Thinking Skins

How is that for a better understanding?

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Maye's upside translates best to the NFL based on a combination of his traits, character, and experience.

Upside and character and maturity are things I can't look at. I hope Caleb has those things. I haven't seen enough of anything other than numbers to judge anything on this stuff. 

4 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

I think the likely scenario is us taking Drake Maye (most likely) or Jayden Daniels.  While not impossible for us to trade up, the Bears probably will not be willing to trade that first pick given how good of a prospect Caleb Williams is.

That's possible too. I had already done Daniels. I think my draft picks favorites are

1. Trade

2. Williams

3. Daniels

4. Maye

But its becoming

1. Williams

2. Trade

3. Daniels

4. Maye

I'm not high on Daniels or Maye. 

While I'm

15 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Its not about who is better right now or who was more productive in college. Its about who has game that can translate to the NFL and who has the upside to grow into a top 10 QB and to me that's Maye when you factor in his age(he'll only be 22 at the start of his rookie year, which is a huge advantage), his elite physical traits, his character/coach-ability, and his experience.

First, could you understand that? 

I was mainly writing to myself. I tried to make it more legible but I never have an audience for my math writings so I never know who understands these things. 

On 12/13/2023 at 2:35 PM, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

So one of the measurements I started using on Twitter to grade and distinguish QBs is what I'm calling the WOW moments in college. People were hyping Daniels and comparing his numbes to Burrow and I was quick to correct them and say, no Burrow set the college world on fire and had a lot more WOW moments passing the ball. And I was told to restrict it to Burrow's first 12 games because Daniels had only played 12 as well.

 

Burrow had 1-6, 3-5, 2-4, and 4-3 TD games. That's 10 games and 41 TDs, kinda big time. (4.1 TDS / game when he's on) (He also has 3 rushing TDs)

Daniels had 1-6, 1-5, 3-4, 4-3 TD games. Thats 35 TDs in 9 games, not on the same level as Burrow.  (3.8 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 7 rushing TDs)

 

Maye's two years are 

Maye22 0-6, 3-5, 1-4, 3-3, TD games. That's 28 TDs in 7 games by Maye. (4 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 7 rushing TDs)

Maye23 0-6, 0-5, 2-4, 1-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs 3 games by Maye. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 9 rushing TDs)

 

Looking at Howell's last two years are not nearly that impressive. 

Howell20 had 1-6, 0-5, 1-4, 4-3 TD games. That's 22 TDs in 6 games by Howell. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 5 rushing TDs)

Howell21 had 0-6, 1-5, 0-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs in 3 games by Howell. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 10 rushing TDs)

 

And just for fun (kinda boring and shows why he was Mr. Irrelivent)

Purdy18 had 0-6, 0-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 10 TDs in 3 games. (3.33 / game when he's on) (He also has 5 rushing TDs)

Purdy19 had 0-6, 1-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 15 TDs in 4 games (3.75 / game when he's on) (He also has 8 rushing TDs)

Purdy20 had 0-6, 0-5, 0-4, 3-3 TD games. That's 9 TDs in 3 games. (3.00 / game when he's on) (He also has 4 rushing TDs)

Purdy21 had 0-6, 0-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 10 TDs in 3 games. (3.33 / game when he's on) (He also has 1 rushing TDs)

 

So if I were going by just the draft reports I would probably take Howell behind these guys and not think twice about it. But now that we have Howell in the building and know things about his character and humility and the fact that he can lead an offense in the NFL and that he has the work ethic that matters and the durability so much more about him, that matters. I have questions about Daniels size.

 

But the wole Brock Purdy being an MVP and building around Sam Howell is an active debate on Twitter and its got people from Kurt Warner and Cam Newton to joe schmoes talking about who is worthy to be called a franchise QB. I think the draft process is too built around the player himself and not around the player fitting into the system. I think its great to get a player who can "make all the throws" and has the athleticism. but it doesn't mean didly if you don't have a LT and guys who can catch. and a defense who can hold the lead. 

