CommDownMan

A few names I could swap out, but this was an exercise to get 4-5 mid+ range FAs, 5-8 lower priced FAs and see how the cap would look.  I think LB/DE/S/G are really good spots to aim high in FA.  

FA:

Defense:

I think we’ll see more here FA.  Mostly based on what is stronger at needs.

Josh Uche (3/24) –

Dante Fowler (1/3.5)

Ahkello Witherspoon (2/20)

Azeez Al Shaiir (4/36)

Xavier McKinney (4/44)

I’m not expecting Winfield Jr to hit FA, but I’d make some changes if it did happen.

Offense:

Michael Onwenu (4/56)

Juaun Jennings (2/8) yeah RFA, but I’d take the shot if Right of First Refusal is used.

Ertz (1/3)

ST:

Reaves (2/5.5)

Someone Good (2/4) – Lots of options, just find a good one

Cut Candidates: 1

TE Logan Thomas (6.5mill savings)

This is probably deemed a fairly heavy FA signing period, but with cuts and only small changes from AAV for year one (eg McKinney 8/10/12/14), the cap remaining is about 40 million (and 100 million-ish for 2025).  Another 10.3 mill for draft picks per https://overthecap.com/draft  I’m still 4 players shy of a full 53, and would expect a few UDFA and 2-3 mill 1 year type deals.  Effective cap won’t change much, as other contracts drop off the list, so ~25 mill left in cap even after all this.  

Draft:

Pick 1.2: QB.  Not going to say, but I’m be mind blown if this isn’t a QB.

2.36: I see a trade with a team (New Orleans for this exercise) traded for 2.45, 5.149, 5.167

2.40: Cooper Beebe OG.  If this goes down, I'm probably finding a way to replace Wylie.

2.45: Xavier Legette: Bigger receiver, nice compliment to what we have.

3/3/4/5/5/5/6- Lots of options and I've gone down the rabbit hole enough tonight.  (OT, TE, DE, LB, CB, S, RB listed below to spread the love).

Offense: 24

QB: Draft Pick 1.2, Howell (2)

RB: Robinson, Rodriguez, Draft Pick (3)

WR: McLaurin, Brown, Dotson, Jennings, Legette (5)

OT: Leno, Daniels, Onwenu, Draft Pick (4)

OG: Paul, Cosmi, Beebe, Wylie (4)

OC: Gates, Stromberg (2)

TE: Bates, Turner, Ertz, Draft Pick (4)

Defense: 22

DE: Henry, Jones, Uche, Fowler, Draft Pick (5)

DT: Allen, Payne, Mathis, Ridgeway (4)

LB: Davis, Shaiir, Draft Pick, UDFA (4)

CB: Witherspoon, St-Juste, Forbes, Martin, Draft Pick (5)

S: McKinney, Forrest, Butler, Draft Pick (4)

Special Teams: (3)

K: Someone (1)

P: Way (1)

LS: Addington (1)

47 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I can’t see it being a premium pick, they really dont like his cap number. He’s making noise already that he’s potentially moving on.

Looking at stats (and general contracts over time), he'd be looking for more per than McClaurin's 3 yr / $68.3 mill extension.  Even if just $23 million per, you would have $46 million tied to you're top 2 receivers and be down draft capital.  If you skip an extension, I'd imagine the noise would continue and he'd be moving on next year.  

With extension, that's 19% of the cap, dedicated to 2 players.  Unless they traded Terry, I don't think you'd find a scenario it makes sense.  

22 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

I’ll quote his again,

 

some talk the 49ers might struggle to keep him, unless they put a first or second round tender on him. No team will match that, but they have limited cap space. Was he an UDFA ? That limits the right of first refusal tag.

 

Anyway, for those that like him, his designation as a RFA might not automatically have him being retained by SF.

22 hours ago, Conn said:

That’s very interesting info, I hadn’t seen that, thanks for passing it along. Definitely worth keeping an eye on 

Was curious what the implications would be after this comment.  PROJECTED values of $4.6 (2nd round tender) to 6.4 million (1st round tender) and it'd be a 1 year deal, so all that would hit year one.  He was a 7th rounder it seems, but even the Right of First Refusal is $2.8 mill.  Although, it's fair to assume at least 1 team would be willing to ditch a 7th rounder for him and to a contract that would likely be tough for 49ers to match.

https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/san-francisco-49ers  Currently, $3.7 mill over (effectively 11.7 mill over needing 8 new players to hit 53).  Cuts from this don't look super valuable to gain cap space (McCaffrey, Greenlaw and Juszczyk the only guys with 4+ million cap savings and they aren't getting cut).  Some restructures to kick down the road would help, but with draft picks needing some $$ and only 45 contracts (meaning at least 8 new signings), it would seem they have a few tough decisions to make.  They do have 12 draft picks to fill, which is late round heavy, that may be where most of the 8 new signings come from.

