The Consigliere

Im kinda surprised at how cheap trade ups have been for QB's in recent years. Needless to say, if all I needed to offer was our 1st, next years first and something else, I'd say done before this sentence was ended with this period. I'm speaking of Fields. I'd trade up for Lance as well, but if Fields falls, I'd be significantly more aggressive. I wonder what last thing we'd need to add to jump ahead of teams that are in that 9-16 zone?

Yep, I'm stunned. I can't believe how stupid teams are being about Fields and even Lance, but when you look back, over the past 10+ years we've seen teams trade the farm for some very suspect QB prospects, dial it back to '11 and it's even worse in terms of at slot QB drafting, and trade ups. Bortles, Gabbert, the entire '11 class really other than Cam, Goff and Wentz on need rather than talent for 1 and 2, Trubisky over Mahomes, and Watson, Danny Dimes top 6 overall, Tua and Herbert falling past us last year etc. Just a ton of absolute grand mal stupidity. Now we got even more. It's wild. I'm afraid we won't do the trade up, really afraid, because we absolutely should sell evertyhing to move up to get Fields/Lance if they are available at 4 or lower, period, no second thoughts whatsoever (w/Fields the primary target). Next years QB class sucks, we don't get him this year, unless we go 0-16 and you have a Cam in '16, Mahomes in '17, Kyler not going to baseball type scenario, we're kinda screwed for years plural at the position. I don't understand why Carolina did that other than maybe they felt they couldn't get their true target because the Niners and someone else are/is taking them. Maybe Carolina was dead set on a guy and the intel is 100% they can't get him, they can move up to Atlanta's pick etc (which btw, is incredibly stupid, if Atlanta has a swindle deal in place w/Carolina, they should pull the trigger, Matt Ryan could be good for another 2-5 years, and then they could implode for a QB after that). really confused with what's going on. I do think what Carolina might do is trade Bridgewater to recoup assets for a trade up? But w/o a trade, and Bridgewater is making lots of money, they don't really have the picks to make the deal anymore. I also, as a Darnold, kind of fan, found the compensation insane. Guy had a 1+1 left on his rookie deal. I can't understand why anyone would pay that much for a guy who has to get paid his rookie option that soon, when you don't even know if he has a chance to avoid being a bust. Regardless though, this will be the first time he's ever played for a competent offense and a competent offensive coach. It would not shock me at all if he's league average or better next year. McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, David Moore, and Ian Thomas? That's a legit collection of weapons. Not sure how strong their OL is. But yeah, all those picks? For once the Jets actually won a trade, at least temporarily (if he hits, they'll look mighty stupid, especially since they're bound and determined to take the QB4 at QB2).

FTR, GhostofAlvinWalton is one of my favorite moniker's ever. His flagged hit against Elway in the Super Bowl Video for XXII remains one of my favorite Redskins moments ever. If that happens, that will be the first time in forever that I will have not wished to have listened to my older brother, and become a redskins fan while growing up in the bay area circa 1979. I can't think of anything worse than trading the house, selling everything to move up, and then just take the wrong guy, like this is Mitchell Trubisky, Blaine Gabbert top 10, Blake Bortles top 2 level stupidity.

I'm lazy, so my view is pretty simple, he was the #1 ranked pro style QB in his recruiting class, he had an aborted, short college career because of covid, so he's got the 1.5 years of development to look at. Not ideal, but much better than just one year as a starter. If you can't get Fields, Lance, or Lawrence, he's the only guy to me worth investing a day 2 pick on because of the pedigree. I think he'd be a wise choice simply from the standpoint that we have now solution at QB long term and next years class sucks. Lastly day 3 QB speculation is beyond moronic. You basically get 1-2 hits per decade total with day 3 picks. The odds of hitting are so minimal, it's basically pointless. Yes we hit on Cousins and we got like half a hit on Ferrotte 25+ years ago, expecting more hits and when they'll be 25-35 Hakel's and Hamdan's for every usable guy is just a total waste to me especially when you also consider that teams like to draft players w/special teams skill sets on day 3 so they can justify the roster spot if the player aint ready (and QB's never play special teams). For me, it's trade up, Mills, the mystery guy next year, or '23.

