The Consigliere

Me neither. Gave them a superstar, and ruined all my trade ups in dynasty to get Nabers. Now Nabers is a giant, w/no QB worth a ----, value just tanked. Damn.

Praying I'm wrong. At least I don't feel he's a Zach Wilson, Ryan Pickett, Danny Nickels, Mitch Trubisky level piece of idiocy, but I don't have a lot more confidence in than I had in more meh guys over the years like Cutler, Mariota, Goff etc. Not stylistically, just: not remotely confident they'd hit. Definitely 1000% believe Maye is the better long term QB prospect, think it's crazy they went with Daniels. Hugely disappointed, what a let down, that tiebreaker gave us Daniels instead of Maye (or was Maye 4th on our board?)...time will tell. Poor Maye lands in a sewer with notorious ---- bags for fans, and an absolutely dumpster fire of a WR room. Its gonna take quite a while to fix that ---- show, if he does hit, it probably isn't clear for a few years. At least Daniels has some tools to work with, though he badly needs more help on that OL. Please prove me wrong Daniels, if nothing else I can take solace in the fact that I'm as crap as anyone else at predicting who hits (but pretty damn good at hitting on who I think will bust unfortunately), hopefully he hits in spite of my fears.

Lions haven't been this good since Eisenhauer, they have reason to celebrate for the first time in 70ish years. Good for them.

Always pick up Paulaner and westahphaneer7328437 Hefe when I see it at total wine or world market etc. They are the beers that opened the beer world to me 27 years ago :).

There have been few things more enjoyable in life, than playing pick up games/faculty student games with people that don't know you. As an out of shape adult, my students have no clue, utterly no clue about teachers that were athletes, always expect to take us to school and then get trounced lol, and the look they have when they realize that your out of shape --- can still absolutely obliterate their soft generation wuss sporting self esteem w/o much trouble is always priceless.

Vikes have two firsts.

Me as well, as a pre-internet child in the seventies and eighties I liked the Eagles and Patriots as backup teams because I played for eagles named soccer teams as a kid and liked their colors, and loved the patriots logo and color combo. No fan bases more quickly ruined their rep w/me in the internet age than those two. Discovering what Boston fans were really like, and Philly Fan, my god!!! Then again, I still kinda like the patriots in spite of their god awful spoiled rotten fan base. If Maye went there I'd be fine, the Giants, not so much.

It will be interesting if that's how it plays out. Will the patriots trade out? They'd be crazy to, but they might, I just don't know if they get a godfather offer from the giants when they can still potentially get JJ at 6. But I will say, I'll be sweeping up Maye in my dynasty leagues and will be in that oft-uncomfortable place of hoping he hits and hits big, for a team I loathe, but I've been there before with Saquon, and even bought a lot of Wandale on the cheap a few years ago and other guys earlier. Dynasty is my first love these days, I do for me first, just like betting (always the mind, never the heart). But I'll be cheering both on if that plays out that way, not cheering my drafting preference over for clout. Nothing comes cheaper than antique sports social media clout lol. The Cruelest of the cookies. A 180-200 calorie bomb for 2, when you want to eat 10.

That would lead me to being not remotely impressed w/the regimes ability to evaluate QB's, then again, we've seen over the years, everyone sucks at it, so as I mentioned in reference to the poster who wanted everyone ---- canned if its Daniels and he busts. The sad reality is, the bulk of the league is missing on the Daniels eval if he busts, not just Peters, practically everyone except maybe NYG and a couple of other teams who like Maye (if he does hit). Additionally, you can him for blowing this, you need to acknowledge: #1 The whole league blew this, not just Peters. Much like with Bryce Young, with Pickett, with Danny Nickels, with Darnold etc. #2 You aren't going to find a better GM reputation wise, in terms of added value in the hardest rounds (day 2 and day 3 selections #3 Your replacement at best, is probably Peters equal, not his better. I don't want him replaced out of pique no matter how pissed I am over what I view as the wrong choice in terms of mitigating bust risk. I'm gonna be angry, and if I'm right, really really pissed for a long time, that old, morrisey line, "He holds grudges/like lonely high court judges." applies. But I also don't want to botch what is a genuine opportunity: to rebuild a once proud dynasty after a longer dormant slumber than even the post Sammy baugh years (think about it, this team has been in a dumpster fire for even longer than the stretch of time between the last of Baugh's title game years, and the arrival of Vince Lombardi in '69...kinda wild to think about, in the nineties I used to imagine that time as interminable, 1946-1969, but we've been in the septic tank since 1993. 1993-2023. That's a pretty nasty, horrible, long run of unadulterated ----, not quite on the level of the Detroit Lions (who'd sucked since Eisenhauer), but close. So I can put up w/them botching this, though I'll be irate, because I probably got if im lucky another 30-40 years of enjoying football, I don't want to throw away our best GM since prime era Beathard because of 1 mistake (that might not even be one in the fullness of time).... But man, it was so utterly obvious, to me anyway, whom to take, and I'm just flabbergasted we're going to do the equivalent of blowing it, to me. But Im gonna try and fine solace in the idea that I could be wrong, just like I've been about half or more of the guys I've really liked over the years.

