Peter King:Monday Morning QB

[TK]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/writers/peter_king/11/10/mmqb/

Monday Morning QB

Peter King

Wild-card draw

Teams that don't win the division will be out of luck come January

Posted: Monday November 10, 2003 10:13AM; Updated: Monday November 10, 2003 10:19AM

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Here's why yesterday's battle at Ericsson Stadium between Tampa Bay and Carolina for NFC South supremacy was so important, and why tonight's Philadelphia-Green Bay matchup is equally crucial: Surrendering a division crown for a playoff wild card is like signing your own death certificate come January.

In the 13 seasons since the NFL expanded to six playoff teams per conference, none of the 52 teams seeded fifth or sixth has ever advanced to the Super Bowl. With four division winners now, there are only two wild cards per conference. This is what a wild card team must do to make the Super Bowl:

1. Win three playoff games, all likely against higher-seeded teams.

2. Win those three games during a 16-day span, all on the road.

3. Be incredibly lucky.

Last week, on HBO's "Inside the NFL" show, Cris Collinsworth said he likes Tennessee as his Super Bowl winner. The Titans had better beat out Indianapolis for the AFC South title to have much of a chance. Imagine this possible playoff scenario if the Titans don't win the division and end up as the AFC's fifth seed: playing at Baltimore, at New England and at Kansas City in successive weeks. I'm not sure any of the last 10 Super Bowl winners would have endured that path, then had anything left for a Super Bowl game.

All of this makes Bill Belichick's decision last Monday to go for the safety the Call of the Season's First Half. To recap: It's Denver 24, New England 23, with 2:51 left in the game. New England has the ball, and it's fourth-and-10.

"The ball's on our one, and we gotta find some way to get it out and get some field position," Belichick told me. "When it was third and 10, I talked to [coaching aide] Ernie [Adams] and [special-teams coach] Brad [seely] about taking a safety if we couldn't move it out of there a little bit on that play. On fourth-and-one or fourth-and-two, I'd probably have gone for it. But anything less, and we'd have to punt. But here, backed up in our end zone, and we'd be lucky to get a 40-yard net punt out of there, what are we doing if we give them the ball at our 40? They'd have a great chance to score again. So it's fourth-and-10. We've got three timeouts left, plus the two-minute warning. Four clock stoppages. If we can take the safety, punt it to them, then have four chances to stop the clock, we might have a chance to get the ball back and drive for a field goal. Then at least we've got overtime. I tell Brad to tell [long-snapper] Lonie Paxton to snap it way over the punter's head.

"Most of the time you'd think of doing this if you're ahead. You're up by six, or 10, or 11. There've been very few times, if ever, where you take a safety when you're actually behind. But think about it. There's not a lot of great options in that situation. I just figured, if you're down one or three, what's the big difference? You've still go to get at least a field goal. This just made the most sense."

Paxton snapped it off the goalpost. Ken Walter punted it to Denver's Deltha O'Neal, who let it bounce for too long and ended up getting stopped at his own 15. Denver's offense then went three and out. New England took over at its 42 with 2:15 to play. Tom Brady took the Pats 58 yards in six plays in 1:45, finishing with a touchdown pass to David Givens. Pats 30, Broncs 26.

Belichick couldn't have scripted it better if his last name were Spielberg. This was the kind of play that, when it happens, you yell at the TV: "Idiot! The Pats are screwed now!" Then you think about it and you say: "Hey, that was pretty smart." Then it works and you say: "Belichick's a friggin' genius." When the Patriots are playing at home on wild-card weekend, or they have a bye into the divisional round, it's that kind of stratagem that you'll be able to appreciate ... and part of the reason why the Patriots don't have to face the impossible dream of advancing to the Super Bowl as a wild-card road team.

The Fine Fifteen

1. Kansas City (9-0). Six straight games they've scored 30 points or more. And there isn't a great defensive team left on their 2003 schedule.