I just have never agreed with the premise. The trade idea works both ways. If you hit, you're set, and if you miss, it is so severe that you tumble down badly because of asset loss, and normally you can try right again by the time you've figured out you screwed up (2+ years) because you've surrendered those picks by then. The only reason that didn't happen with RGIII was because we hit on Cousins. If we hadn't hit on Cousins, we'd have been ready to go after QB's again in time for the '14 or '15 class, again for the '17 class ad infinitum. It's not hard. You either hit, or try again. It's so so so so so so so so so much better than doing what we've been doing since Gibbs I ended. '93: Veteran Stop Gap '94 Rookie Busts '99 Vet Stop gap '02: Speculative Rookie pick bust '03 Replaced with vet stop gap '04 Avoid loaded QB class, due to Boonell '05: Whiff on Rodgers eval, obsess on Campbell, bust. '10: Veteran Stop Gap '12: RGII Trade Up '13-'17: Cousins Hit '18: Vet Stop Gap '19: Draft Bust '20-'21 Vet Stop Gap? We could've used the '04, '15, '18, '20 classes to solve QB, but instead we drafted our speculative guys in mostly bad classes ('94, '02, '05, '19) and filled in the holes with veteran stop gaps, a lot of this is bad luck, but in '04, in '12, in '17, '18, and '20 we could've pretty easily positioned ourselves to solve the problem, we just weren't willing to risk the play, and settled for vets instead, or just missed when we did choose to pull the trigger and in bad classes (except for '12 when we just missed). We should pull the trigger in this class just like we should've in '20, but we'll likely screw it up, yet again going QB in the wrong class, and going random position in the right one instead yet again. We never learn that lesson. If you don't have a QB, you don't have anything.

I would do the Niners trade, or offer an elite DL and multiple firsts to get him. Without a second thought. We hit, or we miss and reboot down the line, but I think that's a hit, a huge hit. Fields all day. Feels like Atlanta will steal him at 4 but man, they owe Matt Ryan so much money in '21 and '22.

Somebody who doesn't have a four year old, please break down how many of the guys we drafted the last few years were also interviewed. Lol, not giving orders, but I can't recall any relevant link over the years between interviews and players actually being targeted in the draft.

😄

And btw, I eat my misses gladly. I liked the freaking Josh Doctson pick, I screamed bloody murder that we took Scherrf over Leonard Williams (seems like a push now, but probably a win when you consider it pushed the Giants into reaching for Flowers), I thought Ramsey would eventually be league average, I hated taking Sean Taylor over a QB or trading down (my plan was Udeze/Wilfork), I actually talked myself into the troika of pass catching busts we took in the 2nd in '08, I was fine with the RGIII trade (and still am and still would be for another similar trade for Fields), I had no idea who the heck the DB's were that we drafted late on day 3 in recent years and smashed on (Curl and the poor kid out of Va Tech that had to retire). I miss on plenty, and I own it. I hated the hell out of the McLaurin pick, and am happy as hell we hit on it, but still think it was a 90% bad process pick (him hitting is the biggest outlier hit at WR in a decade, but he did provide a caveat for future WR evaluations: sometimes guys don't break out because they play at Ohio State/Clemson/Georgia/Alabama etc. Then again Ruggs was McLaurin, the bust version, so he showed you how it could go wrong in the same way N'Keal Harry and Tee Higgins were basically the same prospect, with the same liability (lack a second gear and top end speed to separate. Doesn't matter for Higgins, he already looks like a pro bowler, while Harry now looks more like an in line TE lol). Oh and btw, while I nailed AJ Brown in '19 (and had him everywhere, just like Godwin and Juju the year before (well Juju I couldn't trade up for so i only had him on 2 teams), I loved Harry and had him #1 like everyone else in that class. Whoops. For those on the DK Metcalf tip, do remember, he didn't have a single healthy season in college, no profile, and no route tree, he was a deep threat who played like 4-6 games tops a year with an immaculate body and athleticism, it was madness he fell as far as he did, but there was a reason he wasn't going #1. It's harder to justify why AJ Brown went where he went as his college career was basically and the analytical statistical embodiment of DK Metcalf's freakish body. Anyway, I'm babbling. I will own my stupid needless to say, if I miss on Fiels, I'll own it, I loved Josh rosen after all (and still think Darnold is an interesting speculative venture if he's a day 3 pick trade target or late compensatory zone day 2 guy).

