The Consigliere

I don't understand this kind of take. People have been grading drafts for decades, it's based on perceived value, you take the aggregate board, you take the players taken, where they're taken, and you see whether people got value, or not, and where people reached or not. Yes it lacks nuance, the nuance of reaching for Dotson is that we apparently did not see Burks and Skyy Moore and others in same tier as Dotson, I think that's clinically insane, but at least there's reasoning based upon it. That being said, I'm not going to give them a free pass for it either. If you have Dotson rated a legit tier above Moore, and Burks and because of that you take Dotson 8+ picks before he would've gone you sure as hell better be right about both Doston AND with Burks and Moore (I think they're wrong, at the very least with one of them, very possibly both), if they aren't, you can bash them even more, and yes media people are justified in taking issue with it, just as you can back pocket the idea that if they had traded down substantially there very possibly could have been a tier break happening, just as there was between 11 and 16 (with Hamilton, Jameson and Olave all flying off the board). As for taking Nystrom to task, why? Isn't the burden of proof on this FO and this organization in general? They've been bad to terrible for decades. The media's skepticism with us is warranted and on aggregate boards we did reach and reach big time on our first two picks, the two most valuable by far we had. It's nice that we got value, or at best neutral value with many of our day 3 picks and Robinson but he isn't wrong here. This does look like the worst draft we've had in years and years. Could change, but the value, based on where players were expected to go, isn't there. Maybe a few years from now, when we know what they are as players, and not just draft capital assets, it will be different, but I'm skeptical. I think Dotson will be fine, I disagree w/him about Olave, I don't see Olave being substantially more valuable than Dotson, it wouldn't shock me at all if they had similar career production markers, but I do agree that we risked a lot in trading down, because we traded legit shots at franchise changing talent, for quick fixes and there's nothing I hate more than a selection predicated on immediate help for a coach's job security (Dotson) over superior talent that will benefit us more long term (Jameson Williams), but that's if he's healthy, so who knows. I think in the fullness of time, Dotson will be a perfectly fine WR, somewhere between a 20th best in the league and 40th best in the league caliber guy, not a bust. I think the 2nd rounder will look stupid, incredibly stupid, just as it did on draft day. Robinson is fine, he'll excite people who miss the more punishing run game from decades ago, the Howell selection was a god send in terms of need and value, but that's still at best, what a 40-45% shot before draft capital submerged it far deeper (the reason that matters is that Howell is not going to get the attention, the work, and the practice with the first team that a guy I view as inferior like Pickett will get, and that automatically weakens the chances he hits-for Howell, landing with us wasn't really ideal, we're a franchise that hasn't drafted and developed a legit franchise stud QB since freaking sammy baugh, not exactly a great track record).... I don't know, I'm going on and on so I'll stop, I's just reiterate before I do that I find the complaining about the grades as tiresome as people find the grades themselves, especially the misinterpretation of them, as grades of anything other than a perception of value gleaned from the draft.

My favorite part of it is that the past 30 years, it's basically been a debate between "---- and ----ier". Kind of relates to the people bashing the critiques of the draft in the draft thread. Its been 30 years. You guys still think the media is wrong and the team is right at this point when it comes to critiques?

Any reference is based upon them both being day 3 guys that were value. Cousins had a 3rd/4th round valuation if memory serves, but never came close to top 10-20 during his Michigan State days like Howell did in '20 and the '21 offseason. He tumbled badly, but his play on the field when he had talent around him slotted him as a 1st/2nd round caliber QB in a bad QB draft (in fairness, Cousins had a late 3rd/4th round grade in a great QB class).

