Top 8 Teams Unable to Sign Free Agents Next Year unless They Lose One.

[jflow78]

Yeah, and the majority of players in the NFL are back-ups and players in their first 4 years in the league. Good veteran starters who have hit Free Agency do not make 1 mil or less.

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That's just completely wrong. You are, I guess, looking at only salary, which has nothing to do with how much is actually paid.

http://www.altiusdirectory.com/Sports/nfl-salaries.php

The LOWEST team expenditure was KC, at 82 mil, or more than 1.5 mil per player on their roster.

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That averages less than 6 RFAs per team. Now subtract all the really good players who this won't apply to and all the really marginal players. That's a really narrow list of players who are going to be left. And a really small percentage of team's payrolls.

OK, let's look at one position form that list. I'll use RBs (the first one after QBs who are their own special case):

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There is just no way most of those players are non-tendered to save a few hundred grand. The only ones I would say are possible are: Kenneth Darby, Kolby Smith, Jason Snelling (unlikely), Danny Ware, DeShawn Wynn.

That's, as I said, a very marginal pool of talent. Nothing to be excited about at all.

Yeah, and Campbell, as a 5th year player who stayed 4 years in college and graduated high school at the age of 18.5, is on the upper end of RFAs, age-wise. As I said, the overwhelming majority of these RFAs will be 25-28.

You're just over-stating the case here. I watch the RFA tender list every year, and every year there are a couple of guys I find interesting for no compensation, or low compensation. But even those players are guys who are "sleeper" types and haven't done much. Really good players (really anyone who you would consider starting) get tendered at at least the 2nd round level.

For example, last year the Bengals (the epitome of small market, low payroll teams) gave 2nd round tenders to back-up LBs Brandon Johnson and Rashad Jeanty. Even guys like that from on a cheap team didn't come with no compensation.

Sorry, I'm trusting USA Today rather than altiusdirectory.com. And if you actually read what they describe as their salary numbers it DOES include bonuses, it's a long read, but it includes all the money players are paid. So, our sources disagree. I have to go with the news source, so we'll just agree to disagree, I guess. To me, it looks like the numbers that the altius directory site is using are including CBA money (television and ticket sales which is also split with players), which is the money that a team is allowed to pay beyond the salary cap. The numbers USA uses are for the money accounted UNDER the cap. Now, it won't matter because all that money will be the same anyway, either way, this RFA season still makes teams pay more for players they wouldn't normally have to pay as much too.

The only problem is, it sounds like you're ONLY accounting for the RFAs, the star UFAs are still going to demand top dollar, plus they'll be trying to pay 2-3 times the normal amount to good not great players they want to restrict. So, I'm not saying we're getting STAR players out of this, I'm saying the FA pool will be much bigger than it looks, some of the good players who are RFAs are going to get left without draft pick protection since it costs 1-2.5 million more than the "right to first refusal", and we'll be able to pick up some quality guys who can play for us, but would be a backup for teams like the Steelers or Patriots or whoever.

It's the guys you called "sleepers" that I'm talking about taking a look at. There will be MORE of those guys this year because there are 3 times as many RFAs this season. Those are they guys the Skins should be looking at, NOT the ones that are going to cost draft picks. I'm not talking about guys you or I are going to get pumped up over, I'm talking about the guys that our coaching staff will look at and think, "in our system, those guys can be better".

I agree the RFAs will be between 25-28, but I still don't see EVERY NFL team paying their 28 year old RFA 2 1/2 million this year, instead of trying to find someone 6 years younger who can do the same job, and might be better.

For the record, I wouldn't mind having one of these guys on our roster:

RB Ronnie Brown (Miami)

RB Le’Ron McClain (Baltimore)

RB Jerious Norwood (Atlanta)

RB Danny Ware (NY Giants)

RB Leon Washington (NY Jets)

RB Lendale White (Tennessee)

RB Cadillac Williams (Tampa Bay)

RB DeShawn Wynn (Green Bay)

I'm not saying this is an absolute thing, I'm just looking at all the information and giving my opinion, like you and everyone here. None of us can see the future, unfortunately.