Daniels is 23, he's old, but not quite that old (will turn 24 like week 16 or thereabouts). I think Penix is 24 though.

I was one of those guys, a preexisting one though. Always loved the rainbow on the helmet logo, so took them on. Really was hoping Colt would be one of those rare day 3 hits, alas no such luck, crazy the dude passed away so young.

Nope. It would be nuts, but honestly, I like his profile better than Daniels, but otoh, he's definitely got a lower ceiling, probably a higher floor, but definitely the lower ceiling, so its interesting to consider that. For me, just trade down then and risk missing him because he's clearly not a cant miss guy. He's more of a floor bet like Mac Jones 3 years ago, though maybe a better profile, not sure.

Its very hard that so many quoted arguments w/him take the stance that he has a higher floor than Maye. That's always struck me as ridiculous. If he misses, it will be because of either injury, or because like so many others with his profile, the holes in it, and the major issues were historically consistently associated with mega busts: the throwing with anticipation concern, the very late breakout as a 5th year guy concern, the p2s ratio and not going through progressions or throwing when scrambling, the not using the whole field, all things that if you look sketchy on in college, usually don't turn you mediocre, but rather render you a total bust, Paxton Lynch kind of out of the league during first contract level bust. Maye isn't that. Maye's tools are so ridiculous, even if he can't sort his feet out, or his accuracy issues sufficiently, or his throwing mechanics to the satisfaction of coaches, there's always going to be someone in the league that wants to bet on his arm and that they can fix what surrounds those pot of gold traits he does have. He has the profile that insures people will keep convincing themselves for a decade like with Jeff George's arm. Daniels doesn't have that. If he gets RGIII'd out of the league with an injury, that's a wrap, he's gonna be done 1st contract or early 2nd, if he just busts on his tools period, and the gaps that in his profile, he'll go the way of Malik Willis and Mariota: to the bottom of the depth chart, eventually to backup and then out, or even worse, get Lynched/tebow'd. The idea that Daniels has a higher floor, that a lot of people in the media are parroting from scouts, and FO people just strikes me as absurd, and is a reminder of why they so often get QB's horribly wrong. There's a reason guys like Pickett went from a top 20 pick, to worth no more than a late day 3 pick in two years, and its because they looked at the wrong things, ignored the wrong things, and praised the wrong things while there was a giant chasm right in front of them ready to swallow them like the one in Monty Python in the Holy grail. Daniels is definitely one of four things: A Grand Slam A single like Justin Fields Out due to injury Mega Bust. Becuase of his athletic tools, as long as he doesn't get a career ending injury, he'll have a place, like Mariota has, but the reality that he could just bust horribly due to passing issues should be obvious, and same w/injury related issues. He's tantalizing, for sure, but he's 100% a prospect I'd rather have someone else take. I'm shocked he's #2, and can't help but be torn over missing data that would explain it (as well as concerning stuff w/Maye, JJ etc), and then I keep bouncing back to: this is the same league that fell in love with Bryce Young over Stroud, with Zach Wilson over Sam Howell and Brock Purdy, that elevated Danny Nickels to 5th overall, that questioned the hell out of Herbert, that preferred to Trubisky to Watson after Watson was an absolute monster in college, and Mahomes as well, that told us Mariota and Wentz were well worth the #2, that Weeden should go 3 rounds ahead of Russell Wilson, that liked Brock Lobster like I kinda did (I did, admittedly), that loved Ponder and Manuel when a straw poll of any random drunk or sober FSU fans would have warned them off immediately. This league is utterly hopeless at evaluating QB's, so Daniels at #2 would fit that, then again, maybe Maye at #3 would too, we'll see. Nice analogy, as mentioned yesterday, Shawn Siegele called him Burrow and Lamar's love child, if he can stay healthy, they are a pure analytics group at rotoviz.

