The Consigliere

Yep, and I've seen other examples of it since, so as sip likes to mention, figuring out the context when something doesn't make sense, can help you find the sense in it, and sometimes, like I say, you just pick the outlier and you're wrong because most of the time you will be. Thankfully with McLaurin (and even Robinson last year), it didn't matter.

It's one of the many reasons McLaurin scared me. Extremely overage, no college production. It was 100% a bet on traits and character. Dude turned 24 the month he took his first snap. The hit rate on prospects that age is so freaking low, and the percentage of elite WR's in the league with his profile is absolutely miniscule. You were betting on the ultimate of outliers, but he had things in profile that made it worthwhile in round 3 (athleticism, mental make up, reports I'm sure they had at Ohio State as to why he didn't play more, part of the reason being they had two mega producer WR's already). Sometimes these outliers hit, but outliers are outliers for a reason, and you forget how negative it is to be an outlier because you don't remember the busts, except when they are drafted at the very very top of drafts, you don't remember the absolute litany of WR's with those traits taken over the years who became nothing, you remember the random names that did hit, which causes its own weird bias which makes you want to ignore the reality that profile's exist for a reason, and if one cohort is responsbile for 85-90% of the hits in the league, and another is responsible for 10-15%, well the obvious choice should always be the former. People should read up on how Jamar Chase sucked rumors from August of '20 because of dropsy. Mathematically it's just not a sticky stat over large sample sizes. Doesn't change the fact that we do know some individuals that clearly never shedded the problem (Will Fuller being a notorious example) but it's not something that should be worried about.

If you switch out Daniels for Richardson, I'd be more excited about the backup option this year. Yes, I'd definitely be more worried about Richardson as a thrower, but I'd also be more excited due to Richardson's age (20 when he was drafted), and size profile. I can like Lamar/Richardson prospects, but they need to do the job when they're young, and have the size too. I loved Vick, and liked Richardson a lot for those reasons (admittedly Vick wasn't Richardson size wise), and was interested in Lamar. Daniels age and years in college till breakout and size are just several very simple issues (and then there are a ton more when you dig under the hood). It's possible to like a Maye and a dual threat QB, but Daniels isn't the kind of dual threat guy I like.

I think its more nuanced than that. The sense I get was he was a 4th round to 5th round graded guy based off his '19-'21, and a 50th-85th guy based on his '22. That's part of what bothers me too though: all those years are real and relevant. If you have a huge year, you don't suddenly get to pretend that the player is now whomever they were in '23. No, in '23 they were who they were in '23, who they are, is '19-'23, and if we're lucky, '23 is reflective of where they're headed more than '19 or '21 or '22, but a players career in college is their career. If players were simply their best years, they wouldn't bust. Thats part of what annoys me: Look at all Maye's starts you can look at it in '22 and '23 because that's who he is as of now, not '23 alone, not '22, and same for Daniels. Player production, growth, and performance fluctuate over time at the NFL and college level. It is exceptionally rare to see an arrow just point upward, period, like some dream production possibilities curve that keeps carving its way higher into the frontier.

Just to go back over the years more recently: '15 and '16: I loved Winston, had no opinion on Mariota, thought Goff should be a 2nd or 3rd rounder and had no idea why Wentz was getting so much love. '17: 1. Mahomes 2. Watson I had Trubisky as Do Not Draft, and I was scared as hell about Watson's velocity #'s. '18: 1. Baker 2. Tie between Darnold and Rosen 4. Lamar I wouldn't touch Josh Allen due to the accuracy issues '19: 1. Kyler I rejected Danny Nickels entirely and thought Haskins was more of a 20th-45th guy. '20: 1A: Burrow 1B: Tua 3. Herbert '21: 1A. Lawrence 1B: Fields 3. Lance 4. Mac Jones Zach Wilson was off my board '22: 1.Malik Willis 2. Sam Howell 3. Corrall Pickett and Ridder were off my board. To be fair, the Willis love was mostly about dual threat dynasty fantasy value, and I wouldn't have taken any QB in round 1. '23: 1.Richardson 2A Young 2B Stroud (I bought the S2 crap) Going back earlier: I had no draftable first round guys for '13 or '14 I ranked the famed '12 class: 1. Luck 2.RGIII 3. Foles 4. Tannehill 5. Brock Lobster 6. R. Wilson Weeden was a Do Not Draft due to age and general bunkness 2011: 1.Newton 2.Locker 3. Dalton 4. Mallett 5. Kap Do not draft for Ponder and Gabbert I thought Clausen was a value in '10. Very spotty needless to say. Pretty good at sniffing out do not drafts, but hit rate was a mess at best.

