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CommDownMan

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Posts posted by CommDownMan

  1. Arizona at 3 could pick Harrison or trade to highest bidder.   I think jumping them is probably most important.   With Vegas at 6, I think you'd be in good position to get some solid picks and still be in position get one of Harrison, Bowers, top 2 OT. 

     

    Depends on if they want QB obviously.   Less ideal there since at 3 they're talking the last of the top group most likely. 

  2. 3 hours ago, MrJL said:

    Bears play the Cards making them losing out unlikely

     

    Depends on which Bears and Cardinals teams show up.  But if the Bears do lose, we'd be in position to jump Arizona as things currently stand, so 5 would still be in order.

     

    edit:  looking at Arizona and Chicago, I'd rather Arizona win this one.  Bears have Atlanta, GB and Browns.  Potentially winnable.  Arizona has 49ers, Philly and Seattle.  

  3. 46 minutes ago, NoVaSkins21 said:

    Can they move up after today’s results?

     

    Nope,  but Arizona has a higher SoS, so if they can finish today and win one more, gives a chance to jump them by seasons end. 

     

    Edit: technically we will look like 4th with bears being 4-8 vs 4-9.  But if they lose on our bye they take it back.   Jets and bucs as well,  meaning we could be at 7th if these teams are at 4-9 next week. 

    • Like 2
  4. 2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

    What sucks is that our SoS is going to shoot up. Every team we play from here on out will likely finish over .500 except for the Jets. So even if we lose out, we'll probably lose tie breakers.

     

    On tankathon, the '?' near the SOS, says using all 17 opponents.   

     

    Some changes will happen, but giants playing the eagles and losing should change the SOS calc the same for both teams.   With a lot of common opponents, I don't think it'll be massive changes.  (At least that's how I read that statement).

     

     

     

    Screenshot_20231128_125345_Chrome2.thumb.jpg.c7db7f8d68e4dd896c0b53b62bb505b8.jpg

  5. 7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

    I do like the idea of getting future 1sts though. They tend to be undervalued, especially by teams making desperation short term moves. Plus its pretty fun rooting against a team because you want a high pick from them. It'll be fun for example rooting vehemently against the Bears tonight and that's only for their 2nd rounder. Imagine if we had their 1st...

     

    There used to be a general rule that future picks were downgraded a round from a value perspective (draft pick value has changed, so I don't know how true that is now).  For teams that are not ready for a deep playoff run, getting future picks at a 'discount' is well worth evaluating.  

  6. The trick here (even when talking about Chase) is who is doing the evaluating.  When we selected Jamin Davis, Darrisaw was available.  Looking back and "re-doing" Kerrigan and Watt doesn't mean much if they weren't going to pick Watt either way.  I'm not saying they wouldn't, but it's easy to look back and see the better choice.  

     

    I want a solid talent evaluator that has a plan. 

     

    If a QB is coveted that isn't a big improvement from Howell (based on new GM eval) and they rank the top 10 OT closely and expect the first 10 all go by pick 40, trade back from 5, get pick ~15 and use some of that ammo to trade back up to ~20 and get your bookends.  Fuaga, Mims, Latham currently projected around here.  Still likely end up with a extra 3rd from starting point, so another 4 picks in the 40-100 range.  

     

    However, if MHJ is there and is rated well above everyone else, get the blue chip player and hope you get what you need in the second round.  

     

    I get why people would be for/against trade backs, but with a good evaluator of talent, I hope to see movement in both directions as it makes sense.

     

    edit: Darn work got in the way and SIP already, more eloquently, made this point.  Haha.

     

     

    • Like 1
  7. 2 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

    We’ll want Chicago and New York and Arizona to win as much as possible; just in case.  Only game we might win is the Jets; though Aaron is targeting that game for a return.

    I only want 2 bear wins.   Enough to have commanders jump in the first, but keep the best 2nd we can still get. 

     

    Edit: I mean 2 wins. 

     

     

    • Thumb up 1
  8. 1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

    Maybe he means that Chicago has a better chance of winning some games down the final stretch because their schedule is weaker 🤷‍♂️

     

    Absolutely.   It helps out chances of them winning,  just not tiebreaker.   He may very well may be saying that,  I didn't read it that way.   

  9. 1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

     

     

    Commanders having a higher SOS remaining means the gap will widen and the Bears will definitively have the tie breaker.  Easier schedule means they were the 'worse' team of the 2 and get the higher pick.  Seems like Ben is suggesting it's helpful to have the harder schedule and if thats the case he is wrong on that as well. 

     

    Edit:

    https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/remaining_schedule_strength

     

    According to this we're 6th hardest remaining and Giants are above us.   I thought that may matter, but tankathon SOS factors all 17 games already, so this won't change to much like when it changes from current values to this point.   

    • Thumb up 1
  10. 45 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

    Pretty damning that the two teams with 1at and 2nd picks have a total of 4 wins. Three curtosey of Washington.

     

    Technically Bears are not 1 (and idk why they put a 3-8 at 2 over a 2-9 team...)

     

    Either way add to the disgrace we got 2 of our wins in close games against what I see as the #2 and #3 and it paints a pretty bad picture.

     

    Edit: And #8.  Denver has turned it around a bit, but were really struggling when we played.  We've really only beaten a few really bad teams. 

     

    Screenshot_20231124_083603_Chrome.jpg

  11. 3 minutes ago, PerryMason said:

    Yep.  Thats all i want is one win on thanksgiving once every 3 or 4 years.  

     

    Then why bring up Synder winning a Thanksgiving game.  Who gives a ****.

     

    They hired an analytics guy and made moves that the team never made in synders tenure.  Does that mean they'll be amazing?  No.  But hardly just buying beers and having parties.  

  12. 10 hours ago, Ball Security said:

    It looks like the players change later and they change the team slots in real time. Turner has stayed at seventh since their last mock. If that makes sense.

    If you select the board tab,  that big board matches almost exactly,  so what you say makes sense.   

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