Sticksboi05

There's a lot of variables. Most of this worry is based on data from Israel, which as a ton of confounders and has been questioned by doctors in the country. That said, even the questioning of the data doesn't negate the waning hypothesis. UK and Canada meanwhile are not seeing anything of the sort, Canada's pandemic right now is miles below America's. Part of that could be because those two countries spaced second doses out 8-12 weeks after the first, which could end up giving much more durable protection than 3-4 weeks. Studies are still being done but there is evidence that spacing out doses is better. There is no evidence the vaccines are plummeting against severe illness or hospitalization, which is their primary goal. A respiratory virus like SARS COV 2 is very hard to keep from getting a positive test. A positive test does not mean you are diseased, it simply means viral RNA was found in your nose. Many asymptomatic vaccinated people will test positive without having a full on outbreak of replication in their bodies. Immune system-compromised virus that cannot infect others in your nose can give a positive test. You are almost assuredly going to be infected at some point as will everyone else. This is going to turn endemic, nobody is going to dodge the virus for decades, it will make its way through the population, the goal is to limit its damage. We have vaccines now, hopefully antivirals by the end of the year (Merck and Pfizer have trials). People need to start accepting the fact that they will get SARS COV 2 inside of them. More below from the experts:

I think the question is - from a broad perspective, do we get more out of moderately decreasing the odds of symptomatic disease, or getting more shots to people who have no protection here and abroad? The WHO and many virologists are disappointed in the focus on boosters vs. getting initial vaccination to people at all costs. You could argue certainly that they can be done simultaneously but there's fair arguments on the other side too. Vaccine efficacy against infection is incredibly hard to track with real-world data because of all the confounders i.e. how often are people in each group being tested, what is the level of natural immunity in the community, behavioral differences, is a positive test actually infectious virus vs. non-viable particles in your nose with a bunch of antibodies on them etc. If the next 50 million U.S. doses went to unvaccinated it'd be significantly more impactful than boosters. But yes, you can also argue, well we can still do outreach to those folks on the fence and do this. I just foresee this being really messy and there's already talk of wow so I am now signing up to get three shots in less than a year.

SARS COV 2 will never be eradicated. It's going to become endemic and be something we deal with like the flu. Everyone will have the virus inside of them at some point. As long as we decouple cases from hospitalizations and severe illness that's as good as it'll get. And it won't be as widespread as it is now eventually.

I would guess we may see a recommendation of mixing vaccine types since all data shows AstraZeneca+Pfizer gives stronger immune response than double Pfizer. I'd guess JnJ people will be told to get a Pfizer booster specifically. UK, Germany and Canada have already done mixing - there's not significant health risks.

I will get a booster when I see a consensus among virologists that it is needed for healthy people. At this point, the myriad virologists I follow have said it is not necessary at this time.

An important thing we can do within our own communities - do not spread the message that breakthrough infections mean the vaccine has failed. This is starting to pop up more and more in my friend and work groups and I'm like no, the vaccines are here to decouple cases from hospitalizations first and foremost, and breakthroughs regularly occurred with flu, measles and other vaccines. You hear someone say that – slap that **** out of the air.

It's funny how all the people proudly anti-vaccines live in Western nations where dozens of miserable diseases have been eliminated from society. If they're so proud, why don't they roll to sub-Saharan Africa, Asia or maybe the South American towns along the rainforest and go about their days trusting their immune systems because they do yogaaaaaa. Kinda like all the no GMOs ever food people. Much easier as a middle class citizen in a country where you're never at risk of lack of nutrition or food supply because of climate change or environment/terrain.

Lots of virologists rightfully pushing back. Eric is a top level scientist but not an infectious disease expert.

Yes, exactly! I'm saying call out their bull**** the right way by giving people access to the truth. Instead of just quote tweeting a nutjob like Alex Berenson and saying "This guy is an idiot!" or with some joke, share the correct information. Call out why his nonsense if completely wrong. Back the bull**** into a corner so to speak. You won't convince everyone in that rabbit hole to change sides, but you'll get more people that way and you'll keep people who are on the fence on the right side of thinking. We're on the same page, I think my post was misinterpreted. I'm not saying ignore it, that doesn't work either. I'm saying quote tweets and retweets of misinformation for the purposes of scoring dumb jokes is bad. I'm saying do the due diligence of spreading the truth while you call out the garbage. The tweet I shared is awesome because he attacks it straight up with accurate data on vaccines and the fact that they are working.

