HTTRDynasty

The wait next off-season will be much more brutal:

Breakdown starts at 4 minutes.

I’m with you. I don’t need to see a ton of sacks this season for me to appreciate his rookie year. As you mentioned, the ability to chase down RBs backside will be big too, not to mention he’s a good run defender on the strong side as well. But the thing I’m anticipating most with him is the ability to chase down Dak, Wentz, and to a lesser extent, Jones when he starts. I can’t even count how many times I would shake my head in disgust as Carson and Dak effortlessly eluded our pass rushers on crucial downs to pick up key first downs with their legs or throw back-breaking deep balls when our guys just miss getting them on the ground. That now becomes much more difficult for them with Sweat chasing them down. Even if they try to roll out to Kerrigan’s side, Sweat should be hounding them backside. I might legitimately shed a tear the first time I see him chase down either of those guys on a roll-out for the sack.

I like the focus on making sure Montez stays low at 1:44 in this video.

Yeah, I think agility has a pretty significant weight. I'm not sure about Ford's agility drills since he didn't run at the combine, but Clowney graded out as just "OK" there in his RAS. Though they did both run impressive 40's (Ford at his pro day). I think it makes sense for agility to be a strong factor, considering these guys aren't running 10 or 40 yards in a straight line. Clowney, though an elite run defender, is not the pass rusher the Texans thought he would be (I'm sure their fans agonize over what could have been if they had drafted Mack instead), which is why he still hasn't been paid. And Ford was just passed over for a second contract in favor of the Chiefs trading for Frank Clark, whom the formula identified as a Force Player, even though he was drafted in the mid-rounds. I'd say, with the names I mentioned above, this is a good example of the formula getting it right.

Yeah, it's much more of a cautionary indicator on which players not to draft (i.e. Fowler over Beasley) than it is on which players to draft without the good tape to go with it. It checks a box though, so I'm happy to see Sweat make the list. It was originally the "Waldo" formula produced by a poster on another board, but he's kind of fallen off the map, so his buddy has been running a modified version of it ever since. Seems like he's lost interest a bit though, since he hasn't published any articles on it since 2017, though he does still post which players were FPs before every draft.

Sweat is 1 of only 4 "Force Players" in this class: This link goes in depth on what a force player is and who has been one in the past: http://settingedge.com/movement

I love Kerrigan. He’s been our most consistently good player for most of this decade. However, just comparing stats across the board doesn’t do those other guys justice. Von and Donald have been facing double teams on a consistent basis these last few years, and they are still wrecking game plans. Watt, when healthy, does the same. Kerrigan has never really been that kind of player. He’s a clear tier below, imo. Nothing to be ashamed of, since there are only a handful of those guys every generation.

I considered Mack, and he’s the best all-around player IMO. The complete package. I just don’t think his pass-rushing is as consistently elite as the others.

Aaron Donald Von Miller JJ Watt Everyone else is a tier below.

Ignoring all the Raiders stuff, this is a good blend of highlights on what Sweat brings in each phase of the game.

You're being extremely nit-picky on most of those. Drew Brees is one of the most accurate QBs in NFL history and I've seen him make the same kind of "inaccurate" throws. It's impossible for every throw to be right on the money all the time. Some of those throws you listed was due him throwing it to a spot; or trying to squeeze it in between defenders like at 5:36, where you want to err on the side of caution and miss short rather than throw too high and have it be intercepted. The only bad throw to me was at 6:02, which, while it was a 50 yard pass (that's not an easy throw to hit a 4.3 guy in stride), it was one he should definitely have the arm to make accurately without needing to take a few hitch steps and unloading.

I counted 3 that were underthrown. The one at the end (7:20) was right on the money though. Beautiful throw. But back to the underthrown balls: I've heard it said from analysts over the years that it's hard to gauge a college QB's deep ball accuracy, because these guys don't get a lot of time to work with their WRs, which makes it hard to develop the chemistry you need in games. I would imagine it's even harder for a 1 year starter to get in enough time with his WR's (and Haskins had 4 studs he had to develop chemistry with) to shine when it comes to deep ball accuracy on the big stage. I think Haskins will be fine as he gets more time to get used to the speed of his WR's. If he improves his footwork, that would help a lot with deep ball accuracy as well. Bottom line: it's not a major concern for me.

If I had to choose a position to get decimated by injuries with Alex Smith at QB, it would be WR. Not really worried unless/until CT25/AD/Reed start missing games.