Yeah, I'd sell the house for Fields needless to say. Someone is going to straight up steal him in the draft, and it's gonna be like us and other teams passing on Herbert, and even more closely, everyone league wide passing on Russell Wilson who ended up the best in the '12 class (in fairness, I always thought Luck was better, just sabotaged by a totally incompetent F.O., but Wilson became a clear HOF talent years ago, and Luck still had more to prove, Colts fault or not, before he retired, so Wilson gets the GOAT of that class). I am convinced that at worst, teams are going to get an elite passing QB with dual threat talent in Fields, and they're gonna get him after 2-3 vastly inferior talents go ahead of him to idiot teams that have no clue what they're doing. From time to time there are clear moments like this in drafts. The trio of RB's that inexplicably went in the top 10 in '05 (Caddy, Ronnie and the late Cedric), the '11 QB class that was high comedy, the pair of WTF FSU QB's that went first round when anyone who ever watched them knew they were busts predraft (Ponder and Manuel). The Gabbert and Bortles classes where most fans rightly were "what in the actual <expletive>" are Blake and Blaine doing at the top of QB classes in 2 of like 3 years. You can see some of this coming a mile away. The fact that Wentz, and Goff are now kinda, "ehhh, we'll trade you them just to get them off the roster" is not surprising when they screamed "REACH" in their class (I warmed to Wentz eventually, but as a Cal alum, Goff always struck me as a placeholder QB, good enough to start, and no more). Trubisky was always a kind of, "Ummm, I guess, how many games has he done this for and why do we think he's better than Watson?". Fields is gonna be one of those guys where looking back you go, "How in the hell did they take, this guy, that guy, and this other guy ahead of him." Maybe he ends up not living to the promise I see (top 10 QB every year like Wilson), but he's damn near bust proof to me. All the other guys other than Lawrence are at best 50/50 or less, Haskins style prospects (I like Lance just because, if he hits, he's gonna be a "HOLY ----!!!!!" level talent, at least he's that. Mac Jones, and BYU Rich Boy? Please.

Me neither. I'm borderline out on my redskins fandom for a while, but Mills is at least intriguing. The #1 Dropback in his QB class, Covid wrecks what would've been his first full season as a starter, so you have a chance here to potentially draft a guy who might have been a first rounder in '22, at a discount in a loaded '21 class. It's interesting, I'll give it that. I'd rather have a QB who can move more, but at least he has the raw skill set to do the job. I don't have a clear idea of where he's projected. Sounds like he's got a grade somewhere in the 40-80 zone in terms of draft slot overall, but I have no feel. If we could get him in round 3 I'd like it a lot more than in round 1. But after the big guys are gone, he's the only one I have the slightest interest in, otherwise I'd just pass and tank for the '23 class which is impossible lol.

I wonder if part of it is that the '22 class is not good, it's '13, '14, '19 (if Kyler played baseball instead) redux. Guys in that second and third tier of this class are basically at least as good as next years guys. Mills is a former 5 star recruit, would have had a cleaner, more interesting profile to look at w/o Covid, now maybe you get a discount on him because of the short Pac-12 season. Rivals had him as the #1 pro style QB in his recruiting class. espn had him #2 pro style, 247sports (i think scout.com) also had him #1 for pro style QB recruits. In terms of pedigree, he's the value of the draft if you can get him day 2.

Agreed, if he has Toney above Bateman, that's just high comedy, hell Toney over Rondale Moore is also high comedy. These guys are gonna be eating it a few years from now when the only top 4 guy that deserved it for a bunch of them ends up being Chase (maybe Smith, we'll see). If Bateman, and Moore end up going outside the top 4 of the position, teams are going to be getting steals exactly the same way they did with AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and my huge miss in mega outlier Terry McLaurin two years ago. Then again they totally bottled it last year as well, taking Ruggs over Lamb, and Jefferson. I'll own being off with Reagor (had him ahead of Jefferson), but I nailed Lamb last year, and remain utterly baffled that not only did Ruggs go way ahead of him, but that Jeudy did as well and that a pile of teams with WR needs either passed entirely on Lamb, or took the wrong guy. I still can't understand how the heck Dallas always has elite mega WR's fall to them (Dez Bryant a decade ago, Lamb last year). They really learned their lesson passing on Randy Moss for a scrub. The rest of the NFL seems to just not get it at WR. We'll see if that continues this year.

Every year I find myself wishing we had some database matching interviews with actual draftees. I never know how much, if any, correlation there actually is. That's insane, that being said, you can immediately change it to 4.29. Historically non-combine times when compared to the combine average out to about .05 seconds faster than actual combine times (which are fundamentally more accurate due to the laser timing mixed with adjustments that are made after comps evaluate the start/movement etc. But good lord, even 4.29, it's just insane.