and thicker/built. Daniels definitely has that RGIII frame, but even worse, to me, Jackson is more sturdy, feels like a Cunningham kind of frame in a way. And yeah, Jackson was ridiculous in year 2, and very good in year 3 of college. The earlier you breakout as a big time producer the higher the hit rate, the earlier you declare, the higher the hit rate. It aint great that Penix and Daniels played a gazillion years in college, period. When you filter traits for success rate, one of the biggest predictors of future success is having the big season very young and declaring young. Daniels did neither. He does have the caveat of covid though, which explains a bit of it.

It's worth knowing, too, or acknowledging that Lamar was actually considered a top 10 to top 5 pick at times in 2016-2017. People were worried he slipped a bit in '17 from what he did in '16 which caused him to drop. I also wonder if he'd gone higher if RGIII had never happened and Mahomes had won the starting job in '17 instead of '18. The view of running QB's is just much warmer today than it was six years ago.

Listening to guys I respect in the dynasty analytics and tape grinding communities the consensus seems to be that the only WR prospects coming out of college the past decade that compare to MHJR and Nabers are Jamar Chase and Amari Cooper, and that's it. Not Lamb, Not AJ Brown or DK (who was injured his whole college career, kind of a reverse JK Dobbins), Not Garrett Wilson, not Drake London or Corey Davis or Calvin Ridley or DJ Moore. Basically MHJR and Nabers would probably rank 2 and 3 or 1 and 3 the past decade. Odunze is more complicated, there are some who view him in the same tier, but most separate him out into his own tier as tier 2 for the class, and I think Odunze is more in that Ridley/DJ Moore/Lamb/Jeudy/G. Wilson/Olave zone of guys historically though I'd rate him below Lamb, Moore, and Wilson, and higher than I had Ridley, Jeudy and Olave at the time.. As another analogy, MHJR, and Nabers look a lot like the AJ Green/Julio Jones debate from 15 years ago (or slightly less).

This is a classic case of either there's some hidden traits and nuances we aren't valuing that he has and that are critical, or he is what he looks like, and why so many fans are fearing such a selections the same way they wtf'd Trubisky's Blake and Blaines, Danny Nickels, Kenny Pickett etc. What bothers me, as I've said far too many times is that most of the times, when the fans are "huh", about these guys, they tend to be right: Locker, Ponder, Gabbert in '11 Weeden and Tannehill in '12 EJ Manuel in '13 Bortles in '14 Wentz and Goff in 16 Trubisky in '17 Nickels and Haskins in '19 Wilson, Lance and Mac in '21 Pickett in '22 These kinds of what the hell guys have a similar stink on them, some of it is in the metrics they tend to share with other busted comps and some of it is that famous scotus saying about porn and art. There's just something about Bust QB's that gives off a stench. In fairness, its a heavier stench in the middle and late bits of round 1, the Druckenmiller Zone as I like to think of it, but there's also a notorious quality to guys in the top 10. Was some guy ever named Dilfer gonna make the HOF? Trubisky? Seriously....Blake and freaking Blaine, I can't get off of that and it isn't fair, but if your name is Blaine, I just do not see a HOF jacket in your future, and not you either Blake. Danny Nickels was literally patently obvious to such a degree I didn't even mind taking Haskins because thank God we didnt trade a future first for Nickels which was the likely other choice we might make, and there's a reason the only thing people thought of when they thought of Zach Wilson was "Milf Hunter" not his actual career prospects. Pickett? Good God, so so so so obvious. If you're good, you probably shouldn't be total --- your first several years in college.

