The Consigliere

I think it comes down to franchising # and those kinds of requirements alongside the salary cap #'s of the top producing options. The Best TE's in the league make 12-15 mill on their 2nd and 3rd deals, if you're picked top five you're making around 9-10 mill. It's not the best use of cap money to be investing draft capital and salary cap $$$ on guys like that. It just isn't, you have to think of how to allocate your $$$, and if you can find Laporta's and Mayer's and Kincaids and Mark Andrews on the regular between slot 25-75 for a fraction of that money, why are you spending top 5 draft capital as well? Just doesn't make sense. TE, like RB, is a situation where the salary cap #'s and value get distorted to the greatest degree (Center is probably another). Bowers is almost certainly gonna hit, but if you take him where he belongs (top 5 or 6) he's already being paid 4-5x Laporta's salary, and around 65-80% of top 3-5 veteran TE salary. Your money and draft capital could just be better used on the positions that are far more costly in free agency, where the benefits to your cap are far more pronounced (QB, OT, WR, Edge, DT, maybe CB).

In recent weeks I've seen a ton of guys argue that they are the best top 3 since '14, Scott Barrett poo poo'd the idea, he see's it as similar to '22, but I don't think the top of '22 was really close to these guys. I don't think Odunze is w/them, I think Nabers had one of those metrics based god mode years like Chase in '19, MHJR is just considered one of the best prospects ever and Odunze seems more like a guy whose typically the top WR in a really good class, like Garrett Wilson, which makes it the best top end I've ever seen or at least since like '96 and '14.

Yeah, I love them both too, and its nice he has the athleticism, but I'm not sold it's all that meaningful, once you're reasonably fast and athletic, your fine, the data from combine testing on WR's doesn't seem to connect w/success rate beyond being in basic thresholds, and Pearsall is beyond fine in terms of the thresholds.

I would like to think most of us are sticking to takes more because of alarm sensors about potential bust rate than anyone. I know I am. Supposedly Caleb is at that Luck/Burrow/Lawrence level of certainty (and 2 of the 3 hit more or less at that level while the other was a disappointment rather than bust), but honestly, with all of them save Caleb, who I haven't paid as much attention too, the chances of landing a mega stud are 1 in 3 to 1 in 4 probably, the chances of an adequate starter ramp it up to like 2.5 out of 5.25 and like 3 out of 5 or something on that level, that isn't close to certainty. For me, its just, bust risk I see with some is around 15-25% (Maye) and with others it feels like 35-55% (Daniels, JJ, Penix).... But how many here are positive they're guy is going to be a stud? I don't see much. Even with Warheads and Commando, I think the take is much more connected to confidence/conviction of the bust risk w/a Daniels versus the belief that Maye will be a star, hopefully I'm not getting their take wrong, but I certainly get that feeling. I'm not convince Maye is a star, I'm just a lot more worried Daniels either busts or is injury riddled or both, and that JJ is no more than a placeholder guy. That's why I'd rather go a different direction.

Oh you smashed it did you? Well, good news, as I think we all smashed the Wentz argument, or most anyway, except for the people that mattered :(. As for Lamar, we just disagree, and you are going to throw out #'s that don't agree w/what you saw on the tape, and his admittedly alarming, at best accuracy #'s, otoh, the adot # posted above is nuts and would explain some of it, possibly most (an adot that high is naturally going to result in poor completion #'s). But we are as far apart as two people could be on this topic, so further discussion is pointless.

In a purely selfish sense, I'd be super bummed if the Vikes got Maye as I'm trying to steal him in dynasty and if Maye gets Jefferson and Addison, nobody is letting him fall in rookie drafts. Good for him if it happens though.