As mentioned in a previous post, I generally don't know much about coaches outside of our own, so I haven't really spoken much about Quinn.

I was thinking about the 2013 coaching staff we talk about that had Kyle Shanahan, McVay, LaFleur, O'Connell and McDaniel with a final record of 3-13.  The team was run in a way that it really doesn't seem like success could be had by anyone.  Even while fresh in my mind, there is no part of me that thought Rivera would be this bad.

Having Peters in place, along with a traditional structure really is a decent starting place.  I'll decide on Quinn more on the results then anything else, but at least it appears he has better support than previous regimes at this point.

2 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

If there’s any truth to Johnson’s demands being related to money, control of the roster for offense, etc., I’m glad that turned our guys off.

 

I feel like we’ve all played the “I have a number” game in our careers where we say that we’d take X position for X amount of money.  That’s never a wholesome place to start to get the best out of someone.

 

4 minutes ago, RVAskins said:

 

To start,  not a loser mentality culture. 

Wastes his time posting a fake article and then says this...

I worry about the younger generation.

First , I want to see if players like him as much as the quotes.  This team is a mess and while coaching changes will help, I want to see a FA period where players want to sign here.  If players wait a year or 2 and we do mostly draft additions while facilities are made better, I think any coach would be at a disadvantage.  So ask me again in April.  Haha

For all the people wanting the Lions to lose, so we could seal the deal sooner....I blame you.  Haha

32 minutes ago, Hitman#21 said:

 

Thanks! Only so much that can be said.

 

If it happens I'll be told "everyone knew" and if it doesn't "you made it up". But this stuff is very fluid and the stuff that comes out usually is only 30% of it.

 

I've been here for a while and just wanted to share with all those who bleed B and G.

 

No link. 

I'm really sad you didn't put a link pointing to your original post.  Haha

17 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

So is Slowik deemed out of the race. Didn’t he have a couple of strong interviews with us ?

ABC news said he was having an in person interview soon, but I haven't seen it anywhere else.

4 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I wonder if Harris's wife designs uniforms like the old owners wife did?

I mean, I could do better and I mock my own fashion choices. 

8 minutes ago, @DCGoldPants said:

its nice to have what seem like good options. Johnson, MacDonald. Both coached well yesterday. I trust GMAP to hire a guy who vibes with the bigger vision, has a good list of coaches to fill out their staff, and can help get a coordinator on the other side of the ball who can own it. There is a lot of them to do immediately, probably starting with joining the deep evaluation of the talent here and helping GMAP's staff identify FAs they'd like, along with getting ready for the combine and who they want to meet with.

Agreed.  The talk of Ben Johnson to Seattle, would mean we could have MacDonald at this point.  I get why people may rather Johnson, but there are top line options and we should get one of them.

All of a month ago, I knew pretty much nothing about other coaches, cause I generally don't care outside of what Commanders are doing.  I'm not going to pretend to know which one is truly the best choice.  After how things seem to have fallen with Peters, I'm hoping we can continue to hit home runs.

2 minutes ago, BleedBNG said:

Lions Achilles heel.... bad tackling

Pretty solid stiff arm as well though. 

3 hours ago, Ball Security said:

The Samuel contract confuses me. On over the cap, he has a 4.8M cap hit. I understand his 24 season was a “fake” season on his contract and that he is a FA. But does that mean we’ll have $4.8M of dead cap space for him? Or is it conditional based on his next contract?

The 12 million Signing Bonus was spread over 5 years.  If we look at the last note from sportrac contract details, the last 2 years are voided 4 days after SB and the fake/void years accelerate to 2024 dead money.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-commanders/curtis-samuel-21781/#:~:text=Curtis Samuel signed a 3,dead cap value of %244%2C800%2C000.

IDK if a new contract could be worked to pushed/spread out further since it is signing bonus related, but I don't know of an example where that happened.