Coldest line ever? Or close.

Good point with him. I remember 15 years ago trying to figure out who was the bigger ---- between him and Rivers when they had their shouting matches, and I guessed the wrong one. I do think Cutler was fundamentally just lacking in the mental make up to be a QB as a leader. It's pretty telling when you are so out on that edge, that you're an active negative, it definitely seems like him, George and Leaf had that problem. We learned later that Leaf had a personality disorder if I remember right AND was addicted to pain killers on top of it. Or at least developed that issue. Another example would be Norv Turner. After his tour with the Redskins it was patently obvious he was a coordinator, but lacked the mentality to be a HC, and yet teams still tried to make it happen for multiple organizations. It may be that that Detroit OC is more of the same. We certainly know that McDaniels, that Patriot dude is the cancer version of that kind of coach, but there are also beta personalities for lack of a better word, like Norv Turner who also can't do it. It's a nebulous think, leading: too beta, and you can't lead, too douchey, like McDaniels, and you can't either (or Cutler or George), it's a sweet spot, for QB's and for coaches.

I think in the end, if you're damn good, and not a cancer a la Jeff George, you can be any style, but it starts to be a problem if you're not damn good, or you are a cancer. Overly simplistic I know, but I think every personality model can work for the most part, given the right talent level.

Yep. One argument I've made, and always make is I'm fine with trading the house to move up and get your guy because its a QB's league. There is no too high of a price, if you believe you're looking at the next Luck, Mahomes, Burrow level talent. I mean in '20, people said Cincy isn't trading the pick, but honestly, trading up to take Burrow or Herbert #1. There wasn't really too high of a price to pay. Which is why as a GM, if I had a hopeless QB room like we do now, I would have offered 3 firsts, 3 seconds, Jonathan Allen, Terry McLaurin, whatever. If I believed iN Burrow or Herbert the way I did in Luck? There is no too high of a price standard in QB trades historically because lets be straight, since that draft, 2020, there has been one certifiable QB hit in 3 freaking drafts: CJ Stroud, and one very late dart throw hit that nobody on earth could predict (Purdy), and that's an unusual stretch of talent rich veins of QB's: Kyler in '19, Burrow and Herbert in '20, Lawrence mehing it in '21, CJ in '23, the dart throw in '22. More often QB classes are like '13-'19, where you just have nothing bust misses for the bulk of a decade, with handfuls of hits (Mahomes and Watson in '17, Allen and Lamar in '18, Kyler in '19, but nothing worth a damn in '13, '14, '15 or '16 at the top of boards. So how much is too much? Especially when you already know the '25 class is kind of blah's, and if your Minnesota, you simply have a talent rich collection of pass catchers now and lack a QB? What would you care if you move your '24, '25, '26 and '27 firsts to move up to slot 2 or 3? Who cares. With the talent minnesota has, they aren't going to be picking 1-2-3, they will simply get too many wins with that offense in place regardless as to whose under center. So instead of offering trades to move up and calling, why not give them the Godfather offer. Plop down a '24, '25, '26 and '29 first, and 2nds in '25, '26 and '29, and 3rds in '24, '25, and 27. Go with the godfather offer. Why not. If you miss, sign a placeholder like the bucs signed Baker, and move on with him, but if you hit, you wont miss most of that draft capital, because honestly, if you hit at one of these QB's, a Herbert, a Burrow, a Mahomes etc, it is worth 5x to 10x what literally anything else is in this league period. CJ Stroud just proved it last year, if anyone was wondering. People undersell how worth it is to godfather offer. It is worth it, RGIII was worth the trade up, if he'd hit. He was. And hell, if we hadn't hit with Cousins 3 rounds afterwards, we would have been picking high as hell soon enough and could've tried again. That's whats in play here as well, which is probably the only selling point I like with Daniels. If we miss with Daniels, we will miss BIG, and will be able to belly up to the draft bar very, very high in '25 and '26 and maybe '27 as we go QB hunting again like the Bears, Cardinals, Jets and Browns have over the past decade. You miss badly enough, you'll get another chance. With Maye, I don't think the floors low enough, a miss with him feels more like the Raiders with Carr, or Bucs with Winston than it does the Jets with Zach Wilson.

