Bush gains in New York (still in Kerry's control though)

[Zen-like Todd]

I can't see NY swinging Republican, I think this post convention state is probably be Bush's high water mark in terms of NY polling, but all the same, its not a great sign for the Kerry camp.

A side comment. Both of these polls are surveys of registered voters, not likely voters.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-ny--bush-newyork0915sep15,0,6636602.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire

Polls: Bush gets convention bounce in heavily Democratic New York

By MARC HUMBERT

AP Political Writer

September 15, 2004, 9:46 AM EDT

NEW YORK -- President Bush got a convention bounce even in heavily Democratic New York, two statewide polls reported Wednesday.

One poll, from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, showed Democrat John Kerry leading Bush in the state, 47 percent to 41 percent, with independent Ralph Nader at 4 percent. But that was narrowed from a pre-Republican National Convention poll from Quinnipiac released Aug. 13 that had Kerry leading Bush, 53 percent to 35 percent, with Nader also at 4 percent.

With Nader out of the race, Kerry leads Bush in the latest poll, 49 percent to 42 percent.

The new poll also found Bush's approval rating rising to 43 percent, up from 37 percent in the August poll.

"New York state is still colored a solid Democratic blue by politicians on both sides, but the color faded in the last month as President Bush came bouncing out of a very successful convention in New York City," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Hamden, Conn.-based polling institute.

"The president's approval rating has gone from terrible to just bad," Carroll added.

A second statewide poll, from Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, had Kerry leading Bush, 48 percent to 40 percent, with Nader at 4 percent. An April poll from Marist had Kerry leading Bush, 54 percent to 37 percent.

The Marist poll had Bush's approval rating at 40 percent in New York. It was 38 percent in Marist's April poll.

The GOP convention was held two weeks ago in the Big Apple, the first time Republicans held their event in New York City, where there are five Democrats for every Republican. Statewide, there are five Democrats for every three Republicans. No Republican presidential candidate has carried New York state since Ronald Reagan did in 1980 and 1984.

While 52 percent of New York voters told the Quinnipiac pollsters that going to war in Iraq was a mistake, that was down from 57 percent in the August poll. In the new poll, 47 percent said Kerry would do a better job handling the war while 46 percent said the president would be best at handling Iraq.

Of those polled, 24 percent said they were very worried about a terrorist attack in the United States in the next few months while 42 percent said they were somewhat worried about that.

Fifty-two percent of New York voters said they felt Bush would do a better job dealing with terrorism while 40 percent said Kerry would do a better job handling that.

Quinnipiac's telephone poll of 1,438 registered voters was conducted Sept. 7-12 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Marist's telephone poll of 786 registered voters was conducted Sept. 13-14 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus of 3.5 percentage points.

[codeorama]

I don't see any possible way for Kerry to win.

He is a terrible candidate. All the dems had to do was put up someone that was consistant and competant and they would have easily defeated Bush, but Kerry is a joke. To lose to Bush should be a total embarrassment for him.

[Kilmer17]

NY isnt in play.

Neither is VA despite what the Dems will tell you.

[Cskin]

Yes... as soon as the Repubs. in Va. get the word that the state MIGHT be in play... they'd come out in droves to punch Kerry in the mouth at the ballot box. Va. is safely red... thank goodness.

I agree with those who say Kerry is a horrible candidate. He just doesn't connect with the voters. He's not trustworthy.... and his incessant drone on the soap box is enough to make any one physically sick.

Anyone else could have challenged Bush... Dean, Edwards, or Gephardt.... but Kerry suprised them all and is by far the worst choice the Dems could have made.

[NavyDave]

We arent going to grab NY from Kerry but what I'd love to see is NJ Governorship go GOP with a special election

Va is going GOP definately Bush just needs to Rally the troops in Michigan, Ohio and Florida

[Kilmer17]

Michigan isnt in play any longer.

The huge Muslim population is antiBush.

[Ancalagon the Black]

Is the uptick for Bush in NY the result of Giuliani's speech and support?

[Guest SkinsHokie Fan]

Ironic because the huge Muslim population in Michigan voted for Bush in 2000 and he didn't carry it (I think it went to Gore)

The Muslim vote unfourtantley will flip flop this year (90 percent going to Kerry as opposed to 90 percent Bush in 2000, including 54,000 out of 60,000 in FL going to Bush) despite how much he has actually done for us

[Mister Happy]

It's because of all the protesters that went to jail. Nobody left to vote for Kerry.