You could read the arguments. It's really quite simple: Daniels: Checks a gazillion boxes suggestive of high bust rate, including very late big time breakout/overage prospect. Maye: Accuracy issues, and mechanics/feet. JJ: Small sample size trap, not enough reps period, some issues clearly in the data, along with some surprising positives in data that still can't negate the negative concerns. Penix: Injured, injured, injured, freaking sixth year senior, erratic accuracy issues etc. All of them have boxes checked suggestive of potential for bust. In my experience, the bulk of the data we have on Daniels is the most alarming of the available data because its most consistently linked with future bust issues, but of course, that's just an opinion. Take it as you see. For most of the Maye group, of which I'm part, the argument is simple: he's got some good metric data, he blew up immediately in his first starts, he has the ideal traits and measurements, and he did it all young, while the alarming traits are almost uniformly less alarming then the traits associated with Daniels, JJ and Penix (you can fix mechanics, and footwork, you can't change what happened at age 19/20/21 in college-either you were elite or you were not, you can't change being 6'4-235 or whatever, you either are tall with a big frame, or you're not etc). People are gonna disagree, there are different thinks people believe in or trust w/prospects. All I can tell you is that I've come to terms with the fact that its impossible to predict who will hit, nobody can do it with reliability, but you can unearth traits that are frequently amongst those associated with busts, and at least put yourself in a position where you know which prospects share traits associated with the Pickett's and the Zach Wilson's and Trubisky's etc. That's basically the best I think anyone can do. At that point you have to decide for yourself who you think has more of the most alarming, commonly held traits, and who doesn't, and if they're similar amounts, which are you more concerned with. For me, Daniels scares the hell out of me more, so I don't want him. Simple as that. too many of the neg's I see from misses in the past. That being said, if, and that's a big if, but if, the processing is so next level as said, it could reduce the risk, but even there, I'm suspicious of such things, after the yo-yo of the processing tests like S2, which told us Young would be much better than stroud and clearly was wrong....and yet it helped find Purdy so......? There's no easy answer....I just view Maye the least long term risky.....

I don't like Florio, lol, at all, I actually dislike him a bit, but his site was a rumor aggregator and as a result, got some stuff wrong and some right like any site. It's annoying, maybe its worse than annoying, but I don't really mind it. But Edelstein, my gawd man, just think of the exact polar opposite of espn's much beloved late, great John Clayton and Chris Mortenson, as an insider, smug, d-bagy, wrong litrerally every time he reports anything ever, real used car salesman vibe, and you've got him. There's like two edelstein bits uploaded to youtube for reasons unknown, one about the '91 draft, one about rich kotite, looks like he might have been right on the latter (at least his opinion of kotite's talent anyway). But my gosh, I still can't figure out how some people got some gigs. Just mind boggling.

Lamar absolutely annihilated Daniels numbers in terms of QBR every single year of college, save for Daniels QBR as a 5th year senior, and even at that age, Lamar was still better because Lamar was doing the same thing, but at the NFL. A #1 QBR ranking in college as a 5th year senior at age 22 does not trump a #1 QBR ranking in the NFL, at age 22, which is what Lamar produced in his 2nd year. I'm not gonna argue he was polished coming out, he wasn't, but he was a better prospect, period every single year of college in comparison except for Daniels '23, and even Daniel's '23 isn't more impressive than Lamar's profile when you compare what they were doing at similar ages. Lamar didn't need five freaking years to produce a season like Daniels produced in '23, he did that in his second year of college, in 2016, earning 4th in overall QBR #'s, which not coincidentally was why you saw him listed inside a bunch of top 3's and top 5's after the 2017 NFL draft in late April and May of '17. I don't really know why he fell like he did, though I know that Simmons never stops mentioning how irate he and Patriots fans were when they passed on a dropping Lamar for Sony Michel...but it seems quite clear that the argument that Daniels is or was a better prospect has to be premised on totally ignoring everything Daniels did for 80% of his college seasons which is just ridiculously silly, especially when you compare what they were doing at similar ages, it's no contest. The NFL botched this, period.

