Jump to content
Washington Football Team Logo
Extremeskins
Forum Rules and Guidelines

illone

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,199

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by illone

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Ghost of said:

    He's not perfect but he is better at moving in the pocket and using it to pass the ball and on the run he keeps his eyes downfield usually. He also avoids big hits, he has a sixth sense about avoiding the big crushing blows for the most part.  

     

     

    Something that stood out when i watched Michigan live, and then more-so when I went back and watched cut ups of his throws...

     

    he rarely escapes backwards, and I can't find a single play where he generated his own pressure. Not saying it didn't happen, but my very scientific eye ball exam indicates it was a very rare thing indeed. 

     

    Compare that to other players like Howell for example. How many sacks were because he escaped right into the jaws of a defender.  Maye did this a lot last season and why a lot of analysts question his footwork. He takes a ton of useless steps, many times resulting in "self generated pressure". I get the counter argument that he was the ONLY decent player on his entire team, but that argument fails when you watch the tape and can plainly see open areas of the field for him to step up and instead he bails or steps the opposite direction.

     

    JJ on the other hand was always moving forward, attacking, keeping eyes down field, and only running when necessary, but NEVER escaped into pressure, or ran backwards. It was that subtle side step, or quick jab step to open up a throwing lane. The knock being that he wasn't asked to do this much, obviously. I contend that was just the system he was in, not a knock on the player. Moreover, you could make the argument that he is even MORE elite because his arm was cold and not in rhythm when he was asked to convert a 3rd and 7 with his arm after handing it off 10x in a row.

     

    And yes, to your point about avoiding big hits, it does seem like a sixth sense with him. Jayden is the opposite, like a magnet for train wrecks. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

     
    One comp I've heard for JJ is Alex Smith
     
    I've heard it a few times, and usually in a negative context. I know Cooley made this comp, among others, and I don't think this is the flex (anti-flex?) that many think it is..
     
    I guess my question is this:
     
    Are we projecting JJ to have a similar NFL career arc as Alex, or are we comparing them as college players?
     
    I think in order to truly compare them you'd need to do the impossible and forget what you already know about Alex the NFL player and try to remember him as Alex Smith the college prospect. Very hard to do. Not to mention Alex had a pretty darn good NFL career by most standards (there's that damn winning % thing again).
     
    I want to open up kind of a different angle to that discussion:
     
    Should San Fran have taken Aaron Rodgers instead?
     
    Another way to frame the question: Does WHERE you go matter?
     
    I think most sane football minds would say "yes", Rodgers should have been the pick there. I thought so at the time and still think so now. I was in shock that Arod sat in the green room for so long. One of NFLs biggest mistakes ever. If only Green bay would have taken Jason Candle instead, maybe he would have ended up in Washington, but I digress...
     
    To add another layer to it, of course nobody knows how their careers would have turned out had they gone to different teams. Arod could have struggled had he been thrown out there too early. My guess is he would have more super bowls, but does Shanny even get hired there if Arod plays well?
     
    Ironically McCarthy (Mike) was the OC in san fran during that time, so maybe he sticks around or gets elevated.
     
    To bring this full circle, I am viewing this draft through a 10-15 year lens.
     
    I dont want to draft the consensus QB.
     
    I want to draft the guy that 10-15 years from now we will look back and say "That guy should have been the #1 pick"
     
    Maye to me is a weird mix of Mcnabb and Wentz. Hard pass. I'm not Merrill Hoge he will get you fired level with him, but I think there are too many holes in his game that need to be fixed for me to think he can elevate to what many here are elevating him to. I dont think he is going to get a 2nd contract with the team that drafts him but he is the type of kid that will be given too many chances due to size and arm strength.
     
    Daniels is a skinnier RG3, destined for IR. As they say the best ability is availability. I am worried he wont be available. Even Jalen Hurts who was a similar player in college albeit stronger and stockier, is banged up all the time. I know the kid has shown some toughness over the years, but man that upright running style is gonna get him smashed at the next level.
     
    I've yet to see advanced metrics that directly convey to NFL success so I think the jury is still out on the PFF stuff/EPA stuff. Too many variables.
     
    Example: Jayden Daniels vs Army this past year gets included in his numbers even though it was painfully obvious they were stat padding and Heisman campaigning in that game. He should have sat at halftime. Michigan in that same situation would ABSOLUTELY sit JJ.
     
    So how do you quantify this?
     
    You can't, hence why I toss out most of those advanced metrics. Unless the schedule is the same so you can establish a consistent control group, you are going to get inconsistent data.
     
    I try to keep things as simple as I can all things considered. 
     
    Thats why I rely on NFL style metrics, or things I think DO translate to the NFL game. 3rd down conversion. Accuracy. Situational football.
     
    This is why I am high on JJ McCarthy. I think Harbaugh was right when he said JJ plays "Quarterback" the best. I think he projects to a great NFL career if he goes to the right spot that can develop his strengths and fill in some of the mechanical issues he displayed previously. I've noticed many posters claim that Maye/Daniels will improve, so why aren't the same assumptions made for JJ? 
    • Like 7
    • Super Duper Ain't No Party Pooper Two Thumbs Up 1

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

    You know it's funny, near the end of the season, I don't know anyone who thought Daniels was a top 3 guy (as in top 3 picks.) Now he is. People just rolled over on it.  But if someone suggests McCarthy, the younger-than-Maye even, the best all-around metrics, former five-star with 4.5 speed and the fifth fastest shuttle at the combine (of all positions) state and national HS champion and now college champion is worthy of consideration---no, nope. Can't do it.

     

     

    Yea, it's kind of a weird phenomena.  There are some human psychology elements to it. 

     

    Example: frequency and familiarity.