That would be funny because there is a ton of evidence, even studies suggesting that part of the reason so many QB's looked like models into the 90's and aughts is their coaches subconciously would promote good looking kids over ugly all things being equal, people just naturally bias towards the attractive. you still get guys like Manning, w/the Keith Van Horne butter knife haircuts, and sometimes even flat out hideous dudes, but they were the heroic outliers.

I don't think they're all bad, Chicago isn't bad, Washington is poor but not horrible, the Patriots are poor to horrible, the Giants are poor to horrible, the Raiders are poor to horrible, a vikes trade up would be great. It depends. The Chargers are picking 5th, they definitely aren't horrible, though they had a horrible year.

While I'm inclined to think you're right Warheads, I could see Maye being ruined by that landing spot (and the Giants for that matter). With the Pats, its an average to below average line, no pass catching weapons worth a damn, and jag rb's beyond our recently ejected Gibson whose the only guy with athleticism whose ever done anything at all in the league (Tyquan has been injured and unproductive). That is a terrible landing spot and on top of that, supposedly there may not be an empowered GM anymore. That's a horror show. The Giants have crap at WR, nothing at RB, I dont remember what their OL is like, and a solid TE. It's another terrible landing spot. Basically he needs to land with Minny or his first two years are UNC redux, but maybe even worse, comparatively speaking to the opponents (UNC was better, as bad as it was, compared to its peers, than the Giants and Pats are to theirs). So he might just bust entirely due to landing in a total ---- show environment, David Carr style. It's frustrating. We're his best landing spot after Minny, but it sounds like we aren't even considering him. It will be karma for being stupid if he hits (in my view) but for the FO, not the poor fans that will have gone 90 years since they last successfully drafted and developed a blue chip QB (Baugh). I guess it fits. We just don't know how to do this. I hope I'm wrong. While I'm inclined to think you're right Warheads, I could see Maye being ruined by that landing spot (and the Giants for that matter). With the Pats, its an average to below average line, no pass catching weapons worth a damn, and jag rb's beyond our recently ejected Gibson whose the only guy with athleticism whose ever done anything at all in the league (Tyquan has been injured and unproductive). That is a terrible landing spot and on top of that, supposedly there may not be an empowered GM anymore. That's a horror show. The Giants have crap at WR, nothing at RB, I dont remember what their OL is like, and a solid TE. It's another terrible landing spot. Basically he needs to land with Minny or his first two years are UNC redux, but maybe even worse, comparatively speaking to the opponents (UNC was better, as bad as it was, compared to its peers, than the Giants and Pats are to theirs). So he might just bust entirely due to landing in a total ---- show environment, David Carr style. It's frustrating. We're his best landing spot after Minny, but it sounds like we aren't even considering him. It will be karma for being stupid if he hits (in my view) but for the FO, not the poor fans that will have gone 90 years since they last successfully drafted and developed a blue chip QB (Baugh). I guess it fits. We just don't know how to do this. I hope I'm wrong.

Double Post

Id want more. It's not enough. If the league consensus, wrong though I think it, is Daniels easily #2, I want more than a mid 2nd for moving to 3rd, whether I like Daniels or not. Which is funny, in dynasty, I just try to get trades done quickly, but w/this, I'd be more like my older brother, trying to strangle the life out of my trade partner to force the Godfather offer lol.

Not close for me, if I'm trading with the Raiders, I want 3 future firsts and at least another future 2nd and future 3rd on top of this year's 2nd. They say no, I say, I'm good. The raiders are a mess of a build with some good vets, a handful of good youngsters, and mostly crap. We empty out their pockets of futures and it's like the Nets-Celtics trade from years ago, Golden Loom stuff, yes please. Im not doing it for less than a H. Walker style overpay.

