Duncan Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/8984721.htm?1c This is a really interesting article about the politics of the economy and I believe it fairly presents both sides. I’m sure it will spark a lively debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbear Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 have to have an account. Can you post the article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wicked Wop Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 Bush, Kerry Duel Over Economic Statistics MARTIN CRUTSINGER Associated Press WASHINGTON - Listening to President Bush and Sen. John Kerry talk about the economy, voters might almost think the two candidates were describing different countries. To Bush, the economy is "strong and getting stronger" while Kerry derides an administration that he says has the worst jobs record since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression. Both campaigns are selectively using data to support their arguments about the economy, which has been under special scrutiny as Kerry highlights ways he says he would deal with such anxieties as rising prices for gasoline, health care and tuition. The Kerry campaign wants voters to answer the question that Ronald Reagan first used with great effect against Jimmy Carter in 1980, "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" The Bush campaign, arguing that America has gone through a series of shocks from recession to terrorist attacks, wants voters to examine a different time fame - the past 12 months, when the economy has finally begun to show signs of a strong rebound. "The administration is focused on an improving economy while the Kerry folks are focused on the fact that the economy is improving after a very difficult period and there are still lots of households that are stuck in a very deep hole," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. To bolster their rebound argument, Bush and the Republicans note that the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, started revving up last summer and is forecast to grow this year by a sizzling 4.7 percent, which would be the fastest in 20 years. That fast growth has triggered stronger job creation, something that had been badly lagging. Nearly 1 million jobs have been created in the past three months and 1.4 million since August. "People are going back to work. The economy is getting better," Bush told a crowd in Ohio, where he traveled on Monday to tout new job figures showing that Ohio, one of the hardest hit manufacturing states, had seen its unemployment rate decline in May to 5.6 percent. Similar improvement is being seen in several battleground states. But as the Kerry campaign is quick to point out, the current job growth follows a dismal period at the beginning of the Bush presidency when the country was shedding jobs because of the recession and the lackluster recovery. At the bottom of the jobs slump last August, the country had lost 3.5 million positions since Bush was sworn in. Even with the rebound since then, Bush is still down by 1.2 million payroll jobs from when he took office in January 2001. If that deficit isn't made up by the end of his term next January, he would be the first president since Hoover with a net loss. Bush supporters note that the nation's unemployment rate - at 5.6 percent - matches the level of unemployment at the same point that Bill Clinton was running for re-election in 1996. The "Misery Index," the total of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, is now at 7.3, reflecting consumer prices outside of energy and food rising by 1.7 percent over the past 12 months and an unemployment rate that is down to 5.6 percent, after having peaked at 6.3 percent last year. That level is better than it has been in most of the years since World War II. However, Bush does not fare as well under a new version of the "Misery Index," created by Kerry strategists, that measures seven indicators they say are a better indication of middle class welfare - the prices of gasoline, health care and college tuition, the number of jobs, median family income, personal bankruptcies and homeownership. Under this measure, only homeownership, currently at a record level, has shown improvement during the Bush years. The Bush campaign says the measurements were selected by Kerry's people to make Bush look bad and that some, such as college and health care costs, have been going up for decades. "Whatever he can find to make people unhappy, he will find it," said publisher Steve Forbes, a Bush supporter. The Kerry campaign, however, sees its new index as a way to explain why many middle class families feel they are losing ground in a globalized economy that has seen U.S. workers face intense competition from low-wage countries. "We were trying to look at things people talk about over their kitchen table," said Gene Sperling, a Kerry adviser and former top economic adviser to Bill Clinton. While recent polls have shown lingering unease over Bush's economic positions, supporters contend that by Election Day, with more months of strong job growth, voters will feel more confident that the president's policies of tax cuts to spur economic growth are working. They may be right, economic forecasters say. "Most of our historical work suggests that voters have very short memories and it is really the last year that dominates their thinking with employment tending to be the best variable to predict the outcome," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 This is the key to the election the economy and not Iraq. If it continues at the strong pace it is now Bush will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chomerics Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 Who was it that said give me 2 Trillion dollars and I'll show you one hell of a party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 The sad thing is that the economy is going to be great over the next 3-4 years. It wont matter who's in the WH. But you can bet the idiots on the left will claim it's good because Kerry is there if he wins. The fact is our economy is going to be good for years because of the work of Bush and the