So I was talking to my my dad this morning about the draft and the likely scenario of us taking Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. So we were talking about the analytic I did on WOW plays on certain QBs and I was thinking of this post. I had expanded on it to include Williams and Maye (not included above) and others. Somehow, either I didn't post it or I don't know what happened. 

Anyway here it is. 

Caleb Williams

Williams21 had 1-6, 0-5, 1-4. 2-3 TD games. That's 16 TDs in 4 games. (4.00 / game) (He also added 6 rushing TDs)

Williams22 had 0-6, 3-5, 2-4, 3-3 TD games. That's 32 TDs in 8 games. (4.00 / game) (He also added 10 rushing TDs)

Williams23 had 1-6, 1-5, 1-4, 3-3 TD games. That's 24 TDs in 6 games. (4.00 / game) (He also added 11 rushing TDs)

And here's Drake Maye

Maye22 had 0-6, 3-5, 1-4, 4-3 TD games. That's 29 TDs in 8 games (3.625 / game) (He also added 7 rushing TDs)

Maye23 had 0-6, 0-5, 2-4, 1-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs in 3 games (3.667 / game) (He also added 9 rushing TDs)

Just for fun, here's Daniel Jones

Jones16 had 0-6, 0-5, 0-4, 2-3 games. That's 6 TDs in 2 games (3.00 / game) (He also added 7 rushing TDs)

Jones17 had 0-6, 0-5, 0-4, 0-3 games. That's 0 TDs in 0 games (0.00 / game) (He also added 7 rushing TDs)

Jones18 had 0-6, 1-5, 1-4, 3-3 games. That's 18 TDs in 5 games (3.60 / game) (He also added 3 rushing TDs)

This is a simple metric that I'm playing with that I like to see in terms of a QBs ability to take over a game. I'm not looking at film or any of the other things like yards after catch and that stuff. I'm just looking at does the QB do things that fill the stat sheet enough times make me go WOW. I will later add interceptions to this because its a factor, but in this first version I didn't want to because I wanted to see (like Speilman said Bout Caleb Williams against ND after a bad first half) they if could carry their teams back. 

This doesn't mean anything, but I think that Daniel Jones has such a putrid WOW factor and some other guys have some good ones. I'm trying to get some time to actually write the analytic to do this so I'm not spending so much time doing it by hand because I think it is a fun exercise.

Doing this was a fun exercise because because it made me feel better about Williams the player over Howell the player in college. That 6TD game number comparison and 5TD game number is significant. What is it? 2 6TD games for Williams to 1 for Williams, and 4 5 TD games for Williams to 1 for Howell? And it just continues. 6 4 TD games for Williams for Williams to 1 for Howell. Its not that Howell was bad, its just that Williams was really as Heisman trophy winner. I respect that. 

I'm wondering what kind of questions they're asking him. We know he's the best. I'm wondering how serious he is. He said no to interviews last year. Is likely to quit? Will he miss SF? How often has he been on the east coast? Does he like snow?

Look at the Giants. They just ANNOUNCED that Daniel Jones is going into the year as the starting QB. Now I was laughing all year with my Giants fan friends (you know I love some low round QBs) about how Tommy D was their new QB, but now I just hang my head in shame. I mean we all do. Are they not even going to try for a QB to get better? Jones was crap. And they are letting Barkley go. 

I'm not trying to turn this into an around the NFL thread. But with a legit GM, I think we can really get somebody to come in and see what needs to be done and say (hmmm) Howell isn't Broken, just like Goff wasn't broken, or just like Cousins wasn't broken or just like Tua wasn't broken. Or a number of other examples. I know there are a lot of other examples of lower and late round picks that he has similar stats to, but that's on Howell to show the new guys that he's worth investing in. Jones has the benefit that (1) he's a first rounder, (2) he has that contract (3) he has been there so many years and people there already love him. 