2. Tennessee (7-2). Really a dangerous team ... The Titans are 16-3 over their last 19 games.

3. Carolina (7-2). The Panthers have a three-game lead in the NFC South. They're 5-0 in division games. They've swept the two teams tied for second. They've beaten the Super Bowl champs twice. Quite literally, the Panthers have just about clinched this division, as weird as that seems.

4. New England (7-2). If life was fair, Belichick would have snuck away to his beloved Nantucket over the weekend. I'm guessing life's not fair.

5. Indianapolis (7-2). You can't lose to Jacksonville if you want to be a home team come January.

6. San Francisco (4-5). Be honest with yourself, Dennis Erickson. You know you can't give Jeff Garcia more than one additional bad week in the saddle. Tim Rattay just looked too good as your starting QB last week.

7. Dallas (7-2). Troy Hambrick's not really my cup of tea, but he'll have to do until the Cowboys can find a better upfield runner.

8. Green Bay (4-4). Ride Ahman Green till he drops tonight. That's my advice, Tom Rossley. But that's what you usually do anyway.

9. St. Louis (6-3). I've watched the Rams' last eight quarters. I don't like what I see very much. Pressure defenses really frustrate them.

10. Minnesota (6-3). I don't know what this team is anymore. Show me something, Daunte Culpepper.

11. Denver (5-4). Hurry up and heal, Jake Plummer.

12. Baltimore (5-4). On a scale of one to 10, that defensive performance last night was about a 9.8. Can any defense sustain suffocation like that? With five minutes left in St. Louis, they'd given up 96 yards! And 30 points! The theater of the absurd!

Miami (5-4). I'd say yesterday's 31-7 loss was the most embarrassing for this franchise since Dan Marino's last start, when the Jags hit them up for 60 points.

13. Tampa Bay (4-5). It is Nov. 10. The Detroit Lions are one game behind the Bucs in the wild-card standings.

14. Seattle (6-3). I wish there was something about this team I liked right now. I mean, I have the Seahawks higher than 18 teams.

15. Philadelphia (5-3). Great players play great in big games. This team needs Donovan McNabb to be a very big player tonight.

The Awards Section

Offensive Player of the Week

(tie) San Diego QB Doug Flutie, for his 248 passing yards, two touchdown passes and two touchdown runs in the Chargers' victory over Minnesota. If this doesn't scream that Flutie should play for the foreseeable future in San Diego, I don't know what does. This is a 41-year-old man who plays like he's 21. Amazing specimen.

Tennessee QB Steve McNair, for his masterful performance in the Titans' 31-7 win over Miami. His numbers -- 17 of 23, 201 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions -- were one thing. But just watching his offensive mastery showed me that there's no quarterback as capable of dominating a game through the air and as a runner in football today.

Defensive Player of the Week

Baltimore MLB Ray Lewis, for two tackles and a half a sack, one interception and overpowering presence at St. Louis. ESPN miked him during the game, and, besides being absolutely hilarious ("Don't you ever touch me! Don't you ever touch me!" he yelled to Rams guard Adam Timmerman during the third quarter), it showed the greatness and passion of the most compelling player in the game today.

Special Teams Player of the Week

Cleveland CB Chris Crocker, for a solitary play in the Browns' 41-20 loss in Kansas City. Crocker did something I haven't seen anyone do this year: he caught Kansas City kick returner Dante Hall from behind. It was a great play, too. Crocker came at Hall from the side, survived Hall's speed and dekes, and made a diving ankle tackle deep in Cleveland territory to prevent a touchdown.

Coach of the Week

Atlanta's Dan Reeves. Before Deion could step in and take his job, Reeves had to win his 200th career game. I have so much respect for Reeves. Yes, I think the Falcons should probably let him go after the season and start anew with a Nick Saban-type, but let's take a minute to appreciate what a good coach Reeves has been for such a long time.

Goat of the Week

Miami QB Brian Griese, whose two first-half fumbles gave Tennessee two short fields. Griese now has lost four fumbles in two weeks. As if that wasn't enough, he threw an interception that was returned for an 11-yard second-half TD by Titans cornerback Andre Dyson. A pathetic show in a really important game by the guy most of the Western World thinks should be the Fins' QB.

