Ghost of

Any of these guys apply their models retrospectively? I don't mean going back to Brady or hell, Montana, but about 12 years? Maybe a guy running his own site can't do that but, uh, what about NFL teams? Any reason they don't do it? Having a model that reliably "predicts" success looking back would seem useful. Yes I know there are stats going back a few years but we need more.

Only the William Shatner cover for me, dawg.

I am detecting something from some of the QB analysis commentary that makes me a bit uncomfortable. Like guys are being held to different standards in public discussion for non football reasons. Like I am comfortable saying JD was embarrassing on the podium but I feel like people are holding back (not socal lol). How do guys who don't throw down the middle get known as post snap processors if they also get sacked a high percentage of times and run so much and not keep eyes downfield?

"He's got to see it to believe it." No thank you.

But this appears to be this particular guy's metrics based on his Twitter thread. Or maybe he's commenting on a larger company's. He's now touting Spencer Rattler and diminishing JJ McCarthy. But this is the issue with even metrics that favor "my guy." Who is categorizing on-target 25+ yards down the field? How do I know this dude is legitimate, I'd need to go back now. Is he with PFF or Ourlads? He developed his own "Weighted On-Target %." This is a bit different than the situation (past the sticks, dropbacks, etc.) Way more subjective.

It's all about smiles and cries. You gotta control your smiles and cries, because that's all you have and nobody can take that away from you.

After years in academic and the private sector and interacting with other organizations: No one really has the time. The level of competence you assume is too high, not because any individual is lazy or dumb, but because the items you identify as key are just part of the job that the people in that org have to do. Then there's miscommunications, changes in rules, workflows, databases, measures, trends in HR and talent evaluation, etc. I think over time you can get to a more scientific process with QB prediction but you're still going to miss because as illone says, some of it is between the ears. And not just intelligence but persistence, resilience, applying intellectual concepts or mental models to physical performance and then back again. These are possibly easy to do in isolation, but not remotely as easy to do together. I think scouts and others should also look at how they speak in post game. Do they accept (even meekly) credit but when it's "blame" time it's "we're all in this together?" I find that to be very worrisome trait as both Campbell and Brunell did it.

I also think too many people are willing to just tear up the S2 because Stroud but we have no idea if Stroud needs testing accommodations and didn't get them (I'd assume that specific type of test means no such things) or if he blew it off because he thought he was already one of the top 2 QBs. I assume the analytics guys for teams have run the statistical analyses but it also would not surprise me if they have not given them proper priority. Like maybe S2 combined with a rating of processing, or weighted scores based on system (route vs. defense reads), weight/height. One of the most interesting things I found is that medium size is correlated with performance in QBs. So not 5-6, but not 6-8 (Dan McGwire lol) and 205-215, not 245. And LLevron above is correct that you need to approach this from a mixed methods lens, not merely quant and no, not just the eye test.

But you didn't post his counter points: If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you know that I like to establish what I’m not saying. What I’m not saying is: Mobile quarterbacks are injured less frequently than statue quarterbacks. Running the football, as a whole, is less dangerous and results in fewer injuries than passing the ball. Pocket passers won’t stay healthy/are injury prone. Also what the fantasy community values isn't what I'm valuing in the future. About those interview videos. Again, I ask Daniels backers: This y'alls QB?! Daniels grew up in San Bernardino. Why is it that I have a hard time understanding him? Why is he saying the commanders already did their homework. Is this mumblecore shy guy demeanor going to inspire his teammates? I guess he had no issue at LSU but at some point I'd like to see something that fills me with confidence. Dan Quinn talks about post snap processing. In what way if you're not using the scramble to keep your eyes down field?

Every time I see a chart like that it looks good for McCarthy. It's funny to see so many dismiss based on an eye test for games they ain't even watch but advanced stats show a well balanced performance in areas that would matter most. Combine with physical talent and mental makeup...

Schlereth talked about something with Maye that I also find concerning (I'll get to Breer on McCarthy.) He said his release is "loopy." Meaning maybe not "slow" but long. And watching the Pro Day it jumped out at me. It's not the end of the world but it is a concern and Schlereth talked about how when your release is long, it leads to easier flubs of the easy stuff as you try to quicken your release. Hence, missing short throws. Breer said McCarthy puts his whole body into his throws. That's not entirely accurate (especially on the run) but I do see that at times. Just something for people to consider. Daniels has a nice release but someone mentioned kicking his foot out. Not sure how consistently that occurs though.