9 hours ago, Conn said:

Howell for all intents and purposes does not exist anymore. Kirk Cousins is a memory. Fields does not exist for us except as a variable effecting the QB we can draft at #2 after Chicago makes their decision. Bo Nix does not exist for us. Michael Penix does not exist for us. McCarthy does not exist for us. 
 

I think it’s perfectly fair not to be as high on Williams, Maye, and Daniels. I’m learning a ton reading and watching the breakdowns I’m seeing here from people I agree with and people I disagree with. But the reality is that we are about to watch this franchise draft one of those three players. Likely it’s Drake Maye. Discussion of unlikely corner case trade scenarios when teams in our situation just do not do that, feels kinda pointless to me. 

Edited 8 hours ago by Conn

This is your world. 

Maybe you're right, maybe not. Some of us like to play out other scenarios and use logic to say what if something else happens. 

Just like I said "what If Mayhew is not fired at the end of the season" and people got all up in arms like I was doing something illegal. Its cool if you don't want to entertain these scenarios but this years draft class is not like the Luck & RG3 year or the Tank for Tua year (which wound up also having Herbert) or the Burrow year. Instead we have 3 first round QBs who a lot of people are not sold on. Then when you look at age (Caleb Williams - 22, Drake Maye - 21, Jayden Daniels - 23) and contrast that with the guys in the NFL with experience (Howell - 23, Fields - 24), its not as easy a decision as you make it. If it is for you then cool.

There are two options. These conversations are happening all over DC - in bars, on Twitter, at workplaces etc. If EXTREMESKINS will not be a place for whether we keep Howell, trade for Fields, then I think that's sad but I'll just move the conversation back to Twitter. But you're being naïve to think that nobody's having this conversation. Just like people were naïve to think that it was naïve to think we wouldn't keep Mayhew and EB (even for a few days). 

32 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

I have sort of made peace with the fact that there is a good chance the team goes into 2024 with a new starting QB, however part of me thinks it's being dismissed to quickly the fact that a new GM,HC,OC etc etc.....plus any upgrades in player-personnel might actually benefit Howell as a QB as well.  What happens if they hit camp with Howell battling the QB draft pick and Howell just absolutely blows the other guy out of the water?  Would a QB being picked as high as #2 sitting for a season or perhaps until Sam might regress during the season sit well with the fans or is the shiny new toy too big of a potential draw to have hold a clipboard for any amount of time?

I want to believe in that too, but I'm the back of my head I'm saying yeah but what it it's not true. Do you really want to bet that much on a guy who collapsed at the end of the year? For whatever reason? 

At minimum I think we need to bring in competition. I don't think it's Brissett. It could be Fields. He's a former first round pick who's having great days, and bad days. Both Johnson and the guy in Houston had times with QBs. So maybe they could help Fields, or maybe Howell. 

The thing that's a problem is, this introduces a QB controversy and we don't need that. I don't want to ship Howell out of here cause honestly I think he's better than Fields and everyone in the draft but people are going to clown me for that. But he didn't perform and players are going to take sides. 

Thing is. That's going to happen if we take a QB at 2 no matter what. 

But how does Daniels season look compared to Fields in college? I'll admit that I'm not a college scout and I look at analytics more. But I like Fields stuff in college more. But that's based on the numbers. 

Then there's the size. I like Fields size cause he's 225 and 6'3 as opposed to whatever Daniels is now. Maybe he's 220 but I've seen 185 and 215 and we'll have to see at the combine if he comes. 

And aren't they the same age or Fields younger? That's what makes me think of trading for Fields. I wouldn't give him a Jones contract but just try to give him something reasonable and have him come in as the number 1 with Sam as the number 2. 

Honestly right now I'd

1. Trade that second round pick for Justin Fields (he's 24)

2. Maybe trade down a few spots and draft Daniels

3. Stay where we are and draft Daniels

4. Draft another guy in the 2nd. 

14 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

I agree and think they will lean OC guy.  The interesting part of this years candidates is there's only 3 hot OC names (Johnson, Smith and Slowik).  All the others are DC's

What about Frank Smith?