Stat of the Week

The Rams had 21 points and 35 yards at halftime last night. That's life in Turnoverville.

Factoid That May Interest Only Me

Last year's Super Bowl teams, Oakland and Tampa, are 2-9 since October dawned.

Quote of the Week

"They're only undefeated until they come in here. We will win. That's a guarantee."--Cincinnati wide receiver Chad Johnson, on next Sunday's matchup with the 9-0 Chiefs

Three Questions With ...

... Kansas City QB Trent Green, who is piloting the first team to go 9-0 since Denver in 1998, but who also found time to jet to New York last week to join the CBS guys on the set of The NFL Today. I'm cheating, though. I'm giving you three exchanges, plus this comment: "We're going to be a target every week with that undefeated thing going on. We're going to draw a lot of attention." Starting in MMQB ...

MMQB: Your thoughts on Deion Sanders saying he wanted to be a head coach?

Green: Once we went to commercial, I leaned over and said (to Deion), 'Do you realize how many hours these coaches spend at the stadium watching film and preparing gameplans?' He said he realizes it and he's serious about it.

MMQB: Would you hire Deion as a head coach?

Green: I don't have that authority.

MMQB: If you did?

Green: I'm not going there.

Enjoyable/Aggravating Travel Note of the Week

I have not spent a lot of time at Kinko's. But I must say that I enjoyed my time at that establishment in The Plaza in Kansas City, Mo. Thursday night. Because of problems with my laptop computer (that's a lie, really; I forgot my power cord at home and killed the battery on my turbulent trip out there), Kinko's was a necessary stop for four hours of work. With an agreeable decibel level of music (Coldplay, Sheryl Crow, Lenny "Nicole Kidman'' Kravitz, Elvis Presley, and lots of stuff I didn't know but didn't mind) playing in the background, I got two Sports Illustrated sidebars, some MMQB stuff and lots of e-mail-answering done. Nice wide desk, good PC, all for $43. Can't beat that with a stick.

One other Kansas City note: Ever notice that it's the hardest place to get to in the free world? Usually the little cropdusters are reserved for the Newark-to-Baltimore flights, and other 180-mile jobs. It is patently absurd to wedge us into one of those commuter shoeboxes for a 1,068-mile flight. I love you, Continental, but you've got to be kidding me.

From the E-mailbag

Wow. I screwed up last week, and you called me on it. About 50,000 of you, it seemed like. It makes me feel good, at least, to know that I have a lot of readers in Wisconsin.

Yes, I had brainlock and omitted Green Bay from the Fine Fifteen. A mistake. A careless omission. I will run one of your letters, but I could have included 93 of them.

PACKERS NATION IS OUTRAGED. From Tim Satran, of Mequon, Wis.: "I realize, given their defense, the Packers aren't among the elite of the league right now, but not even the top 15? Didn't you see them beat your No. 5 Vikes? Did you see them come ticks away from beating your No. 1 Chiefs? Based on that, as well as their performances against Seattle and Chicago, this team is better than at least four of your top 15.''

Agreed. I would have put the Pack ninth last week had I half a brain in my head.

YOU ARE A HALFWIT AND A LOON. From Matty, of Simsbury, Conn.: "You are crazy. Why not call your Fine Fifteen the 'Flavor of the Week Rankings'? The Niners are 4-5. They are not the sixth-best team in the league.''

MAILBAG

Peter King will answer selected user questions each week in Monday Morning Quarterback.

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Enter Your Question:

Matty, here's a question for you: Would you like me to rank the teams in the NFL strictly on the merit of their records? If so, there's not really a need to do rankings. If the San Francisco team I saw last week had played any but a select few teams -- Tennessee, Kansas City, Indy, maybe New England and Minnesota -- this past weekend on a neutral field, I think the Niners would have won. My opinion. They played the best game I've seen a team play this year against the Rams. And that's why I rated them sixth.

A GOOD QUESTION FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK. From James Weise, of Rochester, N.Y.: "In your opinion, who is the bigger problem with the Washington Redskins right now: Steve Spurrier or Daniel Snyder?''