Sounds like JJ is the most extroverted, social, and comfortable under media lights, Maye is close, and the sense I get is Jayden is not, at all. In fairness to Jayden, if he's really ----ing good at the next level, nobody's gonna care much that he's shy and soft spoken, they'll listen a la Art Monk, and follow.

And lets be fair to Lance. Lance isn't Zach Wilson: Obvious talentless idiot, and even cancer. Trey Lance injured his hand in '21 which screwed up his throwing motion and caused him to largely miss the season, and then he fractured his ankle in the second start of his career in early '22, and then Purdy took the job from him while he was rehabbing. We don't know what Lance could be because he never had a chance. He lost '21 to injury and lost the starting gig to a guy who guided the team to a conference title game in '22. When people talk about Trey Lance as a bust, they're speaking factually in terms of what he's turned his status as a top 3 draft pick into a backup role so far in his career, he is a bust in terms of value return, otoh, he's not a bust in the same way Trubisky, Rosen, and Zach Wilson were. We simply don't know what the hell Lance could be because he got hurt, repeatedly and the injuries wiped out his opportunities until he fell behind two QB's who ranked habitually inside the top 10 in the league, no chance he's taking their jobs, so he's a bust, despite never really thrown a ball for even a month as a starter. The only caveat I'd add is that Lance, when he was healthy, before injury, looked pretty erratic, period, in terms of accuracy. Strong armed, yes, athletic yes, ideal frame yes, but not accurate. He was unusually inaccurate for the 2020's. So maybe he was gonna bust anyway, but we'll never know for sure, unless he gets a gig as a starter and fails in the way Zach Wilson did.

Be interesting if its to test JJ, if he's really the pick. I think there seems to be some consensus that Maye and JJ have classic extroverted, social QB personalities, and JJ is the one that's more shy (and possibly introverted, although its important to note they are not the same traits). It would be fascinating if it's a kind of mental make up social test.... I have no idea. But its interesting to speculate about. I'm quite curious if it will go down as a total ---- show, or actually an innovative, genius idea. I think the former, but the greatest ideas are usually classified as the former before we realize they were really the latter.

I'd feel a lot better if it was that simple. I just disagree w/you, at least w/regards to some of them. They aren't just simply hating on a prospect, and cheering on their guy. I don't think people look at drafts and prospects the same way they did 15, 25 years ago, we're more familiar these days with hit rate, busts, and analytics in a way nobody was, when they were just buying draft guides decades ago.

Ding ding ding. The one thing those quotes consistently accomplish, is alarming fans paying attention to the fact that either: #1 they aren't honest with journalists (for instance, years later, Michael Stipe was asked why he talked about UFO's so much in a couple of interviews, but not in others around the New Adventure's in Hi-Fi album, and how many speculated about how the record had connections to X-Filiesish conspiracy/paranoia and ufo theory, and Stipe answered that: "If you see us discussing UFO's in that kind of stuff in response to a journalists question, it means we hated something about the interviewer/interview, and decided to have a laugh with answers, rather than answer questions thoughtfully) #2 they're idiots. I don't think there's another answer. When i read these GM's/Ex-Front office execs/ex-scouts: take articles at SI.com, espn, theathletic and other sources over the years, all its done is deeply alarm me at the chuckleheads that have had careers in the NFL, it's very clear with some of the takes, they're either stupid, or lying, or just deeply ignorant, and not in a position to answer a question, but deciding to answer it anyway and hoping their air of authority will get them across the finish line.