I think for the previous 2.5 months of this QB debate, I was laughing at people arguing for trading down because #1 it was a pointless argument as the entire reason we got the hires we did is because we got to use that 2nd overall on a QB, and #2 we were taking Maye. I never even considered the trading down idea and laughed at it, but a big part of that was I always assumed the pick was Maye, and never really bothered to dig into Daniels more than knowing it made no sense, but a few weeks ago it kinda hit me that: Yeah, if the pick was/is Daniels, I'd much rather trade down and take Penix instead because I think Penix could easily be a better QB or at least Daniels equal, and that Penix, while injury prone as hell in football, doesn't strike me as the injury risk Daniels does long term due to his running (and taking hits like "looney tunes characters". If I knew the pick was 100% Daniels, and I could get like 3 firsts, multiple 2nds, etc and just take Penix over Daniels? Yeah, I'd do that. I just wouldn't do it for Maye. It was disturbing to realize I always had a trade down insanity perspective in play, I just didn't realize it because I never seriously was concerned about us being stupid enough to take Daniels (or JJ for that matter) at 2. Now that we clearly are, yeah, I'd 100% take the trade down, draft Penix, and then reboot at QB in '26 if Penix busts or can't stay healthy. I much prefer that plan, to rolling the dice on Daniels. That being said, that isn't happening, so I just have to deal with the reality that we may just do something unbelievably foolish to me. At least there's some solace in that if those guys bust, we'll know within 18 months, and can take for '26. I don't think Maye gives you that, I think Maye gives you a high enough floor to where you don't know what to do for the 2nd contract a la Derek Carr/Jameis Winston etc (which to my mind, is the worst of all worlds).

71 is fine for Brooks, I'm just skeptical he'll last that long. I've heard him pre injury comped to poor man's Breece Hall, and Hall's a current top 3-5 RB talent in the league and a tier 1 guy period. Brooks is the only guy in the class w/that kind of ceiling. So sure, go for it. I also liked it simply for the fact that it kind of helps the '24 tank for a '25 pick in that he'll still be working his way back to full fitness until '25. the other backs are simply too speculative to me in terms of ceiling, I don't really see it w/most of them.

Florio's an insider w/a website that broke rumors and some of them have hit over the years, the guy who you really should hate, although he's soil at this point was Fred Edelstein, not only was he always full of ----, and unapologetic, apparently he also did some time after being on espn for several years as a talentless, hack self-promoting scumbag. He was the penultimate, Florio can't hold his jock in terms of false rumors, and nonsense-self promotion, Florio actually has produced some utility over the years. I'm still trying to figure out how Edelstein ever got onto espn in the first place, and as a west coaster, I can't help but wonder if it was the 1 billionth example of east coast biases in all things sports. Thankfully he didn't last that long. It would be hilarious to see how the age of social media dealt with Edelstein's bull---- though, would be hilarious, otoh, his sell by date would probably be much shorter.

It should be, the whole point of this is landing a decade long solution to the question of whether you have a franchise QB or not.

as an 18 year old: Jayden is 55th in QBR, Lamar is 27th as a 19 year old, Lamar is 4th in QBR, Jayden's season is largely wiped out by covid (though he was top 10 in 4 games, the sample size renders it moot, if nice) As a 20 year old Lamar is 4th in QBR again, Jayden is 41st. As a 21 year old Lamar is drafted, goes 6-1 as a starter while struggling (31st in QBR), Daniels finally produces a season better than Lamar's freshman year at Louisville. As a 22 year old Lamar is #1 in QBR in the NFL and Jayden Daniels as a fifth year senior finally produces his first truly elite season in college and first and only season better than Lamar's age 19 and age 20 seasons at Louisville. That's what makes all of this stupid as hell. When Daniels finally played like an NFL QB prospect worthy of a first round draft selection, Lamar was already an NFL Veteran who had produced the #1 QBR ranking in the NFL itself, after finishing college with two top 5 QBR finishes. They weren't in the same universe as prospects period. The only reason Daniels is not going to be passed over like Lamar was is #1 the work Mahomes, Lamar, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray did in the NFL while he was strugglebussing life at ASU and LSU '19-'21, and #2 the NFL is filled with idiots who move as a herd, and rarely against the grain. they follow trends, like middle school girls, and that's the only reason people now value dual threat QB's.