Snyder. He has to get Ron Wolf in there as his GM, settle Spurrier's contract and get rid of him, let Wolf pick the next coach, and get the hell out of the way.

FREENEY FAN. From Andrew Rush, of Albany, N.Y. "Thanks for acknowledging what a great pro Dwight Freeney is becoming. As a Syracuse season-ticket holder I had the privilege of watching him dominate college football games, including the game he sacked Michael Vick four and a half times. Freeney is an excellent example of what I find to be one of the most frustrating aspects of NFL scouting -- people who fall in love with how tall a guy is, or how many reps of 225 pounds a guy can put up, but don't look at what the player has done on the field.''

Amen, brother. Great, great e-mail.

NOW THIS IS A BEAUTIFUL IDEA. From Aaron Nuti, of Cleveland: "I can't help but ask a draft question: Looking at the current standings do you think it's conceivable that Eli Manning could possibly be wearing silver and black next year?''

Doubtful, but I just talked to a college scout this week who told me Manning will go somewhere between fifth and 12th in the first round. Oakland will pick somewhere between fifth and 12th in the first round. I like the way you're thinking, but I believe Al Davis will go for the best available defensive player to shore up the league's 26th-rated D.

DR. SPOCK CHECKS IN. From Ahmed Taha, of Winston-Salem, N.C.: "I always enjoy your MMQB column. Last week, you asked why someone would take two near-babies on a redeye flight. The answer is that the alternative is worse. A 1-year-old or 2-year old child cannot sit still for a five-hour flight. They go stir crazy and annoy every passenger around them. Your only chance as a parent is to take them on a redeye and hope that they sleep through the flight; they usually do.''

Ahmed, I don't claim to be a child-rearing expert -- though I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. I have made my share of errors with my two kids. But let's look at the two ways of transporting a child by air to the East Coast from San Francisco -- flying at night or flying by day. Let's say a baby's bedtime is 8 p.m. in San Francisco. At 7:30, the kid is bundled into a car for the drive to the airport for the 10 p.m. redeye. The family parks at 8:20 and wakes the sleeping child, now the cranky sleeping child. They check in and wait at the gate. The kid is miserable. They get on the plane at 9:40 and try to settle in. The kid whines and cries. There's nothing to do but try to get the kid to sleep. Finally, at 11, the kid dozes. The kid sleeps for four hours. The plane gets to the gate at 3 a.m. Pacific, 6 a.m. Eastern. The kid gets to Grandma's house at 7:15 and is a basket case. They try to get the kid to sleep, but she's wired and can't sleep. Everyone's on edge. Now, the alternative is to bring the kid on the 1 p.m. flight, read to her, let her walk up and down the aisle, if she can walk, read to her some more, hope she naps for an hour, and then, when you land in Newark at about 9 at night, you're in pretty good shape for the kid to coo at Grandma for two hours, then go to sleep. Hopefully. I have traveled often with my kids on planes -- when they were very young, and when they were not so young -- and I would never, ever, ever have thought to make them endure a redeye flight and the misery of the day that would follow.

Ten Things I Think I Think

1. I think these are my quick-hit thoughts of the NFL weekend:

a. Tiki Barber, you can't be a great player if you're going to fumble that much. He had two more turnovers yesterday.

b. You have to see the touchdown grab Bucs receiver Keenan McCardell made yesterday at Carolina. What a great catch under such great pressure.

c. Jake Delhomme, you became a man on that last drive against the Bucs. Wow. Those were some really great, clutch throws.

d. One question, Raiders defense: Do you blame Bill Callahan for your first-grade tackling effort on the Santana Moss touchdown yesterday, too?

e. Every time the networks show the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders, it looks to me like they're wearing a few fewer centimeters of clothing.

f. David Boston showed yesterday he can be a great player. When he wants to be.

g. I don't want to be too harsh on the man, but I really think Travis Taylor is a bad NFL receiver. Three years of watching him miss catchable balls almost weekly makes me wonder why Brian Billick keeps throwing Taylor out there in vital situations every week.

h. Watching Kyle Boller throw a fade is like watching me try to be a ballerina.

i. Ricky Proehl's had a nice little career, hasn't he? He made his 595th NFL reception against the Bucs.

j. Anyone notice the Panthers have worn white, sky blue and black jerseys this year?

k. Robaire Smith. Ever heard of him? Tennessee defensive tackle. Always in the action. Great stuffer. Watch the Titans play, and you'll think he's one of the top handful of DTs in the game.

