wit33

I’m currently delving into the concept of anticipatory throws in football, exploring their frequency and importance in games. I’m at the early stages of self-learning and would appreciate if anyone could share examples of NFL quarterbacks consistently making anticipatory throws during games. Starting with an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, I watched a 3-minute video showcasing 18 completions he made in an AFC Championship game, which many regard as a flawless first half. However, I struggled to identify a throw that exemplified anticipatory timing, although I acknowledge I may be mistaken in my understanding. Hers the three minute clip for those willing to indulge: https://www.chiefs.com/video/every-completion-from-patrick-mahomes-near-perfect-first-half-chiefs-vs-bengals I admit my bias and recognize that there may be conflicting definitions of what constitutes an anticipatory throw among those here, but I'm open to learning and being corrected.

it’s a trap, ruuuun!

It's fascinating how there's now a growing acceptance of the idea that Daniels has the highest floor and is most ready to make an instant impact. The narrative surrounding elite dual-threat quarterbacks is evolving, which is pretty cool to see. Now, the focus is shifting towards questioning the ceiling of dual-threat quarterbacks and less the floor, which is becoming a popular topic of discussion.

The way analytics are often pushed by the masses is lazy. They should be used as part of the overall player analysis, but too often, mathematical metrics are presented as absolute truth without proper context. They're then used as a major reason to dismiss a player in fan forums. This has been a primary argument against Daniel, while the prospect you support faces similar scrutiny. I understand you apply nuance and context to explain how Maye can overcome it, but you fail to provide Daniel with similar consideration. The presentation lacks depth, and there's been a lack of effort to break down the sacks and provide personal context. Some in the media have, like Sheehan who I’ve heard provide some personal context to the stat that I appreciate. What are some ways you feel he can overcome this and not take too many sacks? Injury risk is certainly a factor, but personally, I couldn't care less about injuries. The goal is to maximize players' primes and keep moving forward. As long as there's no PCL, MCL, ACL tear, or Achilles rupture, they can remain effective into their early 30s.

I completely understand the concerns about durability, and it would be reasonable for a front office to factor that into their decision-making process. However, I wouldn't base my decision solely on injury concerns when choosing between players. It's disappointing that mastering the baseball slide wasn't prioritized earlier in his youth, as it's a fundamental skill for QBs. Ultimately, in the NFL, one must acknowledge the risk of injury and proceed accordingly; there are no guarantees with any player. IMHO

Twitter analytics have evolved somewhat into salacious rumor mill fodder, reminiscent of the gossip magazines of the '90s. While analytics are often associated with intelligence and are relatively new, their acceptance by the media and public remains fairly high, albeit showing signs of losing steam. However, I find that a good amount of the analytics I encounter are lazy and incomplete for the most part. Most own my exposure of analytics is most on this board, so I don’t cast a wide net of exposure lol. Your believe he will get sacked a lot in the pros?

I despise these statistics when they're weaponized without context, but I'll entertain the surface-level discussion regarding pressure to sack percentages. How concerned are you about Drake Mayes having a sack rate within 1 percent of Daniels'?

It would be fascinating to hear quarterbacks discuss their struggles with reading pre and post-snap situations, and why some excel at it more than others. NBA players often provide more transparency about what sets the greats apart, but there's a lack of similar openness in the QB position. I'm not sure if for example JT O'Sullivan has discussed why he struggled or couldn't break through in the NFL, but delving into that aspect would require a lot of courage and vulnerability. It's possible that some quarterbacks have discussed it, but it's not widely known. This type of dialogue no laymen pompous fan can make claim to understanding. I wonder if the association of elite quarterback play with mental acuity makes it challenging for quarterbacks to acknowledge that another QB might be smarter in simpler terms.

The plate includes Daniels as well, right?

I made zero mention of Daniels and wasn’t attempting to make it a comparison game. I simply presented the information and was curious what your thoughts, especially as it relates to the ‘breakout age’ discussion you posted about. Completely own the breakout age is a sham on the surface— no conclusions made. I acknowledge that my posting history on this subject is pro Daniels and not as much for Maye, though I'd be perfectly fine if they selected him. I do appreciate a lot about Maye as a quarterback. I can find tough stretches for Tom Brady as well, not what I was attempting to do. I dislike some stats on a whole and they especially lack value at times at the collegiate level due to their being 350 plus division one schools and a huge gap in talent in some games. I thought it was interesting that a third of his games to end the season and what you and most described as a regression season coincided.

Yes we do. In 2022… In his last four games, he had 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, losing each game. Maybe it wasn’t just his final year that experienced regression?

Help me out… Questioning Breakout Age: However, I haven’t fully explored the idea of breakout age and upon initial consideration, it seems somewhat lacking in substance. Drake Maye’s Case: For instance, after just 8 minutes of research, I found that in Drake Maye’s supposed breakout season, he began strongly with 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his first two games against Florida A&M and Appalachian State. Maye’s Performance Decline: Yet, in his last four games, he struggled with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, losing each game. Despite this, many still regard it as a breakout season at a “young age.” Acknowledging Bias: While I do have a preference for Daniels, I understand that Maye could still be a valuable choice if selected by the front office.