I don’t see either happening. I see us sitting in the 8-12 zone again just like Vegas does. Every year they’ll undersell and oversell some but they’re more reliable than die hard fans of their own teams. Last year they were too low on the Titans, raiders, bengals and pats and too high on the afc north squads, and the Seahawks. It’s possible their wrong about us but to my mind the only times they’ve missed badly in the past 25 years has been ‘99, ‘05-‘07, ‘12, ‘15. Basically they’re more or less right about 19-20 of the past 25 years or so give or take a year or two. I see a range of 5-9 wins, over under from Vegas is 7.5 and sharps have been hitting the under hard (-130). That seems just about right, 7-10 to 8-9. Floor of 5, ceiling of 9-10 wins, sweet spot about 7.5

Not an argument. There are a gazillion more undradted free agents all time than #1 and #2 etc picks. There wasn’t even a freaking combine of any sort for more than the first 50 years of the leagues history. Teams had largely no clue what they were doing w/prospects for 5 decades starting from the 1920s onward. Finlays point in another tweet is also of the “no duh” sort level of mindlessness. Every year we hear those same takes. No kidding. What you evaluate after a draft is the use of asset value in a draft. What you evaluate two years later is the nfl asset value of the selections. It doesn’t take time to figure out where teams blew it like say the raiders clueless use of asset value in ‘19 but it does take time to ascertain what degree of value if any said player would end up having long term in the league. Right now we’re judging how effectively teams used draft capital, that’s it. The yearly lectures on it taking time or the stupidity of draft grades is just beyond cliche at this point and of no utility.

It’s so easy to envision that.

Nailed it. Guy was a top 10-15 pick on boards last summer and a poor final season was plenty explicable due to outside factors. I don’t think any of the QBs other than Willis had elements on their CV that clearly made them more attractive prospects than Howell. Doesn’t change the fact that at the end, in a class nobody liked, he was more of a 2nd/3rd talent and so a 35-45% caliber chance guy to me, but to get that where we did is miles better than any day 3 QB I can remember in years and years.

Interesting analysis, I’d add that people are drastically overweighting his ‘21 and underrating what he accomplished when surrounded by actual talent. They give Pickett a top 20 grade for playing like hot garbage until his final season and Howell goes 120 some odd picks later for one mediocre season after several superb ones. I had and still have Howell way above him but draft capital means Pickett will get far more chances than Howell, especially if we go hunting for a new coach in 23.

In the end I think I settled on him as my #2 behind Willis, Corral #3. I had zero interest in Pickett. Stunned he lasted so long.

Huge value finally. Really hard to imagine he isn’t at least a backup in this league, legit starting potential and reasonable dual threat ability. Pretty stunned he was available that late.

To be fair this is part of the reason I didn’t want players overly system specific because I expect them all to be s canned by ‘23 or ‘24 at tge latest anyway. Only NFC teams I’m confident we’re better than are the giants, lions, falcons, and Seahawks. Playoffs? I don’t see it at all and most of the crapper teams also had good drafts unlike us. We do need things to go wrong to avoid losing our ‘23 2nd though.

I’m gonna go w/complete s show. Not an inspiring draft at all, tank for ‘23 is on!!

Pretty much. Last pick was fine in terms of valuation, the first was a reach but understandable considering they had Moore, Burks and those guys a tier drop below. The 2nd was pure 1000% bad process. Simple as that, like using a pick on a long snapper last year. Robinson at around 100 is fine. I’d prefer signing a guy like Mack on a short deal or Justin jackson but Robinson’s fine and much better value than the 2nd rounder.

Wentz.

And they’re maxed out at Alabama so not a lot of more room for growth.

3 hits since 2000 in round 2 and it will continue to be 3 lol. That was pathetic, at least they didn’t trade up.

I'm a bit wishy washy on it, but I do think Willis is definitely worth the shot, and considering Howell carried a top 10 tag coming into the season from a lot of people, but then lost his top 2 WR's and a super elite RB (in terms of analytics anyway in certain metrics), I tend to ignore his '21, and eval him more on the '20 production and what he added this year (a rushing element). I think Howell is interesting, Corral is kind of big arm exciting, but offense he ran scary, plus slight of frame. I'd definitely pull the trigger on Willis and Howell the more I think about it, but I'm not sure about Corral, and also worth noting, I think I, and most people deep in their hearts, know there's zero chance they take a QB with the 2nd rounder unless they trade down again, or Willis falls to them and the latter seems monstrously unlikely, and the former while possible should almost certainly yield a different positional prospect so it's largely immaterial. I expect a QB to be selected with one of the fourth's.