5 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

yeah, he was too inflexible. He needed to run the ball more. It was getting way too much. I was trying to be understanding but after that Giants game and even after the Giants 2 where were doing well running the ball but had some fumbles, he seems to always go back to throwing it aggressively and putting everything on Howell's shoulders.

 

And I'm not out on Howell but my problem with him is he is not consistent enough. So he will have a good half like against SF or Dallas 1 or Dallas 2 and then melt down. Part of that is EB putting too much on his plate, part of that is the OL, but dems the breaks. He needs to put on his big boy pants and start making decisions.

 

If I let my son drive my beat up station wagon as his first car instead of my SUV, the lack of cruise control and a a working radio and a bluetooth and all that jazz are not things that I want to hear him tell me as reasons why he's a bad driver. 

 

There are about 10-15 other teams in the league with bad offensive lines. and another 10 or so with second or third string QBs. But I'm coming in here and on Twitter and defending Howell's bonehead interceptions just about every week. Its frustrating. 

I'm thinking about something Lynnell was pointing out on overtime last night. 6 of the 8 candidates at the time are defensive guys. Regardless of how I or fans feel about EB, I wonder if Harris is thinking of keeping him as OC. 

Maybe they're putting more of this year's problems in Howell than EB. 

More thoughts about Howell. 

So I think its all but certain they're picking a QB at 2. But for Howell, I'd be wanting to know what he's doing this offseason. Who is he working with to correct his flaws. There are guys like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, Brock Purdy, etc who are all on the shorter side but don't have Sam's problems with sacks, ints and batted balls. Or some have had them and overcame them. So if I'm Sam I'm going to them or their QB coaches or their former QB coaches or somebody on their team who can help to understand how to get better. 

I see Baker Mayfield in particular had a season similar to Sam where he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs and 40 sacks. 

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Finlay (granted not always the most plugged in) said he heard Peters has a strong shot here and he's heard he has real interest in this job.

 

 

 

Wonder if @Thinking Skins checked out on him, yet?

yeah, he was too inflexible. He needed to run the ball more. It was getting way too much. I was trying to be understanding but after that Giants game and even after the Giants 2 where were doing well running the ball but had some fumbles, he seems to always go back to throwing it aggressively and putting everything on Howell's shoulders.

And I'm not out on Howell but my problem with him is he is not consistent enough. So he will have a good half like against SF or Dallas 1 or Dallas 2 and then melt down. Part of that is EB putting too much on his plate, part of that is the OL, but dems the breaks. He needs to put on his big boy pants and start making decisions.

If I let my son drive my beat up station wagon as his first car instead of my SUV, the lack of cruise control and a a working radio and a bluetooth and all that jazz are not things that I want to hear him tell me as reasons why he's a bad driver. 

There are about 10-15 other teams in the league with bad offensive lines. and another 10 or so with second or third string QBs. But I'm coming in here and on Twitter and defending Howell's bonehead interceptions just about every week. Its frustrating. 

My thought with Howell and I've been saying it all over Twitter is that we need more consistency. I can't pull for him to be the man if he's going to be throwing multiple pick games. But at the same time I remember when Kirk threw the 4 Pick game against the Giants and I was done DONE with him, thinking he was done with himself and just couldn't get the pics out of his head. And he has gotten a good career for himself. But I need Howell to fix this like Kirk has. 

That said, What I was thinking this morning on those two deep shots to Terry was that maybe Howell was told by coaches or WRs to work on his touch on deepballs so he started throwing them shorter to try to get better placement (is my wording making sense?) And as a result he is not getting the timing down with the WRs. That could be a big way of saying he's thinking too much. That first throw he should have just aired it out, but he cold have thought that he has too much arm to air it out for that pass cause it was just like 30 yards so he had to taper it some. Same with the second one, Plus both he had to get over a defender and around a DB. 

Still, every QB has to overcome problems and I'm tired of becoming the violin swan song for his interceptions (what had happened was). So he just needs to do better. Sam DO BETTER. 