I was struck by the fact that when Jim Brown passed there was not even a thread, I think. Or maybe one post. That's how I know the internet sports talk game had changed.

Z...Z dude. Millenials. Talk about Boomers, calling everything Millenials. No one is as cool as X though. It's in the name. X...Xtreme.

It's got anti-concussive properties. It's like Tussin but from bewbs.

"I want a guy who can do the boring well. How often do you see the 60 yard dimes?" Where is ThatNFLChick, BayouBrave, etc? This y'all King?

Drake: Dad, I just got this letter from BWC, Inc. Enterprises? But for the million I have to sign and pick up the check at the Motel 6. That's odd."

Take a look at how often a guy's ratio carries over in some way to the pros. Mahomes pretty much mirrors his college career. Now, maybe Mac Jones was protected by being at Alabama. But then one might wonder if Jayden Daniels had a similar situation last year. You are saying that the presentation lacks depth and maybe in an individual post that's true, but what about these numbers fills you with hope that a guy who is career at the bottom (though PFF weights the grade somehow--don't know in what way) of QBs in the last several years is somehow the one shining exception? Like yes, he may still come in and be good like Burrow. but look at that list---it's just Burrow.

Three years? JJ McCarthy started two full seasons and did backup duty in his first year of play in 2021. And he drove out the QB of a CFP team because the talent differential (physically) was that much higher and he was a better QB and leader.

Was that because he wasn't pressured as much as other guys?

I agree with just about your entire post, including the earlier part about JJ but I don't know that there's a blaring warning sign with him. He performs better under pressure and "high leverage" situations and over the middle than Maye. Ourlads had a video on this maybe 3 weeks? a month ago. It's not even close actually. Now, of course, who the hell knows, maybe they're all lying or fudging these stats. But I'd say the guys who handle "high leverage" situations are always someone you take another look at, then when you add in having the right mindset. If he's a wiz at the whiteboard/film breakdown, is good in pressure situations, takes things "personal" (a la Jordan) He went to Michigan after Ohio State's Ryan Day lied to him and went with McCord) and wins. It's not true that he doesn't elevate his team, there's a reason he took the job from McNamara and he was one of the few 5 star players on Michigan's roster (thus somewhat less of the SEC/Halo effect you mentioned.) There are definitely warts but being the youngest guy in the draft and having some of the performances/metrics and physical gifts (he's probably the best moving in the pocket of anyone in the draft not named Caleb) means that "projecting" means something.

Who debunked the advanced stats? I know there was an error in third down stuff at some point but what do you mean? who? when? where?

Crazy? we had this same discussion back in the 00s. There are ways of intuiting things that go beyond statistical measures. Say, for instance, you're a Michigan student telling other people at school that Tom Brady had a magic about him and he'll be good in the NFL. But what round did he go in? By qualified NFL scouts and GMs? Why did that student at Michigan get it right? Why did some nutjob on Extremeskins not only call Brunell from the first game of 2004 as a disaster but then broke down his drops and explained one reason why he was failing? Did he know something Gibbs and company did not? Perhaps so.

Hell, you can apply that to the entertainment business outside of sports. I mean someone greenlit Ghostbusters 2016. But as to the quote, I have personal experience with friends and family who would cause you to question the above. I don't mean flubbing taking your temperature or diagnosing a broken arm, obviously.

Look at the quotes above. They all read like posts on Extremeskins. And when I say they read, I mean it reads like a thread on each QB. Daniels "processing" speed, McCarthy and Daniel Jones. It's bizarre. At least when I watch Thinking Football or someone similar, I get comments, terminology, etc. and it seems like they actually watched someone and took into account other context.

That section from Dane Brugler points out what I've said. Going into Penn State, McCarthy was a Heisman candidate. He injured his lower leg and had trouble throwing the rest of the regular season/Big 10 title game. Then people act like it's somehow out of bounds to consider him with the top ranks and then blame him for them running the ball when their head coach was suspended and his leg is preventing a solid throwing base for most attempts. The question is when these guys get into the whiteboard or film with teams---who is processing best? And who actually performed under pressure (from defenses and in big moments)? It's odd to see people talk about Daniels processing---I don't get it. I mean, I get that he may have shown mastery at the line this year from what you can tell but this all sounds like scouts don't know anything different than us lay "experts."