Sometimes you should be. There are times when teams are making obvious, stupid outlier decisions. Last year Forbes was the pick and the vast majority of the board we're right in questioning it, in '21 Jamin was the pick and the same was true. There are plenty of times when people will use the appeal to authority argument to provide cover for incompetent nepobaby GM's, just look at the Wizards/Boulez. It's not hard to understand why the suck has stank up the halls of Wizardom for nearly 45 years, just look at the GM's. We don't have as much information as they have but often you can see exactly how and why they're process is leading them into a terrible, or highly risky decision. I'm not going to give auto-cover to guys simply because they have jobs in the league. The NFL has been littered with nepo babies, and connected morons since its inception. Today is no exception to that, although I think its reasonable to argue it's a bit rarer these days than in the past.

With regards to #1, its more respect than trust. I don't trust any F.O.'s, but respect? Peters has the cv to justify plenty of respect, but yeah, I don't give full trust to practically anything. That's a higher level of respect that has to be earned over a long bit of time.

Somebody is going to hit big between Maye, JJ, Daniels and Penix in particular (and I even wonder if we end up wondering why people forgot about Nix, or let Rattler fall so low), maybe 2, but all 4 definitely aren't hitting. This isn't an '04 or '83 class, to me anyway, there's no Todd Blackledge, or a floor of Eli. Some of these guys are busting, and I would not be shocked at all if Penix stays healthy and is the 2nd best, if JJ has magic fairy dust up his backside, if Maye just becomes the Maye we all think, or if Daniels becomes what he mostly was in college which was good, but I'd be lying if I said I was sure about anything other than relative bust risk. I've got no idea who is going to hit, though I think this feels like a '18+ rather than like '20 or '04, I think of the core group of 6, 2-3 are hitting, and probably 3-4 total from the entire class.

There's at least like a 35-45% chance of that happening regardless of whom we take. Its just the reality of QB drafting. Just thank the heavens for whatever reason, QB's have been hitting more the past eight years compared to the previous 40. I wont be as angry if Maye fails simply because I think its the right decision, while recognizing the risk, even if its the right decision, he's joe average or a mega bust 4 to 4.5 or 5 times out of 10. That's reality. I just think Daniels is Joe average or Mega Bust about 5-6.5 times out of 10, which is why I can't understand this. It's not some situation where I'm 1000% sure like Luck or to a lesser degree Lawrence, these guys are a tier above the guys you saw with dice roles in '15, '16, '18, '21, '23, but they are still, 35-60% chance of bust options depending upon your eval of where they fit historically (and if you remove your own or my own biases, it may be more 40-55% than 35-60%).

I never participated in that thread, but I'd definitely quibble. The roots of the downfall were the terrible drafts the team had from 1984-1992 and the Gibbs era ended just as free agency began and we had nothing, absolute nothing from a decade of crap draft classes to build around, the vets that lead us to being a top 4-6 team in the league from 1990-1992 retired or left via Free Agency and Plan B, and we not only failed to replace them with the '84, '85, '86, '87, '88, and '89 classes, but we whiffed on a HUGE and disproportionate # of our picks from 1990-1998. That was was why the team was straight --- for literally half a decade before Snyder even sniffed around the carcass. Snyder compounded things times 1000, but it was like smashing a zombie in Dawn of the Dead, we were already expired six years earlier, and rotting, Snyder just dug a deeper hole, and made it impossible to climb out over the next two decades. He's the satan of owners basically although that is giving him too much credit, probably more accurate to say he was like Jack Warner-an entitled, nouveau riche idiot, who'd randomly stumbled into success, and thought it was his own genius when it was the opposite (his own behavior constantly putting at risk the golden goose that was Warner Brothers/the redskins). I agree w/your point to commando, it's more accurate to judge organizations typically on the mix of owner and GM/Coach and how well and effectively they work together. With the Redskins, one of the weirdest things about the past 39 years is that the origins of the disaster started during the success of the eighties (the USFL dispersal drafts and some great trades blunted the impact of a decade of consecutive crap drafts from Beathard and Casserly), and that while Snyder sucked, the hole he had to climb out of was already mighty deep in 1999. In a truly odd twist of fate, Cerrato, a true idiot of idiots when it comes to GM's, was still better on draft day than Casserly ever was, even Bruce Allen was better than Casserly.... But man....I'm digressing, I just like to make sure people remember, as much as we loathe Snyder, the Cooke-Casserly-Turner/Petitbone years were equally horrible in terms of on field performance, and the roots of the misery stretch all the way back to 1984.

