tgts,  1 rec, 7 yds, 0TD

 

Notice that three game slump in priduction by Howell coincides with him not going to Thomas. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12/20/sam-howell-benched-future/

That's an article I read this morning. Consider the image they posted. I think it agrees with the stuff I posted here with regards to Logan Thomas. 

This image looks at Sam howell, but lets look at Sam to Logan in Weeks 1-8 vs 9-15. 

1-8

Tgts: 5.6

Rec: 4.1

TD: 0.375

9-15

Tgts: 4.2

Rec: 2.6

TD: 0

So we can see a clear stark decrease in production to the TE. 

I'm moving this from the FA thread where I mistakenly posted this. 

i'm not backing off my argument htat 500+ attempts so early in Sam's career may have hurt Sam's arm, but I also think that Sam is thinking too much right now. And I keep going back to his Wed press conference saying to get the ball out quickly and then the play when he was trying SO HARD to get the ball to TERRY. He was avoiding wide open guys. Thats pressing. That's not going with the offense and that's creating turnovers. But when he has a pocket and drops back to set, he get's pressure right up the middle (like the play at the 9 yard line).

But I just can't get over the fact that on that pic he didn't even look at Dotson. it was a 1st and 10 play and he had time, had a pocket, scrambled to the sideline, thats ok cause Dotson was right in front of him but instead he stays focused on Terry who trys to get open and almost does but he does a bad throw and throwes a pic to a dangerous area. 

Question is would we do things to stabalize the offense and let Sam regroup but stay in there? Do we have things like that? Like a running game. Do we have the OL for that? Is BRob good enough for that? I was hoping that for this game BRob and Armah coming back would install life into the running game, but BRob didn't come back and CRod and what little we saw of Gibson didn't do anything to the running game. 

And I'm going to go back and say that normally a young QB's best friend is a BIG TE. Early in the year it was Logan Thomas. Look at his game logs

1, 8 Tgts,  4 rec, 43 yds, 0TD

2, 3 Tgts,  2 rec, 22 yds, 1TD

3, 3 Tgts,  3 rec, 41 yds, 0TD

4, 11 Tgts,  9 rec, 77 yds, 1TD

5, 1 Tgts,  1 rec, 2 yds, 0TD

6, 6 Tgts,  4 rec, 51 yds, 0TD

7, 8 Tgts,  6 rec, 44 yds, 1TD

8, 5 Tgts,  4 rec, 31 yds, 0TD

9, 5 Tgts,  5 rec, 40 yds, 0TD

10, 8 Tgts,  5 rec, 58 yds, 0TD

11, 4 Tgts,  2 rec, 15 yds, 0TD

12, 1 Tgts,  0 rec, 0 yds, 0TD

13, 3 Tgts,  1 rec, 7 yds, 0TD

Notice that three game slump in priduction by Howell coincides with him not going to Thomas. 

On 12/19/2023 at 1:29 PM, TD_washingtonredskins said:

I don't think RR will bench Howell again. 

That's interesting. The people on the Ref the District Podcast were saying some conspiracy theory things that since Wright had already put out the tickets with Howell in it that he didn't want too much video around with Howell looking bad. then the co-host kinda shot that down saying that that would be Wright interfering with the football side of operations. 

But listening to that, I would just think that in after that game, Howell and Ron may have had a talk about it and the impact that benching has on a young guy and using it as a last resort, and he (Howell) doesn't want these last 3 weeks to be a QB roller coaster and an argument of Howell vs Brissett. So you (Ron and EB) need to do what you can to get Howell out of this slump. He (Harris) probably understands that Ron is going up against the upper echilons of defenses and maybe can cut a break and say that the team moved the ball against the Rams and shoulshave had 10-14 points with Howell if we scored that second drive (if that 4th and 1 ball is not batted).

Its not like Howell is doing all bad things. its just that he couldn't seem to have a series of good plays in a row in that third quarter. That deep ball to Terry was beautiful but it was called incomplete so it just goes in incomplete, even though (1) I thought Terry caught it and (2) Terry was interfered with. But before that was a 1 yard run by CRod and a 3 yard scramble by Howell. If Howell gets that completion, you can add 50 yards to his pass yards, so its at 152, that drive doesn't stall. He probably doesn't get that next pic. And we'd be around their 37 in FG range. Again, its not like he had this horrible game.

