KC Joyner: Jared Gaither and Brandon Marshall Metrics

[gorebd82]

This is an interesting article with metrics about two names that have been associated with the Skins recently. I know they have each had theads dedicated to them, but I felt this article about both of them deserved its own thread.

That being said, both look like really good values for their current asking prices. From other rumors I've read through this board, it looks like we could acquire both of them without sacrificing our 1st rounder. I'm an official BoB member and would love to see us come out of this draft with Bradford, Gaither, and Brandon Marshall. These three players could catapult our passing game to an elite level.

I also decided to keep the info on Westbrook since he's a local guy and former Iggle.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=5046443

One side effect of moving the unrestricted free agent (UFA) bar from four to six years has been the increase in the potential interest around the league for restricted free agent (RFA) trade options and aging UFA veterans. The evidence for this can be found in the daily postings on the Insider Rumor Central section that detail the plethora of deals and signings of this nature that are being considered around the league.

While many of these potential transactions would be sensible, there are three that the numbers say would be slam-dunk winners.

The first of these is Baltimore Ravens LT Jared Gaither. Gaither has been a starter for the past two seasons, and in that time his metrics have been nothing short of superb. He has allowed only seven total sacks in 27 games and only one of these was a "one-on-one sack" (defined as when a defender beats a blocker in a one-on-one environment and tackles the quarterback in the pocket within three seconds of the snap).

That illustrates Gaither's dominant pass-blocking skills, but his run-blocking numbers are also quite notable. Gaither was at the point of attack (POA) on 300 running plays the past two years, and he won his block 255 times, or 85 percent of the time.

That is a solid number on its own, but his 2009 POA win rate of 89.0 percent is even more noteworthy. To put that total into perspective, consider that in a typical NFL season, fewer than one out of 10 offensive linemen will crack the 90 percent POA win mark. Gaither was on the precipice of that mark last year despite battling injuries.

Put these two factors together and it equals a truly elite blindside blocker. Add to this the question marks surrounding many of the left tackles in this year's draft and it means Gaither is hands down the best choice in the market at his position, especially since acquiring him reportedly will cost only a second-round pick.

Next up is Denver Broncos WR Brandon Marshall. Let's start by noting that Marshall is not an elite player on a per-pass basis. His 7.6 overall YPA last season ranked 49th among wideouts and his 9.5 vertical pass YPA ranked 55th. These totals are not anomalies in his career (he ranked 48th in overall YPA in 2008) and indicate he isn't close to the Andre Johnson/Reggie Wayne category.

Having said that, Marshall is an elite wideout in one area: endurance. For proof, consider that his 332 targets over the past two seasons is tops in the NFL, and he did that despite not playing in two contests. He is that rare type of wide receiver who can handle being thrown the ball around 10 times per game on a consistent week-to-week basis.

The negatives on Marshall have been well-documented (off-field legal issues, injuries and run-ins with the head coach) but they also come with the caveat that some of them are probably occurring because Marshall wants out of Denver. A change of scenery could be all that he needs to eliminate some of those negatives. The upside here means he is more than worth the second-round pick the Broncos reportedly are asking for him.

Last up is Philadelphia Eagles RB Brian Westbrook. The longtime Philadelphia Eagles great is obviously no longer the dominant back he used to be, but he did a more-than-adequate job last year. The evidence here comes via the "YPA on running plays with good blocking" metric. A study I did last year showed that elite runners gain 6 or more yards per carry on plays with good blocking, good running backs gain 5-6 YPC, and subpar ballcarriers gain fewer than 5 yards.

Westbrook had 44 runs last year when all of his blockers won their POA battles, and he gained 241 yards on those carries. That equates to 5.5 YPC, which places him lower than his accustomed elite status but still puts him well within the good running back category. The Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers would both do well to add him to their roster, as he would give them spot-play productivity that could prove invaluable for a team trying to make a Super Bowl run.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

the metrics on gaither are pretty meaningless because he doesnt fit our scheme. he is a road grating power blocker, not a guy that would work in a ZBS scheme.

and as well as marshall would fit here, its gonna take a lot of firepower to get him here, which we dont have, and frankly we dont need him right now.

[gorebd82]

the metrics on gaither are pretty meaningless because he doesnt fit our scheme. he is a road grating power blocker, not a guy that would work in a ZBS scheme.

I find it interesting that people are ruling out Gaither being successful in a ZBS. Its not like he's failed in that system in the past. Also, weren't people saying that Clady wouldn't fit a ZBS before he got drafted?