The Dak deal is the smart deal, the idiotic deal was the Zeke deal. You do not give RB's a second contract, let other idiots make the mistake of signing a RB just in time for him to hit the age cliff (in fairness to Zeke, his decline in '20 on a per game basis was 1000% linked to Dak's injury, it would not surprise me if Zeke had a bit of a bounce back this year). Franchise QB money is gonna go nuts soon enough as the next tv deal may come close to doubling up the previous deal. That means everything goes up, including QB's. The best time to sign/resign a FA QB is now, before that money floods the market. Dallas aint winning anything with that D, so they built up a strength, the offense, which is loaded with 2 legit starting RB's, 2 legit TE's, and 3 legit WR's, and an OL, that when healthy is still good. They'll just have to use the KC model and try to outscore everyone before saving money by cutting Zeke in a year or two, and some other guys (Amari, I'm looking at you).

In round 2 I'm all about a trade up for Bateman if he falls or Rondale Moore, after that I'm after guys like Terry that could come out as a discount. Yep on AJ Brown, he and Metcalf falling as far as they did was high comedy, I wish I could have back my concerns about Metcalf at the time, but I was legit worried about his routes, and incredibly worried about his injury history but even so, some of the WR's that were selected ahead of him were so thoroughly idiotic (JJAW, Hardman) that it beggars belief. AJ Brown was my #2 WR in the '19 class, so his performance wasn't surprising to me, and I cleaned up in dynasty leagues with that. Thankfully I didn't have a lot of 1.01's that year, or I'd even have more Harry than I actually ended up having (about 4 shares compared to 9 of Brown). Harry's performance has been a reminder that while athletic metrics are way more relevant to TE's and RB's than they are to WR's, they still matter. I remain shocked that he hasn't been able to at least be a size/target weapon for jump balls. Both him and JJAW are misses primarily based upon athleticism.

After what happened with that Seattle OL, nothing seems to be sticking with Parsons. It's weird, I keep seeing him viewed as a first rounder despite him appearing to be a criminally minded epic pos. If the story is true, he's beyond vile. I'm surprised this isn't sticking to him more.

I like Marshall. He's not in my top two tiers, but slides in right before the position falls off a bit for me. Right now I'm looking at it as: Tier 1: 1. Jamar Chase Tier 2: 2. Rashod Bateman 3. Rondale Moore 4. Devonta Smith 5. Jaylon Waddle Tier 3: 6. Terrence Marshall 7. T. Terry (FSU Freak) 8. A. St. Brown 9. T. Wallace 10. K. toney Slot guys: Amari Rodgers Elijah Moore Sneaky Day 3 pick Another 5 star recruit that didn't deliver at Michigan (following the Donovan Peoples Jones Paradigm) Nico Collins My targets would be Rondale Moore, and Tamorrian Terry. Ideal would be to steal Bateman in round 2, but he's going to fly up boards after his 40 the other day and probably break into late round 1 for a playoff team that needs a WR, or a garbage team that needs WR talent and trades into late round 1. I see Moore as the best value. He's a top 10 talent who sounds like will be available during day 2, and at that rate he's a mega steal. I like Terry because he's another guy you can get with the FSU Dumpster Fire discount, like Dalvin Cook in '17 and Cam Akers in '20 (although in fairness, Akers went much higher than people were expecting and the rams were very smart to grab him (though I had Swift, Taylor and Dobbins ahead of him). He's an absolute monster, gigantic size and sub 4.4 speed and production despite the team being utter manure. I like Nico Collins as a chance to snap up crazy value the way the Browns did with Peoples-Jones. I had Peoples Jones a lot higher than most last year because of the pedigree and the fact that Michigan's problems and perpetual lack of a QB was killing production numbers for their playmakers. Now it might be Collins turn to be a steal for someone. I honestly have no idea when he'll go, guys with his profile can go late day 2, or fall deep into day 3, but he's a guy that's a great roll of the dice option especially if he falls into day 3.

Supposedly it was him vs Mims going into that senior bowl, or whatever bowl they went into, and Mims blew his --- right out of the water. Never had high hopes w/Gandy Golden, was just cautiously optimistic, w/little reason to be so other than that he was solid. Not surprised they've cooled a great deal on him over the past 10 months.