People are looking strictly at things like QBR and EPA but not the why and questioning what happened each play. That Interception was a bad play, as was that 4th and 1. There were some others that could have been intercepted where the defenders chose to bat the balls down so that improved his numbers. But I don't think we can just look at Howell's boxscore and say he had a bad game (or his worse game) so he should be benched. 

i'm not backing off my argument htat 500+ attempts so early in Sam's career may have hurt Sam's arm, but I also think that Sam is thinking too much right now. And I keep going back to his Wed press conference saying to get the ball out quickly and then the play when he was trying SO HARD to get the ball to TERRY. He was avoiding wide open guys. Thats pressing. That's not going with the offense and that's creating turnovers. But when he has a pocket and drops back to set, he get's pressure right up the middle (like the play at the 9 yard line).

But I just can't get over the fact that on that pic he didn't even look at Dotson. it was a 1st and 10 play and he had time, had a pocket, scrambled to the sideline, thats ok cause Dotson was right in front of him but instead he stays focused on Terry who trys to get open and almost does but he does a bad throw and throwes a pic to a dangerous area. 

Question is would we do things to stabalize the offense and let Sam regroup but stay in there? Do we have things like that? Like a running game. Do we have the OL for that? Is BRob good enough for that? I was hoping that for this game BRob and Armah coming back would install life into the running game, but BRob didn't come back and CRod and what little we saw of Gibson didn't do anything to the running game. 

And I'm going to go back and say that normally a young QB's best friend is a BIG TE. Early in the year it was Logan Thomas. Look at his game logs

1, 8 Tgts,  4 rec, 43 yds, 0TD

2, 3 Tgts,  2 rec, 22 yds, 1TD

3, 3 Tgts,  3 rec, 41 yds, 0TD

4, 11 Tgts,  9 rec, 77 yds, 1TD

5, 1 Tgts,  1 rec, 2 yds, 0TD

6, 6 Tgts,  4 rec, 51 yds, 0TD

7, 8 Tgts,  6 rec, 44 yds, 1TD

8, 5 Tgts,  4 rec, 31 yds, 0TD

9, 5 Tgts,  5 rec, 40 yds, 0TD

10, 8 Tgts,  5 rec, 58 yds, 0TD

11, 4 Tgts,  2 rec, 15 yds, 0TD

12, 1 Tgts,  0 rec, 0 yds, 0TD

13, 3 Tgts,  1 rec, 7 yds, 0TD

Notice that three game slump in priduction by Howell coincides with him not going to Thomas. 

Edit: Since Jumbo who carries a lot of weight around here liked this, I won't remove the thread, but I just realized I didn't post htis in the QB thread (What was I thinking) so I was going to move it there if its ok. 

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

I just never heard anyone say he looked physically tired in his previous game, so it's hard to imagine that set in after a week off is all I'm saying.  i have no doubt the season, especially a season like this, is a grind. I do believe such a long season full of hits has taken it's toll.  But no I do not believe throwing across his body into coverage or flat out missing throws is because his arm is tired.  

We've just never heard of a player being on this accelerated growth program before. 

2 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

No the poster I quoted said he was physically tired, used running a marathon 2 days after a 100 mile run as an analogy. To me he looks more frustrated than physically tired.  His head is down because they are losing badly and he is playing poorly is my thought.  

Yeah. I'm just saying the physical movement of taking the arm motion up and down making a throwing motion 500+ times plus practices plus the plays that don't count plus the off-season. It all adds up. 

Why is it so unreasonable to think of? It's not in baseball. I'm college they do 12 games. They hit the rookie wall, sophomore slump, etc. with 500+ why can't he be going through that? 

The highest passing attempts are all by NFL vets

Brady 2022 733

Stafford 2012 727

Brady 2021 719

Herbert 2022 699

Bledsoe 1994 691

Manning 2010 679

Ben Roethlisberger 2018 675 

Etc

The only one that's comparable is Bledsoe but he was in his second year with a year of NFL reps 475 atts in his first year. So he got to come in and not kill his arm. 