     

    The human brain sees something in the same place for long enough, it will think it belongs there even if it doesn't. This is devoid of analysis, and yes we are ALL guilty of it. It's part of being human. Drake Maye has been at the top of mock drafts for over 12 months. Caleb even longer. To suggest they DONT belong there is sacrilege. 

    • Like 1

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    Just now, Ghost of said:

     

    Yes, people keep having this argument because other people (who almost never watched college football more than casually and certainly did not follow Michigan) told them you can't take X, Y, Z seriously and therefore it's just between the two guys. 

     

    You know it's funny, near the end of the season, I don't know anyone who thought Daniels was a top 3 guy (as in top 3 picks.) Now he is. People just rolled over on it.  But if someone suggests McCarthy, the younger-than-Maye even, former five-star with 4.5 speed and the fifth fastest shuttle at the combine (of all positions) state and national HS champion and now college champion is worthy of consideration---no, nope. Can't do it.

     

     

    WiNnInG dOeSn'T mAtTeR

     

    image.png.94155d0f8f179a82bb617a61d77262d6.png

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

    Every new analytics based hire increases our chances of drafting Maye. There are almost no advanced metrics that suggest Daniels is better than Maye, he fails almost all of them.

     

     

    JJ beats Maye in most of those categories.  Especially those the NFL cares about: 3rd down, 4th down, accuracy, etc.

     

    Nothing to see here, though. Back to the Maye love fest😂

    • Like 1
    • Haha 5

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

    LSU would’ve been a 4-5 win team without Daniels. LSU offense was constantly in go now mode because our defense was historically bad. People forget that. The pressure was ALWAYS on Daniels to deliver any time we played a team with a pulse on offense. Pair Daniels and that offense with just a top 50 defense this season and they’re National Champions at the end of the year. 


     

    4-5 wins?  I dont know about that… Nussmeier played well vs an underrated wisconsin defense in the bowl game. Not saying Nussy is better by any stretch but he isnt 5 losses worse than Jayden. 

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

    The staff at LSU was legitimately excellent.  They had a magical season whereas Drake Maye spent the year bailing water for a sinking program.  Ignoring this huge difference in situation is sticking your head in the sand.  And so is ignoring the difference in the way each player responded to program dysfunction. 


     

    This is a bit hyperbolic, no?

     

    LSU fielded one of the worst defenses in college last year. Certainly nothing magical happening there unless you consider defenders disappearing from their gaps, missing tackles and blowing coverage as “magic”. 
     

    Mack Brown is one of the best coaches in college football history. In fact, he is the winningest “active” coach in college right now since Saban retired. UNC football has some ground to make up in the NIL department, but to say its a sinking program seems like a stretch. 

    • Like 4

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Llevron said:

    I'm confused. He played the next game. 

     

    I'm not the argument police but its weird to make up hypotheticals like LSU (would have?) played well without Daniels....when they didn't and where never in position to. 


     

    Not sure if this was part of the argument previously stated, but LSU only played one game without Daniels… the bowl game that he opted out of. Iirc they played wisconsin. 
     

     

    • Like 1
    • Thumb up 1

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    2 hours ago, redskinss said:

    Randall Cunningham spent the last ten years of his career averaging about 1200 yards a season because he wasn't hardly playing at all and Ben Roethlisberger was throwing for 4 to 5000 yards a season 15 years into his career despite all the injuries. 

     

    This is a fantastic example of why I want the guy who is less likely to flash in the pan and burn out.


     

    Ben was a one-read QB for the first three years of his career. 
     

    Pitt won in spite of his deficiencies. 
     

    Re-draft 2004 and I think most GMs would take him over Eli and Rivers… I would. 
     

    I hope this team is patient with JJ and develops him properly despite some potential early growing pains. Long term gains might be worth the wait. 

    • Like 4

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

    I’ll be attending @Koolblue13’s psychedelic mushroom draft party and if we take Daniels, I’ll attribute the sudden realization of his great potential to the new pathways being opened in my brain. It’s been in the works for weeks.


     

    this looks and sounds like a public invite. 
     

    I’ll bring the music and JJ McCarthy jerseys. 
     

    🔊 

    • Haha 2
    • Super Duper Ain't No Party Pooper Two Thumbs Up 1

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    Interesting quote from the TV mini-series Shōgun that applies to the draft process:

     

    “Every man has three hearts: one in his mouth for the world to know, another in his chest just for his friends, and a secret heart buried deep where no one can find it. That is the heart a man must keep hidden if he wants to survive.”

     

    If we can engineer a way to uncover this elusive "third heart", then we can unlock draft success for years to come.

     

    🥷

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

     

    Absolutely not.  If Peters and Quinn mess this up, they need to go.  They've been given the second overall pick in a QB class with at least two blue chippers, opportunites don't get better than this.

     

    If it fails, we need to move on with a new regime and let them pick the next QB prospect.


     

    I hope Harris isnt approaching it like this. 
     

    I’d prefer Peters to get at least one more shot at QB unless the rest of these next two draft classes are Rivera like. 

    The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

    in The Stadium

    Posted

    The part that gets missed by most evaluators is the mental side of the game.

     

    Very hard to determine the mental makeup of another human being hence why the Wonderlic and S2  Cognition tests produce inconsistent results.

     

    Dan Quinn has referenced it a few times in different interviews, and not just with QB.

     

    As with ANY job interview with big dollars on the line, you only get to see the mask, not the real person. Probably why these in-person interviews are so important in that you are trying to dissolve as much of the mask as possible and get a glimpse of the guys soul.  What makes him tick. What's important to him. Why does he want to be great (if at all?).

     

    Throw in the fact that people change over time and you have yourself a nearly impossible psychological riddle to solve.

     

    It's the human element that will probably remain a mystery forever.  

     

     

    • Like 5
×
×
  • Create New...