Was listening to Matt Kelley last week and he was laughing about how so many of the mock guys with major media are 1000% lost on how to do the mocks because they haven't had nearly as much access to scouts, and insiders are they normally do, and as a result, they're boards are a total mess, it sounds like the lack of a combine, and basic social distancing requirements are making a huge mess out of valuations, and plotted out boards to help assist in strategy with trading up and down and expectations. A lot of the kind of bonehead panic picks of drafts past where teams were surprised by a pick, and forced a need pick in a panic rather than going off their tiered value boards really seem like they could happen. Also explains why Toney is so much higher than he should be (personal opinion, but I think his rating is beyond idiotic). Very curious about how it plays out. Really bummed we've moved out so many of our guys in such an unstable year.

This approach almost never works. The vast majority of vet QB's never hit free agency so no they aren't always out there (if you mean good ones), and when they do, the bidding war tends to lead them to teams that are willing to pay and contend, and we're not able to address both of those topics honestly AND unlike Brees in '05, only 2 of those guys are young, 1 is in his prime (but is mediocre+), I just don't see any of them looking at the worst owner in the NFL with no franchise relevance in thirty years, and say, "I want to go there". End of the line guys, sure, but not guys looking to top off their career like Brady just did. Lastly, this means you skip the NFL cheat code which is a franchise QB on a rookie deal that renders your cap, heaven set for 5 years.

It's not high. Drafts have tiers, the preset values are based on the NFL from decades ago, all drafts are different, '22 sucks at QB, and isn't great at WR and is awful at RB, the current draft is shallow but strong at the top at RB, deep with top end talent and second tier WR talent and slot guys, and the best TE class in years, and one of the best QB drafts of the past 35 years at the top. '22 is the polar opposite. You need to work within the environment of particular classes, and take advantage of inefficiencies like the draft trade value chart Dallas used, like the fact that the '22 draft is super weak in what we need, but the '21 draft is well stocked and act accordingly. Buffalo had a strong defense and not much else in '18, they knew the '19 QB class was straight trash, and so used assets they'd back loaded, to maneuver to get their guy so they wouldn't have to wait for '20 or '21 and it worked. I hated Josh Allen and would not recommend betting on a QB figuring out accuracy after college, that virtually never works ever, but props to them as it has, at least in the short term, regardless they handled QB right. We have the DL, we don't have the OL, or the back 7 on defense or depth at WR. We can decide to let this DL fade into the sunset or trade pieces of it to get that QB and other pieces of help, if we stand pat and pick at slot and tinker with FA we are screwed. We have an overabundance in an area that can make you mediocre but can't make you good or great. They need to think real long and hard on what to do. If I was sold on Fields and Lance (I am on Fields, less so on Lance though I like hime), I'd sell the farm to move up to get him because QB help via the draft is at least two years away and if you hit on a Fields or Lance you are set and the draft capital/player capital loss is irrelevant, and if you miss, you'll suck soon enough anyway, putting you back in position to fix yourself with the '23 and '24 classes. That's how I'd handle it. If we can't move up, I'd start trading pieces to acquire draft capital to maneuver in the '23 and '24 classes that are almost certainly better at QB than '22 and wait it out. But yeah, I'd trade almost anything to move up for Fields or Lawrence, and I'd do a standard trade for Lance if I was sold (2 firsts, a second, and a player and a day 3 pick whatever, but I wouldn't sell '23 or '24 assets).

x1000

Next years QB class is straight trash. Maybe you mean acquiring draft capital to trade for a QB? If not it’s pointless, this was the year to tank for a QB, so was last year. We botched it and now we’re screwed. It really is as simple as that and yes it is the end all be all (responding to a separate poster there) Without a QB, building a contender is a pipe dream. Rivera is set to turn us into a perpetual Norv-like team in terms of W/L record. Not bad enough to get the draft capital to fix the problems and not good enough to matter barring a saints getting Brees type scenario.

After Mahomes, Watson, Allen, and kinda Baker hit in '17 and '18, and Kyler, Burrow and Herbert hit in '19 and '20, following uneven at best, horrible at worst QB production from the '12-'16 classes barring Luck, and Wilson, I just don't think that's possible. If you want to move up from outside the blue chip zone and the second tier zone, that's just not gonna cut it. I think any franchise that thinks of themselves as holding draft capital that can get a top 4 guy this year, is going to want the sun and moon to move out as low as 19. That's why my offers always included Chase Young, which I know isn't happening. I dont think you can make it inside the top 5 without Young, and if you aren't offering Young, it's gonna be 3+ firsts type nightmare again.