I do think some people are just fundamentally different when it comes to interpreting how and why something sucks. I don't mind a team missing if they used good process and best practices, and the random realities of a game where prospects inevitably fail, came home to roost. I do mind, when you have bad process, ignore warning signs that should be obvious, and draft a bust. I used the Mayock Raiders as an example, the Wizards under Shepard with Johnny Davis are another example etc. I'm gonna be bummed and angry at a miss when its stupid, like say, Forbes over Gonzalez looks right now, but I'm not gonna be mad if my team say, takes a Miles Sanders in round 2 over say, a guy like Brian Robinson, a few years later, and misses. I'll be sad rather than angry. Some people just get pissed at misses, over the years I've just become more concerned with GM's/Scouts/FO's etc that are just using poor methodology and process and sometimes hitting due to randomness, and sometimes (more) missing due to process as much as anything. I'll take the misses as long you're misses are the inevitable outcomes from a difficult business that can't be perfected, over misses that are a product of delusional stupidity like say, Gettleman, or John Dorsey types, or our own Bruce Allen and Cerrato and Casserly types.

I shouldn't be speaking for him, but honestly when it comes to looking at those guys, I think what Commando and I both have is our Zach Wilson/Trey Lance/Danny Dimes going off like a fire alarm. At least for me, it isn't that I'm sure I'm right on who will hit, or who will bust, I'm just sure I'm right, on who has the most deeply concerning traits/metrics on his career length cv. It should be pretty obvious here the pitfalls with a Daniels. There are plenty with Maye as well, and at the end of the day, historically speaking, the hit chance as a stud or a bust with either of them is probably floating between a near coin flip and maybe 10-15% better chance of a coin flip, so its not so much certainity of what will happen as to certainty on which path is more strewn with dangers, lots and lots of dangers, and far more predictably negative ones, than the other. Every lesson I've learned with QB drafting the past 35 years connects to raging alarms over Daniels profile. That's why I'm scared ----less at the thought of drafting. It's not that I'm sure he's gonna hit or bust, it's that I'm sure there's far more rational reasons to get why he'll bust, or could bust, compared to Maye. There are lessons with guys like Wilson, and Pickett and Danny Nickels over the years, and they are not being heeded remotely if the rumored Daniels selection is true. That is alarming as hell. Doesn't mean I'm certain of anything, other than that past history suggests Daniels is a lot more risky than the NFL appears to think. However, having been wrong a gazillion times on who will hit, I could be wrong about Daniels future, I just don't think I'm wrong about the risk, hit or not. As an example, Henry Ruggs might have hit for the Raiders, minus the accident, he was on his way to an improved 2nd year at the time after all, but that wouldn't have changed the foolishness of their process that lead to selecting him over Lamb. It was just bad process period. That's how I feel about Daniels. It should be obvious why this is a mistake. He could hit anyway, Maye could hit anyway. If Danny Nickels hit for the giants, he didn't, but if he had, it was still bad process, same with Haskins for us that year. Good process doesn't get you a 100% hit rate, it just ramps up your chances, and reduces your risk, that's what I want, and why I feel we're going astray. But, like I mentioned yesterday, there may be proprietary data, hidden details, background checks, data we don't have, that is also instructive in why they'd go that way, its just based on what I've seen, and have access too, Daniels is just riskier, period. I hope to God I'm wrong if he's the pick, and no, I won't be annoyed in the least at being wrong if he hits, other than possibly being short shares of him in dynasty. I'll also be curious what details unfold in stories over time as to why I was wrong in the eval, sometimes it's obvious something was missed, sometimes it's just randomness and outlierdom. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. The class reminds me a lot of '99 and '18, I just hope the hit rate is more '04/'20.