On 1/2/2024 at 3:58 PM, Rufus T Firefly said:

Personally, I have long hoped that we would clean house on the FO this week. You could interview a few people who aren't currently employed by teams. Dawn Aponte is someone who could be on the radar. I have always like Thomas Dmitroff, and while I don't necessarily want to give him the job, I'd definitely love him for an assistant GM spot with a first timer GM. Louis Riddick you could talk to just because of local ties and Rooney Rule requirements. 

 

Then you inform teams that you want permission come Monday to start interviewing other candidates (the Horitz, Peters, Halaby, etc group). It would give you a bit of a head start. Not a huge one, but something. 

 

If we are really hiring GM first and then Coach, and especially if we are interviewing a lot of people for the GM spot, time is actually something of an issue. Getting even a small head start would be a positive. 

 

More importantly, what's the reason not to do it? Do we really need to pretend there is something that could happen against Dallas that will effect whether or not these people are retained?

Told yal. Mayhew is gonna be held on. for a while. 

14 hours ago, Riggo-toni said:

Parham is the starting TE for the Chargers. Not that he's a world beater, but considering the alternatives I can't believe we let him go...wait, Ron had full personnel control and he couldn't play LB... nevermind.

I was such a big fan of his. I hated when we cut him. He had 4.5 speed. But I think we were in love with some guy from overseas. What ever happened to him. 

What if.... And this is all just a theory so bear with me.

But what if Harris knew he couldn't do anything as far as hiring, so the max reps came from Harris when he was he was hired. What is Harris called Ron a week before camp and Ron called EB to do it. Then we see it play out through the season. We saw how it impacts our draft picks and Sam's body and our running game and stuff. But EB has kinda said or had sped up his development, and maybe he's talked with Harris about it. 

So now we've got EB and Sam that have advanced forward in this pass first system. I fully believe that a lot of these pics are not on Sam. Like the last one against NY2, the last one against Dallas, the last one against SF, heck I can't remember the ones in the nugget Buffalo game but that was his only bad int game for a long time. 

Anyway, just a thought

57 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The Bears are going to be like the Cardinals were on sterioids when they dangled the idea that it was extremely hard call as to riding with Josh Rosen or drafting Kyler Murray.

 

Of course the speculation serves them.  Smart teams (not like us) try to amp the value of their trade asset.

 

No doubt Fields is a better player than Rosen.  And Fields is playing better as the season is progressing.  But I still think the Bears draft a QB.  The money variable being the kicker.

We've got to stop these comps of Fields and Howell with Rosen. Rosen had horrible stats over that rookie year, no desire to play, and couldn't even show that he belonged as a backup in this league. 

Both Fields and Howell have showed that they are starters in this league. I get the "on steroids" stuff, but its still not the same conversation. Its more like the Brees conversation (in SD) because its at least the same neighborhood (replacing one QB who may be good but his time to prove himself is running out with another young QB). Otherwise there are a handful of comps that I'd throw in that I'd say are better than Rosen because they just are better.

Or maybe we can think about the strategy of SF where they have a QB and continue to build around him. 

2017, they trade for Jimmy G but he gets hurt and they have CJ Beathard start 5 games (going 1-5). 

2018, they have Jimmy G but he's hurt again and they have Nick Mullins who stars 8 games goes 3-5 and has a 65% completion 13/10 TD/INT needs to be improved though. But he's a rookie. 

2019, they don't draft a QB though. they stick with the guys they have and go 13-3, with Jimmy G going playing 16 games. 

So what did they do in the draft instead of going after QB with a twice injured Jimmy G? 

2019 - Bosa, Debo Samuel,

2018 - (T) Mike McGlinchey,  Fred Warner, 

2017 - George Kittle

Like Doc Walker likes to say, are the people at the bottom of the standings the ones we want to be mimicking? 

27 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Their DC is as good as gone. He's done a **** job this year--that secondary has been bad all year.

That org is being run badly. They were ranked number 1 in so many categories. Then they hit road bumps and panicked badly, Now it seems like they're collapsing. if they get rid of their coach they may bring in a whole new system that doesn't fit Hurts. 