I also am not sure that we're going to have the same ZBS that Shanny had in Denver based on the fact that the Skins have kept Dockery and Rabach (who came from that same Baltimore pipeline) and that they seem to be high on Mike Williams and brought in Artis Hicks. All of those guys seem to be built for a power scheme.

Now I do think we will utilize ZBS, but will also have some power elements. But Gaither is very athletic for his size and his skillset seems to be in line with what we have in some of the other linemen on this team.

and as well as marshall would fit here, its gonna take a lot of firepower to get him here, which we dont have, and frankly we dont need him right now.

See, I think we do have enough ammo for Marshall because his stock continues to drop. I think we can send players for Marshall because it doesn't look like anyone willing to give picks to the Broncos. McDaniels will not go through another year of Marshall.

One rumor that I saw floating was Santana and Landry for Marshall. I don't know if that's going to happen, but the point is that we can put together attractive player packages. Where else could McDaniels get a lead, Pro Bowl WR to replace Marshall and add in a top 10 pick DB?

As I said before, I think we get these two players without giving up #4. Would it not be worth it to get Gaither and Marshall for #37, Moss and Landry?

[DarrellsMyHero28]

TK said the potential trade was Moss and Landry for Marshall but Landry didn't want to play for Denver.

[fdarugar]

If we could pull off Landry and Moss for Marshall and Gaither for our 2nd rounder I'd be extremely pumped.

[dfbovey]

TK said the potential trade was Moss and Landry for Marshall but Landry didn't want to play for Denver.

If the team truly wanted to get rid of him, where he wants to play doesn't mean much unless he has a no trade clause.

[jobaga]

I don't like Gaither. I think he has a questionable work ethic and will get lazy once he gets a big contract.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

I find it interesting that people are ruling out Gaither being successful in a ZBS. Its not like he's failed in that system in the past. Also, weren't people saying that Clady wouldn't fit a ZBS before he got drafted?

I also am not sure that we're going to have the same ZBS that Shanny had in Denver based on the fact that the Skins have kept Dockery and Rabach (who came from that same Baltimore pipeline) and that they seem to be high on Mike Williams and brought in Artis Hicks. All of those guys seem to be built for a power scheme.

Now I do think we will utilize ZBS, but will also have some power elements. But Gaither is very athletic for his size and his skillset seems to be in line with what we have in some of the other linemen on this team.

first of all, i just think hes too big. maybe clady was too, but gaither is an ogre of a man, and i just dont see him being nimble enough to run a ZBS. maybe im wrong, although i bet if he was worthwhile we'd have heard some sort of grumbling that we were truly interested.

you also have to consider why the ravens are willing to let him walk. usually franchise LTs get locked up just like QBs do so the fact that theyre willing to part with him should be somewhat of a red flag, especially considering the concerns about his work ethic coming out college.

so again, weve got a guy that isnt a natural ZBS with a 2nd round asking tag with potential work ethic issues. theres too much "what if" for this to work out IMO.

See, I think we do have enough ammo for Marshall because his stock continues to drop. I think we can send players for Marshall because it doesn't look like anyone willing to give picks to the Broncos. McDaniels will not go through another year of Marshall.

One rumor that I saw floating was Santana and Landry for Marshall. I don't know if that's going to happen, but the point is that we can put together attractive player packages. Where else could McDaniels get a lead, Pro Bowl WR to replace Marshall and add in a top 10 pick DB?

As I said before, I think we get these two players without giving up #4. Would it not be worth it to get Gaither and Marshall for #37, Moss and Landry?

marshall was tendered for a 1st and 3rd. so the picks are out the window. there are other teams who need receivers much more than we do with more fire power than we have. landry and moss for marshall is not happening. aside from TK posting that rumor here, ive not read it anywhere else, and usually a deal of that size, something would leak somewhere about it (if this was posted elsewhere, please link me).

marshall is a top 5-7 WR in this league, getting a saftey and a WR turning 30 are not gonna cut it for this trade. especially considering the packages that could be entertained from other teams.

and why would shanny want marshall? correct me if im wrong, but i remember shanny getting pretty fed up with marshall when he was in denver. why would he go out of his way to acquire a previous headache?

[dfbovey]

If we could pull off Landry and Moss for Marshall and Gaither for our 2nd rounder I'd be extremely pumped.

Potential future starting roster?

QB - Sam Bradford

RB - Clinton Portis/ Larry Johnson

TE - Chris Cooley

TE - Fred Davis

WR - Brandon Marshall

WR - Devin Thomas

LT - Jared Gaither

LG - Derrick Dockery

C - Casey Rabach

RG - Mike Williams

RT - Stephon Heyer or Artis Hicks

Would still need youth at RB, C and RT

[dfbovey]

you also have to consider why the ravens are willing to let him walk. usually franchise LTs get locked up just like QBs do so the fact that theyre willing to part with him should be somewhat of a red flag, especially considering the concerns about his work ethic coming out college.

