CurseReversed

Random Draft predictions. Wft tries to trade up for Sewell if he slides. Saints trade up for Jones if SF doesnt take him. Patriots trade up for Lance.

The odds of what did happen are not the odds of what will happen. Full stop. This isn't a roulette wheel or a dart board or even a craps table. Its not random. It is humans judging humans. Not a science but a skill. Using this skill will lead to better results, which is why players chosen earlier will always be better. If that wasn't the case they might as well throw darts. It's not about whether or not A QB taken early will be better, its about whether you can judge a QB's chances of succeeding solely by a statistical model of how things played out in the past. It might be indicative at best but its not totally predictive.

I have done some intense research into the history of QB's and draft position and found that the hit rate on QB's drafted as the 5th, 6th, and 7th overall pick is basically 0% over the past 35 years. So picking a winner their is going to be nearly impossible. The stats prove it.

What good is that statistical model if your scouts are good at scouting qb's from a specific school or state? Or if some draft classes are better then others. If you like a guy in the 3rd, is he automatically going to succeed at a rate that is predicted by statistics for 3rd rounders...no. Its going to be how well you scouted him that will make the most difference. Of course players chosen earlier are more likely to succeed but its common sense and even though it can be statistically proven, its not a science. If I did a statistical model that showed QB's drafted in slots 21-27 or something random like that, never panned out, would that be a good indicator of whether to draft someone at 22 in any future year? No, I dont think so. There are limits to the extrapolation of these stats....

Wasn't there just some article that someone posted about how only one of the first round Qb's selected in the past..10 or 15 years...I forget how many exactly, were still with the teams that drafted them? It seems like finding a consistent winner anywhere in the draft is an outlier. All those outliers you named account for a lot of wins in the past few decades . Even Eli won 2 superbowls...two! Was it because he was a first round pick? Can you see how the statistics can be misleading? I think the WFT should try to get one of the top QB's in this draft, not because they are first rounders but because I think they will be good. But I also think it will be perfect NFL irony when one of the midrounders ends up being the best of this epic QB crop. Even if Mac Jones is the best at #3 overall, it will still be slightly ironic.

Why do any front offices bother picking QB's after the first round? Are they all just ignorant of statistics, or maybe just looking for only backups?

Over the past 20 plus years Tom Brady has appeared in 10 super bowls. Doesnt that make him the standard? How could the standard be the outlier at the same time? Is that too small a sliver of time? Who was great before Brady, Montana? Third round pick. Drew Brees, Second round. Who has been a winner more recently, Wilson? 3rd round pick. Are they all outliers too? I would argue that greatness itself is exceptionally rare, and is based on so many factors, that trying predict it on draft slot alone is over simplistic.

QB's don't grow in draft slots either. How could Tony Romo be the exception? Is he another outlier with Tom Brady? How many other outliers have there been, seems like a lot? Which QB's are the outliers and which are the standard nowadays? Is Mahommes the ony standard now? What about Watson, Burrow, Wentz? What has anyone proven to make this new standard fact. Sorry I just don't see it. You can get a winner anywhere in the draft, and its been proven countless times. Just like its been proven that your more likely to get a player you want if you have the first chance to pick them. Both things are true, simultaneously.

Very true, you really don't know until they play. FInding a late QB is not the same as finding a golden ticket. The draft isn't a lottery and the results dictate the stats, the stats dont dictate the results. If the chances of finding a late round QB are so long, why would any team even try? Seems like waste of a pick, doesnt it? Yet every year, teams who have offices filled with professional evalulators pick QB's all through the draft, knowing all the statistics. The draft slot, in retrospect, is just an indicator, one of many. You can go back through the stats and find tons of them. They are called correlations. Correlation is not causality, and every new player has to be judged on their own scale, with their own odds, that is what scouting is.