Can't believe we let Sudfeld go, then went and spent a pick on Hogan... Smh. Here's Sudfeld from last night:

Just saw that we spend the least amount on the WR position in the league: https://overthecap.com/positional-spending Though we spend the 2nd most on the TE position, so I guess it balances out.

It seems like you think I don't like Smith as a player. I do. I'm simply pointing out he is one of the most conservative QBs in the league when it comes to throwing in tight windows (which do include 50-50 balls btw), which is something Gruden has been on record as being frustrated with Cousins for not doing. Yes, Alex extends plays more often than Kirk. I'm talking specifically about tight-window throws here though. This is something Gruden wanted to see more of from Kirk. He won't see that with Smith, though I agree that he will probably see more easy completions than he did with Kirk because Smith will be able to make off-schedule plays and open up windows. I'm not saying it's a bad thing that Smith does not throw a high percentage of tight window balls. I'm simply saying it's odd that we traded for a QB who is even less willing to do it than Kirk, given Gruden's vocal criticism of Kirk in this aspect. By the way, if you read the article, it does include the stats you are so desperately looking for, such as completion percentage for tight window throws: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000915500/article/dak-prescott-matthew-stafford-among-top-10-tightwindow-qbs

Why does the stat have to include completions? It's a stat that measures how willing a QB is to throw into tight coverage. It doesn't need to only include completions IMO. That's a fair point on guys extending plays. I'm sure that contributes to a lower percentage of tight window throws for some of those guys. I agree that Cousins doesn't throw into tight windows because he is scared he might get picked off. And it was obvious that Gruden was extremely frustrated about that. I just think he's deluding himself if he thinks Alex will be more willing to do it than Kirk was. It already sounds like he is, in fact, deluding himself, based on this quote:

Match made in heaven? Both the QB and the WRs seem to be really efficient throwing and catching the ball in confined spaces, respectively. Though it's kind of odd that Gruden was so vocal about Kirk being unwilling to take chances throwing to confined spaces these last few years, yet we trade for a QB that had the 2nd lowest rate of throws like that among all QBs... EDIT: Found this tweet. Guess it isn't all that much of a drop-off. Still interesting that we would opt for a QB that is liable to frustrate Gruden even more in this particular aspect - an aspect he was extremely vocal about with Cousins, probably Gruden's biggest criticism of our former QB.

Doctson get a nod in this PFF "receivers by route tree" breakdown: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-the-top-nfl-receivers-by-route-in-2017 Here at Pro Football Focus, we keep track of everything that happens on a football field. Every player on every play of every game. Thanks to that, we’ve got a tremendous database just loaded with football goodness. We’re going to dive into that database and take a look at which receivers were the most productive last season on individual routes. The metric we’re using to rank these players is wide receiver rating. Simply: WR rating is the passer rating that a quarterback earns when throwing to that receiver. Some context here, these are the numbers each receiver saw on the very basic of our route tree definitions. At PFF, we have multiple modifiers for routes that are broken off, combination routes and specialized routes by design like a ‘back-shoulder go.’ The numbers below are just based off the basic design and execution of each route, not inclusive of combination routes, specialized routes or modifiers. Comebacks (min 5 targets) – League average wide receiver rating: 75.4 1. Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings – 112.5 wide receiver rating There were only 303 targets thrown to comeback routes last season, only 16 receivers saw at least five in their direction. Thielen led the group in terms of WR rating, and he was just one of three receivers to produce a rating of at least 100.0. The Vikings’ receiver hauled in 5-of-6 targets for 66 yards, with four of those five catches resulting in a first down. 2. Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders – 104.2 3. Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins – 102.5 4. Brandin Cooks, New England Patriots – 82.2 5. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 82.1 ‘Go’ routes (min 10 targets) – League average wide receiver rating: 66.0 1. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs – 132.6 wide receiver rating There were 888 ‘go’ routes thrown in 2017 with 25 receivers being targeted at least 10 times on the route. Hill was one of two receivers to produce a WR rating of at least 130.0 on flys. The speedy receiver hauled in 7-of-15 targets for 353 yards and three touchdowns, five of his eight incompletions were deemed uncatchable. 2. Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions – 130.2 3. Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins – 128.5 4. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers – 122.9 5. Robby Anderson, New York Jets – 107.6

Nvm. It's back.

Looks like the youtube stream is down. Blacked out.