Well the ADOT being 12 yards 1000% explains the accuracy numbers being in the high 50's. If you do my lazy look, its pretty weird how inaccurate he was at Indiana. Then again, it's Indiana, but still, his accuracy jumped as big as I've seen it from early days to Washington, and even then, still, lots of volatility. Could explain the crap Senior Bowl practices, more of his "off" days?

It would be interesting to see if others have similar volatility because your right, it looks like he was either 75% in a game or sub 60, it was very yo yo in his game log (in game I guess too?). Checking out Daniels, obviously his '23 is ridiculous, but his '22 is relatively consistent too. Maye seemed similarly volatile in '22, but less so in '23 except during his tail off late in the season. JJ seems volatile too. Didn't look at Caleb as he's going 1.01 so who cares (though again, Id consider trading up but not at their price).

The problem with that is that it just means he's healthy now. He could not stay on the field for years and years and years. What were his healthy seasons since 2018? 2022 and 2023? Nothing illustrates recency bias more brightly than that. And I really like Penix and view him as the value of the draft (especially if he goes in the mid to late 1st). The fact that he could go top 10-12 is kinda crazy to me considering his age and his issues with health 2018-2021 or thereabouts. It's ridiculous, and again, I like him, but you can't take an injury profile/age combo like that in the top half of round 1 w/o deserving to get fired. I expected him to go late first to day 2, top 10-12 is flat out crazy, and it has zilch to do w/his talent (which I believe in).

He was projected to go inside the top 5 before his final season. Lamar was 27th in QBR as an 18 year old. I don't think you want to be reminded what Daniels was. Lamar was 4th in QBR as a 19 year old. Lamar was 4th in QBR as a 20 year old. The reason for why he dropped eludes me. I had thought he'd fallen off his final year, but now looking at the #'s, he did not (though the traditional rating system shows him dropping from 148 to 146 from '16 to '17). Daniels simply wasn't in his universe as a prospect except in terms of accuracy which of course matters but even there, Daniels in complete college seasons in '19, and '21 and '22 was nowhere remotely close to Lamar. Lamar was uniformly far better with far less talent, at a far younger age: see Daniels QBR with better talent at age 18 was 55th compared to Lamar at 27th, Lamar at 19 and 20 finished 4th both seasons, compare that to Daniels at age 20 and 21 finishing 41st and 18th. I think the reasons Lamar didn't go high in '18 are probably connected to accuracy (#'s were low for a modern QB), connected to RGIII paranoia, and the reality that since RGIII, only Wilson had thrived as a dual threat QB, we only see the league fall in love with dual threat guys after Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar all do what they did in '18, and then are followed by Kyler succeeding as well in '19...you get Danny Nickels in the same class in '19, then more dual threat attraction in '21, and '23. The WR nonsense also makes me wonder about lingering racial stupidity as they did the same thing w/Terrell Pryor, and let Wilson fall behind guys like Brock Lobster, Foles, Weeden etc....I don't know if its race, or just the lack of hit rates with dual threat guys unless they were God Mode Vick etc. Not sure what it was, but the NFL clearly was clueless with him, and there was little justifiable reason other than the lack of successful comps at the time, and perhaps that his accuracy wasn't ideal (but again, Josh Allen's accuracy was far worse and in a much worse conference so that doesn't pass the smell test). Daniels profile as a prospect is worse, period, than Lamar's, I think the key component in why Daniels is going where he'll go is in the trailblazing that was done by Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, and Kyler a half decade ago, otherwise, Daniels is probably projected exactly where he was throughout '21-'23 (until say October of last fall), late day 2 to day 3.