The Ravens have a surplus of Left Tackles with Michael Oher being the guy they'd want to keep long term. Why keep Gaither if you can get value and start Oher in that position?

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

The Ravens have a surplus of Left Tackles with Michael Oher being the guy they'd want to keep long term. Why keep Gaither if you can get value and start Oher in that position?

because theyd still have RT to fill. and you dont just let good tackles walk. youd think with all the hulabaloo about oline around here, the idea of just letting a stud oline go for a mid draft pick would raise a few more eyebrows.

[dfbovey]

because theyd still have RT to fill. and you dont just let good tackles walk. youd think with all the hulabaloo about oline around here, the idea of just letting a stud oline go for a mid draft pick would raise a few more eyebrows.

They wouldn't just be letting him walk. They'd be trading him for value. Since when is a high 2nd round draft pick a mid round pick? In a deep draft like this one, it's practically a first rounder.

[gatorskin77]

If the team truly wanted to get rid of him, where he wants to play doesn't mean much unless he has a no trade clause.

And I've never heard of a no trade clause in a players rookie contract so I seriously doubt he has one.

[Vooskin]

Moss will be 31 already in two months. Half way to 32 by seasons end. =(

Being a speed receiver age affects his biggest attribute. I like moss but if we can get value for him then I say do it. There's a good chance he's not even on the team two years from now.

[gorebd82]

TK said the potential trade was Moss and Landry for Marshall but Landry didn't want to play for Denver.

If we could pull off Landry and Moss for Marshall and Gaither for our 2nd rounder I'd be extremely pumped.

Yeah, Landry has no say in this. McDaniels really needs some youth in that secondary. These deals make sense for everyone. Landry might be the only unhappy person in the situation, but learning from Champ and Dawkins would be really good for him.

first of all, i just think hes too big. maybe clady was too, but gaither is an ogre of a man, and i just dont see him being nimble enough to run a ZBS. maybe im wrong, although i bet if he was worthwhile we'd have heard some sort of grumbling that we were truly interested.

you also have to consider why the ravens are willing to let him walk. usually franchise LTs get locked up just like QBs do so the fact that theyre willing to part with him should be somewhat of a red flag, especially considering the concerns about his work ethic coming out college.

so again, weve got a guy that isnt a natural ZBS with a 2nd round asking tag with potential work ethic issues. theres too much "what if" for this to work out IMO.

All we can really go on is the fact that the Ravens already have Gaither on the block and that JLC has now twice thrown out there that we would explore Gaither. People are saying he's lazy and has questionable work ethic, but he's done enough to put up elite metrics. I'm not going to get caught up on his rep coming out of college when he's performed in the pros.

And as for concerns about why the Ravens will trade him, I think its simple. The Ravens found a franchise LT last year and now have two of them. They also have good young OL in the pipeline. With Gaither being an RFA, they eventually have to pay him. So do they want to pay LT money for a guy to play RT? Doubtful. The Ravens need to move him for payroll allocation purposes. Simple as that.

marshall was tendered for a 1st and 3rd. so the picks are out the window. there are other teams who need receivers much more than we do with more fire power than we have. landry and moss for marshall is not happening. aside from TK posting that rumor here, ive not read it anywhere else, and usually a deal of that size, something would leak somewhere about it (if this was posted elsewhere, please link me).

marshall is a top 5-7 WR in this league, getting a saftey and a WR turning 30 are not gonna cut it for this trade. especially considering the packages that could be entertained from other teams.

and why would shanny want marshall? correct me if im wrong, but i remember shanny getting pretty fed up with marshall when he was in denver. why would he go out of his way to acquire a previous headache?

First off, I trust what TK says. The teams that want to acquire Marshall may have more draft pick firepower than us, but obviously no one is willing to give up a 2nd for Marshall or he'd already be gone.

As far as offering players, Moss and Landry is a better player combo than the Seahawks, Jets, Bucs, Jaguars, Panthers, or Bears could offer. The Jets are the only team that can offer a lead WR, but they just traded for Braylon. No one else can really offer DB help or players that fit a 3-4 front.

If McDaniels gets Moss, he could draft Dez Bryant and the offense is now set. Bryant, Moss, Royal and Gaffney allow him to run those 4-WR sets in the Pats offense. His offense would be complete because he has Orton, Quinn, Moreno, and an offensive line. And he didn't have to pay Marshall, got value for him, and got rid of a headache.

