The Consigliere

I do agree w/this 100% which is why I'd s can any coach w/1 year on his contract and in a win or get fired kind of season before they did crazy trades. We've seen innumerable examples over the years of GM's and GM/Coaches and coaches simply seizing the future of a franchise, and throwing it out the window for a desperate attempt at a post season run and stupid, gullible owners, buying their bs and accepting it rather than firing them and blocking the trade.

What were the guys we supposedly liked versus did not like at all? I feel like you and others might have quoted Keim as saying we liked Pickett, Willis, and Corral Did not like Howell or Strong? Is that right? Are there other guys we have some interest in based on the rumors?

I'm highly skeptical, as for trading up, they didn't make a serious effort because they didn't move up. Didn't matter how much it cost, youre getting guys that many people thought should have gone #2 overall or #3 overall (and in time, at least Jones, and I definitely believe Fields, will be looked at as steals, clearly Mac already is). There was no price that was too high to pay for two guys that should have gone top 2-3 overall and were available in the double digits. I dont see how its even possible to conceive that the direction they went was wiser than actually paying the iron price, it was obvious at least to me at the time, and it's definitely obvious now, that 1 of the 2 is already a confirmed franchise QB (though I think Jones Ceiling is Matt Ryan to Matt Ryan-lite rather than HOF talent).. Stafford argument has never sat well w/me but you know that, he was/is what, four years older than Wentz is now, back issues, and a wife whose battling cancer, Im not a big fan of trading the farm for an old QB with back issues and every reason in the world to retire. Thought that was crazy then, and still do. As for the QB's in this class, ehhh, I'd still take Willis or Corall at 11 w/o a second thought, otherwise I'd consider QB in round 2. But honestly I think how this plays out seems kind of obvious, just on the odds. I'd bet it plays out like a cross between Alex Smith, Boonell, and Brad Johnson but w/2000, rather than 1999 being the performance. I suspect he's just good enough to make us stick with him and we get nowhere, we play just over and just under .500 ball for the length of his contract, and then move on a few years from now with nothing to show for it beyond more above and below .500 seasons and still no answer at QB on the roster, and that hilarious angle: no drafted and developed HOF caliber QB's since The Great Depression streak still very much intact (probably the craziest, most hidden, and yes cherry picked, and yet still accurate streak in history of any successful team. I find it astonishing that the Redskins managed to make 5 super bowls, win 3, and produce tons of playoff seasons since Sammy Baugh retired, and yet never drafted, developed and produced a HOF caliber QB career once in that run of 75 or so years). I hope I'm wrong. If Wentz suddenly turns into what was hoped five years ago after '17, which isn't impossible to imagine, we'd have pulled what the Raiders did twice with Plunkett in the eighties and Gannon in the aughts. It can happen, and has. Maybe it can again, but I remain deeply skeptical. He's got six years on his CV, nice big #'s, lots of injuries, and little winning football, how much is his fault, and how much isn't? I don't know, but the more I think about it, the more I see Cousins: kind of empty #'s. I can't tell you how many times I've rolled out Wentz on my 2 QB teams and then just shook my head at the bizarre up and down nature of his teams performances. We'll see, he's a mystery to me, but I dont disagree w/your general view: of all the QB's available last offseason and this, the only one I view as a more attractive option for what I want would have been Watson, who is truly elite. I don't believe in going after QB's as old and concerning as Stafford, Wilson, Rodgers and the like, I want to build something. Wentz is young enough to believe that the talent, and possibilities, if they played out just right, could produce something worth while for half a decade. You can't say that about the older vets I eschewed, and the dumpster diving options like Trubisky held no attraction whatsoever. They are proven nothings. Wentz is more a million question marks, but with some positives mixed in. If they were going to do something that confused me all offseason and left me in doubt of how things would play out, few things could have been better than this. Otoh, I also will just go w/the trends I see in his play, which for me, anyway, suggest more .500 caliber teams and performances. Again, hope I'm wrong, and I definitely could be, and to be fair, betting on one of these rookies turning into more than what Wentz is literally now, was and is definitely longer odds (other than maybe Willis, who due to his arm, and athleticism, will always be valuable and useful no matter how much he develops).