Yep, if we do what I want and take Maye and Daniels goes there, I'll be working overtime reminding myself that if Daniels struggles there, well, anyone would. It's a terrible landing spot for any QB. Defensive Coach, no offensive speed other than Antonio Gibson, no talent at WR, run and fall down TE's, even the OL wasn't what it once was. Decades of bad drafting and no more Tom Brady took them to this terrible point. It will take multiple years to fix it, and unlike us, they don't have anything that can even give a false sense of competence. I mean, we still have McLaurin, Dotson was solid if disappointing, we have decent if unathletic RB room beyond the aging out Ekeler. They've got a similar guy to Robinson in their RB room and nothing else to speak of. It's just god awful.

I think Penix and Rattler have a real good chance (especially if the former stays health) at making 2-3 of these selections up top look incredibly stupid 2-3 years from now, hell maybe even next year. Otoh, I don't think Rattler has a chance to win a job in '24 unless the starter in front of him gets a season ending injury and maybe not even then. Just to cover all my bases with malleableness, if Nix drops as far as it sounds, that could be stupid as well. All of this for me, is about the risk I see with Daniels and JJ, I don't see a lot of long term risk with Maye or Caleb, but with JJ and Daniels practically anything could happen. Penix seems just solid as they come, Nix and Rattler both seem like values considering how far Nix fell, and where Rattler was 3 or 4 years ago (granted he's climbed up multiple rounds the last 6 months).

The league didn't view Lamar as a thrower in the same vein it views Daniels as a thrower. Maybe that's age, maybe that's prejudice against dual threat QB's, or even race, I don't know, I agree w/you though, Lamar was in contention to go 1.01 during the '16 season and summer of '17, and a slightly lesser 17 is what dropped him in mocks along with the generalized, NFL GM's systemic stupidity and RGIII redux paranoia.

Not sure. The sense I get is that he probably wouldn't have interviewed well even if he had interviewed in retrospect. If he gets a HC job, it's gonna be because the cv relating to Detroit's offense is so absurd, teams will ignore that he behaves like he has a personality disorder. Right now, the esteem isn't that high to ignore something that critical to coaching (man management, mental make up, ability to motivate and relate and communicate effectively with people etc).

On the one hand, I can concede that there is just proprietary data we lack access to as well as mental make up details we're missing from due diligence checks on players personalities, criminal history what have you, but it's also not difficult to say.... 2011: Locker, Ponder, Gabbert 2012: Weeden a 1st, Wilson a 3rd rounder 2013 or 14: Bortles 2016: Goff and Wentz worthy of top 2 picks 2017: Trubisky ahead of utterly proven Watson, and otherworldly Mahomes 2018: Lamar behind Darnold, and Rosen 2019: Danny Nickels is a top 5 guy 2020: Herbert's mechanics sucks, not remotely in Burrow's universe, like Rodgers, and Mahomes, he needs a lot of work to even be worth a mid to late 1st. 2021: Zach Wilson is Mahomes, Trey Lance is Lamar, who wasn't anyone. The Niner's are definitely taking Mac Jones top 3 because it's all about FLOOR! 2022: Pickett: never mind the previous entire college career, look at those 4th year #'s! Howell's hopeless, he should go 120 picks after Pickett!!! 2023: Purdy's a god of the S2, Stroud's a moron, Young's the next Purdy! Why do we think we're missing something? I don't know if we're right about Maye, but I know we can make a lot of money knowing they'll be wrong on almost everything.