It's like SH is being made to do a 100 miler and only trained for a 10 miler or even a marathon. He's not going to hold up. 

23 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

And been a beaten man over the full season. It has been crazy that he has been able to stay healthy physically. Mentally, well, he looks shell shocked and the defenses are teeing off on him. With a rebuilt OL and a better weapon or two he should be able to stand minimally as a good backup for the next few years. Maybe seeing Brissett let the ball fly it will give him inspiration to get back out and try letting it fly like him.

This too. 

8 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

He was coming off a bye week.  

He's taken 500+ reps. Imagine running a 100+ miler. And taking a day off and being told to do s marathon the next day. You couldn't. That's what I'm saying. It's the limitation if the human body. We were questioning it all year, why not now? 

My theory is that Sam is tired. Dude has the most reps in the league right now and his arm is probably just lagging. But he can't say that because this is his dream. He is going through his sophomore slump in his second 10 games. Dude will have like 2 seasons worth of starts. Not really but he's up there. I bet he's tired right now. 

57 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

You know what's somewhat fascinating though?  The last good game they had offensively was Seattle.  Howell was 29-44 for 312 yards, 3 sacks for 24 yards, 3 TDs and they were in the game to the end.  They ran the ball only 14 times for 68 yards.  They scored 26 points.  

 

I'll take that offensive output.

 

The second Giants game also had it's moments offensively, the issue was they turned the ball over 6 times.  Howell had 3 INTs, and there were 3 fumbles.  BUT, in the meantime, they put up 404 yards of offense.  Howell threw the ball 45 times.  They ran the ball 28 times.  

 

Then the last 3 games happened:

Dallas, they ran the ball. They actually came out trying to run the ball.  First 2 plays were runs. The second drive featured a number of runs.  They tried to be a much more balanced team.   They got wholloped.  

 

Miami, they tried to run the ball.  They actually ran it 28 times to passing it 24 times.  That didn't work out so well.

 

With the Rams, they tried to run but they really couldn't early.  It wasn't until the Rams basically sat back and said "do whatever gets you 5 yards" when they could do anything.

 

I think they've morphed back into the Turner offensive philosophy of run the ball and take shots rather than run an up-tempo quick game, get the ball out quickly.  I'm not sure why.  I wonder if it's because that's what Ron wants.  

 

I actually don't think a run game would have helped them yesterday.  I think what would have helped them is to get back to what was working, lots of quick passes on early downs, short and intermediate throws and move the pocket, and then run off of that.  When they've been at their best, that's what they've done.  

 

I think in trying to protect Howell, EB is actually doing him a disservice.  It feels like so many more of his passes are in known passing situations.  And with this OL, that's a loss almost 100% of the time. 

 

The other thing, they seem to have given up trying to get a first down on 1st and 2nd downs.  They're always trying to get to 3rd and short.  Instead of going for a first down earlier.  

 

And then when they get into 3rd and short, they take shots.  

 

I get that I've been a longer-term EB defender than some.  And I don't think he's an imbecile.  And WHY I think he's messing up is opposite of others.  I think they're running altogether too much to try and take pressure off of Howell when it's actually putting more pressure on him, because they're just not that good at running the ball. 

 

 

 

I think the keys to the running game are BRob and the FB. When they're both playing I think it can do well. And provided a alternative in the passing game and protection for Sam. 

10 minutes ago, profusion said:

 

Absolutely. Howell is not the reason this team was a failure. For much of the season, he was just about the only good thing happened with it. For all his flaws, he got so little help.

 

I just hope, for his sake, that whatever's going on with him right now isn't permanent.

I wish we had a running game yesterday with BRob. That would have been different. He had no help. It was all Sam until Jacoby came in. Then it was all Jacoby. We need a running game. 

2 minutes ago, profusion said:

Whoever coaches Howell next (and wherever it is) will have to rebuild his confidence and fundamentals somewhat. He looked much sharper earlier in the season. Too many of his throws have been off, lately, and his decision-making seems to have suffered.