4 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Michigan will not only have a HC opening but they will need to fill most of their coaching staff as Jimmy probably takes them with him.  It'd be pretty wild if he won a SB with the Chargers after winning a CFB championship.  Wow.  

I was thinking one brother win the national championship and the other could win a Superbowl in the same year.  

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

The bottle's 1/2 full or the bottle's 1/2 empty. I choose full.   

I'm not saying this because of who is going to be coaching here, just speaking to KDawg's post.  

At the end of the day, the bottle finally isn't always empty here and I'm happy to just go with it.  If some crazy reason it isn't Johnson, its not going to be some Zorn-like ****er after no one else wanted to be in DC.  My cup is full and there will be no gripes from me.

6 hours ago, KDawg said:

Remember when Jim Fassell was our head coach and it was done? I do. 
 

When was he our actual head coach again?

 

**** happens, folks. Use words how they are supposed to be used and it avoids the semantics bull****.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33518865/rb-jd-mckissic-flips-buffalo-bills-returns-washington-commanders-two-year-deal

I'm way late by like 5 pages, but it makes me think of this.

1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Would the Rams get extra draft picks if Morris goes HC?

It's weird to me a GM selling his DC, even if Morris is worth it.  

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Or are you saying that someone else will trade up for a QB at 2. Maybe. 

Nope, I'm saying trading back from the higher 2nd round pick (#36), not 2nd overall.

I see names like Bo Nix, J.J. Carthy going early 2nd a decent bit.  

There are a decent number of teams Falcons, Titans, Jets, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders that likely are in the Penix maybe range and no other QB range.  

Falcons (43), Titans (38), Jets (no 2nd), Vikings (42), Broncos (no 2nd), Raiders (44).  Clearly the teams with no 2nd don't count in my original statement, but Vikings/Falcons/Raiders trading picks to jump Titans (Giants even) for QB could add at least one pick (probably 4th or 5th+6th).  Being 40/44 still gives Commanders a good shot at Xavier Legette and Cooper Beebe (for example).  I see this as the way to add to the 9 total picks if they go that route.

50 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

What does this mean? Nothing really, but I'm thinking about the idea of trading back and what kind of value we can get. We currently have 9 picks. 1 first, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 1, 4th, 1 5th, 1 6th, 1 7th.

 

Trading back can get us what? 3 or 4 more picks. That can be cool if it can get us more of a top heavy draft like Minnesota's was where they had more hits. But if we start having more 6th and 7th rounders, those are where the special teamers come from. Do we need a dozen of those picks? I think we're better off taking the elite talent and signing the premier UDFAs. 

I think QB at 2 is still pretty likely.  I guess the team could surprise us, but I'm sticking with that for now.

I could see the higher 2nd pick having a QB that teams 10ish spots back would want to trade up.  I think something like 2 (36) for 2 (~46) and a 3rd or 4th/5th would still put Commanders in decent place for 2nd round.  4th rounder to start day 3 is the 2nd pick, so more time to work out trades and could probably add 1/2 picks in the 5-7 round range.  I think we'll see at least a little movement and have more than 9 total drafted players when it's all said and done, but I don't think it'll be using the overall #2.  

I would be curious the approach on future picks.  I don't know how much Peters teams went in that direction and will be curious if we'll see more of that now.

Just now, Redskins 2021 said:

This will be a big clean up job will probably take 2 year before we contenders.

The statement about fans seeing the difference on the field is step one.  Whether it's instant or 2 years, I'm ready to see a different intensity/approach.  

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

If we do end up hiring Johnson, how cool would it be if the 9ers and Lions met for the NFC Conference game?  Our new GM’s team vs. our new HC’s team. 
 

Would be even cooler if it’s a Texans / 9ers Super Bowl and we hired Slowik, but that seems a lot less likely.

 

Other option is a Ravens / 9ers Super Bowl with Macdonald coaching the Ravens defense.
 

Regardless, there’s a fairly good chance our GM vs. new HC’s teams will meet in a meaningful playoff game this year. 

It's like all these playoff participating organizations have something in common that we desire...  🤣

1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

 

When he released this in real time, I thought it was a throw away or a dangerous throw the defense could adjust to in the air.  The receiver stopped, stumbled back to catch, but it didn't matter as only 1 defender was in view and 10+ yards away.  Some was design, but that's also terrible defense.