Don't steal from '23, if anything, add picks to '23, it's a better class. Besides, at this point with 4 picks in that supposed mega tier of 25-130 or whatever, we have plenty anyway.

I don't know why we should care how it effects Wentz. He has had do or die seasons for two years straight and folded like a lawn chair. There's no reason whatsoever he should be given a respect at QB that hasn't been earned, and that Philly and Indy, who invested far more into him, did not give him either. If we have a QB we like a lot at slot, take him, if we don't, don't. Willis strikes me as an automatic selection, Corral and Howell I'd need to think more on, but if the medicals are good, I'd probably pull the trigger on any of the 3 over other need guys because I think all are reasonably good prospects, guys that would likely go in that 20-50 area in a good QB draft. Howell at one point was rated far higher, Corral was one of the fast risers before getting hurt, I like all 3 a bit and view them as worth the risk, pretty easily. Oddly enough, I didn't feel that way about Pickett, upside was basically bad version of Andy Dalton and that's a pass for me, I think Willis is a star or a bust, one or the other, I thinK Corral has about a 40% chance, maybe 43-45% chance of hitting as a top 8-14 type guy, and a 55-57% chance of being a career backup. I see Howell as a 50/50 guy.

To be fair about Guice, the key angle's there were largely unknown, namely, he'd sustain a pile of injuries AND he was a sociopath, but the latter was kept under lock and key until later w/regards to the public, and the former developed in the pros.

Do you think we have an answer to the QB question on the roster? I don't. FTR, I don't see any way they pull the trigger, maybe w/the late 3rd, but not with the 2nd, the trade of massive assets for Wentz if he stays healthy (a 3rd, a pick swap in the 2nd, and a 2nd in '22 if certain achievements are made is a LOT for a guy that was likely to be cut, Boonell redux, except even worse in asset lost, but at least Wentz is in his erm, prime).

Feel free to make fun of me if true, I think this is less likely than Brandon Weeden becoming a Hall of Famer.

I wonder why they didn't rate Skyy Moore or Burks at that level.

Wentz is basically on a 1 year deal, and in prove it or lose it seasons in '20 and '21 seasons he lost it in Philly and then in Indy. While it doesn't help the team at all short term, if a Corral, a Howell, or Willis were there at 47, we'd be insane to pass. Having Wentz in house is basically not much more than having Kirk Cousins in his last year, a stat compiler that doesn't actually help his team, and tends to alienate teammates, add in that he can be gone after this year, and the truth is, we don't have any long term solution at QB, we have a 50/50 shot at best at having an answer. If we get a guy that I think was a legit bottom 10 first round talent at QB, at 47, you just make the pick and hope for the best. If you hit, you've got an answer for half a decade, if you miss, it's a mid 2nd, we miss on more than half of them typically anyway: Our hits the last twenty years are Fred Smoot, Preston Smith, and what looks like a hit with Cosmi. Maybe I'm missing somebody but it looks like were about 3 for our last 22 or so (am I missing any?). So I'm not sure why I should sweat pulling the trigger on a potential franchise guy (to be fair, I don't think any of them have franchise potential beyond Willis, I do think if Howell hit on his upside, he has that kind of Cousins zone of 10th-14th in the league, ability).

Nice take. I’m not a tape guy but that matches the core measurables to me in terms of athleticism and production. Olave actually had 10 career broken tackles but the point is the point despite a length and size advantage Dotson is much better at shaking free of tackles snd Olave is comically bad. I put it this way, we added a bit more bust risk mostly due to size concerns but also a higher ceiling prospect in exchange for trading down and picking up an extra 2 picks in the 90-125 zone which is supposedly the end of a fat tier that goes from around 20-130 or thereabouts. While Olave is a tier above Dotson to most, for what I want, I’d take Dotson (higher ceiling). Getting extra picks makes it sweeter. That being said, I would have just taken Jameson or Hamilton at 12 instead of the trade down, but this is better than Olave at 11 for me.