2. I think, for as critical I've been of Steve Spurrier, I have to hand it to him (and to his new play-caller, offensive coordinator Hue Jackson) for making one of the great calls of the season. Against the Seahawks yesterday, Redskins wideout Rod Gardner, a high school quarterback, caught a lateral from quarterback Patrick Ramsey, then found running back Trung Canidate for the winning 10-yard touchdown with 1:57 to go.

3. I think Warrick Dunn can play for my team anytime. It's not just the 178 yards rushing. It's the toughness he shows, week in and week out, as a little man in a battering big man's game.

4. I think there is no bigger indictment of a team's defensive personnel when a 2-6 opponent runs the ball on the first 21 plays of the game. The Jets were supposed to have solved their run defense problems with the addition of Dwayne Robertson at defensive tackle, and with the other defensive front-seven tinkering they did. But the Raiders ran on 19 consecutive plays, 82 yards, for a touchdown, in 10:58 of the first half. An 11-minute drive!

5. I think, for the first time, I got the feeling yesterday that it's the beginning of the end for Jim Fassel in New Jersey. There's no way a team would respond the way the Giants did against Atlanta with everything on the line (the playoffs now are a pipe dream for the Giants, who are three games out of the division lead) if they were still getting juice from their coach. As sad as it is for me to say -- how can you not like Fassel, one of the most decent men in the game? -- the Giants will probably have to start fresh with a tougher guy after the season. 6. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

a. I believe I am the only writer or reader of this column who will try to catch a few minutes of "Andy Griffith: Return to Mayberry" Tuesday night.

b. Coffeenerdness: The egg nog latte is back, and for that, I unveil the first coffeenerdness haiku of all time:

I love the autumn

Especially at Starbucks.

Egg nog latte! Now!

c. Montclair (N.J.) Field Hockey Note of the Week: Well, the only action of the week was a hastily scheduled 1-0 loss to Newark Academy on Friday. I could not attend. Thus, I will pretend it did not happen. Instead, I will look forward to the New Jersey Group IV, North I Sectional final Thursday (Montclair, 17-3, will play the winner of today's Randolph-Morristown game) with the first Montclair field hockey limerick of all time:

There once was a team from Montclair,

With 22 girls courageous, athletic and fair.

I journalistically favored senior midfielder Mary Beth King

Who, with her stick, took many a mighty swing.

Plus, she is smarter than the average bear.

d. There is nothing quite like driving into the Meadowlands parking lot on a Sunday morning, with Bruce Springsteen's "The Rising" turned up very loud on the CD player. I've never really considered myself a Jersey guy, but I think I do now.

d. Re: Gothika: Why in God's name would anyone creep-up Halle Berry?

f. The worst thing about NFL Sunday Ticket, which I monitored for six hours Sunday? You see the Elizabeth Smart TV-movie commercial 84,000 times.

7. I think this is the best example of how bad the Giants' special teams are: Have you seen one Brian Mitchell highlight run all season? I haven't. I saw first-hand at the Meadowlands why: the guy never has room to run.

8. I think I'm having serious doubts about the wisdom of counting on Drew Bledsoe to be a team's quarterback of the future.

9. I think sometimes I wonder what Marc Bulger is thinking. Did you see his throw into a mass of FOUR Ravens defenders in the first quarter last night? It was one of the most ridiculous throws by a competent passer I've ever seen. Bulger is too good to do that. But now I've seen him do it two weeks in a row. I still think Bulger's going to be an accurate, productive NFL quarterback and a quiet leader. The last couple of weeks, though, worry me about his tendency to throw into heavy traffic.