[MrJL]

But that's what I'm saying, teams won't tender ALL the RFAs this season to a point that costs a draft pick (1.7 million at least for a 2nd round tender).

the only way it wouldn't cost a pick is if the guy you sign was an UDFA. The lowest tender gets you a pick in the round they were selected in.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Sorry, I'm trusting USA Today rather than altiusdirectory.com. And if you actually read what they describe as their salary numbers it DOES include bonuses, it's a long read, but it includes all the money players are paid. So, our sources disagree. I have to go with the news source, so we'll just agree to disagree, I guess. To me, it looks like the numbers that the altius directory site is using are including CBA money (television and ticket sales which is also split with players), which is the money that a team is allowed to pay beyond the salary cap. The numbers USA uses are for the money accounted UNDER the cap. Now, it won't matter because all that money will be the same anyway, either way, this RFA season still makes teams pay more for players they wouldn't normally have to pay as much too.

Fine.

http://content.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/salaries/totalpayroll.aspx?year=2009

The salary cap floor was around 114 mil last year, so it's kind of common sense that all the NFL teams were spending more than 1 mil per player.

I'm saying the FA pool will be much bigger than it looks, some of the good players who are RFAs are going to get left without draft pick protection since it costs 1-2.5 million more than the "right to first refusal", and we'll be able to pick up some quality guys who can play for us, but would be a backup for teams like the Steelers or Patriots or whoever.

You're basically making numbers up there. The right of first refusal for last year cost 1.01 mil, while the 2nd round tender was 1.545 I believe. You say you found a site that shows the 2nd round level will be 1.7 mil. Fine. But the ROFR level will go up, too. Even if it didn't, that's 700K, not 2.5 mil. That's what a team would save by giving only the First refusal level tender vs the 2nd round tender.

It's the guys you called "sleepers" that I'm talking about taking a look at. There will be MORE of those guys this year because there are 3 times as many RFAs this season. Those are they guys the Skins should be looking at, NOT the ones that are going to cost draft picks. I'm not talking about guys you or I are going to get pumped up over, I'm talking about the guys that our coaching staff will look at and think, "in our system, those guys can be better".

Yeah, there will probably be more. But that's a list that usually numbers 2-4 players I would have any interest in and those would be back-ups only. Still not going to be anything of much interest.

For the record, I wouldn't mind having one of these guys on our roster:

RB Ronnie Brown (Miami)

RB Le’Ron McClain (Baltimore)

RB Jerious Norwood (Atlanta)

RB Danny Ware (NY Giants)

RB Leon Washington (NY Jets)

RB Lendale White (Tennessee)

RB Cadillac Williams (Tampa Bay)

RB DeShawn Wynn (Green Bay)

Good for you. As I said, there is a chance Wynn or Ware could be non-tendered. The rest, no chance.

[MrJL]

The only problem is, it sounds like you're ONLY accounting for the RFAs, the star UFAs are still going to demand top dollar, plus they'll be trying to pay 2-3 times the normal amount to good not great players they want to restrict. So, I'm not saying we're getting STAR players out of this, I'm saying the FA pool will be much bigger than it looks, some of the good players who are RFAs are going to get left without draft pick protection since it costs 1-2.5 million more than the "right to first refusal", and we'll be able to pick up some quality guys who can play for us, but would be a backup for teams like the Steelers or Patriots or whoever.

looking at the lists I haven't seen many top quality players, let alone "stars" available in free agency this year. Most are RFA's. Combine that with the tags the teams can use there's going to be a lot of players who aren't in position to demand.

[jflow78]

Fine.

http://content.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/salaries/totalpayroll.aspx?year=2009

The salary cap floor was around 114 mil last year, so it's kind of common sense that all the NFL teams were spending more than 1 mil per player.

........