The thing that makes me nervous right now is that I think: Arm Talent: Wentz >Jimmy G Team Leader: Jimmy G>Wentz And none of this has to do with the fact that Wentz got trashed on his way out w/all those notorious (hold this story till he's traded so we dont burn brides, hit pieces). It's because when things were right for Jimmy G and he was healthy, he was superb w/his good teams in New England before he was traded, and with SF in '16, and again w/great SF teams in '19 and '21. It would be wrong to argue that he was carrying those niner teams, he wasn't (other than the '16 team where he was huge in building that 5-0 run), but it's hard to argue the idea that he wasn't able to help guide those teams to great runs in '16, '19 and '21. I have seen Wentz play like a legit leader and great QB once, in '17, and not since. So while I do think we're getting a more talented QB than Garop, easily, I am not at all sold we're getting a QB that can lead us, or be that guy behind center on an overperforming surprise team like garop was in SF in '16, '19 and '21. I don't see that at all. This seems like one of those rare instances in which the talent, probably is more harmful than helpful in how deceiving it can be, kind of like with Kirk. Just good enough to lose, like they said about DeBerg before Montana took his job.

yeesh, straight pass. Ertz body is breaking down. He's a catch and fall down TE these days. Straight pass for me. Lots, lots, lots more interesting options available than him. Eagles actually waited way too long to move on to Goedert from him.

I get that, it's basically a lot like Shanny getting McNabb as a bridge, and landing Alex Smith several years ago, and going after Brad Johnson in the '99 offseason when the sale prevented us from extending/resigning Trent Green. Not a perfect match w/any of those examples other than maybe Brad because Wentz isn't a senior citizen level NFL player, he's got 5-7 years at least of usefulness if he can stay healthy. Otoh, it's very much in keeping with Snyders "short cuts only" approach to running the team over the years. He's never done a tear down full rebuild EVER. The team has cratered multiple times, but never on purpose, just through mismanagement. This is another short cut, which is why people say "Snyder" even though it's a much more obvious example of a coach desperately reaching for a life preserver sniffing out the blood in the water "firing year" just like how Grunfeld and McPhee sold young, valuable assets for old, vets to try and forestall the GM reaper their last years on the job. It's more of that. The saving grace is that technically, it's possible to imagine Wentz actually developing into something good a la Rich Gannon, or Jim Plunkett etc in his thirties. The raw physical talent is still there, the underlying metrics are positive, he's not old, he'll be playing his age 29 season next year. It's forseeable he could play into the late 2020's as a starter if he can stop his downward descent in overall leaguewide esteem that has been going nonstop since he got hurt late in '17.

I think that would be 8-0 Dak now, w/o question. Like zero question whatsoever. I'm not sure what to think of this. I think it's an overpay when you look at the fact that we're eating that salary for them, though apparently we can pull an indy and dump him in a year if need be. My biggest problem with it is that we're doing the same thing we did in '99, '04, '10, and '18. Giving up on a true rebuild and trying a short cut. Maybe it works the fifth time but I seriously, seriously doubt it. If you really want to know what this is, at its simplest, it's a coach knowing he made a colossal error in not trading up for a QB in '21, and w/a ---- QB class coming through in '22, and no options whatsoever that could step in and play solid QB period based on evals, and w/his firing on the horizon if they win 5-7 games as expected in '22, instead he went to the dollar store to sort through the retread racks for the best option available that could turn us form a 5-12 to 7-10 team, into a 9-8 to 10-7 team, and give him 2 more years before he gets fired, instead of a pink slip in January '23. This is what it is. It's not a team being built the right way, it's a team being built by a panic ridden coach who knows everything rides on results just like Norv in '99, Jay in '18, and vets that simply were too impatient to wait for rookies like Gibbs in '04 and Shanny in '10. This is not the way fans should want their teams built. You want stewards who see the team in a 3-5 year plans, not in 1 year save my career moves, or in vet coach before he's retires quick fix moves like those of Gibbs and Shanny. This rarely ever works out (though it occasionally does). The one saving grace to it for me is that Wentz remains an elite arm talent QB, with the raw materials of an elite franchise QB, as a raw talent, he has more upside even now than any QB in this draft not named Willis. The problem is we have six years of evidence now that he can't stay healthy and that he can't consistently lead teams to quality play game to game, week to week, season to season. Otoh, Philly was a mess for the most part when he was there, but your guess is as good as mine as to why the Colts collapsed down the stretch and its alarming that he was at the helm of it and blamed for it. Why did they go from one of the best teams in football, to colossal chokers down the stretch? Who knows. Honestly, as others have alluded to in terms of personality, he may just be another Kirk, poor man's Matt Ryan, in the sense of compiling good #'s mixed with bad results and crap play in the clutch. I'm extremely disappointed that this team didn't build the right way in the last two drafts and felt forced to make a move like this due to said stupidity, stealing from the loaded '23 class to lock in this deal. Should also artificially inflate our record to screw us out of elite QB options in '23, just as Alex Smith did 15 months ago for the loaded '21 class. Not sure why people are so intent in talking themselves into this deal, but I guess that's what you do when you're fans and don't want to be bummed out at a team that can never and will never get it right. We'll see how it plays out. I expect 7-10 to 10-7 and total irrelevance though at least our conference sucks so anything can happen. There's a chance he turns it around, but people need to recognize that the odds of that are rather long. Far far more likely that he continues to be a mediocre QB on a mediocre team as he's been throughout his whole career. That's better than what we've had recently, but honestly aren't we sick of mediocre and worse? That's all we've had to eat for decades, don't you want to aim higher than that? Apparently not. I hope I'm wrong and he rediscovers the promise he showed five years ago.