current Congress. Just like it was bad for the 1st 2 years under Bush because of the end of Clintons term and the Congress then. Our economy does not turn on a dime. Legislation and initiatives take time to have noticeable affects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncan Posted June 25, 2004 Author Share Posted June 25, 2004 Originally posted by chomerics Who was it that said give me 2 Trillion dollars and I'll show you one hell of a party. Michael Moore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chomerics Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 Originally posted by Kilmer17 The sad thing is that the economy is going to be great over the next 3-4 years. It wont matter who's in the WH. But you can bet the idiots on the left will claim it's good because Kerry is there if he wins. The fact is our economy is going to be good for years because of the work of Bush and the current Congress. Just like it was bad for the 1st 2 years under Bush because of the end of Clintons term and the Congress then. Our economy does not turn on a dime. Legislation and initiatives take time to have noticeable affects. Absolute BS Kilmer, the economy is starting to go because of the 2 Trillion dollars we pumped into it, along with the fact that the federal rate was at a lifetime low. This kept the economy afloat long enough for the spending and tax breaks to take effect. The problem with it is the deficit. We've increased the deficit each year by over 200Billion a year and we are nearing a record $500Billion dollar deficit for 04. We can't keep this up and we will have to pay it off. As of right now, the interest on our debt is third on government spending, over $240Billion a year!!! That's just interest!!!! When you increase spending during a tax decrease it hurts the economy, not helps it. Hence, when Bush is voted out of office, we will have to really look hard at how to rectify the maddening spending spree Bush has been on. NEVER, I repeat NEVER give the kid the keys to the candy store, it can only lead to trouble in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 Defecits matter ONLY ONLY ONLY when using it as a percentage of GNP. And since our GNP is SIZZLING right now, the defecit is not that big of an issue. It certainly should be lower, but the only thing I hear from the Kerry campaign is that Bush hasnt spent enough on programs. So tell us what will Kerry be cutting? Or will he simply raise taxes again, thus forcing businesses to have less money, so they then lay people off. Simple economic study would teach you that our economy doesnt turn on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atloldskin Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 The article was fairly balanced. Conveniently, Kerry chooses the variables that will give him the best answer against Bush. Gas prices will decline in the future and government programs greatly assist with college education. Most health costs are bourne by employers' health plans and not "middle America". What affects middle America the most are jobs, interest rates, inflation and taxes. The low interest rates "saved" us from a harsher recession; it was not the Bush tax cuts (and I am Republican). The tax cuts helped as did the tremendous dollars the government "pushed" into the economy. Bush is trending well on these four critical areas. This is where the election will be won or lost, not with Iraq IMO. As Clinton said, "Its the economy stupid". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncan Posted June 25, 2004 Author Share Posted June 25, 2004 Originally posted by chomerics When you increase spending during a tax decrease it hurts the economy, not helps it. Hence, when Bush is voted out of office, we will have to really look hard at how to rectify the maddening spending spree Bush has been on. Let's see, the lowest "misery index" since WWII, best GDP growth in 20 years and full employment. Yep, your right Mike the economy is really hurting. :laugh: I agree that the deficits need to be addressed but you can't deny the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbear Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 GAs prices...won't go down to previous levels...nor should they (it's still very cheap in historically adjusted dollars). Seriously, the post had an article saying basically "the price per gallon should drop 10 cents." Wow, that means it will only be 30 percent higher than it was 2 years ago. I just question how much it impacts most voters. I know I think about it, but really how much are we talking per month? I drive a lot so it's $40 for me...but I'd bet I'm really high up on that scale. I'm just not sure it matters enough to most. Now energy costs...might not be the same story, but so far it's not a campaign issue. health plans costs not born by the average person? First, it shows up in how much salary you get. Don't kid yourself into thinking your the amount you are paid wouldn't be different if your company didn't have to provide benefits. Also, I think the ones hurting worst are our small businesses. They see the costs of insurance all the time. While I find the stats used by Kerry to be a bit self serving...I'm not sure I disagree with them. Looking at what we pay for things to get by (gas/insurance) and looking at things most equate with out ability to improve our lot in life (education) and using these factors to determine if we are better or wors off in any meaningful way seems like a reasonable question to ask. KNowing that the stock market is up...if I don't have money it...the other factors are going to mean more to me. Likewise, if I don't have a job as nice as the one I had 4 years ago, I won't care what stats say about the number of people with jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavyDave Posted June 25, 2004 Share Posted June 25, 2004 Yep gas prices arent going to be 99 cents again heck a generic gallon of water is 80 cents and thats with out the state,county and federal add on taxes. Still I do expect to see prices in the $1.30 to 1.50 range taking another issue off of the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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