Coaches typically aren't fans of using "potential" as a substitute for "project" and understanding that miracles can happen, but the odds of players correcting their natural inclinations and body mechanics is a tough, uphill battle that's unique to each individual and their personal journey toward improvement. Most players don't refine their mechanics, yet many are genuinely hardworking and nice young individuals.

Respect! ✊ I'm much like you, but I believe there are many ways to win at QB, and for me, most of it relates to the cap hit. But that's a whole other conversation. I love that Drake Maye is uber-aggressive with throwing down the field, which is close to my number one prerequisite for a pocket/mobile QB to have any shot at impacting games beyond QBs 8-35 or so. Russell Wilson belongs on our side. Lol No doubt, the 50-plus-year history of the NFL doesn’t have a lot of run-centric QBs winning SBs, but I like to include the final 8 or even final four, and the run-centric QB is littered all over the place over the last 15-20 years. I’m open to any and all pathways to achieve some sort of elite performance or success at the QB spot. For example, I was the biggest Alex Smith supporter here because I believed his intangibles were elite, and overnight he changed the culture within the locker room during his time (AP deserves credit as well). I'm intrigued by any path that creates a potential avenue to escape average or mediocrity that permiaties throughout the league each and every year.

Uh oh... whenever this Cooley comment comes up, Bruce Arians' book is bound to get some mention soon! Jk. Also, come over to the good side and welcome Jayden Daniels—I know you've got it in you. The uber-elite athletic QB is about to break through, just like MJ did for shooting guards in the early 90s. Ahead of the curve!

Let’s goooo! Good post.

Is there a possibility that off-platform throwing is being conflated with the ability to throw outside the pocket or on the run? I've seen numerous throws of him delivering while on the move from outside the pocket. I'm trying to bridge a disconnect here. I agree that he doesn't utilize off-platform throws much and lacks creativity behind the line of scrimmage when extending a play side to side. He's more of a throwback in the sense that he'll sprint or drift to the sideline rather than dance around to buy time. Hes more deliberate in his movements and choices when extending plays it seems; wants to leverage his elite burst and great speed whenever possible.

Those Buccaneers highlights though 😳 He sat behind Joe and learned from Bill for five years. Imagine a bozo coach in today's game keeping him as a backup for five straight years. Russel belongs to us; his elite dual threat ability relative to his peers during that time was the primary reason he was able to have elite impact at times years 1-3 of his career. Joe Burrow is out to debunk the significance of this stat, particularly when it comes to third-down sacks. Forget your QB who opts for check-downs or throws low-percentage passes to single coverage to avoid a sack, or what was once deemed acceptable—consistently throwing it away on third down! 😄

Embrace the future; after all, guards never won NBA championships until they did. It's frustrating that he can't slide; it's a significant drawback for a QB who relies on his legs. If he were able to slide, I'd have much fewer, almost no concerns about him getting seriously injured. And it's not something that seems very easy to pick up and learn. Such a game changer if a running QB or any QB has this mastered.

Acknowledged, establishing it as a hypothesis is reasonable.

Have you delved into this to uncover any truth or insight regarding whether the styles asked him to do completely different things? What if it was actually 26.7% different and 73.3% similar footwork? I'm not sure where the truth lies, but it seems like you're grasping for anything that might bolster your campaign to support Maye.

Absolutely love his aggressiveness, and this is a HUGE positive that I'll emphasize if he's selected. I'm all for the YOLO QB, especially if it comes with an elite arm, good size, and some ability to move around. I just want to highlight that this is one of my favorite aspects about him and why I believe he has a chance to break free from the 70% zone of the average QB that we see each year in the NFL. He also appears to believe that his aggressiveness is what sets him apart, which gives me confidence that he won't yield to coaches who try to play it safe to protect their jobs and put a governor on him.