Kind of odd for someone to sort of pseudo humble brag about all the arrows of outrageous fortune they had to bat aside while making the remarkable take that no established QB's would move?!?!?! How many elite QB's have moved in the past 20 years? Brees and Brady? Anyone else? What a silly take, and there is always something a bit odd about suggesting that taking heat on twitter from .04% of the populace is borderline heroic.

Honestly after the 3 I’m a straight pass on everyone so that probably means Picketts legit. Otoh, most of the guys I wanted no part of the most did bust: I hated Wilson last year, Jones in ‘19, erm Allen in ‘18, Trubisky in ‘17, both of them in ‘16, neither in ‘15, hated all the elite ranked guys of ‘10, ‘13, and ‘14 other than Newton and erm, Locker who I viewed as value until he went much higher than I expected ) Weeden in ‘12. But beyond Willis, Corral and Howell, I’m not interested and other than Willis it’s incredibly difficult for me to close my eyes and imagine stardom, kinda like hearing names like Blaine Gabbert or Blake Bortles just screamed bust. They just don’t roll off the tongue like Tom Brady or Joe Montana, Russell Wilson or Peyton Manning.

Add a few more yards and it’s a thousand but I don’t see it as causation. RBs tend to have more productive games when they’re salting away leads a more balanced attack generated.

For all the strum and drang it’s kind of funny. We like mostly the same Qbs. I can live with Willis or Corall pending the mental make up interviews (have to be last in first out guys for me) I have no interest in Pickett, and Howell is the one guy I could live w/drafting in a trade down. Ridder is interesting to me in the same way guys like Clausen and Locker were, I like guys that come w/cheap disappointing final year discounts, but the interviews and cross checking probably find all kinds of ugly about him. I kinda like my UNR QB Strong for a similar reasons if his knee checks out which stretches credulity, but having a guy w/that kind of Marino/Ben Roth pocket passing rocket game could be a winning hand, but it’s not a bet worth making unless super cheap and more a Cousins in ‘12 roll of the dice then a coherent long term strategy. If I’m ranking them I probably go: Tier 1 1 Willis Tier 2 2 Corral 3 Howell Tier 3: 4 Strong 5 Ridder 6 Pickett

Since the end of the glory years I’d rank Jimmy G ahead of stop gap bridge guys like Friesz, the ‘01 collection, the Spurrier collection, Boonell, McNabb and friends, and, Alex Smith and below Brad Johnson. It’s not so much that I hate Jimmy G as I just can’t see him as a top 10 make your team a contender QB anymore (going back years). He can be carried, he can’t do the carrying. I don’t want any QB of that sort, it’s just treading .500ish water. I’m hoping we get Willis or Corall because those are the only guys other than Watson that can give us a decade of great play. I don’t expect either of the prospects to do it but it’s possible. W/the other options I see no possibility whatsoever.

My view as well. He wasn’t worth a first in that trade several years ago when he was an unblemished rose. His stock is less than 1/3rd what it was back then AND he’s no longer on a cheap rookie deal. Same teams wouldn’t pay more than a 3rd.