If the theory is that you need those elite physical traits to have long term success in the NFL, then Brady is not an outlier. Historically speaking, he is the standard. Brees and Manning won more and have been more successful then any of the prototype modern QB's and it was not that long ago to be irrelevant. There are plenty more recent examples. I understand things have changed, maybe it will be true that the era of greatness without certain tools is over, but its far from an open and shut case. I think that at a minimum it is more difficult to win now without them, but the formula for greatness is still a complicated one, and if you see traits that could be special, you go for it. Its only in hindsight that we see it as a statistical anamoly that these late round or long shot QB's make it. At the time it was insightful and brilliant when they were chosen. You might say that a guy like Wilson has the tools, but he was chosen in the 3rd for a reason. If he was coming out this year it would be the same story. I doubt we would be clamoring for him.

To be fair that statement is not necessarily true. Your going to hate this but... Tom Brady does not have those things that Jones lacks and he is still winning consistently at age 43. As much as this may seem an outlier, the truth is that there have been many great QB's recent enough to be relevant that did not have these top tier athletic traits. Brees, Manning, Brady, just to name of few. Even other guys like Ben and Russel have been successful without having the full physical tool kit. We see A lot of these up an coming QB's and say this is the new era, and the essential recipe, but besides KC and maybe Green Bay, nobody has really proved it. Allen had a Breakout year and I think he will be great, but we also thought the same of Carson Wentz once upon a time. The winning formula for consistent success for an NFL QB in this era is still based primarily around some traits that are not so easy to define or predict. Statistics show how hard it is to find them but it does not mean they arent still looking. Jones might have them and he might not, but to say that Kirk Cousins is his ceiling is kind of ridiculous IMO. There are plenty more variables in that equation.

I really don't know if there is truth to these rumors or not, but this smoke of SF wanting Jones must really have you worried that your surefire interpretation of Jones value is not as rock solid as you thought. Not that SF is the end all and be all of QB scouting either, but if they do draft him at 3, you got to be thinking...did I miss something? Elite traits are great, but if you look at the list of NFL greats, its a totally different list of elite traits they have. Now..those might be harder to project but we aren't football guru's either, at least I am not. It is a changing league and maybe I would take FIelds at 3 too, but I love Jones and If I could get him and another top guy I would do it.

I think the 49ers probably want Jones or Fields. The 3rd pick guarantees one of them but they will try and see how it looks on draft day and maybe squeeze a small trade back in and get one.

Bitcoin is just getting started. People will still be kicking them self years from now for not seeing it now.

Exactly. This would be my best guess at what their thinking might be. We really don't know what there confidence level is at LT but the draft will probably tell us. If they think Lucas was good enough or they think charles could be good enough, we will know because they will wait on LT in the first and go BPA..probably LB. If they go LT in the first, I trust that they have their reasons, and I would definitely support it. Personally If I had to guess, like you, I see them waiting on LT and going bpa/ Collins in the 1st and then banking on Lucas, Charles, or a later round guy to be good enough at LT. Then in 2022 they will have nobody under contract and can decide how they want to address it. If they are like me they are drunk on Zavens length and size. We have such an athletic and rangy front four, that is why we were getting so many batted balls. Adding Collins right in the middle of that is the very definition of adding to a strength and a key ingredient for an elite group.

I would too, definitely. Fitz would make me a lot more conservative in what I would be willing to give up, but if it makes sense they should still go for them.

I am a Mac Jones guy too and if he fell to 19 I think they should take him. But I think this is very unlikely. As far as trading draft capital for him or Lance, at this point, I am skeptical. Getting FItz changed the situation for me. He is different type of player then most of the other guys they were looking at in FA or trade. Most of those guys were reclamation type projects stop gaps or guys with potential who might need a second chance, guys who would come in and compete with Allen and Taylor but have no serious expectations. Fitzpatrick is a different animal. I expect him to have to compete just like anyone else, but he is much more of a win now type of guy because he is playing his best football right now. His window to be great might actually be next year and thats it. But how good can he be? Whats promising, is that he has it in him. He has shown on many occasions that he can play at a very high level and it might be worth it to see what he can do with a full draft slate of talent added to the team. If he fails then maybe they are back to square one but they might have a higher pick to show for it.

Yea , I really like all of those guys. If we could trade down just 6-7 spots and pick up a 3rd it would be perfect. For me I would Have to choose between Collins and Harris. If this team can find one of those truly great RB's that come out of college and just dominate right off the bat, that is SOOOO tempting. That is what really could put this team on another level more then any other player. But at the same time there might be other RB's that good later in the draft....