To be clear, many don’t ever fix this area of their game but do get to space of being able to operate an NFL offense. For example, Derek Carr (ExtremeSkins favorite), Alex Smith (MY favorite), Carson Wentz, Russel Wilson, Ryan Tannenhill, Kyler Murray all struggle to organize their feet while in the fire (the pocket). Yes, all for their own reasons, but some of these guys from afar appear to be great hard working family guys that you would think be able to “fix their mistakes”. Just random names off the top, many others. It’s a mutha bleep to change natural patterns, processes, body mechanics when under duress. I 100% own it’s an easier journey to improve mechanics in a comfortable setting or when plays on schedule, but 85% of the NFL can do that, nothing special—that’s competence. Development definitely matters, but I speculate if you examine Drake Maye’s high school footage, you might find that he played similarly back then. I’ve never actually watched any of his high school clips, so if someone wants to prove me wrong, I’ve given them an alley-oop. If a quarterback has been playing the same way from their youth until now, a lot of that behavior becomes deeply ingrained. When faced with pressure situations, they tend to resort to problem-solving strategies that have served them well throughout their football journey. It all boils down to natural inclination and relying on the physical traits they've developed over time. I'd bet he's been hearing this since day one on the UNC campus—for three years straight. Just to be clear, I'm not saying this to disparage him at all. In fact, I believe that over 90% of quarterbacks struggle to fix these types of mechanical issues when under pressure. The majority of NFL quarterbacks can drop back and set when the play is on time, especially if their first read is open. A three-month timeframe seems outrageous to me. Following this logic, it would imply that he should have everything fixed with the help of QBs and specialists between the end of his college season and rookie mini-camp. He might understand what he needs to work on, but expecting it to be fully addressed within just three months is unrealistic. Just to clarify, I used to think Mahomes had terrible footwork until the past year or two. So, I believe you can still be great without having the same type of precise footwork in the pocket as Dan Marino, Tom Brady, or Jared Goff. It's going to be a real battle. It's not just about wanting to fix it—every QB probably wants to fix their issues. But for him, it'll likely require being extremely dedicated to the process. The wild thing is, being dedicated and committed to the process still doesn’t work in most cases. I'm not claiming to be an authority on this; I'm just drawing from my experience as a basketball coach and my work in behavioral health. Working through these kinds of challenges takes a lot of time and effort. It's definitely not insurmountable, but addressing football trauma like this will demand a significant amount of effort to establish a healthy baseline and competence in footwork. Some QBs might go on to earn hundreds of millions of dollars, start for over a decade, and be genuinely nice individuals, yet never fully transcend beyond competence. And that's not necessarily a bad thing; competence holds immense value, especially at the right price. How's footwork not a significant issue? It's literally one of the main separators for today's pocket/mobile QBs. I must admit, someone could call me out for discounting injury concerns for Jayden Daniels, so I'm not immune to ignoring issues others don't. Decision-making is often directly tied to footwork. What you're concerned with here aligns with what you say you're not concerned with. I'm with you relating to rooting for him to throw many completions to Terry. I have no issues if they draft him and find myself in a good position of being satisfied with both options, but I personally prefer Daniels.

Impressive claim! No response necessary, but that's quite a bold assertion. Too bad he struggles with accuracy, haha. So many variables, some known and some unknown, come into play when evaluating the qualities of a great passer/processor/leader, and Maye's consistency in accuracy is questionable. I'll admit, I've grown weary of quarterbacks honing accuracy at the professional level, so I tend to favor selecting a first-round pick with exceptional dual-threat capabilities, as it immediately impacts the game under a rookie QB contract. Or guys who are deadly accurate. I'm not against Maye per se, as some have pointed out, he can impact the game with his run ability, which could aid his immediate impact and development. However, the prospect of drafting someone at #2 who struggles with accuracy is daunting, much like the concerns some have about selecting a thin dual-threat QB. Maye's getting credit for being 230, a nice little round-up. Just imagine the Daniels crew rounding his weight up to 217. LOL! 230 does sound cool though So many draft day decisions concerning QBs have been influenced by factors like size, arm strength, and the belief that accuracy issues can be fixed. This whole emphasis on age and seasons played seems like a bit of a sham to me. I believe it really boils down to whether a QB can establish competence at the position, something more QBs in the NFL do than they're given credit for. But the true test lies in whether they can rise above the average (the 70% of starting QBs) and impact games at an elite level. It seems Daniels has shown competence at the QB spot, but who knows if he'll progress beyond that? The reality is, even the most hardworking and talented QBs sometimes struggle to break out. I'm not saying it's a sure thing either way, but it feels like Daniels has the higher floor between the two. We'll need to delve deeper into each to determine their ceilings. What's the basis for your assertion that it's easy and achievable within a three-month timeframe?I strongly disagree; it's much harder than some people make it out to be.I often liken changing natural motor mechanics as a passer to adjusting shooting form in basketball. From my experience, most people struggle to change their shots, and those who succeed often take a long time. They have to be incredibly dedicated and somewhat obsessed with the process to make it happen. Moreover, those who do manage to change their shot usually believe deep down that the change is necessary; it's not something they do just because someone else tells them to. It's often overlooked how challenging it can be to convince someone that they need to change their mechanics, especially when they're poised to be a top 3 pick, have likely secured generational wealth for their family, and have experienced significant on-field success. Even individuals who come across as amiable in interviews may resist this process, and it's not necessarily right or wrong for them to do so. It's a highly nuanced and layered situation. On day one, you can establish an elite run game and dynamic play-action with Daniels at QB; that's the potential baseline. No certainties, but it looks probable to me that with the front office and coaching staff in place, they'll be able to achieve competence from day one and potentially excel in both the run and play-action game. For transparency purposes, I believe Maye has similar run qualities to Daniel Jones and his legs can be leaned on a bit to aid growth and competence as an offense.

Just stats, but the dude seems solid from the middle of the field. Yet some feel, he struggles with those areas and can't seem to throw effectively in the middle? I fully recognize that I lack a spectrum to assign value to these numbers, but I do see a significant amount of production in the middle of the field.