You're basically making numbers up there. The right of first refusal for last year cost 1.01 mil, while the 2nd round tender was 1.545 I believe. You say you found a site that shows the 2nd round level will be 1.7 mil. Fine. But the ROFR level will go up, too. Even if it didn't, that's 700K, not 2.5 mil. That's what a team would save by giving only the First refusal level tender vs the 2nd round tender.

.........

Yeah, there will probably be more. But that's a list that usually numbers 2-4 players I would have any interest in and those would be back-ups only. Still not going to be anything of much interest.

.......

Good for you. As I said, there is a chance Wynn or Ware could be non-tendered. The rest, no chance.

Good point about the salary cap, I was just saying teams, like the Skins, who are paying players like Haynesworth or Payton Manning or Tom Brady or their superstars, I don't think, are paying more than a million to most of their players. The Cardinals, on the same site, are paying only 18 of their players more 1 million or more, that doesn't even include all their starters.

http://content.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/salaries/teamdetail.aspx?team=1&year=2009

The very first link I gave was to a site called "ask the commish", it's got a pretty extensive explanation of the salary cap and the financial workings of the CBA. That's the initial site that said that I got the RFA tendering amounts from. You are right though, the initial costs I gave are actually cheeper than what they are now. When I said the RFA for a 1st and 3rd round tender was going to be 3 million (2.5 higher than the normal ROFR tender) was based on this:

"The player's original team maintains the Right of First Refusal and First Round Draft Selection and Third Round Draft Selection (both from the team with which he signs) if the team tenders an offer of one year at $2.792 million OR at least 110% of the player's prior year’s salary -- whichever is greater."

According to the other site I read, THAT number was 3 million last year, the "whichever is greater". Either way it's 2.8 million, so I'll correct my 2.5 and make it 2.3. ROFR isn't much of a deterent, it doesn't cost any team anything to TRY to sign a ROFR RFA, the only way teams can really protect their RFAs is with draft pick tenders, which are from about 1.7-3 million. Not what the average RFA makes in any given year.

Like you said, not many great players, but I'll take any one of those guys over Quinton Ganther as our starter next season, if that's what it comes to.

Anyway, it's been a good discussion man. It seems pretty rare for a discussion to last that long without name calling or slamming of one sort or another, so thanks for the discussion.

[jflow78]

looking at the lists I haven't seen many top quality players, let alone "stars" available in free agency this year. Most are RFA's. Combine that with the tags the teams can use there's going to be a lot of players who aren't in position to demand.

No, there really aren't. I wasn't trying to infer that we were going to be getting any stars in FA. I'm just hoping we can get some players who might prove to be better than what we've got. After all, I don't think it would take much to play better than any number of our OL, our RBs (especially if CP and LB can't come back from the injuries), or someone who can play well enough to let Orakpo move to DE, not a guy that's going to the Pro-Bowl next season.

[MrJL]

No, there really aren't. I wasn't trying to infer that we were going to be getting any stars in FA. I'm just hoping we can get some players who might prove to be better than what we've got. After all, I don't think it would take much to play better than any number of our OL, our RBs (especially if CP and LB can't come back from the injuries), or someone who can play well enough to let Orakpo move to DE, not a guy that's going to the Pro-Bowl next season.

Shanahan has had good luck with lower round guys so out running backs could be okay. Also one of his guys, Tatum Bell, is currently with the UFL so who knows maybe they'll try to pick him up.

[coolbeans]

I haven't seen it discussed here but the rule of 8 does not apply to players who are cut with years remaining on their contract. It only applies to players whose contract expired making them a UFA. That list will be pretty bare this year. The rule also doesn't impact the top 8 teams in re-signing their own free agents. S the top 8 teams can pretty much keep their teams totally intact and they can sign guys who are cut due to salary. If teams start dumping high salary players, they will be available to all teams so I doubt the top 8 teams will have trouble filling any hole they want to.

[dadirtbags]

i tip my hat off to all of this great info you all seeked out...thank you...ps...do you know why my brain hurts now after reading all of this?