I see you as kinda in agreement w/my sentiments here but I just wanted to state them. Moral stands are well and good but there is an element of hubris t them that can’t be denied or avoided. If the examples of beloved athletes like Kirby Puckett and award winning Eugene Robinson taught us anything it’s that you simply never truly know your players or their moral strengths, frailties or criminalities. You can deliberately choose to avoid proven monsters like Lawrence Phillips and Tyreek Hill or vile cretins like Watson but we can never truly have a morally clean roster, a roster built of nothing but character driven men. We never can truly know the hearts of these men. We can try our best but that’s all and to a degree I find it a bit of a hubris drenched fools errand. Character counts, but there’s never been a super bowl winning team built of nothing but angels, not really any sporting teams. The devils in the details. Always is, but I get wanting a team you can enjoy cheering for, alas our owner makes that fundamentally impossible at core level, if character counts above all else for you, anyway.

You too but part of the problem is that the love is mostly gone now. USMNT, club soccer and dynasty fantasy hold 90% of my sporting attention where all things redskins used to be 75% of my attention. I still remember signing up for a redskins forum in the winter of ‘95-‘96 being one of the first 3 websites I logged into when the internet as a public forum was first born and I was in college. Now it’s 26 years later snd we’re still treading water but ownership is infinitely worse. I’d say 97% of whatever pleasure the redskins have provided since then has actually been provided by the forums rather than the team. I still care but it’s more intellectual than passion. I appreciate you guys though. As the only source of fun tge fandom has provided in eons, those I agree and disagree with both.

That’s fine, I just wat to build something that lasts. Nothing else matters to me as much as that. Short term or offs like ‘99, ‘05-‘07, ‘12, ‘15, ‘20 just don’t mean much but I was spoiled in the 80s and 90s.

Wow. What is mid to to you? I guess you could keep it exclusively to 34-36? Does that work better? Good lord. Back to back Mastadon scale dumps on me. It’s going to take months to clean up how thoroughly you trashed myself and my takes. I’ll look into my tone. I’ve done my best to own when I’m wrong and I am wrong plenty (McLaurin and Rosen for example). Ftr, I always like the idea of trading for a QB if you can get a top 10 graded guy for a 65tg pick when they’ve got 4 years counting the option left on the rookie deal if I like the prospect and I liked Rosen. I’d do the same for Fields or Lance and even Tua last year. I view that as a cheaper and clever way to land a potential answer at QB than trading the moon for an old vet or drafting a sketchier prospect. Anyway probably a good idea not to read my posts to begin w/if there is an ignore button. I sound insanely annoying snd pompous as hell and who would want read that. Needless to say, I’ll work on my toe and fine tuning my takes for the board, I’m not looking to come across as some blank, I have opinions and some of them are quite strong and in my view correct. I’ve always had the sense that that is true of most people on here and boards in general, maybe not but that’s been my impression. Anyway good luck. You might be right. Maybe we are that. I’m just skeptical, it feels very much like the Johnson, Boonell, McNabb, Alex Smith trades to me and unlikely to move the needle as much as people suspect plus I view Wilson as a bolting/retiring risk demanding another trade type. I am a bit worried that he may be system dependent as well. Otoh, as I mentioned before, the NFC is much more open than the AFC.

He was playing injured the bulk of the year. He’s nowhere near as bad as he looked in ‘21. My problem w/him is we have a 4 year sample size now and it’s all uneven w/a lower than top 10 overall ceiling to his best play and lots of injuries mixed w/a performance level that looks like peak Dalton or perhaps a bit worse than that. Basically he looks league average or slightly better on his typical healthy day. That shouldn’t be our objective unless it comes very cheap. We are trying to find a plus QB not a .500 QB. It’s also worth noting that the second OBJ got out of there he went from waiver wire production to an above average #2 starter. I can live w/Baker as a cheap bridge guy because there’s a long shot chance he can become above average but he’s not a solution if you are looking for a legit game changing QB and that’s what I want.