 

It's entirely possible he'd be better off with a change of scenery, leaving aside what's best for the Commanders.

This is what is going to happen. Unfortunately because he was a 5th rounder he's not seen as valueable, but he has talent. He just has to stay prepared and take advantage of his opportunities. Thats why I like Nick Mullins and Gardner Minshew. Minshew is now on an 8 win team. Right now if they try to put this all on him and say that the fact that we lost because he couldn't rise above all the losing this org has cast upon him, that's a lot. 

This season for Sam is feeling like Patrick Ramsey, and I feel like he will be forgotten between Taylor Heinicke and Jaylen Daniels. Yesterday's game was just....weird. Yes if you look at the boxscore it looks like he had a bad game, 

11 / 26, 1 TD 1 INT, 1 Sack, 

But let remember that second drive of the game where we drove down the field and got to the 12 yard line, and went for it on 4th down but couldn't convert on 4th and 1 because the ball was tipped. That was a good drive. There was a beautiful scramble by Howell for 13, another pass by Howell to Terry that was called back because of a hold by Leno. Another pass to Terry.

What we could see this drive was that there was an intent to get the ball to Terry. It seemed like 1 out of every three passed that Sam attempted was going to Terry. That includes the ill advised interception that Sam threw that was a pass thrown where he had an open WR right in front of him but opted instead to go look for Terry who had THREE guys around him. 

Then there are the sacks. Lets first talk about the comments. He said that he wanted to get the ball out quickly. That was in his Wed comments. EB didn't like those comments. That kinda sat with me because it shows that he's not comfy in the pocket. He is quicker to scramble. And he has good legs to scramble and create plays, but that means that WRs have to do different things.

Could he have done those passes that Brissett did? I am telling myself that he could have. But at the same time, Brissett hasn't been abused by this line the way that Sam has, so he has more confidence to stand there and deliver it. Sam may have rushed it or not set his feet, or seen "ghosts". So I really don't know. 

The beautiful thing was that he did make some plays like the plays that I mentioned earlier, the one on the sideline to Terry the was called back by ref that shows that he will take some shots even if they are not the ones that Jacoby took. But like I said. I think he is either entering Ramsey era or maybe even injured. Don't be surprised if he goes into a medical thing soon. 

15 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Here are your Super Bowl Winners in the past 35 years (which btw, aint the modern NFL, the modern NFL is basically the PI and QB hit restriction league of the last 20 years or so), but anyway:

 

1988-1989: Joe Montana- 3rd rounder

1990: Hostettler: Phil Simms team, he was a top 10 pick. 

1991: Rypien: Day 3 pick equivalent

1992-1993, 1995: #1 overall Aikman

1994: Steve Young: USFL $50 Mill man (like 250 mill or so today), hell yes he would have been top 5. He was a supplemental first by the horrific Bucs at the time. So yeah, easily top 5 pick. 

1996: Brett Favre: 2nd Rounder

1997-1998: Elway, another top 5 guy

1999: UDFA Kurt Warner

2000: Dilfer: High Comedy top 5 guy

2001: Tom Brady  5th round guy.

2002: Brad Johnson: Day 2 or Day 3? I forget which.

2003: Tom Brady again

2004: Tom Brady again

2005: Ben Roth: Top 10 overall guy. 

2006: Manning: #1 overall guy

2007: Eli: #1 overall guy

2008: Ben Roth: Top 10 guy again

2009: Brees: 1/2nd round turn pick.

2010: Rodgers: Expected to go top 2, dropped to pick 23 or 24

2011: Eli: #1 overall guy

2012: Joe Flacco: Mid 1st guy

2013: Russell Wilson: day 2 guy

2014: Tom Brady again

2015: Peyton, #1 guy

2016: Brady again

2017: Foles: later 1st round dude if memory serves

2018: Brady again

2019: Mahomes: Another high first

2020: Tom Brady again

2021: Matt Stafford: top of draft guy

2022: Mahomes: Another high/mid first guy

 

What's funny about this, is that two things make it really funny looking: Tom Brady, and the QB's in that five year time period between the Post Elway Beginning, and the arrival of the '04 QB class to join Brady's dominance of the league. 