As for Shanny, he had some run ins with Marshall, but Marshall's biggest issues seem to have been post-Shanny. Looking at how Shanny has treated Portis, I can see him willing to accept a Brandon Marshall that seems to be humbled by his issues, his run ins with McDaniels, and ultimately, his perspective after the Darrent Williams case. Like CP, Marshall will most likely be excited to get out from under his current coach and back under a Hall of Famer like Shanny. It seems that after players don't have Shanahan, they realize how much they miss him.

As for the Skins, Marshall is the type of lead WR we need. I can see Marshall and Kelly on the outside with Devin in the slot and as the lead KR. All three guys would be major mismatches. Devin has the speed to play the slot and would dominate nickel CBs. Our WR corp would also be huge with Marshall and Kelly both at about 6'4", 230 lbs. and Devin at 6'2", 225 lbs.

[Lavarleap56]

And I've never heard of a no trade clause in a players rookie contract so I seriously doubt he has one.

He doesnt have a no trade clause in his contract.

[apickmans]

He doesnt have a no trade clause in his contract.

LL,

youve always let us know how Landry feels about playing here. Have his feelings changed since Shanny took over?

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

They wouldn't just be letting him walk. They'd be trading him for value. Since when is a high 2nd round draft pick a mid round pick? In a deep draft like this one, it's practically a first rounder.

so when ive been advocating taking a tackle at #37, thats essentially a 1st round LT? sounds good to me!

and seriously tho, a 2nd rounder (which they probably wont get) is nowhere near close to the value of a legit franchise LT.

[dreamboater]

I don't think we should be letting go of Landry. Under the right coaching staff, which I now think we have, he can be elite.

[dfbovey]

so when ive been advocating taking a tackle at #37, thats essentially a 1st round LT? sounds good to me!

and seriously tho, a 2nd rounder (which they probably wont get) is nowhere near close to the value of a legit franchise LT.

There will be a lot of players taken in the 2nd round of this draft that have 1st round grades. If you look at the talent at tackle that's likely to be left there at the #37 spot, you just have to gauge whether Gaither is more appealing. A guy like Saffold will probably have a first round grade from some teams. Do you pick him or do you use that pick for a young player who's NFL proven? The proven player is potentially less of a gamble.

[Spartacus87]

I don't buy that Marshall just needs a change of scenery from Denver.

That completely ignores the trouble he got into while at UCF.

It's a recurring pattern with the guy, whether he's in Orlando or Denver. Going to a major city like Washington isn't going to clean his act up.

[The Rook]

I hate to spread rumors, but there may be a substance "issue" with Jared. Maybe this is a reason. :whoknows:

http://realredskins.com/2010/03/update-possible-issue-with-gaither/

:helmet:The Rook

[gorebd82]

As far as the Brandon Marshall package, I had an idea strike me. A lot of people won't like to hear it, but here goes. Since Landry might be the hang up, we might have to put together another package.

I think it would make a lot of sense to send Cooley, Moss, and Doughty for Brandon Marshall and Scheffler. One of the things that stood out to me about Marshall was the high number of receptions that he receives. Cooley is the same type of player that needs a lot of receptions. Making a trade for Marshall would probably somewhat hurt the effectiveness of both him and Cooley if they are in the same offense.

Moss would be a nice complement to Marshall since he doesn't need a lot of touches to make big plays, but his combination of age and trade value make him the logical WR to include. Doughty is a guy from Colorado and would be a nice DB to put next to Dawkins.

For us this makes sense because Cooley's presence will stifle Fred Davis' development because of how many touches Cooley needs, but Fred has a higher ceiling and could probably do more per catch than Cooley. At the same time, Scheffler is nice insurance and allows us to run the two TE sets. He provides more of the competition at TE like Shanny wants rather than the incumbent set in stone that Cooley creates.

I think that deal would be a win-win for everyone. I know people love Cooley, but if we get a younger stud in the deal then you can't really complain. We've seen what Marshall can do under Shanny. Marshall and Scheffler would be dying to get back under Shanny and would be great for helping others understand our offense.

[36HAMMER]

it sounds good and if the Shanahan likes Gaither and the oline coach does too then do it.if they can do it and get these two guys keep their fourth pick then they can either pick berry from tennesse or trade down and get mays and lb wetherspoon or mlb Mclain depending on what picks they get.

[jfriedenthal]

So.... I've seen this thread, and the JLC thread about Gaither and the Redskins.... is there ANYTHING out there actually linking us to him, or is it still all speculation? I tried combing through the threads, but couldn't find anything.