Yep, which is why you get the QB first along with his OL, rather than the DL. If you don't have the QB, you don't have anything. I don't think Wilson turns us into a Super Bowl Contender, I think he turns us into a 8-9 win team, instead of a 4-6 win team. Could be wrong though, and I'll toss this quite reasonable bone. The AFC is a nightmare, the NFC is wide open. There aren't many young franchise QB's whatsoever in the NFC, nearly all of them are in the AFC. The NFC has Dak, and Kyler, and then literally nothing else that's reasonably young and elite other than Fields if he hits. The AFC has Josh Allen, Mac Jones, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Watson for now, Trevor Lawrence, Herbert, and Mahomes, basically 8 of the 10 best QB's under 30. So yeah, there are probably short cuts available to sneak into getting the ---- kicked out of you in a super bowl in the NFC instead because there's only Kyler Murray, Dak, and Stafford in your way as elite QB's (and possibly Fields if he hits like I think he will), and Stafford probably retires in a year or two. I don't expect him to play as long as Brees, Brady, and Rodgers. I still wouldn't do it this way though. I'd trade DL assets and other pieces to rebuild around the '23 QB class, that's how I'd do it as GM, blow it up for a run at a top QB in '23, keep the OL (no trades there) but blow up everything else. But that's just me.

33 is mid thirties, and he's a guy with a bad back whose wife recovered from cancer, not saying this as any form of judgment, but if there's a player that could retire tomorrow a la Andrew Luck, it's definitely Matt Stafford, and especially Matt Stafford, Redskins QB, as opposed to Matt Stafford, Rams QB. Life is way too short to be playing for Daniel Snyder with a bad back when your wife is fighting or was fighting the cancer fight. Wouldn't shock me at all if we were successful in our offer, and he turned around and retired two years later, or one year later, or asked for a trade again especially after the hell year we just had. So, I was someone at the time, and 100% now, that was not in any way shape or form, in favor of trading for Stafford. Just to give you an example of situations where I would consider it? If I'm the Rams, if I'm Tampa now, if I'm the Saints, if I'm Pittsburgh (Pitt is borderline since their OL has fallen apart) or Denver etc. Basically teams w/weapons and a chance to be competitive with a good FO, sure, go for it, a dumpster fire like the redskins? Hell no. There's a reason people leave here and become successful, but nobody actually comes here and becomes a part of something super successful. We're a bad organization. We've literally had what, 4 or 5 conference championship appearances and like 3 super bowl appearances from former staff guys who were here in the last ten years. We find talent, it just never sticks around, EVER, because you're not building anything here w/Snyder around, and our persistent incapability of solving the QB problem just compounds the problem.

No doubt. What he did was great for building team chemistry and creating a great room, otoh, it also costs us any chance whatsoever we had to land a franchise changing QB, which is the only thing that matters. Chemistry and a great room is huge, no doubt, but all of that in the world is 100% irrelevant if your QB is a bionic Alex Smith, a Heinickie, or another bionic QB in Fitzmagic. So yes, it was lovely if you weren't paying attention to the long term cost of each win, but that franchise turn around killed us in the same way an extra win or 2 in '11 took us from Andrew Luck to RGIII. Were those two wins worth that cost? No chance, but many fans always say yes in the moment, because they can't cheer for the future, preferring immediate gratification, ignoring the fact that futures hang on moments like that. We lost out on Trever Lawrence and Just Fields and Mac Jones etc for a couple of extra wins and a 1 and done playoff exit, same with Andrew Luck. Green Bay lost Troy Aikman when they won a season finale in 1988 (and the freaking Cowboys got 3 Lombardi Trophies because of that one Packers victory in December of 1988), they were only saved from that mistake by the Falcons stupidity in trading Favre for peanuts (thank you Jerry Glanville).

x1000. It's absolutely ridiculous they didn't go QB in 2020 and 2021. Absolutely ridiculous, and those of us in the know we're already screaming bloody murder for years that the drafts you couldn't go QB in were '19 and '22, and what do we do? It's just bad process, pure and simple. Hell, when the cowboys weren't sure about Aikman, they doubled down and took Steve Walsh in the supplemental. Suddenly we think we're set with Haskins after a year of already learning he's a last in first out clown? Beyond idiotic. I understand going against the owner costs you your job but so what. How many people are hiring you after you took Herbert? What position is Snyder in if you take Herbert anyway and he does what he did in '20? The idea that there's some terrible risk here is kinda crazy to me. Work for a clown, and be tarred with his moronic picks, or go down w/your own? Seems pretty simple for me. Easy for me to say, I know, but still, life's too short, sometimes it really comes down to taking a stand, and what's the loss really, you get fired by Snyder? Big ----ing deal. Who cares? It will likely come out a god blessing to be canned by such an ---head. I'm not, I don't want any of them other than Watson, and I'd rather draft a QB than trade for Watson unless I can get him on a discount (like 2 firsts, for Watson and their #2 in '23). This team needs to find its own star QB, not trade the house for some AARP option for the fifth time in 20 years, expecting it to work out better than the other four failed trades worked.