1 minute ago, ntotoro said:

 

I don't think anyone wants Mayhew to have a sniff of anything in this draft.

I don't like to defend Mayhew like he's Beathard or something but he is not Ron. He has had to act as a leutienant of Ron lately. What he did in Detroit is different than what he did here and what he did in SF is different than what he did here. He has a nice resume to scout players and pick players. Much more than any of us, he lives football and can pick players and do this stuff.

The problem becomes that he has the title GM but he is really second in command behind Ron so "they" picked Forbes, or Martin called Forbes or something like that, but Ron is the one who really wanted Forbes. 

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

EB must be here 2 years to qualify for a comp. pick. 

OK, that's what I thought. 

I also think its more than 90% likely that Mayhew if fired on January 8th along with Ron, but I do wonder about who else goes with him. I've got to think the scouts stay. But Mayhew has been doing a lot of scouting himself. So thats a lot of paperwork / scouting that is lost there.

And from what I hear its not the scouting that is bad, its that Ron is not listening to the scouting (similar to Dan). I don't know if I read an article or heard on the radio that Ron overrode scouts who told him that Gonzales was better than Forbes. Same as him not wanting Kyle Hamilton, or choosing Davis over Darrishaw. 

Well, if we want Ian Cunningham (I point him out because he has connections to Shen and I think he will be the guy) and some of the guys who are on non-playoff teams, we can get him immediately after the season, and may not really lose anything draft wise. But we do lose what Mayhew does know about our own players. But if we want to fire Mayhew on 1/8 and then hire somebody from say the 49ers (say Adam Peters), that may be a long wait because of how well they're playing. 

That means that it hampers not only our draft (see senior bowl coming up soon) but also our Head Coaching search which we want to be inspired by a GM. 

As I write this, I'm thinking that we hire a GM from a non-playoff team like the Bears (Cunningham) who gives us time to analyze the crop of assistant coaches. Then he, Harris and Shen will look at all the people available and go and hire MacDonald from the Ravens after they've had enough time to get to know each other and lay out a foundation of what the Commanders will be like going forawrd. 

How long until Mayhew is fired? 

I was thinking about this on twitter. GMs are normally not fired until after the draft. Do we wait with MM? That's the curteous thing to do right. Or do we go ahead and clean house? Like I posted elsewhere, do we wait with EB to see if he'd hired elsewhere, or do we give him walking papers? I don't know if we'd get a comp pick because I've heard he needs 2 years here. But that's from radio guys and from other radio guys I've heard 1 year. So who is right? 

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

That really wasn't my point.

 

My point is to question whether or not he's actually a viable subject matter expert who knows what he's talking about.

 

You listen to SMEs in order to get their, wait for it, expert opinion.  But if the guy didn't draft a good QB, gave up on Keenum who led the team to the NFC Championship game, only to sign Kirk to a ridiculous contract, is he really an expert?

 

Just because you had a job doesn't mean you were good at it.

 

It's the same argument I use with Jay. Yeah, he was a head coach.  But he was a bad one.  So why is he considered an expert on anything?  Spielman was a GM.  But not a very good one.  Why is he considered an expert, specifically on picking a QB as a GM, when he failed at that rather miserably?

See, I disagree with this. I have a PhD and whether you value my work since, most people will hear that and say woah and sit and respect it and ask my opinion on things. I'd think the same about a former NFL GM no matter his reputation. And you quoted a pretty good rep without a QB. QBs are hard to find. 

Like we say about players, they are the top of the top 1%. These execs are the same. You don't think other companies don't want to come to NFL jobs too? There are 32 openings for NFL GM jobs Max, and maybe 3-10 get open a year. That's slim pickings. Yes there is some stuff like hiring family but there is also stuff like people rising through the ranks of being a scout. For so long I wanted that to be my life's story - the Charlie Casserly life story. I don't think you can knock a Speilman for the reasons you're knocking him,