10. I think what Baltimore quarterback Kyle Boller needs to learn is that it's not enough to throw the ball in the general vicinity of his intended receiver. He needs to throw the ball where his receiver will have room to run after the catch. Last night, first quarter, third-and-seven, down 14-0, Boller swung a pass out to substitute back Chester Taylor. If the pass was thrown in front of him, somewhere in torso range, Taylor would have had five yards of free space and would almost certainly have converted the first down. But it was way high, Taylor barely corraled it, and he was snowed under by the time he got the ball settled in his arms.

11. I think I have two words for the Chiefs, headed to 4-5 Cincinnati (averaging 22 points per game) next Sunday: trap game.

Who I Like Tonight

Did you hear last week that Brett Favre cemented a splint to his broken right thumb, wrapped the thing and went out and played a heck of a game?

That's the difference between Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb right now. Favre breaks a thumb and plays masterfully, winning at Minnesota. McNabb bangs his thumb on a Buffalo helmet and isn't right for five weeks. I don't know what this has to do with anything. But I'm picking Green Bay, 24-16.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Monday Morning Quarterback appears in this space every week.

[OaktonSkins/BushFan]

I guess King either doesn't know or has forgotten that Wolf is one of Spurrier's greatest supporters in the NFL and even tried to recruit him as HC. King is a moron.

[@DCGoldPants]

Open Mouth, Insert Dick.

Get Lost King.

[Griff]

F!!!! Peter King. Fat Slob

[rdsknbill]

:lol: WELL SAID PHARAOH

[Nighthawk]

This is guy is truly an idiot.

10. Minnesota (6-3). I don't know what this team is anymore. Show me something, Daunte Culpepper.

Hmmm, let's see.

32 of 44, 370 yards, 4 TD's, 1 int.

What more do you want from the guy? I know he's built like a LB but he can't play both ways.

Idiot!

[jbooma]

Originally posted by Nighthawk

This is guy is truly an idiot.

10. Minnesota (6-3). I don't know what this team is anymore. Show me something, Daunte Culpepper.

Hmmm, let's see.

32 of 44, 370 yards, 4 TD's, 1 int.

What more do you want from the guy? I know he's built like a LB but he can't play both ways.

Idiot!

I know I was up 68 to 7 in my fantasy game this week, then Culpepper plays and gets 60 points

not it is 68-67

[jbooma]

A GOOD QUESTION FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK. From James Weise, of Rochester, N.Y.: "In your opinion, who is the bigger problem with the Washington Redskins right now: Steve Spurrier or Daniel Snyder?''

Snyder. He has to get Ron Wolf in there as his GM, settle Spurrier's contract and get rid of him, let Wolf pick the next coach, and get the hell out of the way.

I would love to see Wolf as the GM, but King, Wolf is a big fan of the OBC, IDIOT :laugh:

[jbooma]

King with a compliment :thud:

2. I think, for as critical I've been of Steve Spurrier, I have to hand it to him (and to his new play-caller, offensive coordinator Hue Jackson) for making one of the great calls of the season. Against the Seahawks yesterday, Redskins wideout Rod Gardner, a high school quarterback, caught a lateral from quarterback Patrick Ramsey, then found running back Trung Canidate for the winning 10-yard touchdown with 1:57 to go.

[G-Town]

I was waiting for him to say that the Skins won on some "trick" play and that did not deserve to win. I still hate the jerk!!!

[Canadian Hog]

King is a loser. Although he says it was a great call, he would have been the first idiot to criticize it had it not worked. The guy changes like the weather, and is waiting for another chance to bash us. I'll never like him.

[BayouBrave86]

F you Peter King. Nick Saban isn't going anywhere. I could understand that maybe if he was to win the National Championship this year, but if LSU doesn't, there is no way in hell he will get up and leave LSU and the ability to work with kids for a job with a bunch of overpaid babies. He was quoted saying something along the lines of that. Man I am really tired of all this Nick Saban leaving LSU, there is absolutely no reason he has to leave. LSU is primed to win a National Championship in the next few years. I wish everyone would stop assuming Nick is just going to leave. It is bullsh!t!