And get Andrew Luck. Yep, I'd double down on that. We were two flukey results away from having the 1.01 that year and all of this being irrelevant (especially since we built a better OL than the Colts did during that time period).

Btw, the latter point, it didnt make me feel better. The Stafford move is fine for a team that's a player away, were we? I think this year showed we clearly weren't, and I am not a fan of trading a giant pile of picks for a QB in his mid-thirties with a bad back. That's a non-starter. I'm okay with going after the rare vet availability like Drew Brees nearly 20 years ago or Watson now, where you can buy the bulk of their prime, but when you're buying their likely decline? No thank you. Wilson, Rodgers and Stafford are all too old, and two of the three have a lot of injury dings on them that would have me "out". I'd rather try to nail a QB in the draft because a huge portion of the value in hitting on a QB is the rookie deal. If you have to trade away multiple firsts AND have to give up the huge contract there is little value in that if the player, on top of that, is old. It makes zero sense. We've literally done a discount version of that 4 times in the last 23 years and its literally NEVER worked. Brad worked for some, not for me, Boonell was a disaster, McNabb was even worse, and Alex Smith actually ruined our ability to land an elite QB through his heroics in one season, while derailing other season(s) with his injuries. I'm not a fan of that pretty much ever. I'm a draft and develop guy unless you can get a steal, Brees was a steal, Watson wouldn't be a steal but at this point he'd come at a reasonable discount, especially compared to his talent (top 8 QB in the league with top 3 upside).

Clausen had a 1st round grade going into his final year in college so he had pedigree. His stock fell to 1st/2nd round turn pick. It's not apples and oranges to me as Clausen was basically a 1st rounder on body of work that fell to 2nd with an iffy final year (damn early 2nd as well), and Haskins was elevated due a 1 and done great single year at a flagship program beyond where he was graded (mid 2nd to early 3rd was what I heard earlier). Now as for Rosen, it is kind of weird you say that because I didn't actually have Rosen #1 in that class, I ended up Baker as my #1 (you can tell by the fact that I took Baker on multiple Dynasty Superflex teams. Indeed I tend to flip flop over Darnold and Rosen, it was a struggle for me. I picked Lamar Jackson on one where he was inexplicably still available in the late 1st. I avoided Josh Allen except in an RSO league where he was still there in the early 3rd in a 10 team league (everyone hated him because of his lack of accuracy). It's not an emotional viewpoint. Its pure logic. WIth the Dan, I'd just leave, I'd make the point, and if he was dead set on his guy, I'm out. You're working for a garbage organization and everyone league wide knows it, I very much doubt other teams would hold against you a conflict with that dolt snyder. Yes, easy for me to say, but is it really worth it to not only work for Snyder, but be submarined by his idiocy and have his stupidity smeared on you if you give in? Screw that. Make your case, take your guy and if he fires you, so be it, or you can resign. Life is way too short to live under that kind of thumb. As to the outrage about Fields being out of place because he had a crappy first year, I don't agree, I'm about process. I can forgive good process that results in a bust. People make fun of busts all the time, but when a prospect has all the boxes ticked and fails anyway, but you did the scouting and evaluation, and the player just couldn't make the leap. In my view, that's good process and in the long run you win with good process. What I hate, and yeah I get emotional about it because for me, forgiving misses w/good process is easy, forgiving bad process stupdiity like our LB pick last year? That's ignoring all the research and data that's gone into pulling back the confusion over what represents value and what doesn't in drafts in general and just getting your guy and ignoring value and innumerable studies that have gone down to help make the process simpler, easier, more efficient and efficacious. Instead, no, our LB's, suck, lets get a good LB. It's mindnumbingly stupid dinosaur decision making to me. Betting the house on a QB prospect with a great CV? I can get behind that because it pays off either way. A big hit and your set, a big miss, and by the time you figure the miss out, you have bottomed out and have your 1st rounders back (usually it takes 2-3 years to lock in an evaluation on a QB unless you've drafted a real mega clown like Haskins). That's my deal. I don't have all the answers with prospects, I just have the process, that's it. At this point I have no clue which QB will hit and which won't, I'm just much better with RB's, and WR's than QB's other than sniffing out definitive busts (and even then, I miss on Rosen's as you mention, and hell, that whole freaking class I basically had backwards other than Baker (who was #3, and I had #1).