I think the key thing to him is that there just isn't the information necessary to justify a really high pick, in its own way, the bet on him is like the bet on Lance, the cv is not a top 5 cv, it is all 1000% projection, and then you look at the tape grinders/scouts and they all say, " why is this guy viewed as a top 5 guy, I wouldn't take him in the top 30," there's a billion takes like that. So when I look at it, I completely acknowledge, he has some really interesting data, there are some points that suggest," damn, he's really, really freaking good at this," but again, there just aren't enough freaking throws, period, there just aren't, and part of it is that Harbaugh's lying, he let Luck throw far more than JJ, so there's no question he likes him as much as he suggests, and yet on the other hand, Stanford was never dominating like Michigan was last year either, so quite a bit of it was simply, Michigan was up by 4 TD's after 20 minutes and didn't need throws..... So, with Daniels and Williams and Penix, and even Nix you have a gazillion throws, and with JJ you don't, so you have to decide whether you're willing to project on that lean a profile, and I just don't buy anyone's that stupid. It's one thing to role the dice in a bad QB draft on a speculative guy like Danny Nickels (though not top 5), it's another thing to roll the dice in a top flight QB draft on a guy with such a blank cv, so.....taking him this high just strikes me as completely insane. Insane. Part of me thinks it makes zero sense, but I get that he might have it, he might, but top 2, top 3, top 4 in a class this top heavy in superstar level QB, WR, OT prospects? It's just moronic. It just is, but it may happen anyway.

Yep, missed games based on the fact that he took brutal hits in season, but his play never tailed off to the end and he made it through 17 seasons as a full time starter, missing only one largely complete season due to injury. Cunningham was a starter for 7 of his 16 seasons, and then either shared the gig or was a backup for the other 9, after the '91 injury, his career was never the same, he was still producing a couple more good to decent seasons ('92, and '94 and the God Mode '98), but after missing '91, and he was whatevs in '93, '95-'97 and in the final 3 of his career ('99-'01). Ben Roth grinded from his "yuck" rookie year being carried in '04 all the way through into the early 2020's only tailing off completely post injury in '20 (and still superficially decent stats even that season and '21). but it also doesn't matter. Daniels isn't Cunningham, period, and Maye isn't Ben Roth either, beyond size. I do wonder if the Daniels crew has some evidence to backup the theory that Daniels could improve his sturdiness, as they weren't that different coming in, same height, similar weight, but man, on the field Cunningham reminded me more of Richardson, or at least a bigger Lamar, but Richardson outweighed Cunningham by a good 30 lbs, so maybe my memory is deceiving me. I just didn't worry about Cunningham dying if he was hit, whereas I would if RGIII or Daniels was, hard enough. But again, I think we need to see Daniels do some things before he's Cunningham or anyone else, and lets be straight, I dont think we've seen anything remotely like a Cunningham since Cunningham. Even Lamar. Cunningham did what he did, in the NFC East, the toughest division in football, in the eighties and early nineties. Think about that, during the days of the second half of the redskins dynasty, and giants dynasty, and the rise from the ashes of a 2nd Cowboys Dynasty w/Aikman and friends. During that era he lead epic comebacks to beat the Redskins in the famous '87 and '89 games, beat us in the notorious body bag game in '90, and split the '92 series before dominating us after we collapsed post Gibbs. Against the Giants after losing both games in '87 by a field goal, he'd sweep the series in '88, '89, split it in the giants Superbowl season in '90, sweep again in '92, before losing his final start against them in '94. Against the Cowboys, he won 8 in a row against the late White teams, and then the crappers, and even Aikman, before wrapping with a 2-2 record against them spread over the '92 through '98 cowboys teams. Think about that. Quite simply, in an NFL 10x as violent as the era of Ben Roth, RGIII and especially Lamar, Cunningham dueled the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins powerhouse teams of the eighties and nineties and played them heads up, quite freaking well. For Jayden to do that? Well, the old carrying of a jock argument is hard to imagine. I just can't see it, and in fairness, Jayden won't have to, the world is much, much safer for QB's than it was for QB's back then, but not if they think they are running backs, and have all the safety instincts of Wile E Coyote.