I would add JJ to that mix, but yeah, if the actual pick is Daniels, and the Raiders try to move up to 2 to make it happen, I'd do that trade, I'd prefer moving back to taking Daniels at 2, but I know that's not gonna happen. After 3 months of looking at these guys, I remain a Daniels Skeptic, not a denier so much, but definitely a skeptic, and I'd rather have the pot of gold than risk giving a way such a giant collection of goodies, especially knowing the raiders would be wrecked and our future picks quite high. I'd stay at slot for Maye, I'd move down if it was JJ as well. I'm at 2 for Caleb and Maye, but not Daniels (or JJ). Minny is temping, but I think they can fix/reboot that team quicker, the Giants and Raiders are better partners because both suck, but w/the Giants going for Maye, I wouldn't want that. Its complicated lol.

You'd be making a huge mistake. Relevant details: 17-5 in regular season. 4-2 in playoffs (6 TD's against 1 pick) 21-7 overall for a .750 winning percentage. Well those are team stats man. Dude also finished 5th in QBR in 5 starts in '22 and 1st in QBR starting a full season in '23. Playoff #'s are just "okay" at best. He hasn't been bad, or even below average, but he hasn't been scinitilating either, but lets also acknowledge he was accomplishing all this as a 7th rounder thrust into the starting lineup, and then playing 8 months after suffering a complete tear of his UCL, which he actually continued to play with after the niners ran out of QB's. I don't know where he ends up? It may just be an average or above average QB, but right now his #'s say he's much better than that. Efficency Metrics: True Passer Rating: 1st QBR: 1st Expected Points Added: 1st Production Premium: 4th Red Zone Accuracy: 10th Deep Ball Accuracy Rating: 3rd Clean Pocket Accuracy Rating: 18th Deep Ball Catchable Pass Rate: 1st Pressured Catachable Pass Rate: 5th Catchable Pass Rate: 12th Completion Percentage vs Man: 2nd Completion Percentage vs Zone: 17th Passer Rating vs Man (1st) Passer Rating vs Zone (6th) We would be enormously lucky to land a guy at 2 who produces these #'s in his second year, particularly on top of that with a UCL complete tear less than 9 months earlier. Needless to say, I'm highly skeptical Daniels comes anywhere close to any of this in year 2 or honestly any QB we take, these kind of #'s by and large are a fantasy come true, pretending otherwise strikes me as crazy. Are their concerns? Yep. Size and hand size are definitely concerns but there's no question early returns from Purdy are a grand slam level hit for a top of the 1st round pick, for a 7th round pick, we're talking Brady type numbers, but is that gonna continue. I don't know. But hell yes I'd take this every day at #2 and twice on sunday as they say.

Unless you know for a fact he's actually Brock Purdy, which is impossible, but the current Brock Purdy, is worth a #2 overall pretty easily (especially if he was on the first year of his rookie contract).

That's what shawn siegele said over at rotoviz and he's not lazy with comps, and rotoviz is analytics focused too. His view was Daniels if healthy is Burrow and Lamar had a kid. I don't see it, at all, but otoh, Siegele is not just some dude. He's legit, I am more just, "some dude" on my best day, so I gotta respect the take...if we get him, at least people I respect think he's quite special. I'm a bit more skeptical needless to say.

Gibbs II and 2012 is pretty slim pickings, that's some dedication. 49 here, its kind of wild to think that I first posted here when some people posting around here were in elementary school, heck, if you include CPND, some posters were apparently around 5 years old when I first started posting circa 1996 (21 back then).

I think the age thing just means, on average, Robinson has two more years of utility before the roof caves in, Stevenson probably has 1, but yeah, it's kind of silly. I'd also add that most analytics people feel that Robinson's hyper efficient '23 is simply not sustainable as he's never been this efficient ever, including with Alabama, it just looks like an outlier of outlier seasons, and you get the sense with the Ekeler signing that they agree. I think Robinson is gone after '25, and Ekler is spackle to get us to the selection of a RB in the '25 or '26 draft. We'll ride those guys out for 1-2 more max. The one reason I might give them the edge is simply that their starting OL and reserves are probably better than ours, at least last season anyway, period, and that's more important than anything else. If we land a legit OL in the first 70 picks though, we might catch up there. I'd much rather have our pass catchers, so I give us the edge in playmaking.