Brady, and that window alone account for nearly every single non 1st rounder QB. There are a couple that fall outside of that zone, but they're basically Wilson's a decade ago, and some weird stuff in the late eighties and early nineties. For instance, do you consider the Giants Super bowl about Jeff Hostettler? Or about Phil Simms who basically ran that team throughout the entire Bill Parcells era? To me, I give Hostettler the performance, but I give Simms the season. 

 

What matters when you arrange ---- like this, though, to me is how your building your evidence, and whether you're basically loading the dice for the result you want. For someone who wants to emphasize QB's don't matter, you go further back in time, and you focus exclusively on Super Bowls. Then you get a load of Tom Brady (nearly half of the QB's who played in super bowls the past two decades alone) boom, you get your result. Go back further, and you have Joe Montana, Rypien, and Hoss doing the work for you from 1981-1991 with only Phil Simms sticking out as an exception. Boom, win your argument.

 

I prefer to use Final Fours, because you get more sample size form that. You get 40 different QB combinations possible for 20 years. So a 40 performance sample size largely since the rule changes went through. When I've run that sample, you get about 75-85% of QB's playing in Final Fours carrying Blue Chip to mid 1st round draft capital.

 

It depends upon how you set up the argument. Even the guy talking about the past 35 years loaded the dice of the argument, he incorporated dissimilar era's, than tweaked the zone of where QB's were selected in round 1 to shrink how many QB's actually won titles, and really, is that what fans want? Yes and no, but honestly, what fans really want is to contend, and win as much as possible, Bucs fans would gladly trade 2002 to the Raiders, if they could get a Ravens period of contention, rather than the 1999-2003 run they had. To me, be honest, don't load the dice, use nuance, and what do you get? 35 years, and of the teams, who were lead by blue chip caliber QB's even taking into account Brady's? Simms, Aikman, Steve Young, John Elway, Ben Roth, Peyton and Eli, Aaron Rodgers, Flacco, Mahomes, and Stafford. Those guys account for half the wins: 18 of them. Now you can quibble with how blue chip they were? Flacco wasn't, and Rodgers was projected to go by #2 for everyone which is part of the reason the league tweaked who they called in and how they handled players that had to sit for hours when they thought they'd just have to sit for minutes. But regardless, the story of the last 35 years is really, primarily 1st round QB's, Tom Brady, and 1 off winners. Simple as that. 

 

I prefer my "Final Four" evaluation system because it opens things up more to guys like Brees, Rodgers, Wilson, the Ravens in general etc, basically teams that consistently made deep runs, and there you get how it works, and it is pretty straight forward. About 3/4's to 4/5's of contenders are helmed by elite franchise QB's, usually drafted high but not always, and about 1/4 that are flash in the pan types (Hostettlers, Foles, etc). 

 

Go get that QB, I'd rather bet on the blue chipper, than the teams that are usually flash in the pan types (Ravens, Niners, and Bucs squads of the last 30 years are the primary exceptions to that, helmed by Flacco and Lamar (the latter is elite of course, Kap, Garop, and now Purdy, and the Bucs with King and Brad Johnson) because its an easier build. The Bucs, Ravens and Niners had to nail practically everything else, and have superb coaches and quality FO's to have a chance-that's nailing everything. Mediocre FO's and solid but not elite coaches can win with great QB's, it's hard to hit on QB's, but I'd argue its even harder to hit on literally everything else, which is what's necessary to build a sustained contender that has a league average type QB. 

The problem with this argument is that it's just comparing SBs. I love SBsv and it's definitely the ultimate goal but it shouldn't be the definition of a winning season. For example. We were saying that making the playoffs would be good this year. That's a much lower bar. Now we can't ask that same question because many top 5 and top 10 QBs have made the playoffs so you'd have to look at something like

What's the dropoff in expected career winning percentage for a QB by their draft slot pick. 

I'm sure that's a stat somewhere. If not I can calculate it from pfr. Thing is. It is assuming that winning is a QB stat. But that's doing nothing more than what's already going on with the top5 and top 10 stuff.