Examining the season by quarters

[CapsSkins]

I like to look at an individual season by quarters. With Rivera on the hot seat, I think we can all agree a playoff berth is required at minimum in Year 4 for him to earn an extension. The Redskins/Football Team/Commies have made the playoffs six times in the past 30 years, and I decided to look at how those seasons progressed by quarter. Obviously, this was much cleaner to do back when there were only 16 games.

 

Here is the record by quarter in each of the past six playoff seasons:

 

 

2020 is an outlier considering we won the division at 7-9 and snuck in. But even that aside, we see an almost identical trend in every one of these seasons: start (relatively) strong in the first quarter, slow down or wheels come off in the 2nd quarter, a variety of outcomes in the 3rd quarter, and then near perfect records to end the season.

 

The RivEra has mostly been the opposite (I am including 5 games in the first quarter for 17-game seasons):

 

  

 

Bad/terrible starts, an inconsistent second quarter, great ball in the 3rd quarter, and then the wheels come off as we lose steam to finish off the season.

 

Given the strength of the NFC East and the NFC North this year (the Vikings are better than 0-2 would suggest), not to mention Ron's place on the hot seat, the minimum threshold should be 10 wins which should be good enough for a wild card berth and would be our highest win total since 2012. Incidentally, that was about the last time there was real excitement around the team.

 

How might that play out? Let's look at this season by quarter and try to find a path to 10-7:

 

 

Obviously we have the benefit of hindsight knowing we're starting off 2-0. Looking at the schedule, I think it's very doable provided a few things happen: we beat the teams we're supposed to, we find a way to at least split with our divisional opponents, and we punch above our weight at least once or twice.

 

This team has proven it can beat any given team in any given week. As I mentioned in another thread, we beat the undefeated Steelers in 2020 with One-Legged Alex Smith and the undefeated Eagles in 2022 with Noodle Arm Heinicke. We shouldn't put any team on a pedestal. But we can't choke away tight games like we've done repeatedly in the RivEra. Arizona and Denver are auspicious omens. We're trying to get the best record since 2012 and have the best start thru two games since 2011. The path to 10-7 doesn't look absurd or delusional - it's right there for the taking. Anything can happen, but I'll be tracking our progress thru each quarter and seeing if we can buck the usual Rivera Trend in our effort to take the next step.   

 

 

  

[CapsSkins]

We're now halfway / 2 quarters thru the season and are at 4-5.

 

I think 10-7 is probably out of reach but 9-8 could very plausibly be enough for a Wild Card spot (last year a 9-8 team got in and a 9-8 team was left out).

 

To get to 9-8, we'd have to go 5-3 the rest of the way. Is that plausible? Let's look at the schedule including opponents' current records:

 

Week 10: at Seahawks (5-3)

Week 11: Giants (2-6)

Week 12: at Cowboys (5-2)

Week 13: Dolphins (6-3)

Week 14: BYE

Week 15: at Rams (3-6)

Week 16: at Jets (4-3)

Week 17: 49ers (5-3)

Week 18: Cowboys (5-2)

 

I think the likeliest path to five wins is beating the Seahawks, Giants, Rams, Jets, and splitting with the Cowboys.

 

I'd put a 30-40% chance on that happening. Next week will be a big game - Seattle has a good win against Detroit but have otherwise won against lesser competition. We can be competitive against most anybody, especially with Larsen and Paul replacing Gates and Charles on the OL along with EB improving his playcalling and better discipline on the DL without Chase "Lavar" Young freelancing.

 

Beating the Seahawks will generate momentum and put 9-8 into play in a real way. I know many if not most people here would prefer tanking for a draft pick but I'd rather see Sam get a chance in a playoff game. We've played the Eagles very close this year and if we snuck into the playoffs, we'd have a real chance to beat them IMO.

 

Edited November 5, 2023 by CapsSkins

[Warhead36]

Losing to the Bears and Giants is just devastating. You cant lose to trash like that. And not being able to steal one of the Philly games really hurts too. 

[CapsSkins]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Losing to the Bears and Giants is just devastating. You cant lose to trash like that. And not being able to steal one of the Philly games really hurts too. 

 

Yes. Beat the trash and we could be sitting here 6-3. Steal at least one against Philly and we'd be at 7-2 contending for the division.

 

Nevertheless, another year of the Rivera Special. But a wildcard matchup against Detroit would be fun... give Ben Johnson an up-close look at Howell, potentially persuading him to take the HC job? If we won and went to Philly for Round 3... wouldn't shock me if we finally pulled it out. How insane would it be to go to our first NFC Championship game since 1991 the year after Snyder finally sells?

 

Probably won't happen. But hey, beat Seattle and there's a chance...  

[Conn]

15 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Losing to the Bears and Giants is just devastating. You cant lose to trash like that. And not being able to steal one of the Philly games really hurts too. 

Nah, I place more value on having dealt the DE’s for the future and those deals absolutely would not have happened if we were 5-3 or 6-2 going into this game. Things played out fine imo, this coaching staff got the results they deserved 

[Warhead36]

14 minutes ago, Conn said:

Nah, I place more value on having dealt the DE’s for the future and those deals absolutely would not have happened if we were 5-3 or 6-2 going into this game. Things played out fine imo, this coaching staff got the results they deserved 

Idk man I still wanna win and have meaningful games. The seasons too short to be thinking draft prospects in November.

[Conn]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Idk man I still wanna win and have meaningful games. The seasons too short to be thinking draft prospects in November.

Not for me, but I get it. This season was a wash before it ever started for me, Rivera’s squad was clearly on a train to nowhere. But I get not everyone has that mindset. I would much rather have gotten value for the DE’s due to some losses in a lost year than won those games and kept this roster intact. I’m living in February already, that’s where the excitement and hope lies for me, with a new GM and coaching staff. I’ll be right there with you week 1 of next season though, wanting to win every snap. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Idk man I still wanna win and have meaningful games. The seasons too short to be thinking draft prospects in November.

That just adds up every year to "I'm going to root against a better draft position, until it's really too late. Then I'll start rooting for it."