Of the unnecessary sharing of right wing lies – that's Twitter anytime Tomi Lahren, Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson etc. say something ridiculous. A million quote tweets propagating their message. But a good example of shutting down misinformation would be ... just call it out directly and show the facts.

I hate Twitter accounts like Right Wing Watch. It's crazy how liberals on Twitter constantly enable misinformation by sharing it to their masses, repeating it and giving it free eyeballs usually so they can make a lame joke that isn't very funny - it's counterproductive and just gets people upset as well. Need more accounts sharing the truth, drilling it into people until they cannot deny it.

It's very hard to explain to friends that headlines like XX% of people in the hospital are vaccinated is not a sign the vaccines are failing.

Important reminder as the vaccine vs. variant race unfolds. Viral load does not equal infectiousness - while the CDC probably felt that it was best to be on the safe side and it is true that in certain cases, vaccinated people who are symptomatic could transmit SARS COV 2, you cannot simply assume that equal viral load means unvaxd and vaxd are equally contagious. Dead virus counts towards viral load and PCR picks up viral RNA not full particles. https://www.timesofisrael.com/80-of-vaccinated-covid-carriers-didnt-spread-virus-in-public-spaces-report/

Trust me, I did not mean that as a "try to see it from his side".

If you do some research on Cousins' dad you may see why he believes as he does.

Re: masks the message to the general public should by now be that we need to upgrade from medicore cloth masks to KN95s and KF94s. They are plentiful and much much more effective in protecting you and others vs. just others around you.

Vaccines doing great job preventing infections in Virginia.

Some vaccines do, especially if they are intranasal vaccines. Viral particles being inside your body doesn't = infection. You can have a ton of viral RNA in your nose from dead virus that gives you a positive PCR test but that is not necessarily an infection, which is one of the limits of PCR. It only tests for RNA not viable virus. Eventually we will have nasal spray vaccines that don't even allow for minimal replication in the nose or airways.

Pfizer's vaccine will be FDA approved in the next 4-6 weeks it is a matter of plant inspections, and negotiating with Pfizer on the precise language the company can use when directly advertising the vaccine to consumers, which all goes into a biologics license. No I cannot guarantee there will be no long-term effects just like I cannot guarantee that there won't be any long-term effects from mild COVID. However, comparing the rare side effects of the vaccines to the much more common side effects of long COVID, the risk assessment is pretty clear on getting vaccinated. Medicine and biology are not binary - immunity is not either you can 100% catch, or 100% not catch a disease, and side effects are not either there are some or none. There is not a single therapeutic ever made that can't have unfortunate side effects in some people, even something as basic as penicillin. 7.5 billion people in the world with different genetics, different conditions, different health and predispositions, environmental factors etc. If you're only willing to take medication with a zero percent chance of side effects you shouldn't even be taking Advil considering how many people go to the hospital yearly for OTC NSAIDs.

Being vaccinated absolutely decreases your odds of getting a COVID infection, especially symptomatic. Right now the estimate is the vaccines, primarily mRNA, are 75-85% efficacious in preventing symptomatic Delta variant based on studies from UK, Scotland etc. Here is a good visualization in San Diego County.

I am very worried about the Nationals outbreak because it is going to give more ammunition to anti-vaxxers and people on the fence who don't understand that immunity is not binary, it is on a moving scale. It sounds like all of the positives were from routine PCR testing and asymptomatic, meaning the vaccine is doing its job of keeping the disease from becoming symptomatic. Public health experts have not done a good enough job explaining that breakthrough positives aren't failures. And many of the Nationals got Johnson & Johnson, which is less effective in preventing infection than the mRNA vaccines.

George Washington did force U.S. troops to get inoculated with smallpox during the Revolutionary War. Surprised he isn't being called a communist by MAGA.