I cant remember the last time the WFT had the roster depth to be able to truly make BPA picks in most of the draft rounds. We seemed to always have a major hole or two that needed addressing. Its a great feeling. Arguably you could say that LB is the only position that they probably need to draft a guy in the first few rounds, but compared to years past, they are pretty flexible. As a hypothetical, lets say that the available guys to choose from at 19 are: Jaycee Horn Darrisaw Harris Collins Bateman Who do you think they should take in that scenario? Or are they all so close together that you try for a trade down later in the first, betting that one of them will still be there? Even if you can only net a 3rd in a trade like that, if you feel like these guys are all studs and one of them will last, you might be willing to take the risk. I am partial to Collins in this scenario but I would be happy with any of those guys there, which is why a trade down seems like such a good move. Especially if they really like some other LB's they feel certain they can get later. I do not think the WFT needs to draft LT in the first. They have Lucas on a good deal, and while he needs an upgrade, he is more then serviceable and a perfect stop gap while S. Charles and another 2nd/3rd round guy compete to take over in 2022. If neither of them work out you can try again next year. If Darrisaw is available at 19 with a bunch of other guys we like, its very tempting to pick him outright, but it also might be the perfect scenario to tempt a team behind us like KC to offer a good trade up deal. That might be a little to far back in the first for my tastes, but going back to the mid 20's could be perfect to still grab one of those guys an scoop an extra 3rd or more. Lots of fun possibilities to work with here.

Just a guess but wasnt C Mac out for a lot of the year? That would be a lot of touches that might have gone samuels way this year.

If they don't end up getting serious help at LB in FA, I'm guessing its because they have a few linebackers they really like in the draft and have a strategy to make sure they get one of them. Werner, Cox, Zaven could all be on the radar, and maybe a few other gems we dont know about.

and anthony harris and a long term deal for allen. then zaven in the first or cox in the second, and bpa everywhere else. That would satisfy my greed.

https://youtu.be/ZO8ySbCsmWc Just watched this video of Fitzpatrick vs the Patriots. He is really impressive in this game, this must be peak Fitzmagic. . If this is what he is capable of, even some of the time, then I am pretty excited to see what he can do.

I hope they go that route too. I just love the idea of another monster sized athlete roaming the middle of the field to go along with our ends. To top it if off usually guys with measurables like him have some red flag or weakness in their game that knocks them out of the top tier. Zaven doesnt really have too many weaknesses. Speed, size, productivity, Football IQ, leadership...really solid. He might need some coaching but he seems to be the full package. I like Jones more then him and maybe Harris but otherwise, he's my top want at 19 assuming nobody crazy drops.

Just making some guesses as to the mindset of the FO regarding draft and FA. I think the WFT is happy with the value they are getting from Lucas at LT in 2021 and while they certainly will be looking to upgrade at some point, this buys them some time to pick more a developmental tackle in the middle rounds that they can groom for 2022, as opposed to a day one starter in the 1st or a big name FA. I just dont see them drafting tackle in the 1st and sitting lucas when they have him on a bargain deal and his play was surprisingly decent. 2. I think its possible that the WFT has a player targeted with that first round pick that they think will most likely be there, and thus they can avoid having to fill that position with a big name FA. RIvera stated that they want to fill all their holes in FA so they can draft BPA and I think they are doing that, but at the same time there might be one position they might be able to skimp a little bit on knowing they are probably going to get their guy in the draft. My best guess and hope is that they are targeting zaven collins in the first and that they might feel safe enough with this pick to forgo a big FA signing here. I still think they will look for some FA LB's on value deals but maybe not what we were hoping for. The reason I think this is likely is because Zaven is such a great fit with this defense. We have incredible length, speed and athleticism on either side of the front 7 with Sweat and Young, having a 6-4 260 pound centerpiece to that combo is going to put a lot of pressure on QB's to find throwing lanes and will help stuff the runs up the middle that have plagued us. Zaven might not be an elite run stuffer but his size is going to make him tough to push around at the point of attack.